tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post4579382406604641391..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: Waves on the Electoral Tide – a punters guideMike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-18895613692371862802009-08-23T14:02:37.521+01:002009-08-23T14:02:37.521+01:00Good article. Sorry I missed it.
Some time ago, I...Good article. Sorry I missed it.<br /><br />Some time ago, I condensed Andy's table into a simple interactive Excel widget.<br /><br />www.titanictown.plus.com/seatchance.xlsRodCrosbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-12796167979542843652009-08-16T17:18:11.158+01:002009-08-16T17:18:11.158+01:00Andy - I very much look forward to your analysis b...Andy - I very much look forward to your analysis by category of seat. <br /><br />Assuming you do find systematic differences, it would be particularly interesting to see if they are consistent with the VIPA approach. Although for old elections we don't have the base opinion-poll data on switchers between parties, I think you could infer that post-hoc.<br /><br />Of course, that wouldn't prove that the VIPA approach is right, but it might provide some indication one way or the other.Richard Nabavihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528980060497008785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-8326036494405766362009-08-15T22:52:57.808+01:002009-08-15T22:52:57.808+01:00(Have been out all day - just getting back)
First...(Have been out all day - just getting back)<br /><br />First, thanks for the comments - much appreciated.<br />Secondly - Edward - yes, you're right (and pedantic :-) ), I was using "mainland" merely as shorthand for "Con/Lab/LD/Other" battlegrounds. And Peter is also right, it should be 632 (I was using my spreadsheet and the last row was 633 - but the first row was a headings row. Oops.<br /><br />Richard Nabavi - my feeling is that tactical voting would be an element of the targetting effect and act to "shift the tide" in the battleground seats - the waves would be overlain. And I agree that we need to try to estimate these. I'm part way through a more detailed analysis of the differences in swings in LD/Con, Lab/Con, Lab/LD seats under "supermarginal", "Marginal", "regular" and "safe" categories over those elections to try to see how these effects have manifested over the past 5 elections. Still early days yet, but the effects of targetting and tactical voting are rather noticeable (working out how to forecast them is not so easy, sadly)Andy Cookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827254192797927573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-88092002601584974342009-08-15T22:28:39.452+01:002009-08-15T22:28:39.452+01:00A most interesting article which takes me back to ...A most interesting article which takes me back to my schooldays when I learned about Standard Deviation.<br />However forgive me if I am wrong but surely there 632 mainland constituencies (and 18 Northern Ielad ones)?Peter Election Followernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-58612201770698127032009-08-15T18:18:15.338+01:002009-08-15T18:18:15.338+01:00Andy, great article, just a pity it wont help me w...Andy, great article, just a pity it wont help me with my election betting as I only bet on eats where I have a reasonably clear idea about the "runners and riders".<br /><br />Funny Curtice is good at this sort of thing because he hasn't a clue about Scottish politics.Easterrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12226904867569945101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-11306755816763336262009-08-15T16:04:01.762+01:002009-08-15T16:04:01.762+01:00Four island constituencies, surely?
Na-eileanan a...Four island constituencies, surely?<br /><br />Na-eileanan an Iar<br />Orkney and Shetland<br />Ynys Mon<br />Isle of WightRichard Gadsdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545595590359552775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-37244910096637984282009-08-15T15:43:32.548+01:002009-08-15T15:43:32.548+01:00Superb, Andy. This is exactly the kind of detaile...Superb, Andy. This is exactly the kind of detailed insight we need, thank you. (PB2 is becoming a superb reference site!)<br /><br />A couple of points which struck me:<br /><br />(1) There is an implicit assumption here that variations from UNS are either random, or due to constituency-specific effects (which appear random if you look at the whole population of seats simply as numbers). <br /><br />However, there may also be <i>systematic</i> factors which could potentially cause variance from UNS. Three obvious ones are tactical voting, differential switching from previous election (as per VIPA), and regional variations. We need to figure out how best to estimate these, since this would help evaluate betting value. <br /><br />(2) Presumably if you bet on a sufficiently wide and diverse set of individual constituencies, you will largely eliminate random variations in swing.Richard Nabavihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528980060497008785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-35246775953092755992009-08-15T13:37:19.562+01:002009-08-15T13:37:19.562+01:00Great post with great use of statistics to confirm...Great post with great use of statistics to confirm something I had suspected. On a mildly humorous point of pedantry, though, 3 of those 633 "mainland" constituencies aren't on the mainland at all!Edward Gaffneyhttp://www.edwardgaffney.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-66780292740020456802009-08-15T11:38:48.430+01:002009-08-15T11:38:48.430+01:00This is a terrifically helpful piece for those of ...This is a terrifically helpful piece for those of us whose daily use of statistics stopped many years ago. I shall consider it with care. Many many thanks.<br /><br /><b> antifrank </b>Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11551605492626333385noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-26163696519580447202009-08-15T11:32:02.910+01:002009-08-15T11:32:02.910+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Andy Cookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827254192797927573noreply@blogger.com