Pirelli are to change their tyre compounds for Canada,
which is the race after Monaco:
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/108038.html
Now, the difference to the pecking order obviously depends
on how big the change is, but here’s how I see it playing out:
Winners - Red Bull, Mercedes
Losers - Lotus, Ferrari
If I’m right and Pirelli overcook the changes we could see a
very tight, interesting title race devolve into a Red Bull procession. I really
hope that doesn’t happen, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
During the Spain-Monaco interval I backed Red Bull for the
Constructors’ at 1.9, because I was green for Ferrari and Lotus and wanted to
cover that possibility. I also put small sums (NB this is not a tip) on
Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco.
Although 4 stops in Spain was excessive it’s worth pointing
out that every team has the same tyres and if Lotus have made theirs work very
well then fiddling with the compounds now is unfairly penalising them. For all
Red Bull’s bleating they are leading both title races.
As Gary Anderson wrote: “In 2011, Vettel won the Spanish
Grand Prix. He also made four pit stops and there were 77 pit stops in the
entire race. There were no complaints from Red Bull then.”
However, since then the FIA
has stated that changes to the tyres can only occur to help safety (in this
case reducing the risk of the dramatic delamination a few drivers have seen). So, with luck, this
will minimise the impact upon the pecking order.
It’s also been announced that in 2015 McLaren will switch to
Honda engines: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204
Many BBC chaps reckoned
that Mercedes could be the team to watch in Monaco, as the third sector of
Spain is apparently a very good guide to Monaco pace and the Silver Arrows were
fastest in that sector.
Your thoughts, tips and insights are all welcome in the
comments below. (NB P1 and P2 are on Thursday rather than Friday, as is the
norm for Monaco).
Morris Dancer
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I can see Monaco being good for Mercedes and, at a push, Williams (at least compared to their recent performances).
ReplyDeleteFor TV spectators, it will be fairly uninteresting as usual. It's the one race in the year I really do not mind missing.
Any true sport would have removed Monaco from the calender decades ago. But the business side of F1 demands it.
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In my initial "early bird" search for value at Monaco, I've placed two modest bets.
ReplyDeleteFirst I've backed Di Resta for a top 6 finish at odds of 2.95/1 net with Betfair, compared with the major bookies offerings at half those odds.
Second I've backed Vettel to win the "Hat Trick"(i.e.win the GP, gain Pole and achieve the fastest lap) at 18/1 with Skybet. As the inevitable race favourite, this looks like more of a 12/1 shot to me.
I'd like to back Perez to finish in the points (i.e. top 10) - but I'll hold my fire for now in the hope of obtaining evens, compared with Hills' current best odds of 0.85/1.
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Di Resta's a maybe for me, but I'd not back your Vettel tip. Perez looks interesting. Here's the Spain sector 3 times, apparently a good guide to Monaco:
http://www.formula1.com/results/season/2013/897/7298/best_sector_times.html
Perez is 4th, behind only the Mercedes and Vettel.
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I seems that I'm unlikely to be able to get evens on Perez finishing in the points so I've taken Ladbrokes' 10/11 this a.m. - a slight improvement on yesterday's best available odds of 0.85/1.
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