tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post8226965232378273115..comments2023-10-23T18:27:06.378+01:00Comments on PoliticalBetting - Channel 2: A conundrum for Labour strategistsMike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-9545063212569469752010-08-24T15:55:46.982+01:002010-08-24T15:55:46.982+01:00The reasons for voting can sometimes never be logi...The reasons for voting can sometimes never be logically explained .<br /> A ladyfriend of mine ( of no politocal allegiance )voted Labour in 1997 to get the Conservatives out . She lived and still does in Mid Sussex where the logical anto Conservative vote both in 1997 and today would be to vote LibDem .<br /> In a council byelection in Shoreham a couple of years ago I canvassed someone who claimed to be Labour but had voted Liberal/LibDem at every election since since the Arundel/Shoreham byelection in the 1970's because Labour stood no chance . This despite Labour finishing above the LibDems in several elections .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14135355793483364640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-42224133517645654292010-08-23T15:43:48.851+01:002010-08-23T15:43:48.851+01:00Obviously, if introduced, AV will change this calc...Obviously, if introduced, AV will change this calculation completely.<br /><br />Putting that aside, the interesting question for me about Braggism is the extent to which these people are consciously tactical voters, and the extent to which they have been influenced, often over many years, by the fact that local campaigns by both LD and Con have driven home the message that "Labour can't win here" and simultaneously, there has been very little if any campaigning by the Labour party itself.<br /><br />Places where LD or Con are third are generally closer to somewhere where they are more successful - but in the southwest, it's not just that only Labour MPs are in Exeter, Plymouth and Bristol, it's that they have only a handful of second places outside those three cities. The old rural working class Labour party is dead and the lack of any kind of Labour campaign on the ground is changing preferences.<br /><br />Even in those urban areas where the Tory party is (just as) dead, you're rarely ten miles from a Tory MP.Richard Gadsdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545595590359552775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-34248419034975246392010-08-22T16:42:17.272+01:002010-08-22T16:42:17.272+01:00OOpps
Insert assuming between is and that in L...OOpps <br /><br /> Insert assuming between is and that in Line 1 .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14135355793483364640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-13657421572824378942010-08-22T16:41:12.087+01:002010-08-22T16:41:12.087+01:00Interesting article , antifrank .
One of the bi...Interesting article , antifrank .<br /><br /> One of the biggest errors in UK politics is that loads of Labour supporters behaved as you describe them Braggites . <br /> Their actual number is in fact very small and remained so even in May this year . We can guage how many there are by looking at the figures for Party ID . Whilst the Yougov figures may not be absolutely correct , they are probably of the right order and show just over 30% of the total electorate identifying as Labour , not much above what they actually achieved in May .<br /> These days attachment to Party ID is much lower than even 20 years ago and as the polls showed in the last parliament , the attachment is weak and there can be wild swings in parties' standings .<br /> The next GE in Con/LD seats will be decided not by those tactical Labour voters who voted LD in May but the mass of unattached voters who voted LD or Conservative in May in these seats but hold no firm attachment to either party .Mark Seniorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14135355793483364640noreply@blogger.com