tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post7371093557981766592..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: The Welsh Marginals - part 1Mike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-71491133771079328712009-11-12T13:25:19.823+00:002009-11-12T13:25:19.823+00:00I see where you're coming from, Mark, and you ...I see where you're coming from, Mark, and you can point to some places in Wales where the 04 euro results were way off the 05 generals (although in most areas a comparison is impossible as they were counted by local authority in 04, by constituency in 09).<br />But I do find it interesting that Labour did significantly worse right across north Wales than they did in some other seats which Conservatives are getting excited about (e.g. Newport West).<br />The main reason I'm hedging a bit on Clwyd South isn't the Euros, but that I think the effect of the boundary changes are more helpful to Labour than might appear.<br />But if the polls don't improve, I think Labour might indeed be looking at holding just 1 or 2 seats in the north.Meurighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11411251021592439403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-29464909306469165202009-11-12T13:16:39.651+00:002009-11-12T13:16:39.651+00:00Although it is often claimed that "incumbents...Although it is often claimed that "incumbents have never lost" in Ynys Mon, it isn't strictly true.<br /><br />Lady Megan Lloyd-George lost as the sitting MP in 1951.<br /><br />And I expect Albert Owen will lose in 2009.Gwynfanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-86977495895459867372009-11-12T12:57:16.078+00:002009-11-12T12:57:16.078+00:00Nothing in your analysis and conclusions that I wo...Nothing in your analysis and conclusions that I would disagree with except that , as in the rest of the UK , you are wrong to put any relevance on the Euro votes . Assembly votes Yes , the 2008 locals Yes but as in 2004/2005 the Euro results will bare no relationship to the GE result .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482009878893889107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-79306588756707050122009-11-12T10:28:50.732+00:002009-11-12T10:28:50.732+00:00This is really good analysis which should be on th...This is really good analysis which should be on the main site. I found myself nodding along with most of the comments. They chime with my thinking. I would suggest that an Ynys Mon contest with Peter Rogers having reached rapprochment with the Tories to be a likely Tory win. Other than that I have pretty much got the Tories to win most of these seats based on Labour's vote collapsing. Alyn and Deesside is the interesting one. I have been writing for 4 years about how astonishing it is that Labour have such a lead in this very Cheshire-like seat. I really think the Tory tide could swallow this seat and, if it does, it would really show the size of Labour's collapse. The only one of these seats I really think Labour will have is Wrexham.David Roenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-17305227571832624302009-11-12T09:56:04.389+00:002009-11-12T09:56:04.389+00:00I received this via RSS and the print is so small ...I received this via RSS and the print is so small I can hardly read it even with my glasses on. Sorry to post this here but I couldn't find an email address on the site.It Will Come to Mehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06199226174239193003noreply@blogger.com