The BBC is reporting that the SNP have halved Labour's majority in Glenrothes, but that still means that the Government has held the constiteuncy with a majority of about 5,000.
The Guardian is reporting almost that...repost from the last thread:
"I've never attended a count where the predictions have veered around so wildly. The SNP are now briefing that, on the basis of the figures that they've seen, they expect Labour to win by between 3,000 and 5,000 votes."
More serious comment - if Labour has really won by several thousand, it's a truly wonderful result in the circumstances. Everything I've said about the lack of canvass data and the deep pessimism of all the MPs I've talked to was true, so it'll be an astonishing success for Gordon, Sarah and the team up there. Frank Roy for the Cabinet!
Someone always knows, someone always tells, and it seems someone usually bets.
Labour suddely crashing from 3.5 down to 1.01? That was insider movement (not illegal, or in my view unethical) and must have come from the count.
I was a scrutineer in 2005, and if you are watching the counting (and have any experience counting cards at Blackjack) you can extrapolate a result by watching 50 votes in 20 random piles very quickly.
Why? He'd still lose. This By-election is so low profile that it really wont make a great deal of difference either way. The SNP will be left asking a lot of questions of themselves however.
The Tory comment that we were doing well in the 'wrong' boxes is interesting. On the one occasion I talked to the candidate and said I understood that Glenrothes town was the problem, he shook his head and said they'd had a very good reception there that day. So I wonder if the SNP grip on the town has weakened, rather than just diifferential turnout from the Labour loyalists in the small towns.
At any rate, perhaps some of our more exuberantly contemptuously anti-Labour Scottish posters (Easteross and MalcolmG spring to mind) will have pause for thought. To be fair, marcia has been cautious throughout.
Perhaps this shows, as has been suggested previously, that the swingback to Brown has come in the Labour heartlands. Hence they can save seats like Glenrothes. That doesn't neccessarily mean that he can win an election.
Well, this is a stunning victory for Brown. If he can win here, he can win anywhere. In my view, and I don't know why I'm saying this, I think Labour should call a GE. I don't want to give you ideas Nick, but the time is right. I for one would be worried sick.
On this evidence Labour is strengthening its position - in its heartlands. There's no evidence thus far that the Brown 'bounce' has been bought anywhere else. Hence whilst the SNP appear to have slumped in the Westminster polls the Tories has remained relatively consistent. That should probably check any other confidence on Brown's part.
Re the Labour price crashing on betfair ... that happened about a minute after the "Lab hold" was announced on BBC Scotland TV... it wasn't insider trading.
If the rumours are true, this is an excellent Tory result. Brown's position is cemented - which should be good news for the English marginals; the LDs are seriously wounded if they come third; and Salmond's bubble is pricked, strengthening Unionism and possibly improving the Tory Scottish position. A third place in a seat like Glenrothes is more than Cameron would have looked for.
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ReplyDeleteStephen Pound on Sky defending economy. Things must be worse than we thought. (He thinks retail sales are holding up well - yes really!)
ReplyDeleteThe Guardian is reporting almost that...repost from the last thread:
ReplyDelete"I've never attended a count where the predictions have veered around so wildly. The SNP are now briefing that, on the basis of the figures that they've seen, they expect Labour to win by between 3,000 and 5,000 votes."
So hang on - we've got predictions of SNP snatching it, then an hour later Labour winning by 5k?
ReplyDeletePut money on Labour, so either way I don't care
Congrats to Labour. I am irritated that I have been proved right: I have been predicting a Labour hold for a while. Ahem.
ReplyDeleteA Labour win will keep the Gordon narrative going strong. Still on the bright side the SNP haven't won.
ReplyDeleteMore serious comment - if Labour has really won by several thousand, it's a truly wonderful result in the circumstances. Everything I've said about the lack of canvass data and the deep pessimism of all the MPs I've talked to was true, so it'll be an astonishing success for Gordon, Sarah and the team up there. Frank Roy for the Cabinet!
ReplyDeleteNone of this seems to add up. The Lib Dem vote is said to have collaped, the Tories will be third yet Labour hold with a comfortable majority>
ReplyDeleteAll data from BBC Scotland:
ReplyDeleteTurnout: 52.37% (35,930 votes)
Estimates: SNP say "halved the majority". Using % terms that's 14.27% which equals 5,127.
Will this make Brown more likely to go to the country early?
ReplyDelete10664 majority halved (if it has) isn't exactly a great result for Brown in this seat.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to seeing the Emu in Parliament!
If the SNP have lost by the margin suggested then it's a truly awful night for them.
ReplyDeleteIf this was a seat in England, what would the equivalent be?
ReplyDeleteSomeone always knows, someone always tells, and it seems someone usually bets.
ReplyDeleteLabour suddely crashing from 3.5 down to 1.01? That was insider movement (not illegal, or in my view unethical) and must have come from the count.
I was a scrutineer in 2005, and if you are watching the counting (and have any experience counting cards at Blackjack) you can extrapolate a result by watching 50 votes in 20 random piles very quickly.
Why? He'd still lose. This By-election is so low profile that it really wont make a great deal of difference either way. The SNP will be left asking a lot of questions of themselves however.
ReplyDeleteme @ 23.44 - 'Will this make Brown more likely to go to the country early?'
ReplyDeleteOne can only hope.
Calamitous result for Salmond and, to a lesser extent, the SNP.
ReplyDeleteAll that bragging about a political earthquake from Wee Eck. Tut tut.
I disagree - a win by 5000 is a phenomenal result for Labour halfway through its third term, against the SNP only a few weeks after Glasgow East.
ReplyDeleteDoes this make an early election a possibility?
I put £10 on labour earlier on, looks like i might get my first win!!
ReplyDeleteThe Tory comment that we were doing well in the 'wrong' boxes is interesting. On the one occasion I talked to the candidate and said I understood that Glenrothes town was the problem, he shook his head and said they'd had a very good reception there that day. So I wonder if the SNP grip on the town has weakened, rather than just diifferential turnout from the Labour loyalists in the small towns.
ReplyDeleteAt any rate, perhaps some of our more exuberantly contemptuously anti-Labour Scottish posters (Easteross and MalcolmG spring to mind) will have pause for thought. To be fair, marcia has been cautious throughout.
I doubt it Morus, they wouldn't go to the polls in the run up to Xmas. Would they? Earliest time for the election has to be March.
ReplyDeleteEdp 23 46- lol
ReplyDeleteMorus- see my comment at 23 44. =)
Perhaps this shows, as has been suggested previously, that the swingback to Brown has come in the Labour heartlands. Hence they can save seats like Glenrothes. That doesn't neccessarily mean that he can win an election.
ReplyDeleteHow long to the decleration?
ReplyDeleteFFS, sort out yr bandwidth guys. No offence. This is a Scottish by-election, not the Papal Conclave.
ReplyDeletexx
snap election before christmas???
ReplyDeleteCould this be the first time ever that the PHI100 have been right?
ReplyDeleteDisastrous for Salmond, very poor for the country.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the media narrative is still on :(
MPs seem to have been closer than commentators.
ReplyDeleteThis seems to confirm the last Scots poll showing Labour well in lead over SNP in Westminster elections.
Meanwhile, Labour has regained the Glasgow East council seat vacated by the SNP winner of the Parliamentary by-election. Quite a night.
ReplyDeleteBetfair not quite convinced - you can still get 1.1 on Labour
ReplyDeleteWell, this is a stunning victory for Brown. If he can win here, he can win anywhere. In my view, and I don't know why I'm saying this, I think Labour should call a GE. I don't want to give you ideas Nick, but the time is right. I for one would be worried sick.
ReplyDeletepb1 is back up.
ReplyDeletethx, robert
On this evidence Labour is strengthening its position - in its heartlands. There's no evidence thus far that the Brown 'bounce' has been bought anywhere else. Hence whilst the SNP appear to have slumped in the Westminster polls the Tories has remained relatively consistent. That should probably check any other confidence on Brown's part.
ReplyDeleteBefore everyone gets too excited, what price were Labour as the Dunfermline returning officer mounted the stage?
ReplyDeleteRe the Labour price crashing on betfair ... that happened about a minute after the "Lab hold" was announced on BBC Scotland TV... it wasn't insider trading.
ReplyDeleteSorry to ask again - what is the equivalent constituency of Gentrothes in England ?
ReplyDeleteInteresting listening to Ming Campbell - supporting the Labour narrative better than Labour have so far.
ReplyDeletepb1 is back? not here.
ReplyDeleteyeah, is back. Got it now, thanks!
ReplyDeleteNo f**king way.
ReplyDeleteI've told everyone I work with that Labour would lose this by a thousand or more.
Don't know whether to be delighted that we might be a lot better or worried tht I'm going to look a total idiot as an election forecaster.
Anonymous at 23.55 How's Labour strengthening it's position when a majority is reduced? Eh?
ReplyDeleteOh, come on SeanT - we've had the American Election, and a quarter of a million hits in a day, and we were down for about ten minutes.
ReplyDeleteWe've been down for ten minutes tonight, because this is HUGE news!!!
PoliticalBetting.com (the main site) is back up and running
ReplyDeleteIf the rumours are true, this is an excellent Tory result. Brown's position is cemented - which should be good news for the English marginals; the LDs are seriously wounded if they come third; and Salmond's bubble is pricked, strengthening Unionism and possibly improving the Tory Scottish position. A third place in a seat like Glenrothes is more than Cameron would have looked for.
ReplyDelete