tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post391130206225456125..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: Seat Calculators, UNS and the 2010 General electionMike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-40055706712559590152010-05-27T13:13:43.804+01:002010-05-27T13:13:43.804+01:00Not sure what went wrong there
Barrow and the se...Not sure what went wrong there<br /> Barrow and the seats listed after it should appear after Staffs S and NOT after Nottingham EastMark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482009878893889107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-32128663287575326082010-05-27T13:09:41.347+01:002010-05-27T13:09:41.347+01:00There were 37 seats in England and Wales where the...There were 37 seats in England and Wales where the Labour share of the vote in 2010 increased compared to the 2005 GE .<br /> 2 of these Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill can be attributed at least in part to unravelling of byelections in the previous Parliament . 4 in East London at least in part to the fall in Respect vote . Blaenau Gwent is clearly a special case .<br /> The remaining seats were distributed <br /> 5 in Liverpool/Merseyside<br /> 12 in North London not including the 4 East End seats .<br /> 3 in South Central London<br /> 2 in Birmingham <br /> Luton N<br /> Staffs S<br /> <br /> 10 further seats saw a fall in the Labour vote share of less than 3% of their 2005 vote <br /> 2 in North London<br /> 1 in South London<br /> 1 in Merseyside<br /> Slough<br /> Preston<br /> Bolton NE<br /> Manchester Withington<br /> Copeland<br /> Nottingham E<br /> Barrow<br /> Blackburn<br /> Bradford W<br /> Oxford E<br /> and perhaps bizarrely<br /> Haltemprice<br /> OrpingtonMark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482009878893889107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-16045263155073877672010-05-26T23:14:28.037+01:002010-05-26T23:14:28.037+01:00Great stuff, Andy. An article to save and study i...Great stuff, Andy. An article to save and study in detail.Richard Nabavihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528980060497008785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-57307167451277249612010-05-26T22:08:23.898+01:002010-05-26T22:08:23.898+01:00Okay, fair one - I didn't pick that up from yo...Okay, fair one - I didn't pick that up from your initial post.<br />Yep - why the factors associated with the incumbency boost look fairly entangled - ethnicity and demographics definitely, and regional effects at this level. Possibly flavour of local councils coupled with popularity/unpopularity of the same?Andy Cookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827254192797927573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-83651281921419055192010-05-26T21:57:03.631+01:002010-05-26T21:57:03.631+01:00Andy , I still think you are being a bit simplisti...Andy , I still think you are being a bit simplistic in saying that Labour had a noticeable incumbency boost . That boost depended to a large extent on where the seat was geographically nore than even whether Labour actually held the seat . Gloucester , Dorset South and Rugby for example saw the Labour vote share fall by 26/27% , Bassetlaw , Cardiff N and Brent N for example saw the Labour vote fall by only 4/5% from it's 2005 level .<br /> Certainly there is some evidence that this is partly connected to Labour's vote holding up better or even increasing amongst ethnic voters but there is more work to be done on this factor .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482009878893889107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-57282512187265284522010-05-26T21:30:14.984+01:002010-05-26T21:30:14.984+01:00I thought I had mentioned the Labour vote holding ...I thought I had mentioned the Labour vote holding up in England ... (checks):<br /><br />"In England as a whole, they defended very well, getting a noticeable incumbency boost "<br /><br />Maybe I could have emphasised it a bit more - possibly I shaved off some more expansion on that as it was already getting way too long. I think you're right with the surprising Labour vote share hold-up in their core stymieing the Lib Dem attacks. I do wonder if the Lib Dem targetting overreached and was blunted by that (I'm thinking of places like Oxford, where the attack on Oxford East was parried but might have left OxWAB vulnerable).<br />London was a real surprise - most London polling suggested a similar swing to the rest of England, IIRC (might be wrong there)Andy Cookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827254192797927573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-45672734521136696802010-05-26T20:44:29.360+01:002010-05-26T20:44:29.360+01:00Pretty much agree with your findings though it is ...Pretty much agree with your findings though it is a little surprising that you do not mention the clear tendency for the Labour vote share to have held up better and even increased in the seats they already held even in England . Although Baxter eventually modified his UPS forecast model I have no doubt that it would have proved to be totally inaccurate in forecasting the results of the 2010 GE as it would not have coped with the Labour vote share actually increasing or falling by a miniscule amount in much of Merseyside Birmingham and parts of London where the main bulk of Labour seats are and dropping like a stone where there were few or no Labour seats much of Southern Eastern South West and rural Midlands .<br /> Much but not all of the failure of the LibDems to capture target Labour seats was caused by the Labour vote holding up better in the Metropolitan areas .<br /> I think I am correct in saying that no opinion poll predicted the Labour vote holding up well in these areas or in much of London although there were polls suggesting the Labour vote would increase in Scotland . Indeed some polls suggested that the Conservatives would do exceptionally well in the West Midlands but this proved not to be true in the urban areas there .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482009878893889107noreply@blogger.com