tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post7706673165875210541..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: China: post-race analysisMike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-19535267493119428042012-04-18T18:15:00.269+01:002012-04-18T18:15:00.269+01:00Hmm, you might be right.
Annoyingly, this means ...Hmm, you might be right. <br /><br />Annoyingly, this means I'm not.<br /><br />One thing we haven't mentioned is the W-duct. I don't know how significant that is, but I believe it's meant to optimise the front wing (more grip in corners but less drag on the straights) and that might help the Mercedes DRS as well.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-22971184061997842772012-04-18T15:35:38.462+01:002012-04-18T15:35:38.462+01:00"I think that, as having the super DRS increa..."I think that, as having the super DRS increases the difference between the car in qualifying and the race, it may make a compromise setup hard to achieve."<br /><br />Again, with respect, I think that's wrong.<br /><br />Conventional DRS alters the balance of the car by stalling the rear wing. The front end retains downforce, so if you try to take a corner with DRS activated, the rear end will let go long before the front (ie massive oversteer). If you're going to try using DRS around some of the faster corners during qualifying, it will require serious compromises between qualifying and race setups.<br /><br />The Mercedes version stalls the front wing as well, so if it's implemented carefully, it ought to maintain the balance between front and rear downforce by reducing both by equal amounts. The car setup (balance between front and rear grip) ought to require fewer compromises between quali and race setups.<br />Of course stalling the front wing ought also to reduce drag a bit, benefitting straight line speed too, but the biggest effect is through the corners.<br />The other benefit of the Mercedes system is that it's easier for the driver to manage the car into corners where you have to close DRS just before the corner, as the balance of the car doesn't change - we've seen drivers lose control into corners during qualifying when they've closed DRS a fraction too late.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-1200430076241822162012-04-18T07:58:42.175+01:002012-04-18T07:58:42.175+01:00I think that, as having the super DRS increases th...I think that, as having the super DRS increases the difference between the car in qualifying and the race, it may make a compromise setup hard to achieve. <br /><br />On the other hand, it's clearly not impossible, as we saw in the most recent race.<br /><br />Incidentally, regardless of how badly or well I do in Bahrain (if it goes ahead) I'm going to write an article looking back at the first four races. The first three have been tremendously entertaining but also very hard to predict partly due to an intensely competitive field.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-81671338163732207892012-04-17T09:40:36.169+01:002012-04-17T09:40:36.169+01:00I'm not sure how difficult it will be to retro...I'm not sure how difficult it will be to retrofit.<br /><br />The toughest thing will be to route the ducting from the rear to the front of the car, and the difficulty will vary from team to team. Red Bull probably have the tightest packaging at the back of the car - which could well explain why they have made such a fuss - it could be quite difficult for them to implement.<br /><br />Altering the nose and rear wing is not trivial, and will take development time away from other stuff, but the qualifying gains are probably worth the effort. I'm pretty sure McLaren, for instance, will have sketched up some solutions already.<br /><br />As far as car balance is concerned, I don't see why this is a huge issue, if it's an issue at all.<br /><br />The tyres do most of their work around corners (during the race) when DRS is not activated, so the setup is based on this. Having the front F-duct actually helps, as it maintains the balance between front and rear which is otherwise disturbed when DRS is activated. A lot of the qualifying benefit comes from being able to use DRS round fast corners, where there is sufficient overall downforce with DRS open, but without this system, the rear end would let go, as too much of the downforce is at the front.<br /><br />With this system, setting up the car (ceteris paribus) ought to be easier, I think. Mercedes' tyre management problems earlier in the year probably had other origins.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-27087704587174608012012-04-15T22:27:33.349+01:002012-04-15T22:27:33.349+01:00Indeed.
Mr. Nigel, I read somewhere or other that...Indeed.<br /><br />Mr. Nigel, I read somewhere or other that the problem for some teams trying to copy the DRS F-duct is that it's not especially expensive if conceived as part of the initial racecar, but that it's a bugger to put onto an existing one.<br /><br />I think it has to do with whether the moving part is activated in the middle or the sides, or something like that, and that the Red Bull does it differently to the Mercedes, which is unusual (maybe unique) amongst the teams.<br /><br />Even if other teams could put it on, it would alter the way that tyres are worked, and the gain in time may not outweigh tyre wear or the difficulty of setting up a car that can compete in DRS-heavy qualifying and DRS-light racing. Plus, a bolted-on version may not be as useful as the Mercedes' anyway.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-45831565802753853532012-04-15T19:00:54.133+01:002012-04-15T19:00:54.133+01:00Bahrain is very hot.
If Mercedes are competitive t...Bahrain is very hot.<br />If Mercedes are competitive there, then they really will have sorted their tyre management issues, and the fight will be on for the championship. As we saw today, the car is seriously fast when everything comes together.<br /><br />If not, then McLaren ought to be nailed on favourites. Another four weeks or so, and they should have their own version of the DRS activated blown front wing going, given how uninterested they were in protesting the Mercedes innovation. For whatever reason, the other serious competition - Red Bull - don't seem as prepared to copy it.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-25723185294309221002012-04-15T18:03:21.363+01:002012-04-15T18:03:21.363+01:00Just read ESPN's driver run down and they reck...Just read ESPN's driver run down and they reckon Raikkonen was on medium tyres at the end, but a used set for 28 laps:<br /><br />http://en.espnf1.com/china/motorsport/story/75933.htmlMorris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-45498909029049638062012-04-15T17:41:25.449+01:002012-04-15T17:41:25.449+01:00I'd forgotten they did a two-stopper. That mak...I'd forgotten they did a two-stopper. That makes it even crazier to go soft at the end.<br /><br />I think McLaren will win a number of races and rack up many podiums. They're tasty in qualifying and competitive in all conditions to date. Red Bull are hamstrung by poor qualifying, the Mercedes sometimes eats its tyre after qualifying very well and Ferrari is only scoring points because Alonso's very skilled.<br /><br />Bahrain's a pretty good track for Ferrari. I had a quick look at the circuit diagram and there are quite a few straights, so qualifying may well be another McLaren-Mercedes contest.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-10361845011453808102012-04-15T14:45:24.947+01:002012-04-15T14:45:24.947+01:00I don't think McLaren will be runaway winners ...I don't think McLaren will be runaway winners at many races, it's just that they're going to be battling different teams at the front from race to race.<br />I think that will add up to a championship.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-91362906715684744862012-04-15T14:42:53.562+01:002012-04-15T14:42:53.562+01:00One last thought - fair enough Lotus trying the tw...One last thought - fair enough Lotus trying the two stop strategy, as it was definitely workable, but stopping Raikkonen on lap 10 ??<br /><br />That's a bit too early even for a three stopper.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-59503240401910509872012-04-15T14:40:22.484+01:002012-04-15T14:40:22.484+01:00Bahrain will be fascinating to watch. If McLaren d...Bahrain will be fascinating to watch. If McLaren dominates or is competitive there then I think they'll be hard to beat, as they'll have been on the pace at a street circuit, a monsoon-stricken circuit, and a cool (temperature-wise) modern circuit, as well as a hot track.<br /><br />However, even though McLaren have been good everywhere so far they're still just leaders of the pack rather than breaking away comprehensively. The field's very competitive this year.Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-62278278729195259612012-04-15T14:26:52.740+01:002012-04-15T14:26:52.740+01:00The other interesting point is that the new prime ...The other interesting point is that the new prime tyre was faster throughout the race than the used option.<br /><br />I hope that Pirelli tries to make their tyres a bit more durable, so even if they don't last longer, they performance doesn't drop off so quickly with use. As it is a couple of laps during qualifying, or four or five laps in traffic, make the current tyres hopelessly uncompetitive with someone running on a new set in clear air.Nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-86728111673408815762012-04-15T14:15:20.000+01:002012-04-15T14:15:20.000+01:00Thoroughly enjoyable race, and I'm glad (havin...Thoroughly enjoyable race, and I'm glad (having failed on my qualifying bets) that I resisted the temptation to bet on the result, realising I didn't have a clue who was going to win.<br /><br />Actually, I don't think Mercedes were particularly far in front of McLaren on race pace.<br />The tyres have a very narrow performance window indeed this season. Despite being caught in traffic, dealing with which takes a big bite out of tyre life, and despite not having a new set of softs (which Rosberg did), Button would still almost have been in contention for the win had his third stop not been ballsed up. I was even more impressed at Hamilton's result, given how much longer he spent in traffic than Button, and just how early his first and second stops were.<br /><br />The Mercedes itself appears to have an even narrower performance window than the tyres (as Ross Brawn himself has indicated). They found a perfect set up for this race, and raceday temperature was perfect for them, but they were nowhere for the previous two. McLaren have been fast at all three tracks, and should be fast again at the much hotter Bahrain race.<br /><br />Fun though it might be, and delighted though I am that the win will keep the parent company committed to F1 for a while, I don't see Mercedes competing for the championship.<br />If the odds on Button or Hamilton for the championship lengthen a bit, as I think they might, I'll be unhedging a bit of the hedging I've already done on them.nigelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-35385385488745101892012-04-15T14:04:20.519+01:002012-04-15T14:04:20.519+01:00Mr. Putney, you're not the only one who though...Mr. Putney, you're not the only one who thought Button would struggle. I was really surprised that Button did so well (he clearly deserved second), but that may've partly been because Hamilton got bad traffic. McLaren need to work on their strategy. They were unlucky in Australia and Malaysia (safety car and Button then tangling with a cucumber) but here it was just bad calls from the pits.<br /><br />Thanks again, although I hope you'll be able to add the word 'profitable' to the next race's articles!Morris Dancernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-9422938765556131572012-04-15T13:40:12.572+01:002012-04-15T13:40:12.572+01:00An exciting and enjoyable race but hopeless for me...An exciting and enjoyable race but hopeless for me from a betting perspective. Why can't I simply accept that Jenson Button is an exceptionally good driver and cease betting against him?<br />The race itself aside, the big disappointment for me was the BBC TV commentary. Not content with handing over half the F1 programmme to Sky, they then go and replace the excellent Martin Brundle with someone not fit to tie his shoelaces. Even David Coulthard, his previous colleague (for whom I understand MB continues to act as business manager) didn't seem to have the same spark as previously. Whoever at the Beeb was responsible for such mismanagement should be shot at dawn.<br />Thanks again to Morris the Dancer for his interesting and enjoyable pieces and for his betting insight - hopefully more PBers will join in with their comments as the season progresses.<br /><br />Peter from PutneyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com