Big change on spreads

SportingIndex
CON 360-365 LAB 203-208 LD 53-56

But the TV "experts" project a Tory majority of just 4
A big gap has opened up this afternoon between the punters - those who back up their general election predictions with hard cash - and the TV academics who have been analysing the local election results.

So while SkyNews has been projecting, based on the handful of results in so far, a Conservative general election total 327 seats the Sporting Index spreads above have moved to 360 - 365, which is almost certainly the highest level since spread-betting of this kind started in the UK.

There's also been further movement in the Lib Dem spreads as gamblers see the greater potential for them following the decline of Labour.

So the SkyNews is talking about a Tory majority of just four seats - the mid-point betting prices suggest an overall majority of 75 seats.

I have to say that I simply do not get the SkyNew calculation given the drubbing that Labour has been getting up and down the country. And in any case local results, with the one exception on 1997, have been a pretty poor predictor of general election outcomes.

My sense is that the SPIN spreads, which are in response to market pressure (these things are not just invented by the bookies) are probably just on the high side - but that is all.

Clearly the local results have been affected by the concurrent Euro elections which have boosted the shares of the smaller parties - something that is much less likely to happen in a general election campaign.

Mike Smithson