tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-64134932038495794812024-03-13T05:23:46.707+00:00PoliticalBetting - Channel 2Mike Smithsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11961547389548912471noreply@blogger.comBlogger378125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-54685222390840879442013-07-20T10:07:00.001+01:002013-07-20T10:07:32.223+01:00Mid-season review - racing<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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At this point we’re 10 races into the 19 race season, and
the time has arrived for my traditional mid-season review of the racing. This
is slightly later than usual, to allow the Young Driver (New Tyre) Test to take
place first. As with the betting review I'm posting it here as well as at http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Early on the season looked extremely finely balanced, with
Lotus and Ferrari easier on tyres but Red Bull faster in qualifying.
Unfortunately a combination of bad luck/poor races for the first two teams and
(excepting Silverstone) a very reliable performance from Vettel/Red Bull has
meant that the season’s now in danger of being another Red Bull procession.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes began the season with good qualifying pace but
eating tyres, seemed to get on top of the tyre wear, largely, to compete at the
sharp end in the races, but appear to have been hit hard by the new ban on
swapping rear tyres. It’s worth also saying that Force India’s performance in Germany
was below par for what has otherwise been a very good season for them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The ban on Mercedes for the Young Driver/New Tyre Test will
hit them harder than they would’ve imagined when it was handed down, and I
suspect any pretensions towards contesting the title have now disappeared.
However, at slower circuits, such as Singapore,
they may be able to have moments of success.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McLaren, Sauber and Williams are all having dodgy seasons,
in very different ways. McLaren and Williams have simply designed cars that
aren’t fast enough. The switch for McLaren to focus on the 2014 car is the
right decision and will hopefully pay dividends next year. In addition, the low
pressure on Perez given the car isn’t good enough may be a blessing in disguise
and enable him to get to know the team without the pressure to win/score
podiums every race. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s sad to see Williams tumble from a pretty good season
last year (they would’ve scored far more points if Senna were fast or Maldonado
reliable) to a shocker in 2013. Sauber seems to have significant money
troubles, with slow payments to Hulkenberg and no title sponsor, though the
team is working on that. In addition, their car’s a bit of a dog and
Hulkenberg’s reportedly keen to leave.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Toro Rosso are having a pretty good season. Ricciardo’s
qualified sixth in a couple of consecutive races, which is impressive. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Right now Mercedes and Red Bull are almost even on
qualifying pace, though the Silver Arrows probably just have the edge. Judging
by Germany, I’d
say Red Bull and Lotus are fastest in the race, with Ferrari close behind and
Mercedes hampered by very poor tyre wear.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Young Driver Test ran from 17-19 July. All information
regarding the new tyres was made available to all teams, including Mercedes
(although as cars use tyres differently this still counts as a sizeable
handicap for the team).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some teams changed their minds about having race drivers do
the testing because race drivers were subject to more constraints than test
drivers. Vettel did test, Raikkonen did not.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It sounds like the new tyres will make little difference, if
Vettel is to be believed: <a href="http://www.espn.co.uk/redbull/motorsport/story/117211.html">http://www.espn.co.uk/redbull/motorsport/story/117211.html</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That view is also backed up by Hulkenberg: <a href="http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/7/14816.html">http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/7/14816.html</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If that’s the case then the biggest difference with the
tyres could be the ban on swapping rear tyres. Germany’s
the only race we really have for a comparable pecking order, which had Red Bull
and Lotus close on race pace (perhaps Lotus a shade faster) and Red Bull and
Mercedes again vying for pole. McLaren, probably due to developments on the
car, have improved, and Force India
seemed to have gone backwards quite a bit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On tyres: Pirelli have changed their Hungary
tyres (medium-hard previously) to soft-medium, due to the change in
construction. If it’s hot, which is entirely possible, that should play into
the hands of Lotus/Ferrari. However, the circuit’s hard to overtake on, so good
qualifying is critical (although tyre degradation should make it possible to
make some progress during pit stops).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking to next year briefly (I’m mentioning it now because
it’s a little-known but critical rule change): in 2014 gear ratios will have to
be set for the entire year (hat tip to Will Tyson of <a href="https://twitter.com/theWPTformula">https://twitter.com/theWPTformula</a>
for raising this). Now, that sounds rather dry, but it’s actually crucial.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My knowledge of gear ratios is slightly ropey, but here’s
the gist: if you have short gears then on the straights you have a lower top
speed. But, through the corners you’ll be faster. Red Bull is a typical short
gear team, preferring to optimise overall lap time, qualify near the sharp end
and then race off into the sunset before DRS
comes into effect (NB DRS flap size will be
increased from 50mm to 65mm next year) so lower straight line speed doesn’t
compromise them and allow them to be passed on the straights.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now, think of Monaco
or Singapore
and then, say, Monza or Montreal.
The circuits are entirely different. The first two are tight, slow circuits
with barely a straight between them. Monza
and Montreal are basically
straights connected by little kinks masquerading as corners. One set of gear
ratios for every circuit will mean there isn’t a set pecking order. It also
means that midfield teams could optimise one way or the other so that they’ll
be dire at 80% of circuits but very competitive at the other 20%. This could
make races very variable regarding frontrunners and, hopefully, open up
significant betting opportunities before first practice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-2373938357243753582013-07-14T12:38:00.000+01:002013-07-14T12:38:05.921+01:00Mid-season review - betting<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</div>
I’m posting this on both <a href="http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/">http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/</a>,
the new home of my F1 articles/tips this season, and <a href="http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/">http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/</a>,
the old one, so that people who frequented the old site and may’ve missed the
move are made aware.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The mid-season review for betting will be shorter than usual
because I’ve covered much of it previously.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Normally, my season would involve a slow start, a strong end
to the first half, a second half slump and a slight pick up at the end. This
season has been weird. I had a great start, and a slump for almost all the rest
of the first half of the season. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In addition, I’ve always made smaller bets (often early on),
and not tipped them on the basis of either buyer’s remorse, lack of liquidity
or because I’m trying something new and cunning. Typically, these have made me
losses, but this season I’ve had two winners at 8 (Rosberg to win Monaco
and Lotus to top score in Germany).
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In short, this is Bizarro-season. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, I think I’ve identified some of the reasons I’ve
been screwing up. Ironically, my assessment of pace before the first qualifying
occurred was actually spot on, but since then it’s strayed. I was too slow to
recognise the Mercedes-Red Bull hegemony in qualifying and to realise that
Ferrari and Lotus were drifting back on race pace.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s also important to consider that the first half of the
season may be of less use than usual for predicting the second half, perhaps
excepting Germany.
That’s because the tyres are going to change in-season for safety reasons, and
the practice of swapping rear tyres has been banned. This appears to have
returned Mercedes to their tyre-chewing ways (and Mercedes alone will lack the
opportunity to test the new tyres before Hungary)
and has also hampered Force India.
Ferrari’s pace seems somewhat diminished, whereas Lotus is both fast and kind
on its tyres. Red Bull probably remains top dog overall.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hopefully the season will continue its Bizarro form, and
instead of a latter-season slump I’ll enjoy some great success. At the moment
the results are red for both hedged and non-hedged, although the hedged loss is
less than half the non-hedged loss.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The racing review will be up after the Young Driver Test,
which may afford an opportunity to assess the tyres and their impact upon the
forthcoming races.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-77110783258771730152013-06-04T07:52:00.000+01:002013-06-04T07:52:11.336+01:00Canada: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Some tyre news: whilst Pirelli will be updating their tyres
they won’t be used for qualifying or the race in Montreal,
but will be used in practice. So, bear this in mind both when considering how
the teams will go this weekend and how they might at Silverstone.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I think the tyres used will be medium and supersoft. Not
certain, though.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In addition, Hankook have ruled out replacing Pirelli in
2014, suggesting that either someone else will do it or F1 should hurry up and
sign Pirelli up again or they won’t have time to make the 2014 tyre.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Canada’s
often a fantastic race, and should be several thousand times more entertaining
than Monaco.
Just a reminder that the timezone means everything will be relatively later (P3
ends at about 3pm, I think). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As always, your insights, tips, comments and general musings
are welcome.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-18941507369170892002013-05-26T15:41:00.000+01:002013-05-26T15:41:06.983+01:00Monaco: post-race analysis<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red race, and one that sounded criminally boring.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The start was textbook. In fact, the first seven held their
positions. Sutil lost his nose and Button correspondingly got promoted to
eighth. Perez cut the chicane to keep his position, and was told by the team to
give it up (perhaps pre-empting a penalty), which put Button up to seventh.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Di Resta was pitted early when Pic’s car stopped (and then
burst into flames) near the pit entry, but no safety car came out, and he was
dropped back down the grid (although he did benefit when it came out later).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On lap 30 Massa
had a crash very similar to that he had in practice. The safety car emerged, at
which point Mercedes were slightly compromised as they had to pit, which meant Hamilton
losing a few seconds (and then places) because Rosberg was still in the lead.
Sheer bad luck for Hamilton, who dropped from second to fourth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The safety car stayed out for quite a few laps, which was
perplexing. At this stage it was unclear whether another stop would be
necessary.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On lap 46 there was a crash involving Maldonado and Chilton which
tore into the softer barriers, so that the barrier material largely obscured
the track. This prompted a red flag.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This enabled the drivers to change for fresh tyres whilst
waiting on the grid for the race to restart, unfortunately.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull were tremendously lucky with both incidents. The
safety car allowed them to pass Hamilton,
and the red flag gave them a much needed tyre change, whereas the Mercedes,
Lotus and Ferrari *may* have been able to get to the end without another stop.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The race resumed at 2.35pm
behind the safety car, with most cars on the supersoft.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anderson
reckoned Alonso was competitive on softs, but very poor on the supersoft tyre. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ricciardo and Grosjean collided, creating much debris on the
track and prompting another safety car.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perez was doing many slightly dodgy passes. He tried one on
Raikkonen, the Finn had none of it and blocked him, damaging Perez’s front
wing. However, Raikkonen then suffered a puncture and had to pit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the end, Perez had to retire and Raikkonen scraped into
the final points position, having previously been in fifth. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perfect race from Rosberg who secures a deserved win, Vettel
and Webber were fast but also benefited enormously from the various incidents. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton was
unlucky due to the safety car timing (not unlike Australia
in 2012, actually) to be down in fourth. Sutil’s fifth was brilliant. Unlike
Perez, his passing was rather more considered. Button will be pleased with
sixth (and that Perez got nothing) and Alonso will be disappointed with a
surprisingly poor race pace to finish seventh.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vergne got a solid eighth, and Di Resta, having qualified
only seventeenth, got ninth. Raikkonen fought back to gain but a single point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m posting this prior to the highlights (I may watch them
just to see what I make of Perez’s passing and the various other incidents),
but from the radio it sounded as exciting as watching beige paint dry in an old
people’s home. With a few exceptions (Force India,
Raikkonen) there was sod all passing, a procession of a race and the safety
cars/red flags even robbed us of any tactical cunning which could’ve seen
varying pit stop strategies shuffle the pack a bit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Raikkonen bet may’ve stood a chance but for the red flag.
Vettel was told by his engineer that it was touch and go regarding another
stop, but the red flag allowed an extra free change. It’s a bit frustrating,
not only because the bet lost (hedge was unmatched) but also because I don’t
know what would’ve happened. It’s a coin toss situation: either Raikkonen
would’ve easily passed the Red Bulls or he wouldn’t, but we’ll never know now.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In terms of performance, Ferrari had a shocker. Alonso had
poor pace throughout and actually went backwards (despite Perez retiring and
Raikkonen pitting late on) from his grid slot. Meanwhile Massa
retired with another crash.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Force India
should be chuffed. Sutil’s been very fast during his comeback but dogged by
rotten luck. Bad luck was absent today for him and he made the most of it to
achieve a great fifth. Di Resta also put in a good performance after a very
poor qualifying.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes will be happiest, though. Not only did they get the
win, their pace looked good. Rosberg was peerless all weekend, and thoroughly
deserved the victory. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In title terms Vettel stole a march on his rivals.
Throughout the race (excepting the possibility of a pit stop pass that never
happened for Raikkonen) he was ahead of the Finn and Alonso. The Spaniard’s
poor pace and the Finn’s ill fortune meant that Vettel significantly extended
his lead at the top of the table, and Red Bull did likewise for the
Constructors’.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel 107</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen 86</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso 78</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull 164</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari 123</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus 112</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes 109</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thankfully, the Canadian Grand Prix, which tends to be
rather more interesting, is in a fortnight. The BBC
coverage even involves fancy moving pictures as well as sound. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-39924637802249695762013-05-25T20:19:00.000+01:002013-05-25T20:19:43.117+01:00Monaco: pre-race<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
A sudden rain shower shortly before qualifying meant that
the first part of qualifying was on intermediates. Grosjean managed to get his
car fixed in time, but Massa did
not and will start last.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the soggy first session we lost Di Resta, Pic, Gutierrez,
Chilton, Bianchi and Massa. That’s
tremendously disappointing for Di Resta, and for Massa
(who never got to put in a lap). However, Van Der Garde will be delighted to
escape Q1 for the first time (I think).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
More rain started falling before and during Q2. With a few
minutes to go the rain eased, Van Der Garde switched to supersofts and was then
followed by everyone else. Hulkenberg, Ricciardo, Grosjean, Bottas, Van Der
Garde and Maldonado left qualifying at this stage. Pretty disappointing for
Grosjean.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q3 began on supersofts, but rain started to fall halfway
through. I thought Vettel, who led after the dry first half, was guaranteed
pole. Happily, Rosberg nabbed it at the end, just a tiny bit ahead of Hamilton.
Vettel and Webber share the second row, with Raikkonen and Alonso behind. Perez
and Sutil follow, with Button and Vergne rounding out the top 10.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, the tip came off, which I was very surprised at given
the weather conditions. I’m also pretty pleased that I backed (small stakes and
not tipped) the Mercedes’ drivers at 8 each to win. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Happily the weather forecast for tomorrow is entirely dry,
so let’s hope the elements don’t intervene as they did in qualifying. A few
ideas for bets did present themselves, but the odds were surprisingly poor. I
happen to think the Silver Arrows will do rather better than in recent races
and would be slightly surprised if they don’t end up with at least one chap on
the podium.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finding the race very hard to bet on. I suspect that from
the line the top 3 will remain more or less as they are. Webber could well lose
a place or two (he starts poorly and Alonso tends to start well). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given a dry race that means we’ll be in for a procession.
One or more safety cars is likely, and the timing could provide cover for pit
stops. If there isn’t one until later on then it’s possible a single-stop for
Raikkonen could deliver him victory. I was very tempted by this, safety car
timing, traffic and Lotus potentially being a little off the pace put me off.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I suspect it’ll be a procession (good for the Silver
Arrows), but finding a bet with remotely decent odds is rather difficult. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the end I backed Raikkonen for a podium at 2.86, hedged
at 1.4. I suspect the potential for an extra pit stop could play into his
hands, and there’s the opportunity for him to pass Webber off the line. He’s
also highly consistent, which rather helps when the boundary of the track is
steel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, that took a while to come up with. I hope the hedge
gets matched now.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-15718327523973288602013-05-25T11:12:00.000+01:002013-05-25T11:12:44.527+01:00Monaco: pre-qualifying<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
Gary Anderson said during practice that the tyre woe for
Mercedes could disappear in Monaco.
In P1 Red Bull were locking their brakes up easily.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P1 had Rosberg fastest, followed closely by Alonso and then
Grosjean, Massa, Hamilton,
Maldonado, Webber, Button, Perez and Vettel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P2 the Silver Arrows did even better, with Rosberg top,
then Hamilton (three-tenths down the road), Alonso, Massa, Webber, Raikkonen,
Grosjean, Button, Vettel and Di Resta.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, Grosjean did have a crash in P2, and will be glad
that in Monaco
Fridays are a free day (the above sessions occur on Thursday), giving more time
to mend the car.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At this stage I’m thinking of splitting a pole bet between
Rosberg and Hamilton. The Ferraris also look good. Vettel seems quite unhappy
with his pace and was 0.3s and 0.6s off of his team mate (in one session he
lacked KERS, however). If he does badly (without traffic) in P3 there’s the
off-chance of laying him for Q3, but that’s unlikely (although worth keeping an
eye on because the odds would be tasty).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Aerodynamics matter less in Monaco,
so this may help McLaren. They won’t be competing for pole, but they should be
better than usual.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There’s a small chance (30%) of very light rain in
qualifying. It shouldn’t disrupt things much, if it arrives at all.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P3 Vettel had to abort his fastest lap. It’s unlikely it
would’ve beaten Rosberg, but it probably would’ve been fast (a second Grosjean
crash produced a late red flag preventing Vettel having another crack at it).
The red flag means we don’t have an absolutely accurate picture for qualifying.
However, the standings were Rosberg, Grosjean, Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton,
Raikkonen, Webber, Di Resta, Maldonado, and Hulkenberg.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’ve backed Rosberg for pole at 1.95, no hedge. He was
fastest in every practice session and often by a significant margin. Vettel may
challenge, but I don’t think he would’ve been fast enough in P3. Things can always
change in Monaco,
but unless there’s an accident or another out of the blue event I think he’s
very likely to get another pole position.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-30477079526098791792013-05-21T09:13:00.000+01:002013-05-21T09:13:03.597+01:00Monaco: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pirelli are to change their tyre compounds for Canada,
which is the race after Monaco:
<a href="http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/108038.html">http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/108038.html</a>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now, the difference to the pecking order obviously depends
on how big the change is, but here’s how I see it playing out:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Winners - Red Bull, Mercedes</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Losers - Lotus, Ferrari</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If I’m right and Pirelli overcook the changes we could see a
very tight, interesting title race devolve into a Red Bull procession. I really
hope that doesn’t happen, but we’ll just have to wait and see.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During the Spain-Monaco interval I backed Red Bull for the
Constructors’ at 1.9, because I was green for Ferrari and Lotus and wanted to
cover that possibility. I also put small sums (NB this is not a tip) on
Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although 4 stops in Spain was excessive it’s worth pointing
out that every team has the same tyres and if Lotus have made theirs work very
well then fiddling with the compounds now is unfairly penalising them. For all
Red Bull’s bleating they are leading both title races.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As Gary Anderson wrote: “In 2011, Vettel won the Spanish
Grand Prix. He also made four pit stops and there were 77 pit stops in the
entire race. There were no complaints from Red Bull then.”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22543884">http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22543884</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, since then the FIA
has stated that changes to the tyres can only occur to help safety (in this
case reducing the risk of the dramatic delamination<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a few drivers have seen). So, with luck, this
will minimise the impact upon the pecking order.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s also been announced that in 2015 McLaren will switch to
Honda engines: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204">http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many BBC chaps reckoned
that Mercedes could be the team to watch in Monaco, as the third sector of
Spain is apparently a very good guide to Monaco pace and the Silver Arrows were
fastest in that sector.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Your thoughts, tips and insights are all welcome in the
comments below. (NB P1 and P2 are on Thursday rather than Friday, as is the
norm for Monaco).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com25tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-58349837893789782932013-05-16T08:43:00.000+01:002013-05-16T08:43:21.652+01:00The EU and Britain<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The EU<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The EU
is in crisis. Scrub that, the EU is in
crises. It is currently undergoing at
least four different crises simultaneously:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">1.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">An economic growth crisis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">2.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A debt crisis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">3.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A crisis of purpose<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">4.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A democratic crisis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Others
will probably add to this list. These
are lousy times for the EU.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
first two will probably sort themselves out, sooner or later (my money is on
later). Their significance is mainly as
mood music for the other two. When times
are good, the public won’t care very much whether legislation has a true
mandate or whether the EU has a clear way forward. But when times are bad, the public mood will
turn sour and every aspect will be examined in minute detail. This is what is happening now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">So for
me, the two important crises are the crisis of purpose and the democratic
crisis. Let’s take these in order.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Crisis
of purpose<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Since
its foundation in the 1950s, the EU has had overlapping purposes of varying
degrees of salience at varying times:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">1.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To foster peaceful co-operation between its member states<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">2.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To act as a bulwark against Communism<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">3.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To help its poorer members become more economically developed<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">4.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To develop economic prosperity for its members<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">5.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">To project European presence and set European standards for a wider
world<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In the immediate
post-war generation, peaceful co-operation was incredibly important. Continental Europe had seen three wars
between Germany and France in 75 years, and the continent had been
devastated. But time has passed, and it
is now nearly 70 years since the end of the Second World War. Only the very oldest European citizens
remember the war, and the thought of war between member EU states (certainly in
the west) is barely conceivable. In the
hierarchy of wants of international politics, peace is now taken as read. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
Berlin Wall fell nearly 25 years ago.
Whatever the EU is for now, it is not against Communism.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The EU
has historically done well at helping its poorer member states become more
economically developed. But the economic
growth crisis and the debt crisis have put these achievements in jeopardy. Greece, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Portugal,
Ireland and Cyprus would not regard the EU as offering them much on this front
at present. So the two economic crises
feed into the crisis of purpose.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">And so
they do with the fourth purpose. For
nearly 60 years, the EU has encouraged much greater trade between its member
states – mostly successfully. But at a
time when economic growth in member states is weak, non-existent or worse, that
purpose looks thin.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">What
this means is that in practice, most EU citizens can see only one aspect of the
EU functioning at present, which is the projection of the EU presence onto a
wider world. This is not healthy for any
institution, because the public will reasonably conclude that the prime
beneficiaries of the EU are the politicians and the bureaucrats. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This in
turn leads onto...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
democratic crisis<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The EU
is an unwieldy beast, owing to its topsy-like development. That’s not that unusual – many national
states grew in a similar way (and quite a few of them had revolutions to
establish the boundaries between different competing interests). But different decisions in the EU require
agreement between member states in different proportions, votes of the EU
Parliament of different proportions or combinations of the two. We have never been given a clear underlying
principle as to when the EU should decide to intervene or through what
mechanism – because there is none.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">As a
result, a lot of decisions get taken in the EU without any clear public backing
for the mechanism under which they are taken.
At a domestic level, voters are used to the idea that they might not
support the current government but that government has a mandate for doing what
it is doing. Citizens do not identify
particularly at an EU-wide level, particularly when decisions are made that
conflict with national priorities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This has
always been a problem for the EU, but is especially a problem at a time when
voters don’t see many tangible benefits from the EU.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Britain<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">So far,
I have mentioned Britain only once – in the title. This is quite deliberate. In Britain, far too much time is expended on
considering Britain’s problems with the EU, when the big story at the moment is
the EU’s problems. And Britain’s optimal
relationship with a successful EU would be a very different proposition from
Britain’s optimal relationship with a struggling EU.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Britain
has always had a different view of the varying purposes of the EU that I listed
above from other member states. It was
never devastated by war in the way that France and Germany had been, because it
was never invaded. Britain was always
more outward-looking than other member states, owing in large part to its
history of Empire. It was fiercely
anti-Communist when this was relevant, and approved of helping poorer European
countries (it still does) but this was a second order aim for it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Britain
was always in it primarily for the money – though it was happy to project
European presence onto a wider world if that helped Britain remain relevant and
influential. So while the EU was
prospering, it was able to put up with the empire-building regulation that came
out of Brussels. It was part of the
tariff for admission for access to a more deeply integrated community. The four fundamental freedoms were of great
importance to Britain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">But the
EU is now stalled economically. Britain
also is flatlining. Does Britain
continue to benefit from the EU or could it do better elsewhere? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
answer to this question does not lie in Britain. The answer lies in where the EU would be
heading with or without Britain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Without
Britain, the EU would almost certainly become more protectionist. One of the main voices in favour of free
trade would have been removed from the EU.
The EU would become more French-influenced and more southern. It would be more explicitly anti-banker and
anti-City. Whether or not we maintained
some form of free trade arrangement with the EU (within the EEA, EFTA or
entirely freestanding, and I expect we would), the scope of that arrangement
would probably not be as great as it otherwise would be, and we could expect to
see soft barriers put in Britain’s way.
These barriers would be especially strong in the area of services, which
is particularly unfortunate given that the services sector of Britain’s economy
is its strongest suit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">So we
should definitely stay in? Not so
fast. We need to consider where the EU
would be heading with Britain. And the
direction of travel at present is also alarming. The Eurozone has been integrating rapidly in
the last couple of years – it has had no choice – and is going to need to do
more. With the continuing need for
fiscal transfers between Eurozone member states, there is going to be a need
for more enforceable financial discipline.
This in turn is likely to lead to more integration of taxation. The financial transaction tax is likely to be
only the start. The Eurozone states will
– unless the matter is addressed vigorously right now – inevitably pre-decide
matters among themselves, leaving those outside to scrabble to form a blocking
minority. Progress without the Eurozone bloc
would be impossible. Britain would only
ever be a brake in future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Worse, Britain
has lost a lot of influence within the EU in recent years. Other EU member states are now ignoring past conventions
of not overriding member states in areas where they are pre-eminent, at least
so far as Britain’s financial services industry is concerned. This is in large part Britain’s own fault,
but the rest of the EU is also being shortsighted. If they want to keep Britain as a member,
they have to reach a stable accommodation with Britain which allows Britain to
opt out of many aspects of developing EU law far more easily than it can do at
present. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">And
there’s the key word: if. Other EU
member states have not really engaged with the question whether they want
Britain to remain in the EU. They have
got very used to tantrums from London, and have quite enough other problems to
be getting on with without worrying about how the world looks from across the
Channel.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">But the
problem is not confined to Britain.
Other non-Eurozone countries will be looking for similar protection
against Eurozone dominance. So whether
the EU likes it or not, it is going to have to decide how to accommodate those
member states who do not wish to or cannot join the Eurozone. It is hardly as if they are all
supplicants. Sweden and Denmark are in a
very different position from Hungary and Romania.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This
goes right the way back to my original point about the EU’s crises, and in
particular its crisis of purpose. What
is the EU there for? The EU needs to
revitalise the concepts of peaceful co-operation and developing economic
prosperity for its members: all of its members.
If it wants to develop a European-wide demos, it needs to make sure that
it works on a European-wide basis, rather than for a few preferred member
states. The concept of subsidiarity
needs to be revisited with much more intellectual rigour – and then observed
strictly. That might be enshrined in law
by retreating in quite a few areas from the idea of Qualified Majority Voting
back to voting by unanimity. This would
result in less law, but law that was not vigorously opposed at national
level. If we want the EU to have the
moral as well as the legal authority to intervene in member states, it must intervene
more judiciously.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Is the
EU capable of such change? Candidly, I
doubt it. But it needs to be tried. What if that fails? Much depends on how it fails. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Britain
could have joined the intellectual leadership of the EU if it could resist the
temptation on every occasion to throw rocks at the other member states. But there are too many otherwise-sensible British
people whose pupils dilate and throw back their heads to howl, the moment the
full moon of the EU appears from behind the clouds.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">So I
find myself, rather to my surprise, believing that David Cameron has got essentially
the right policy on the next stage with the EU, though I should stress that I
don’t believe that he’s got to that position by careful consideration of the
geopolitical concerns but purely through (largely misconceived) attempts at
internal party management. But sometimes
people can do the right thing for the wrong reasons.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">antifrank<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Alastairhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11551605492626333385noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-48780909264986529662013-05-12T16:31:00.000+01:002013-05-12T16:31:38.851+01:00Spain: post-race analysis <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
That was a frustrating race. As a spectator, the first half
was pretty good but the latter half less so as substantial gaps opened up at the
sharp end (although there was still some action further down the field). As a
gambler, I’m also frustrated. Raikkonen had a slightly bad start and that
may’ve compromised his victory hopes, but even if he’d started better and still finished second I think
he would’ve gotten much closer and the hedge may’ve been matched. On race pace
the Ferrari and Lotus were fairly closely matched. Hard to be certain if it was
just bad luck or also a misjudgement.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another red weekend, I’m afraid. Although things appear less
topsy-turvy than last year I’ve not been doing all that well. Still, at least I
got one qualifying bet right (hedged, anyway) and the result was nice for my
title bets (more on that near the end).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The start was almost as bad as it could’ve been for me. Both
Vettel and Alonso passed Hamilton, who had an unusually poor start, whereas
Raikkonen dropped a place and got trapped behind the slower car for some time.
Rosberg, at least, held up Vettel and Alonso initially before beginning an
inexorable march backwards.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Button had a bad start, going backwards, and so did Webber
(unsurprisingly). Perez leapt forward a few places but it may be Massa
who had the best of starts. From 9th (demoted there due to impeding someone in
qualifying) he leapt up to about sixth which he briefly duelled over with Perez
before securing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Mercedes is a strange beast. Untouchable in qualifying,
it was appalling in the race. Hamilton
despondently muttering on the radio “Now I’ve been passed by a Williams” rather
summed it up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ferrari, by contrast, looked extremely nice. Both Alonso
and Massa started well and then
capitalised upon that, aided by a very fast, reliable car. Lotus is slightly
harder to assess because Raikkonen was held up by Hamilton
somewhat early on and he ran a different strategy (3 stops rather than 4)
compared to the prancing horse. Grosjean’s suspension failed, forcing him to
retire and meaning we can’t look at his pace/position for comparison.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Red Bull was clearly the third best car today. On the
same strategy as Raikkonen and with an early advantage due to a better start
Vettel ended up some way down the road in 4th. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes needs to sort their car out. Three poles in a row,
the best car in qualifying and just the one podium, with zero wins. It’s not
good enough. Rosberg slid from pole to 6th and Hamilton
went all the way from 2nd to 12th. Even allowing for a dodgy start that’s
atrocious.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Force India
had an ok day, with Di Resta finishing 7th, although Sutil was only 13th.
McLaren should be fairly happy with 8th and 9th and no on-track fireworks
between their drivers and Ricciardo did well to nab the final point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I feel a bit sorry for Gutierrez, who qualified about 16th
and then got a 3 place grid penalty and just missed out on the points in 11th.
However, that will encourage him and it’s good to see him showing some pace.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen was 9.3s off Alonso at the end. I do feel that he
could’ve contested the win but for the poor start, but that sort of thing
happens and it’s all part of the game, so there’s no point complaining. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the plus side, I think it’s bloody mental that he’s still
7.2 for the title. The title now appears to be a 3 horse race. Vettel and
Alonso are 2.5 (ish) each. Although already green on Raikkonen I’m going to put
a few more quid on him because those odds are stupid. He’s had a win and
something like four podiums. Here are the driver standings:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel 89</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen 85</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso 72</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Constructors’:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull 131</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari 117</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus 111</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’ve also (previously) backed Ferrari at about 3.9 for the
Constructors’. If the price drops a little I’ll see about hedging that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s slightly ironic that the bet I almost didn’t make was
the only one that remotely paid off. Right now hedging is still green but
(overall) a bet-and-forget approach would put you into the red. Not too pleased
with how things are going, but hopefully Monaco
can be a little better. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Apparently the third sector of Spain
is a great guide for Monaco
pace, so that may be useful for qualifying betting. The next race is in a
fortnight.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-15254994823784121552013-05-11T15:49:00.000+01:002013-05-11T15:49:42.238+01:00Spain: pre-race<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
Well, that was immensely surprising and interesting from a
spectator’s perspective and immensely disappointing from a betting one. I was
more confident than usual of Vergne getting through. He matched Di Resta’s pace
in two sectors but failed in the third and got nudged out. The Massa
tip was just a big misjudgement on my part, but the hedge got partially met, to
the extent that that bet ended up being green.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Without hedging it’s s straightforward two stake loss, and
with it was a small loss (for stakes of £10 the loss was £1.46). That’s not
abysmal, but at the same time I’d rather have a better result than avoiding
calamity.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kudos to Mr. Nigel, whose 11/1 spot on Rosberg in the early
discussion commentary proved rather inspired.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q1 was largely predictable, although both Williams got
knocked out for the first time this year. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q2 was very tight. Button had a pretty atrocious performance
to finish 14th, ahead of the Saubers, Sutil was a bit below par in 13th for
Force India and the two Toro Rossos finished 10th and 11th. Interestingly Perez
managed to break into the top 10, and outqualified his team mate for the first
time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q3 was a bit of a shock. Mercedes locked out the front row,
and the commentators pointed out that the last team to do this was the Mercedes
forerunner Brawn. However, I wonder whether they’ll be able to make it in the
race. Contrary to what I’d heard in P2 in P3 Gary Anderson was saying the
fastest chaps on the long runs were Raikkonen, Alonso and Rosberg (although the
latter lacked a bit of consistency). I was also a bit surprised Vettel managed
3rd, after which came Raikkonen, Alonso, Massa,
Grosjean, Webber, Perez and Di Resta.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I suspect the Ferraris and Lotus will move forward during
the race. It’ll be interesting to see how well Mercedes can hold on. Indeed,
that’ll be the key to the result and also critical for betting.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, let’s take a scientific(ish) approach. The hard compound
is new, so we don’t have a perfect comparison, but two other races have used
the medium-hard arrangement: Malaysia,
and Bahrain. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Malaysia,
Hamilton qualified 4th and finished
3rd, Rosberg qualified 6th and finished 4th.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Bahrain,
Hamilton qualified 9th and finished
5th, and Rosberg qualified 1st and finished 9th.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here are the other two races:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In China,
Hamilton qualified 1st and finished
3rd, and Rosberg qualified 4th and failed to finish due to reliability issues.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Australia
Hamilton qualified 3rd and finished
5th, and Rosberg qualified 6th but failed to finish due to reliability issues.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton has
gained 1 place, gained 4, lost 2 and lost 2 again, meaning that from 4 starts
and finishes he’s gained a net 1 place.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rosberg has only finished twice (not his fault the other
times), and in those he gained 2 places and lost 8, meaning a net loss of 6.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Overall, in six finishes, Mercedes has lost 5 places. Both
times the team has had pole previously the pole-sitter went backwards in the
race. Every time one of them has qualified 3rd or above they’ve gone backwards
in the race [in fairness, you can’t exactly go forwards if you’re 1st].</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, in Barcelona
all but once in the last 20 odd years has the winner come from the front row.
So, we’re going to see something interesting. Either Mercedes will finally
manage to sort out their tyre issues, or we’ll get a winner from further back.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Last year Schumacher still had gremlins and Rosberg lost a
single place, but in 2011 they did a little better (Schumacher rose from 10th
to 6th and Rosberg stayed in 7th). So, perhaps the Mercedes will have better
pace than is widely expected. Hmm.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Andrew Benson (BBC F1 chap) had some handy tweets about
their race pace:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“Re Merc race pace. P2. ALO med tyre race sim avg 1:29.906;
ROS 1:31.85. Fastest lap during it: ALO 1:29.073; ROS 1:30.880. Fuel, yes,
but...”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite being probably the best qualifiers (certainly around
the top) Mercedes have not only had zero wins so far, but fewer podiums than
Red Bull, Lotus and Ferrari.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Based on that, their tyre wear issues, the long run to the
start (high potential for getting passed off the line), and his strong race
pace I’m going to back Raikkonen for the win at 4.8, with a hedge at 2.2. He’s
also improved at every race from grid to flag, except China
where he started and finished 2nd. If the Mercedes eat their tyres he should
have the race pace to beat Vettel, with luck.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anyway, let’s hope the race is nice and green.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-26192101919337578732013-05-11T11:30:00.000+01:002013-05-11T11:30:06.682+01:00Spain: pre-qualifying <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
The race is expected to be dry, and the compounds are medium
and hard this weekend.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Practice 1 was slightly spoiled because it was rather soggy
at first, then dried later. In the latter stage the rapidly drying nature of
the track meant that times (and gaps between them) were somewhat exaggerated,
limiting its use as an indication of speed. However, Ferrari will still be
happy to get a 1-2 (Alonso fastest), followed by Vergne, Grosjean, Sutil,
Hamilton, Bottas, Raikkonen, Rosberg and Di Resta.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P2, thankfully was nice and dry. The top 10 were Vettel,
Alonso, Webber, Raikkonen, Massa, Hamilton,
Rosberg, Sutil, Vergne and Di Resta. At this stage it looks like a 3 horse
race, with the Red Bulls and Ferraris vying for pole and Lotus a shade slower
over a single lap but very competitive in race trim.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I saw only a tiny bit of P1 but almost all of P2, and
decided to try a slightly new tactic by making a few notes. The commentators
were James Allen and Alan McNish, who seemed to offer quite a lot of
interesting opinions/insights.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On high fuel with the medium tyre Vettel’s times were about
1:29.5 to 1:30.3, whereas Grosjean managed a lap of 1:28.4 and several faster
than Vettel’s best. Mercedes suffered badly, with (if I heard correctly) times
of around 1:30.8 degrading to 1:33.
Looks like the Silver Arrow will be going backwards again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Interestingly, Vettel has never had pole in Spain.
Doesn’t mean he won’t this time, but his P2 fastest time was a teensy bit lucky
as Alonso was 0.017s behind but got held up very slightly and probably would’ve
been fastest. Although the commentators didn’t refer to his high fuel times
directly I noticed myself one lap of 1:29.118, which is rather nice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus may well be fastest on race pace but overtaking in Barcelona
isn’t easy so they need to start high up the grid. 2 or 3 stops can work at the
circuit, and that decision may affect qualifying.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McNish was also bullish about Force India’s
prospects in the race, despite slightly lacklustre single lap speed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, qualifying speed would seem to be Red Bull/Ferrari equal
first then Lotus, with race pace Lotus fastest, then Ferrari, then Red Bull. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Oh, and a tyre on Di Resta’s car was completely destroyed,
similar to Hamilton/Massa in Bahrain.
Nobody else was affected, but that must be a concern.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P3 the top 10 were Massa,
then Raikkonen (separated by a tiny margin), then Webber, Grosjean, Vettel,
Alonso, Di Resta, Sutil, Hamilton and Vergne. Critically, Vergne’s 10th fastest
time was on the hard compound tyre (he didn’t set a fast time on the medium).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’ve backed Vergne to reach Q3 at 3.8 (hedged at 1.6). He
was top 10 in every practice session, and I’d suggest the true odds are around
1.8. It’s not a dead cert, but I do think it’s eminently possible.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Toro Rosso are one team whose updates seem to be working
nicely. Williams also have taken a step forward, but Sauber and McLaren appear
to be treading water. The Force India is looking pretty competitive once again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Right now this looks like a Lotus/Ferrari duel to me, with
Red Bull possibly vying for pole but unless they can start ahead and retain
that advantage I suspect the prancing horse and Lotuses will beat them this
weekend. Mercedes are looking less speedy than I’d imagined, and I think their
imploding tyres will lead them to go backwards in the race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The harder tyre is apparently better for the race (so says
Gary Anderson, who knows his beans) so this should mean we see everyone
unafraid to run through the mediums in qualifying, huzzah. Williams appear to suffer
more on the mediums, so may qualify poorly but still have the prospect of
snaffling a point or two in the race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Incidentally, Webber has had two poles in Spain
(Barcelona) and Vettel none.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After some prevarication (I’m not fond of multiple qualifying
tips) I decided to back Massa at
14.5 to get pole (hedged at 5). He was fastest (effectively joint fastest as
the margin’s so small) in P3 during the qualifying simulation with Raikkonen, a
tenth and a half ahead of the rest. In P1 he was second to Alonso. The Ferrari
is clearly a contender for pole and Massa
has (over the last 5-6 races or so) been beating Alonso as often as not. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anyway, let’s hope both tips come off, and that qualifying
is delightfully green.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-28774293932479008802013-05-07T08:49:00.000+01:002013-05-07T08:49:41.303+01:00Spain: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
It’s only been three weeks since Bahrain
but it feels like a lot longer.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pirelli are making some extra tyres available in practice to
encourage teams to actually go trundling around instead of sipping energy
drinks in the garage. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Naturally, most teams will be bringing significant upgrades
to the European part of the season. The races are both closer to one another
and to the factories of the teams (most of which are based in a small part of England)
so upgrades should be coming thick and fast during this portion of the season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Will McLaren have improved? Will Webber’s car run out of
petrol? Thoughts, tips, insights and the like are all welcome in the comments
below.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And [this is the only bit of plugging I’ll do here, promise]
my latest book, Journey to Altmortis, is out now. It’s up on Amazon and
Smashwords right now. The latter site offers a variety of formats to download
and if you use the code XK87G (expires the 14th of May) you get it for a third
of the usual price.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-68964894571050057382013-04-30T08:29:00.001+01:002013-04-30T08:29:27.587+01:002013 early season review<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In line with tradition, I'm writing this to have a quick
look back at the initial part of the season, which consisted of 4 fly-away
races.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unusually (in fact, I think it's the first time) I'm
actually ahead at this point, although still quite unhappy with how things have
gone. I'll run through the betting first and then consider where I think
drivers and teams are competitively.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first race was awkward because I dislike betting on the
race before qualifying. However, a lot of rain meant I had to either sit Australia
out or bet early. So, I bet early on Ferrari top scoring (5.5). Happily, they
did just that, and it was a very good start to the season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Malaysia
and China saw a
single race bet each, and neither came off. I backed Massa
for a podium and Vettel for the win. Massa
went backwards and was never in the running. In China
there was a tricky judgement call to make and I got it entirely wrong, so the
hedge didn't get matched there either.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bahrain
was the first race where qualifying was at a time that disposed me to bet on
it, and although Alonso didn't get pole the bet was near enough for the hedge
to be matched. I also backed him for the win, but any hope of that was ended by
the two DRS failures and early pit stops. We'll never know if he'd've been in a
position to contest the victory and that was clearly a stroke of bad luck, but
good luck happens too so hopefully that'll balance out over the season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In short, Australia
was a good win, Malaysia
and China
single stake losses and Bahrain
essentially flat (loss of 46 pence with £10 stakes and hedging). After such a
good start I'm not particularly pleased, but overall the first four races are
better than has typically been the case. For certain, one failed bet (Vettel) was
due to misjudgement on my part, and another (Alonso to win Bahrain)
was ruined by bad luck.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, not delighted but things could be worse (and at this
stage they usually are).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Onto the racing. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's worth stating that with three weeks and the shift from
fly-away to European races that the competitive order should change between now
and then. McLaren especially will be looking to improve. However, it's still
well worth considering how the cars and chaps driving them stack up now. The
list below is in order of the Constructors' table.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whine like hell about the tyres but top both title races.
Whenever the hard tyre has been used they've won the race. Car is fast in
qualifying and the race, perhaps a bit harder on the tyres than some other top
teams. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel has been driving very well, Webber's suffered a
combination of bad luck and lack of support from management as well as blatant
and unpunished disobedience of direct orders from Vettel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
They'll be in the running for both titles.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Better than in recent years in qualifying but perhaps not
quite as good as Red Bull or Mercedes. Good pace and wear on all tyres, but the
DRS problem ruined Bahrain
and if it's repeated that'd be a serious hindrance. As good as any other team
on race pace.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso is driving well but has suffered some very bad luck
with a DNF early on and then the DRS problem. 30 points already behind the
lead, but there's still 15 races to go and he should be in the hunt for the
title. Massa's also been driving
pretty well.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso will definitely feature in the title race, and the
team should be there for the Constructors'.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Softest of all the teams on tyres, fast in the race but
pretty poor when it comes to qualifying. If they can sort out qualifying they
could be the best of any team.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen is a points machine and (as well as tying Vettel
for most podiums, 3/4, this season) has scored in 21 consecutive races.
Grosjean has been lacklustre, until Bahrain
where he did very well to join his team mate on the podium.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I expect Raikkonen to be challenging for the title. The team
will only be able to do likewise if Grosjean maintains his Bahrain
form.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Very good in qualifying, reasonable race pace, but the car
eats its tyres (still). I don't think they'll be in the running for either
title.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton's
driving very well, and in a better, more tyre-friendly, car I'd expect him to
be able to tilt at the title. Rosberg is Webber's chief rival for Unluckiest
Driver of the Year, but even starting on pole he drifted all the way back to
ninth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'd be surprised if they can fight for either title, but
podiums and perhaps the odd win should be achievable.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Force India:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Great start, and a real surprise, for me. Strong race pace,
perhaps a shade slower in qualifying. However, they have suffered some serious
pit stop woe (hopefully that's a one-off).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sutil really hit the ground running this year, and Di
Resta's also been driving solidly. They should aim to get the odd podium and
try to finish ahead of everyone outside the top four.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whilst not a title contender in either race, Force India
has had the strongest start of the season of any midfield team, even outscoring
McLaren.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McLaren:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Managed to have the strongest car last year, few regulation
changes and become the sixth fastest this year. Poor in qualifying, slightly
better in the race, which is unacceptably bad from one of the biggest teams in
the sport.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Button had some bad luck when a pit stop only bolted on
three tyres rather than the traditional four, but even so he wouldn't be miles
higher in the table. Perez, like Grosjean, had a ropey start to the year but
hard racing in Bahrain
netted him some nice points and may bode well for later on.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unless the big upgrades planned for Spain
work well, immediately, they're out of both title races. If they work well then
there's a chance that they could feature (worth recalling Ferrari's 2012
upgrades at this time worked very nicely and really helped Alonso out).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Toro Rosso:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A bit of an anonymous car. Not bad enough to be noteworthy,
not good enough to be remarkable. Aside from a strong performance by Ricciardo
in China, that
is.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ricciardo had a great qualifying and strong race in China
to start and finish seventh, but Vergne's sole point came from a tenth-placed
finish. However, they'll be glad to be ahead of the Williams team and
Gutierrez.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Definition of a midfield team. In the running for occasional
points, unlikely to leave in Q1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sauber:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Very disappointing after a cracking season last year, which
saw them score four podiums. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Gutierrez struggles to escape Q1, and although I rate
Hulkenberg the German's also failed to score many points. Qualifying is too
weak and they need to improve.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the possible exception of Williams, Sauber should be
the most disappointed of the midfield teams, compared to last season. And, if
he doesn’t improve, I'd fire Gutierrez.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Williams:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The most disappointing midfield team. They underperformed
last year with a strong car, but this year the car's gone dramatically
backwards and it may well be the worst team excepting Caterham and Marussia.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bottas was tipped by many, including me, to be rookie of the
year but he's finding it difficult to escape Q1. Maldonado's harder to assess.
He hasn't had any accidents but it's hard to say whether it's down to him or
the car that he hasn't scored a single point in four races.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Williams can't improve the car significantly they may
wish to jack in the 2013 development and focus heavily on 2014.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Marussia:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
They seem to have taken a fair step forwards and now have
KERS, but still seem a distance away from troubling the scorers which, in their
fourth season, is not great.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Jules Bianchi is perhaps the best performing of the new
drivers, regularly outclassing Chilton and both Caterhams by a large margin. He
may well get a drive elsewhere, especially if Gutierrez and Bottas don't
improve.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Caterham:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The worst team on the grid, although they did have a better
race in Bahrain.
Pic jumped ship from Marussia but that doesn't look so wise now and he, along
with Van Der Garde, have seen the ghost of driver past (Kovalainen) return to
provide some development assistance. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Their main hope is that next year there are significant
regulation changes. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Incidentally, I've backed (with a small stake) Raikkonen for
the title at 7.4. My thinking is that his car is kind to its tyres, he's very
fast and very reliable and I expect him to be in the hunt throughout the
season. Hopefully that'll mean his odds will shorten nicely to enable hedging.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Spanish Grand Prix is next up (10-12 May). I'd expect
hefty upgrades for just about everyone, but perhaps the most interesting team
to watch out for is McLaren. The order may well be rejigged a bit, but I'd be
surprised if there were enormous changes.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As always, comments, tips, questions and cogitations are all
welcome in the comments section.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-55399204375269060642013-04-21T15:12:00.000+01:002013-04-21T15:12:48.078+01:00Bahrain: post-race analysis <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
A slightly frustrating race, from both a spectator and
gambler perspective. Alonso's DRS problems robbed us of any chance of a fight
for the win and Massa's double tyre
issue prevented him from getting anywhere near the podium. However, congratulations
to Mr. Putney, whose Vettel bet paid off handsomely.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The start saw Rosberg get away cleanly, Alonso pass Vettel
and then lose second to the German swiftly. It was clear early on that
Rosberg's primary direction of travel would be backwards, with both the others
much faster. However, Alonso's DRS became jammed open and his hope of victory
disappeared like a virgin in a brothel. He managed to reach the pits, they
manually slammed it shut, but then it came open again and a second pit stop was
necessary. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This screwed up his race. Not only was his first pit much
earlier than he would have liked, the second cost him another 19 seconds or so
and lack of DRS cost him pace and overtaking opportunities.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'm not sure if Stefano Domenicali spent the weekend punching
mirrors but Massa had problems too.
His front wing was damaged slightly, he suffered massive rear tyre
delamination[sp] (not just degradation, the whole thing was falling to pieces,
akin to Hamilton's practice
problem) and then suffered another significant rear tyre issue later.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel sailed away into the sunset, but the competition was
much closer behind him. The Lotus team had great strategy and it's nice to see
Grosjean return to some form after a quiet start to the season. He took the
last podium spot, behind his team mate, away from Di Resta, which must be
galling for the Scot. However, fourth is still a strong finish.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton's race
was a bit unusual. He seemed destined for a poor return as he was 8-10
throughout, but then his tyre management seemed to pay off and in the latter
stages he ascended to fifth, after a titanic tussle with Webber. The Australian
also lost out, possibly on the last lap, to Perez. After Martin Whitmarsh said
the Mexican needed to 'get his elbows out' the young driver certainly seems to
have done that, passing multiple drivers, driving hard and, arguably, dirty.
Button and Alonso both complained about his behaviour on the radio, but that's
impossible to assess just listening to it on the radio.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso finished eighth, which isn't bad considering his
problems but it seemed that a sixth place could've been possible before Perez
passed him fairly late on.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rosberg had a bloody awful race, going all the way back to
ninth. Given his team mate started there but rose to fifth it must be pretty
disheartening. Chewing up the tyres remains the problem of Mercedes. Button got
the last point, but he looked like a higher points position was achievable
earlier in the race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sutil was unlucky to finish thirteenth. He had a puncture very
early on, and that basically ruined his race. Massa
ended up fifteenth, but that wasn't his fault. Pic (in the Caterham) managed to
beat Gutierrez (Spanish for "Fired after one season if he doesn't
improve"), which is a nice little result for the team.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Had he not had terminal woe, I think Alonso would've
contested the win with Vettel. However, I still think that Mr. Putney's bet on
Vettel was better judged than mine on Alonso, because Alonso was 2.6 and Vettel
4.1 (well, that and Vettel actually won, but you see what I mean). I was quite
surprised that whilst some (especially Mercedes) were chewing their tyres the
Red Bull seemed to have no real issue.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Worth also remarking that the Lotus remained kind to its
tyres, and a double podium finish is very tasty for them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After four races, here are the standings:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel 77</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen 67</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton 50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso 47</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And Constructors':</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull 109</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus 93</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari 77</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari had a shocker of a day, but it was all bad luck.
Their car is fast and pretty good on its tyres, and both its drivers are doing
well. There's also team harmony, unlike in Red Bull and perhaps McLaren. If
Grosjean can maintain his form then Lotus could yet challenge for the
Constructors' title. I still think Vettel, Alonso and Raikkonen will be the
main contenders for the Drivers' title.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'm a bit irked that a bet which I think was reasonable and
could've come off didn't due to bad luck. However, luck's all part of gambling
and over the course of a season these things tend to even themselves out.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With a standard £10 stake, this weekend was a loss of 46
pence, with hedging, and £20 without (first weekend where there's a divergence
between hedging and not). After a tasty start in Australia
things haven't been so good, but it was nice to get the first qualifying tip
right and overall the first four races are green either way.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'll be doing my usual mini-review of the first part of the
season between now and Spain,
which is in 3 weeks. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-12805048433436245012013-04-20T17:27:00.000+01:002013-04-20T17:27:55.071+01:00Bahrain: pre-race<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
The failure Hamilton
suffered during the final session of practice was due to high tyre degradation,
it turns out.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first qualifying bet of the year was green, with
hedging, and red without. Reasonably happy with that, though obviously I
would've preferred Alonso to be on pole.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q1 was as tedious as usual, with the exception of a
statistical quirk. Both Williams drivers had identical lap times. Bottas went
through because he set his first, Maldonado joined Gutierrez (who has not been
very impressive so far this year) and the pointless teams.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q2 saw the remaining Williams and Sauber exit, and likewise
both Toro Rossos. Perez and Grosjean, unlike their team mates, both failed to
reach the final phase of qualifying.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q3 happily saw everyone actually trying to set a fast lap
time. Hamilton's 5 place gearbox
penalty and Webber's 3 place penalty afforded the Force Indias a great opportunity
to be higher than they usually would be, and Massa
slyly went out on hard tyres, knowing this. Rosberg was fastest, slightly
surprisingly, with Vettel second. Alonso was third and decided against
finishing his final lap. Hamilton and Webber are next, but both will be
shuffled down, so Massa will start
fourth, alongside his team mate. Di Resta and Sutil are next, with Raikkonen a
surprisingly lowly ninth and Button a less surprisingly lowly tenth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given long run pace I think Ferrari are sitting pretty. The
Lotus is also quick but they start ninth (eighth, upon checking, due to the
penalties) and eleventh. Red Bull may be a tiny bit slower than the two rival
teams and will probably suffer worse tyre degradation. Not sure why the Lotus
is so slow. They may've cocked up the setup, or made it very biased towards the
race rather than qualifying. We've seen in the recent past Raikkonen climb from
seventh to first, so they may yet do well.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With grid penalties, here's how the top 10 stacks up:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rosberg</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa (hard
tyre)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Di Resta</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sutil</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Webber</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Button</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes are worried about their rear tyre wear, as
epitomised by Hamilton's problems
in P3. Red Bull seem to have worse tyre wear and slightly slower pace than
Ferrari, and Alonso is driving very well. He improved in both races he
finished, and I've therefore backed him at 2.62 for the win (hedged at 1.25)
despite my dislike of short odds.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As Mr. Nigel pointed out in the comments of the
pre-qualifying piece, Lotus really seem to have lost a lot of pace. I can't see
the Force Indias going further ahead, and expect Rosberg to go backwards. Hamilton
will be interesting to watch as he's fast but the tyres might not be his friend
on Sunday. It'll also be fascinating to see how Massa's
oddball strategy plays out. Fourth on hard tyres is a good place to start, but
he may suffer slightly at the start (softer tyres start better).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hard to try and bet on, but the grid is set up nicely for
the race. I'm hoping for an exciting, and profitable, race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-77609875218184018992013-04-20T10:18:00.000+01:002013-04-20T10:22:10.549+01:00Bahrain: pre-qualifying<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Seems that articles put up on Monday become auto-moderated
by Friday, so when timezones mean I won't offer a qualifying tip I'll put the
early discussion up on Monday, and when that's not the case I'll put it up on
Tuesday.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The tyres for Bahrain
have been changed from soft-hard to medium-hard. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P1 saw Massa
edge Alonso, with Rosberg, Vettel and Di Resta following. Button was sixth, and
followed by Webber, Sutil, Raikkonen and Grosjean. Hamilton
was on a fast lap but eased off, so his 13th is not representative.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P2 Raikkonen topped the timesheets ahead of Webber,
Vettel, Alonso and Di Resta. Massa
was sixth, then came Grosjean, Rosberg, Sutil and Hamilton.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the long runs it seems to be between Ferrari and
Raikkonen for the best pace, with the Lotus perhaps a shade easier on the
tyres. It also looks like Force India,
especially Di Resta, are in good shape.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P3 Vettel had a lap ruined by traffic so his pace is not
perhaps the most representative, unhelpfully. Alonso was fastest, then Vettel,
Webber, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Grosjean, Sutil, Di Resta, Rosberg and Hulkenberg.
Massa, surprisingly, was just 11th.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tyre wear will
be critical for the race, so that's something else to watch. Red Bull have had
worse degradation than other teams and the Lotus is nice to tyres, so that's
worth considering.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Gary Anderson was of the view that Vettel's quick lap still
wouldn't've been fast enough. Alonso was 4.5 for pole, which I backed immediately (hedge
at evens), but his odds then lengthened (5.3 at the time of writing). So, I'd
back at 4.5 or longer and hedge at evens (for the record it'll count as a 4.5
tip).<br />
<br />
Updated extra bit: he's 5.5 at Ladbrokes. So, if you haven't bet yet, I'd advocate backing that and hedging on Betfair. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Several other potential bets interested me (backing either
Force India to reach Q3, laying Button to do so) but none had appealing odds.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So a single, and unusually quick, tip. Alonso to get pole at
4.5, hedged at evens. Let's hope the Prancing Horse proves faster than the Red
Bull.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-63606280790586857402013-04-15T08:24:00.000+01:002013-04-15T08:24:35.501+01:00Bahrain: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
Yes, the Chinese Grand Prix was only yesterday but Bahrain
is only a few days away, so the discussion starts now. After Bahrain
there's a bit of a break to the European season, and in that gap I'll write a
brief review of the season so far (as usual).
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For what it's worth, here's my approximate running order for
the teams:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Qualifying:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes-Red Bull</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Race:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull-Lotus</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, it's fair to say it's very tight, and that I
could've written 'Raikkonen' instead of 'Lotus'. Grosjean needs to hurry up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bahrain
is amongst the most boring of circuits and, without checking, I think it
might've been the only race last year that was properly tedious. Cars tend to
get spaced out very quickly, probably due to bad circuit design, and overtaking
is harder than a man trapped in a lift with the Promiscuous Liaison Committee
of the Swedish Nymphomaniac Association. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Historically it's been good for Ferrari (Massa
especially) although recently, possibly due to the Prancing Horse being a bit
lame, this has not been quite the case. They have a better car now, though.
Upgrades will be minimal from China
so pace should be the same, but the circuit works the rears more than the front
tyres, the opposite of Shanghai
(which is peculiar in this regard).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anyway, time for me to stop rambling. Comments, insights,
tips and guessing how Webber's car will mysteriously fail to finish the race
are all welcome.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-16182747052438124162013-04-14T11:59:00.000+01:002013-04-14T11:59:28.327+01:00China: post-race analysis <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
A great race to watch, but the betting did not go so well.
In short, my judgement was entirely wrong and the hedge didn't get matched. It
was a tricky call, but I clearly leapt the wrong way.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen had a shocker of a start and the two Ferraris had
a flyer, as is so often the case. Webber started from the pits with brand new
soft tyres.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The varying strategies makes it hard to give a proper
chronological account of the race, but I'll try to cover the major points.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton looked
off the pace, a little, at the start. He couldn't break away from Alonso (then
second, with Massa third) and both
Ferraris passed him at one corner. After the first stops of the soft chaps
Hulkenberg led (annoyingly, this may've prevented the Vettel hedge getting
matched) with Vettel second and Button third. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso pitted before Massa,
but when the Brazilian came out of the pits he was well down the field and,
although he recovered somewhat, that did mark the end of his challenge for a
podium.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rosberg had a dire day. He fell down the order early on and
then had some sort of mechanical issue and had to retire. Just as bad was
Webber. He made good progress early on with his new soft tyres, but after a pit
stop either something broke or a tyre was incorrectly attached. He was slowly
returning to the pits when a rear tyre broke free and rolled across the track,
right in front of Vettel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To add insult to injury, Webber has a 3 place grid penalty
for Bahrain due
to a failed pass attempt on Vergne which resulted in a collision. It was
perhaps a shade clumsy but I felt it was a racing incident.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sutil also retired after he was taken roughly from behind by
Gutierrez, whose approach to cornering speed at the hairpin can be most
positively described as creatively optimistic.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Meanwhile at the front (in real terms if not track position)
Alonso was flying, and a mile ahead of everybody else. He was told not to push
after setting two or three fastest laps in a row, and reported back that he
wasn't, which shows just how good the Ferrari was. Important to remember that China
is all about wear on the front tyres. Maybe this will bode well for Hungary
which is a circuit dominated by front end grip.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Behind Hamilton and Raikkonen were tussling for second and
third, with the Finn ahead in the closing stages. Vettel was second on track
but had to pit late on for the soft tyre. The last few laps were very exciting
as he rapidly closed by 3-4s a lap on Hamilton,
but just didn't make it by two-tenths on the line.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the end, Button was fifth. That's pretty good considering
the relative pace, of lack thereof, of the McLaren to the other top teams. In
addition it's worth pointing out that Button went for 2 stops, whereas Vettel
(just ahead) and Hulkenberg (tenth) went for 3. Hard to say which strategy was
better in the end. It may be that Button's driving style and/or the degradation
on the Red Bull dictated the strategy.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa got sixth,
which is ok but no more than that, and Ricciardo should be very happy with
seventh. Di Resta got a solid eighth, with Grosjean ninth and Hulkenberg tenth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hulkenberg may be a bit disappointed given he was running
with Vettel for much of the race. This season Grosjean has had quieter starts,
but also quieter races. He seems to have lost some pace, although that could be
down to the new car/tyres.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After three races here are the standings:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel 52</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen 49</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso 43</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton 40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa 30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Webber 26</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given Alonso had a DNF in Malaysia
he'll be very happy to be just nine points off the lead. I suspect the top
three, possibly with Hamilton as
well, will end up fighting for the title again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Constructors:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull 78</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari 73</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus 60</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes 52</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Because the Mercedes is perhaps half a step back on pace and
Grosjean is a bit slow so far I suspect the title will be down to Red Bull and
Ferrari, with Lotus and Mercedes battling for three and four. Personally, I'd
be inclined to back Ferrari over Red Bull. The cars are comparable in terms of
pace, but I think the two Ferrari drivers are working well and working
together.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'm a bit disappointed that my judgement was entirely wrong,
but betting's very black and white, so at least I don't lose double my stake
for being enormously incorrect. After a good start (with an uncharacteristic
pre-qualifying race tip) the season has returned to the slightly dodgy
tradition with which I tend to start F1 betting. However, I do think I've got a
better handle on where the teams stack up, and there's unlikely to be such a
vast yawning chasm between the two compounds in Bahrain,
which should make the race, hopefully, easier to forecast.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Incidentally, half the field (about 6 cars) are under
investigation for passing under yellow flags, which waved for a few laps near
the hairpin at the end of the long straight. This includes both Red Bulls. Not
sure of the penalty, if there is one, but a grid penalty or time added to the China
result seem likeliest.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bahrain
is just next week, and as P3 ends at 10am
I'm hoping to have a qualifying tip as well as one (or more) for the race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-70783908014424389962013-04-13T12:11:00.000+01:002013-04-13T12:11:34.173+01:00China: pre-race<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
That must be one of the most boring qualifying sessions in
recent years. On the betting side, I'm glad Massa
was eminently hedgeable before the session because I doubt he would've been
during it. I also wish I'd hedged a bit more to be green either way, but that's
something to remember for next time.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q1 saw the entire pit lane fall asleep. After about half the
time was over they came out and we had 10 minutes of the usual business, with
the pointless teams being joined, again, by Bottas and Gutierrez. Excepting
Bianchi, the rookies do not seem to be shining this year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Q2 was a bit more surprising as it saw both Force Indias jettisoned. Perez
could only manage 12th (behind Di Resta and ahead of Sutil) with Maldonado and
Vergne bottom of the timesheet. Fourteenth was occupied by Webber, as he
suffered a dastardly fuel problem. It's not entirely clear what the situation
is at the time of writing, but I'd expected him to be put to the back of the
grid.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q3 even managed to be dull. Nobody came out for the first
half, although there was some interest when three drivers (Button, Vettel and
Hulkenberg, who did well to make the last session) decided to go out on the
medium tyre. Hamilton got a great
pole, and Raikkonen claimed 2nd after flying in under the radar. Alonso could
only manage 3rd, but he may well be happy with that given he beat Massa
for the first time in five qualifying sessions. Rosberg, who missed out on some
setup time due to a P3 problem was 4th then came Massa,
Grosjean and Ricciardo, who did very well to reach the session at all. Button
came 8th because he was the only chap who went out on the medium tyre and set a
time (a comedy time 31 seconds off the pace, but still), whereas Vettel and
Hulkenberg trundled around and didn't bother setting a lap time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There's a huge divergence between the tyres despite them
being adjacent in the quartet of Pirelli's dry range. The soft is crumbly like
cheese and will not be the tyre of choice in the race. The medium is a bit
slower but surprisingly durable. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The race is expected to be dry, so those starting on softs
will probably pit pronto and those who opted for medium will probably try and
leave the soft tyre until the very last laps. The Force Indias and Perez will
lose, to a degree at least, the usual bonus of being top of the Q2 departure list
because the three chaps ahead of them will start on the medium tyre (as Vettel
and Hulkenberg did not set a time they could go for the soft tyre initially,
but that would be rather a surprise).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari, and Massa
in particular, seemed to be better on the soft tyres with high fuel in P2 than
anyone else. This will help, but medium tyre pace and wear will matter more.
That was pretty close amongst all the top teams although Ferrari seemed a bit
off the pace. Mercedes had very bad soft tyre wear in P2, no idea if they
managed to fix it later (they were good on the medium tyre, in terms of pace,
however).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Interestingly, if you believe that starting on the medium
gives a serious advantage, that would make McLaren and Force India
contenders to top score, although Button sounded very downbeat (0.8s off the
pace on medium) after qualifying. If it turns out that grid position matters
more then Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari are set fair.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The race will be 56 laps, I think, with 4-10 laps expected
for the first stint on softs with the medium expected to be good for circa 20 laps.
So, a two-stopper seems on the cards, regardless of starting tyre, although
three or four are possible.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Webber starts from the back after being penalised for lack
of fuel. This does not mean he's out of the running even for a podium, although
obviously it's a big setback. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was thinking about looking at McLaren to top score or for
Button to get a podium, but he sounded very downbeat during his post-qualifying
interview (I missed the last 20 minutes and just caught it on the iPlayer). 0.8s
off the pace on medium tyres is significant, although if he can be kinder to
the tyres and make one fewer stop then that'd make up for it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Apologies for the forthcoming ramble. I'm hoping it'll help
me decide what to bet on.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The race, as is often the case, is very hard to call but we
should have a clear(ish) idea of how it'll go initially. After the start the
top 7 (all on the soft tyres with which they qualified) will pit fairly shortly
(Horner estimated 4-10 laps). This will automatically mean that those from 8th
and down (Button, Vettel, Hulkenberg et al.) will be in the lead. Now, the soft
tyre is reputedly a second a lap faster, but degrades at about half a second a
lap. This varies a bit and Massa
was impressive on soft tyres in P2 but the broad picture is accurate. So, after
4-10 laps the top 7 on the grid will probably pit and come out into traffic (I
imagine almost everyone 8 and lower will start on the medium tyre). Not sure
how long a pit stop takes in China
but about 18s give or take seems reasonable. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, the traffic and potentially one fewer pit stop should
give the medium-starters a strategic advantage. Weighed against that is the possible
pace advantage of the Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After the first stops of the softs we should expected
Vettel, Button, Hulkenberg etc to lead the race for a few laps whilst they stay
out and take advantage of their durable rubber. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's very tough to try and call whether the top 3 on the
grid stand a better chance of victory than the highest-placed medium tyre
drivers. I've decided (after prolonged contemplation) to go for Vettel for the
win at 7, with a hedge set up at 2.5.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There's the 50/50 possibility that the medium-starters will
have a pit stop in hand or just benefit from the soft tyre being used last
(when fuel loads are light and degradation is a little less), and I think it's
reasonably likely that he'll either be leading or in the top 3 after the
initial stops of those who begin on the soft tyre, which will hopefully see the
hedge matched.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton made a
slight jibe about Vettel being a lucky driver. Let's hope that's true.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-9064514214020205482013-04-12T09:12:00.000+01:002013-04-12T09:12:17.421+01:00China: pre-qualifying<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
As suggested in the comments (by Mr. Nigel, I think) Massa
did indeed prove to be faster in practice than the markets suspected. More on
that below.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The weather for both sessions was entirely dry, and is
expected to remain so for the entire weekend.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P1 Rosberg led Hamilton,
and then Webber led Vettel. Alonso was fifth, followed by Button, Massa,
Sutil, Grosjean and Di Resta.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In P2 Massa was fastest, followed by Raikkonen and Alonso.
Rosberg, Webber and Button were next, followed by Hamilton, Sutil, Di Resta and
Vettel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, the Force Indias seem to have kept their good pace,
although we'll have to wait and see how their pit stops go. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The tyres are soft and medium. There's a pretty substantial
pace difference so, at the sharp end, qualifying will be on the softs. However,
the medium tyre lasts far better, so 2 stops seem possible. Starting 11th or
12th the drivers may be tempted by going for a long medium stint. The potential
problem is that they'll be slower, get passed and end up not making much headway.
On the other hand, they'll have perhaps a pit stop in hand, which is a big
advantage.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I caught the back end of P2 and it seems that the Ferraris
are perhaps best in terms of outright pace. However, because medium tyre pace
is pretty close between all the top teams this means that there could be an
extra premium on qualifying and the start. Mercedes also look good, with
Rosberg ahead of Hamilton in both
sessions to date.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, it would be foolish to write off Vettel's prospects
(although Webber could be in with a chance of pole). It's interesting that at
Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull the driver who has not won a championship is
putting in better times than the one who has (although Alonso was faster than
Massa in P1). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the moment I suspect Massa,
Vettel, Webber and Rosberg are the prime contenders for pole. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McLaren's looking alright on the longer runs but it's
qualifying pace is not looking quite so good. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
No tip for qualifying, as P3 is 4am
to 5am and qualifying itself starts at 7am.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa may
actually have a shot at the win, if he qualifies well and Alonso's a bit
further back the team can hardly afford to tell him to back off. He was
something like 38 for the win and 32 for pole. I put on a tiny sum for the pole
and am looking to hedge before P3 (probably do it so that I'm evens for any
other winner and ahead for Massa).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Good to see the pb2 early discussion thread yielding a
couple of good trading bets.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-7555010439800390462013-04-08T18:13:00.000+01:002013-04-08T18:13:53.135+01:00China: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, it's three weeks from Malaysia
to the next race (this weekend), but I'd be surprised if Webber's best friends
forever with Vettel. Given Red Bull appear to be offering no punishment at all
Horner looks pretty weak. Even Schumacher obeyed team orders on the rare
occasions they were against him (I believe he did this the year he broke his
leg and Irvine was Ferrari's hope
for the title).
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In other news, Claire Williams has been appointed deputy
team principal and heir apparent to her father, Sir Frank. However, from what
I've read this is not a pat on the head sort of appointment, and she really
deserves it. So, in a few years (assuming Kaltenborn still leads Sauber) we
could have two female team principals. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Early forecasts all point to the race being dry.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Speculation, opinions, predictions and the like all welcome
in the comments. [NB I've been unable to get confirmation, despite asking a few
times, that the threads are being monitored by a moderator, although last time
round the spam was pleasingly axed pretty quickly].</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-7043662343831788622013-03-24T11:19:00.000+00:002013-03-24T11:19:46.951+00:00Malaysia: post-race analysis<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another exciting race, from the sounds of it, but the bet
didn't come off. Massa had a poor
start, went backwards rapidly and never really seemed in a position to get a
podium. So, a significant misjudgement on my part. However, given that my
seasons typically start with a sequence of red races, one green and one red
isn't too bad.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The race itself was odd. In fact, I think we learnt a lot
about relative pace but the final result didn't necessarily bear too close a
relationship to that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was wet on part of the track at the start so everyone
began on intermediates. Alonso tagged Vettel early on, broke one of the
Ferrari's two nose-struts and opted not to pit (still too wet for a tyre change
so he wanted to eke out a few laps). His nose ended up snapped and he beached
the car in gravel shortly after declining to enter the pits.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa,
annoyingly, had a very bad first few laps and went inexorably backwards.
Raikkonen also fell to 13th, but Button had a better start.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Mercedes were fast. They ended up 3rd and 4th, but that
was at least partly because Hamilton
was under-fuelled (the team may've expected more rain and possible safety car
appearances) and had to drive carefully to the end and Rosberg, despite appeals
on the radio, was told to hold station in 4th (this was near the end of the
race). At stages Hamilton seemed
like he'd be fast enough to take second (from Vettel, at the time) and Rosberg
also had good pace. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ferraris are hard to assess as Alonso exited early and Massa
never seemed up to the pace of the front-runners. It may simply be that the car
didn't like the half-wet, half-dry conditions of the first few laps and that
losing so many places (and with only one dry line initially) made it hard for
the Brazilian to recover.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sauber had a nice racy day. Hulkenberg was impressive,
particularly when the track was in its awkward half-wet, half-dry phase. He
ended up in 8th, and drove well. Gutierrez was 12th, which is ok for a rookie
in his second race.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Force India
seem to have taken to copying McLaren from last season. Good pace from their
cars but two weird pit stops took ages (one per car). Each was subsequently
retired, perhaps because the long stops had damaged them (could be an issue
with the single wheel nut. If that fails then the car becomes a three-wheeler
and it's safer to just retire it). Strong pace, good drivers, no points.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus had a steady rather than spectacular race. Grosjean
and Raikkonen made progress, but it was slow, and 6th and 7th (the Frenchman
leading) is alright but no more than that. It may be that being soft on the
tyres in the dry means they struggle to get heat into them when it's slippery. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McLaren had a bad points result (Perez got 2 for being 9th)
but their performance was actually better than that. Button was in 5th, on
pace, and would've almost certainly kept that had he not had a pit stop problem
(the team only fit 3 wheels). He stopped in the lane, got pushed back and the
4th added, but a minute was lost and the car was later retired (probably so
they can fiddle with bits for the next race without paying a penalty). However,
make no mistake, the car was off the pace of the front-runners but still
significantly improved from Australia.
With 3 weeks to the next race there's every chance they'll close the gap a
little more.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of the other teams, Ricciardo was near and in the points for
much of the race but retired, and Bianchi continues to impress in the Marussia.
So much so there's talk of Kovalainen being re-employed as a driver by Caterham,
who are worried they'll lose the estimated £30m for 10th in the Constructors'
to their Marussia rivals.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, the story of the day was Red Bull. Fastest at the
front and only occasionally troubled by Hamilton's
Mercedes, Vettel was told to stay behind Webber. He didn't, there was much
tussling and eventually he got ahead and stayed there. I think Webber had been
told (whilst leading) to turn the engine down and that Vettel would stay
second. Not a happy camp, despite a 1-2 finish.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not seen the highlights at the time of writing, but
apparently the driver reactions were:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel - bit ashamed of himself</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Webber - pissed</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton - bit
embarrassed, felt Rosberg should've had the podium </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here's the Drivers' standings after 2/19 rounds:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vettel 40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Raikkonen 31</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Webber 26</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hamilton 25</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Massa 22</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso 18</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Constructors':</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Red Bull 66</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lotus 40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ferrari 40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mercedes 37</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, it's very tight, especially for second in the
Constructors'. I hope it's bone dry in China
so we can get an even better handle on who's where in terms of pace. With luck,
I'll also have moderator powers then so I can axe any spam comments.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We visit China
in 3 weeks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-48076789663318808602013-03-23T14:29:00.001+00:002013-03-23T14:29:46.979+00:00Malaysia: pre-race<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
Qualifying was interesting, as the first session and a half
was dry, and the latter was wet. Not torrential, but wet enough for
intermediates.
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q1 saw the pointless teams depart, although Bianchi seems to
really be punching above his weight with the Marussia's times. Bottas and
Vergne also left the show at this point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q2 began dry and then became wet. Di Resta's team decided
against an early banker, and lived to regret it as he lacked the dry track time
to make it into the top 10. McLaren were delighted to get both cars into the
last session, and Lotus were disappointed Grosjean only managed 11th. There's
no tactical advantage to that in the race as Q3 was also wet so every car on
the grid can pick and choose their tyres for tomorrow. The Saubers, Maldonado
and Ricciardo also failed to reach the top 10.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Q3 was entirely wet, so we got a decent look at the pace on
inters. Vettel remained tediously competent and got pole, with Massa
again out-qualifying his team mate for the Ferraris to start right behind the
German. Hamilton will be happy in
4th, but Webber probably won't be chuffed with 5th, and he starts alongside
Rosberg. Raikkonen was slower than expected in 7th (although that's where he
started from last week), and is followed by Button, Sutil and Perez.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After the session Raikkonen was given a 3 place grid penalty
(so starting 10th) for impeding another driver in qualifying.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rain is hard to call, but I think it's probably odds-on
tomorrow. However, it looks like being wet but not torrential, as per today. If
that's the case then the pace in Q3 should provide an approximate guide to race
pace when it turns soggy (the track was constantly drying which led to
artificially enormous gaps in the times). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Took me a while to come up with something, and ended up
backing Massa at 2.64 for a podium.
I've set up a hedge at 1.3. The Ferrari looks good wet and dry, and Massa's
been driving well. Off the line team orders can't work (if he went slowly to
let Alonso past he'd be swamped by a dozen other cars) so that shouldn't be an
issue.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, let's hope Ferrari's form continues.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-7332147742792469992013-03-22T08:08:00.001+00:002013-03-22T08:08:44.997+00:00Malaysia: pre-qualifying <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
First off, a service announcement. As will have been
noticed, there's a significant increase in spam comments this year compared to
last. I don't have the ability to delete these myself, at the time of writing,
but am hoping to acquire it. With luck, this will be in the next day or two,
but there's a three week gap to China
so I should have it by then.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It turns out that Webber's bad start was at least partly due
to an ECU (electronic box thingy) that McLaren provide to all teams failing.
This is a very rare failure and they've apologised to Red Bull:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21853491">http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21853491</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rain is possible for qualifying and the race, and the tyres
used will be medium and hard. It's worth remembering that without rain Malaysia
is very unlikely to see a safety car because the track is wide and there are
tons of run-off areas. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Both practice sessions were dry.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P1 saw Webber fastest, followed by Raikkonen and then
Vettel. Alonso, Rosberg and Sutil were next, with Massa,
Di Resta, Hamilton and Grosjean
rounding out the top 10.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P2 had Raikkonen top, with Vettel second, and the Ferraris
of Massa and Alonso next. Webber, Grosjean, Rosberg, Di Resta, Hamilton and
Sutil finish off the top 10.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At this stage Raikkonen looks good, as do the Ferraris and
Red Bulls. It seems Force India
are continuing to punch above their weight and the McLarens remain rubbish
(11/13 and 11/12).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
P3 is from 5am to 6am UK
time, and qualifying starts at 8am, so
I won't be offering a tip on that. At the time of writing a thunderstorm is
slightly odds-on. If you believe that then you may wish to consider a McLaren
bet, as their car appeared more competitive in the wet last week.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6413493203849579481.post-63268966479305415932013-03-19T08:01:00.000+00:002013-03-19T08:01:01.068+00:00Malaysia: early discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This weekend we're off in Kuala Lumpur,
where the medium and hard tyres will be used.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Will Red Bull be able to qualify as well on the medium
compound? Will Lotus be able to make one fewer stop than everyone else? Will it
rain? Will McLaren/Williams make some progress in the short space of time they
have between the last race and the next?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'll check nearer the time but right now it seems that rain
is possible over the weekend. It's worth remembering that without rain the
circuit is probably second only to Hungary
in its unlikelihood to have a safety car (flat, very wide circuit with lots of
run-off). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Comments, thoughts, predictions, tips and so forth all
welcome in the comments.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morris Dancer</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com19