tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post25879639141667159..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: Bahrain: post-race analysis and title thoughtsMike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-79111285714970487672010-03-16T11:55:25.600+00:002010-03-16T11:55:25.600+00:00Webber is like Coulthard. Occasional race winner, ...Webber is like Coulthard. Occasional race winner, but not in the first class, certainly not when facing the likes of Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton. His team mate is a class act, Webber's leader of the midfield, no more than that.<br /><br />On Red Bull development, I slightly share the view on development (they were competitive for all of 2009, though that may not be a good season to use as an example) but the big issue for me is reliability. With a reliable car, Vettel would have won last year. It's early days, but Bahrain isn't a good start.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-49581879202029097032010-03-16T11:01:57.965+00:002010-03-16T11:01:57.965+00:00Interesting how long odds Webber is now. Still can...Interesting how long odds Webber is now. Still can't bring myself to back him though, as he never seems to pull it all together in a race. I've been looking at the fastest laps in Bahrain and was quite surprised to see him 3rd. (A few others surprised me too).<br /><br />The Ferrari price for the constructors championship seems to me to be verging on the too short area - have laid a little bit, but hard to argue with Alonso's performance.<br /><br />One issue that might be interesting for Melbourne is that given the lack of race action I guess we'll see even more intense qualifying - I wonder if we'll see some casualties from people pushing too hard.Omniumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-37705802597713005482010-03-16T08:52:43.286+00:002010-03-16T08:52:43.286+00:00Hi, Morris. Enjoyable article (rather more so than...Hi, Morris. Enjoyable article (rather more so than the GP itself).<br /><br />I rate Vettel very highly indeed. On sheer ability, I think it's very difficult to judge between him, Hamilton and Alonso.<br /><br />I just don't think he'll be champion this year. Reliability, and more importantly the superior development ability of Maclaren and Ferrari, are likely to count against him.<br />Of course, I could be wrong - but you can't profitably bet on everyone (usually).Nigelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18171835878570773595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-30110178703839477272010-03-16T07:40:31.875+00:002010-03-16T07:40:31.875+00:00Interesting, Nigel, that like Peter you don't ...Interesting, Nigel, that like Peter you don't rate Vettel as much as me. Or is it doubts over his car that make you think he has little chance of the title?<br /><br />Another British win would be great, though we should probably let another country have it this time. Massa or Vettel would be nice.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-61359519623983470982010-03-15T21:49:58.563+00:002010-03-15T21:49:58.563+00:00I bet fairly large on Maclaren ahead of Bahrain, b...I bet fairly large on Maclaren ahead of Bahrain, but fortunately got spooked by Hamilton reporting during practice that he had cooked the hard tires in just four laps.<br /><br />Hedged my bets, and put a bit of (though not enough) cash on Alonso.<br /><br />I'm adopting a similar approach for the championship. I'll make good money if Hamilton wins (8:1 on Sunday night was too good to resist), decent money if it's Alonso - and I'll be surprised, and a bit worse off, if it's Vettel.<br /><br />Saving most of my cash to bet on individual races, though. They ought to get easier to predict.Nigelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18171835878570773595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-40015517916378504492010-03-15T12:22:28.685+00:002010-03-15T12:22:28.685+00:00With any luck we'll see that sort of strategic...With any luck we'll see that sort of strategic gambit at Australia. If Bahrain is the template for the season then by banning refuelling the sport will have managed to make what should be an epic year of 4 champions and 8 competitive teams into a dreary series of processions.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-64398789443024550542010-03-15T12:01:23.501+00:002010-03-15T12:01:23.501+00:00Actually I was surprised that towards the close of...Actually I was surprised that towards the close of the race noone tried diving in for some fresh soft tyres. They were lapping at around 2:00 and qualifying was several seconds ahead of that, so if you could get say 10 laps of fast times out of new tyres then it struck me that it would be a good thing to try.Omniumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-51175970188719901042010-03-15T11:47:18.003+00:002010-03-15T11:47:18.003+00:00Schumacher's not the only driver to voice conc...Schumacher's not the only driver to voice concerns. However, Prost reckons that it's because it's such a big adjustment, and that in a few races the drivers will be used to it and the races will get better.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-33604861186858353382010-03-15T10:15:11.288+00:002010-03-15T10:15:11.288+00:00The lack of overtaking yesterday was rather disapp...The lack of overtaking yesterday was rather disappointing and backed up by Schumachers comments. Although I hadn't expected a lot of action I had hoped we'd get some.<br /><br />For me it was a real shame that Sutil managed to get caught up in the aftermath of Webbers cloud of smoke. Having the hard tires with a decent car underneath him had given me hope that he'd make some decent progress.<br /><br />Ferrari did look pretty solid and Vettel was very impressive.<br /><br />Unless Mercedes and Maclaren were holding something back yesterday - which is entirely possible given that it was the first race and it was so hot, then it seems we may be looking at a battle between Alonso and Vettel.<br /><br />I had a large bet (500) on Rosberg for the championship, but I've reversed almost all of that now - I thought he did well and I still like the idea that Mercedes will improve (Schumacher getting to parity with Rosberg over next couple of races) but there is a bigger gap than I thought.<br /><br />I'm now all green, with a big win if Sutil suddenly finds a jet engine for the rest of the season.<br /><br />I agree Lotus did spectacularly well and would love to see them up in the mix at the front later in the year.Omniumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-30743432412302426852010-03-15T07:55:22.677+00:002010-03-15T07:55:22.677+00:00Car matters more than driver. The Red Bull was sec...Car matters more than driver. The Red Bull was second best throughout last season, first to Brawn, then to McLaren. Hamilton had the best car when he did best, whereas Vettel had huge reliability issues (at one point he was second in the title race despite finishing only 60% of races). If the Red Bull stops exploding all the time, Vettel can win this year.<br /><br />Those bets sound reasonable, but given how up and down last season was I'm just going to stick with my position (ie backing Massa at 11/1 and 17/1 with small sums).Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-81624556471647457242010-03-14T21:25:36.611+00:002010-03-14T21:25:36.611+00:00Morris - I hope I haven't underestimated Seb V...Morris - I hope I haven't underestimated Seb Vittel, like you, I think he's a great driver, but I fear he will suffer the same reliability problems as last year. Let's not forget either that Lewis Hamilton was the top points scorer in the second half of last season so shouldn't be overlooked. Arguably the best F1 driver ever should not be discounted either.<br />I've just placed my bets (for now) - £15 on Ferrari at 9/10 with the Tote to win the Constructors and £10 on Alonso at 6/4 net with Betfair to win the Drivers.<br />If one or other wins I'm quits, if they both win I'm up £28.50<br />Rather sad to see Button quoted at almost 30/1 on Betfair - the market clearly thinks his time has past.Peter from Putneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04133613985279722397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-22146292535756018522010-03-14T20:27:15.949+00:002010-03-14T20:27:15.949+00:00Peter, I think you underestimate Vettel. He's ...Peter, I think you underestimate Vettel. He's the best driver on the grid. If the car doesn't keep breaking he should win.<br /><br />I do agree Alonso should be favourite, he's in the top 3 (the above two plus Hamilton) and has a fast and reliable car.<br /><br />Massa had some sort of issue with his car, and was still a strong second. He has an uphill battle, but should be third favourite now, with Vettel second and Hamilton fourth, in my view.<br /><br />Bunnco, you're right that I omitted all mention of the new teams and the midfield. It wasn't intentional, I just had my focus on the top 4 teams (as well as Barrichello, whom I backed).<br /><br />I feel rather sorry for Chandhok, who seems a splendid fellow, and likewise Senna, who had to essentially run the race as a test session. I hope Virgin, Lotus and HRT [stupid acronym...] can improve and play a part in the midfield, or even challenge for the podium. It's not so long ago Red Bull debuted, and until last season Force India were nowhere really. Let's hope the new teams can get competitive sooner rather than later.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-91698240209170402392010-03-14T20:03:41.261+00:002010-03-14T20:03:41.261+00:00My thoughts after the first race are that the F1 c...My thoughts after the first race are that the F1 champion for 2010 will be one of the following 3 drivers (incl their % probability imho):<br /><br />Alonso 45%<br /><br />Hamilton 25%<br /><br />Vittell 15%<br /><br />Other 15%<br /><br />I would have included Massa in this short list, but frankly I don't see him overcoming Alonso at Ferrari. He would probably rate about 7.5%, ie half of the "Other". I don't see anyone else having a realistic chance, but then this time last year, unlike you, I didn't think Button had any chance.Peter from Putneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04133613985279722397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-88489096505436184392010-03-14T19:48:50.471+00:002010-03-14T19:48:50.471+00:00Nice article Morris. But it's a shame you did...Nice article Morris. But it's a shame you didn't highlight the tremendous achievement from Norfolk-based Lotus, both of whose cars finished on their first outing. This from the Eastern Daily Press<br /><br /><i>The happiest man of all, though, was team principal Tony Fernandes who said “I'm completely over the moon! I cannot describe the feeling. Six months of work and to have both cars finish is just unbelievable. We're thrilled, we're happy and the spirit in the team is fantastic. I'm really proud of Jarno and of Heikki and everyone here. It's a great start and better than I could have dreamt of. We wanted to finish the race and to do so ahead of established teams is fantastic.<br /><br />“From here we keep going. Before the race Clive Chapman gave me Colin Chapman's old Lotus cap and said 'when you win the first race you'll be the man to throw this up in the air like my Dad used to.' That meant a lot to me, it was a wonderful gesture and it's like handing over the mantle of one of motor racing's great dynasties.”</i><br /><br />Lotus is a Great British marque and are placing a lot of emphasis on this season to set the scene for an ambitious expansion program. One to watch.bunncohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06768612455017655264noreply@blogger.com