General Election 2015 : The (Very) Early Assessment

First of all, credit where it is rightly due.
To The Guardian Newspaper for their exceptionally speedy turnaround of the Boundary Commissioners inital proposals and Google Earth map file of the proposed constituencies, Anthony Wells for his even faster conversion of those proposals into constituency estimates (for all the parties not just Con, Lab and Lib Dem) and finally the Sheffield University Spatial Geography department for converting the BBC's election colours into both HTML code and RGB codes.

So, England is to lose some 30 seats and have 502 seats which according to the calculations would see 293 Conservatives elected (including the Speaker), 173 Labour MP's elected and 36 Liberal Democrats elected (based on the 2010 election) with Labour being the biggest casualties losing some 18 seats (compared to the Conservatives losing 5 and the Lib Dems losing 7), but where does this put us in the context of a general election.

Well, as we don't know what the Scottish or Welsh proposals are going to be yet, we cannot say for sure, but we can say that based on the announced reductions you need 301 seats to gain an overall majority in the new House (down from the current 326) and therefore the Conservatives (who were 19 short in 2010) are already only 8 short of an overall majority (with Wales and Scotland still to announce), but as there is only one Conservative MP in Scotland (which is likely to go) and based on the assessments of Wales in the past suggesting only three Conservative MP's, let's work on the assumption the Conservatives need five seats for an overall majority and 30 for a good working majority of 50 or so. What seats might attract their attention?

Well, the first thing to note is that the top 30 English Conservative targets are 67% Labour and 33% Lib Dem and as we saw in the locals this year, Con vs Lib Dem battles do seem to side with the Conservatives, therefore the Conservatives have their overall majority. However as we also saw in the locals, there was an almighty swing from Conservative to Labour, suggesting that it will be Labour on the advance. Current estimate: Con 303 Lab 173 Lib Dem 26

Now, for Labour to win an overall majority they have really got to go some. They need a rather staggering 128 gains just to get an overall majority of 1 (and a further 15 - 25 gains in order to get an working majority). Remind you of a certain David Cameron anyone? So what do these 128 gains comprise, well, thanks to the changes rather a large number of current Labour seats. For instance, number 10 is Hull West and Hessle, 37 is Southampton, Test, 40 is Walsall South, 44 is Birmingham, Erdington and 124 is Walsall North. Number 128 is Bosworth which would go Labour on a swing of 11.73%. The latest polls are suggesting a swing of about 5% (59 gains) but with the Lib Dems being hit the most (11% swing from Lib Dem to Lab) so based on that the tally would be: Con 249 Lab 237 Lib Dem 16

And we cannot rule out the odd suprise along the way. For instance, the Greens may have lost their Brighton, Pavillion seat to Labour, but as their number one target who is to say that they can do it again and win the new Brighton, Pavillion and Hove or even take a second seat in Norwich South (7.22% swing from Lib Dems). So as things stand at the moment, my inital suggestion is that in England the Conservatives and Labour would be virtually neck and neck with the Conservatives ahead of Labour by about 10 but with Labour certainly assured at least 50 seats in Scotland and Wales (taking them up to 287) can Ed Milliband encourage Labour to take those last 14 gains and regain a Labour overall majority?

Who now hates Nick Clegg?

Last November, I posed the question on pb2 “Who hates Nick Clegg?”

http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-hates-nick-clegg.html

My analysis showed an intriguing split, with Labour supporters remarkably united in their disdain for the Lib Dem leader. If Nick Clegg is not going to add as a serious drag on his party’s polling, he needs to improve his public standing before the next election.

Have Nick Clegg’s ratings started to improve?

No. The two pollsters who regularly poll on the standing of the party leaders, YouGov and IPSOS-MORI, offer no comfort to Nick Clegg. Both have issued new polls on this subject this week. By 67% to 22%, the Great British public as polled by YouGov think that he is doing badly rather than well. According to IPSOS-MORI, 59% are dissatisfied with the way that he is doing his job as Deputy Prime Minister and only 31% are satisfied. These figures are actually considerably worse than in November last year.

Where has this deterioration come from?

Impressively, Nick Clegg seems to have been able to alienate still more Labour supporters in the last 10 months. IPSOS-MORI now find that fully 78% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied, up from 71%, and 90% of YouGov respondents with a Labour allegiance now think that he is doing badly, up from 87% last year.

He still gets the nod from the largest part of Conservative supporters with IPSOS-MORI (49% to 41%) and his figures are a respectable 39% to 51% with Conservatives with YouGov. But to put this in context, Conservative supporters still rave about David Cameron – fully 94% of YouGov Conservative supporters think that David Cameron is doing well and 78% of IPSOS-MORI Conservatives are satisfied with him. Nick Clegg is standing in his shadow, so far as Conservatives are concerned.

It gets worse. According to YouGov, 28% of current Lib Dem supporters now think the Lib Dem leader is doing badly. In November last year, this figure was 14%. So this has doubled in 10 months. IPSOS-MORI shows a less dramatic move in dissatisfaction among Lib Dem supporters – up from 34% to 42% since November. But it’s unlikely that Nick Clegg will take much comfort from that.

Has the intensity of anger diminished?

Not obviously. YouGov allow respondents to say whether they think Nick Clegg is doing badly or very badly. 59% of Labour supporters say that they think that he is doing very badly. That is actually a slight improvement on the 61% who thought this last year, but the Lib Dems would need to be very creative to turn that into a bar chart. Meanwhile, fully 36% of all respondents now think that he’s doing very badly, up from 27% last year.

Conclusion

Nick Clegg needs to improve his ratings from the very poor levels that they plunged to following the formation of the Coalition. But instead he is sinking further. He has 3 years and 9 months at most to see improvements. But given what has happened to his polling in the last year, it may already be too late. The public may already have made their minds up.

antifrank

Italy: post-race analysis

Since Spa:

In a first this season there will be both two DRS zones (which we saw in Montreal and Valencia) but also two detection zones. The thinking is that this will aid overtaking, of course, but also that it will make up for a lesser DRS effect, presumably due to the generally high speed nature of Monza.

Tyre allocations for the weekend are the same as for Spa (soft yellows and medium whites). This is bad news for Ferrari, who suffered greatly when trying to get heat into the white tyres at Spa. They’re also more adversely affected by the cold, for the same reason.

Qualifying summary:

The first practice session was handy as all times were set on white tyres, enabling an approximate comparison. McLaren were fastest, followed by Red Bull, with Ferrari some way back.

Second practice had Vettel, Hamilton and Schumacher at the top, followed by the two Ferraris, Webber, Button and Perez. However, the commentary chaps reckoned that the McLarens were relatively slow on heavy fuel. That could prove handy for Red Bull and Mercedes.

Third practice had Vettel ahead of everyone by a few tenths, and on that basis I tipped him for pole at evens.

To my surprise and delight, Vettel not only got pole, he slaughtered his opposition. Hamilton and Button were 2^nd and 3^rd, but Hamilton was almost half second behind the Weltmeister.

Even more oddly, Webber (who had just one run rather than two) was down by seven-tenths on his team mate, and managed only 5^th, directly behind Alonso and ahead of Massa. The top 10 were rounded out by Petrov, Schumacher, Rosberg and Senna, but it’s worth mentioning that Rosberg did Q3 on the prime tyre (the slower white compound) and Senna did not set a time at all.

Race summary:

I found the race even harder to predict than qualifying. In the end, I opted for a Vettel win tip at 2.3 and a Webber podium tip at 2.75 (although this did later lengthen to 3.25). A gentleman from Putney suggested, pre-P3, backing Schumacher for a top 6 place at 3.05, which I also put a little on.

The start was very exciting. Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton entered turn 1 abreast, and left it in the above order. Meanwhile, Webber and Button continued their habit of starting poorly, and Schumacher continued his of taking off like a rocket. However, the midfield was torn to shreds by a HRT car which decided to go for some off-track rally action and rammed its way through half the midfield runners.

A safety car appeared, a few cars (especially those that had slyly begun the race on medium white tyres) dove into the pits, and the numerous cars, including Rosberg’s and Petrov’s, destroyed by the incident were removed from the circuit.

At the sharp end, Schumacher’s ultra-fast Mercedes had gotten past Hamilton, and was holding him up. This continued for many laps, and the wily old fox was rather robust with his defensive moves at times.

Still before lap 10, Webber (who had fallen back, due to his bad start), tried passing Massa but unfortunately forgot that two objects possessing the same co-ordinates in time and space contravenes the laws of physics. He whacked the Ferrari, lost his front wing and spun Massa around. Shortly thereafter, Webber’s car, angry at his mistake, refused to turn at a corner (possibly due to nearly zero front downforce resulting from no front wing) and he thumped nose-first into a barrier and out of the race.

Vettel, meanwhile, completed a staggeringly good pass on Alonso, going around him in a sweeping, high speed corner. Pass done, he then drove off into the sunset and divided the rest of his time between growing and maintaining a healthy lead and doing the Financial Times crossword.

Schumacher put Hamilton onto the grass slightly (still, better than a concrete wall at 200mph), allowing Button to sneak past his team mate and then immediately past the German. Many laps later Schumacher yielded to Hamilton, perhaps reasoning the pass was only a matter of time and such defensive driving was damaging his tyres.

As predicted the Ferrari was poor on white tyres and this enabled cunning Button to pass him and reach second place. Briefly it appeared as though Alonso might yet retake the place, but by the final lap he was just ahead of Hamilton. Another lap and he would’ve finished in fourth.

Musings:

Schumacher got a very solid fifth, for the second race running, making Mr. Putney’s tip nice and profitable (and better than mine). I got one right and one wrong for the race making it very slightly profitable, and got my solitary qualifying tip correct. After the woes of Spa I’m happy enough with two from three, and a small profit augmented by the wisdom of Mr. Putney.

Webber crashing out was irksome, both as it meant that bet failed and I have no idea if it would have come off. I think it had a reasonable chance, but we’ll never know.

Yet again, both Ferraris and Schumacher had electric starts, Red Bull varied between a big sluggish (Vettel) and nodding off (Webber) and Button was also a little slow. I did consider the First Lap leader bet briefly but decided against it.

There is a silver lining to Webber’s failure to finish (the first time since Korea last year a Red Bull has failed to win points at a race), which is that Alonso now becomes second in the title race, a more profitable place for my Winner Without Vettel market bets (Alonso or Hamilton winning gives more than anyone else). However, still a bit irked that he crashed out, but that’s racing.

So, why did the car that is substantially slower than its rivals in a straight line manage to win at a circuit which is all about top speed?

Because, as I’ve said before, Vettel is clever. He and Webber opted for differing gear ratios at the top end (gears 6 and 7). Vettel went for short ratios, reducing top end speed but, I believe, enabling the car to be quicker through the sweeping corners. In practice and qualifying the McLaren was much faster in sector 1 but was losing about half a second in sector 3 to the Red Bull.

This is also why Hamilton had such difficulty, even with DRS, passing Schumacher. The Mercedes was cheerfully set up to be fast as hell in a straight line, but McLaren had copied the Red Bull path. The problem is, overtaking in a straight line is bloody hard when the bloke in front is about the same speed as you, and passing elsewhere, even if you have speed in hand, is also tough.

Unfortunately, after the epic old European circuits, we’re off to the tedium of Singapore in a fortnight. Hopefully it won’t be like Valencia, presently the only boring race of the year.

Morris Dancer

Belgium: post-race analysis

Since Hungary:

Renault have decided that Quick Nick Heidfeld isn’t quite doing the job they’d hoped he would. So, they’ve replaced him with Bruno Senna, and replaced his salary with the millions in sponsorship the Brazilian nephew brings with him. I hope Senna can do a good job, but it’ll be difficult for him. He’s only ever driven a HRT before, he’s not raced competitively for over half a year, the Renault’s gradually slipped down the running order and Spa is a circuit where top speed really helps (cf 2009 when Force India got pole then 2^nd) and the Renault engine is not the fastest.

Qualifying summary:

Practice was dominated by rain, with very little dry running and lots of intermediate tyre usage. It was hard to predict a pole sitter. I considered Webber the best bet (thought I was tempted by Button) as only Red Bulls have had pole this season, he got pole last year, he was fastest in P2 and P3 and if it was dry for qualifying Red Bull usually does even better.

Qualifying was hugely eventful from start to finish. Schumacher, celebrating 20 years of F1, didn’t even finish his out lap as a rear wheel parted company from his car and ensured he started from a career worst of 24^th. Meanwhile, Paul di Resta failed to escape Q3, and joined a quintet of backmarkers in 18^th. However, Kovalainen did manage to get into Q2 (albeit in just 17^th).

Q2 was almost as exciting for reasons good and bad. With just under 7 minutes left Sutil crashed out and the debris on the track got the session red-flagged, with Alonso in the drop zone. He managed to recover, but Button (then very high up the timesheet) waved past Hamilton (then in the drop zone). However, Button was called into the pits and ended up getting dropped in just 13^th place. Hamilton, meanwhile, secured entry into Q1, as did both Renaults and Perez. Unfortunately, the end of Q2 was marred by Hamilton making a robust but perfectly legitimate pass on Maldonado to get his best time. Maldonado, relegated to a mere 16^th, then swiped Hamilton’s car, causing superficial damage. Disgraceful behaviour (perhaps harking back to memories of a meeting in Monte Carlo) that earnt Maldonado a 5 place grid penalty and Hamilton a reprimand (for some reason).

Q1 saw dry tyres (the faster softs) used for the first time in qualifying. To my delight, Webber was consistently and substantially faster than his rivals (Vettel and Hamilton) for much of the session, only to drop to 3^rd in the latter stages. Happily, the 1.8 lay I’d suggested was accepted, so I ended up green anyway. Senna got a very impressive 7^th (ahead of Petrov in 10^th), Alonso got a substantially unimpressive 8^th (Massa snagged 4^th) and Vettel led Hamilton and then Webber at the sharp end. Rosberg and Alguersuari got 5^th and 6^th, Perez 9^th.

Race summary:

I imagined there would be plenty of cunning tips to offer, given Alonso, Button and Schumacher were heavily out of position in 8^th, 13^th and 24^th respectively. That, sadly, turned out not to be the case. In the end I opted for laying Webber for a podium at 1.81.

The first lap was notable for two main reasons: firstly, Rosberg got the lead from 5^th, and secondly Webber started with all the vigour of a hung-over octogenarian with rheumatoid arthritis, dropping all the way back to 8^th or so.

Senna unfortunately forgot that the first corner involves turning the car, rammed Alguersuari like a killer whale trying to drown a calf, and effectively ended the latter’s race whilst ruining his own.

At this point I was pleased. And then even more confirmation of my seemingly correct tip: Vettel reported severe blistering. I’d utterly forgotten to account for the tyre degradation (what with almost no dry running in 5 hours of practice and qualifying), and the Red Bulls seems to be suffering most (especially compared to the Ferraris and Button).

Down the field Schumacher was passing people left right and centre, and Button, who was down to 19^th at one point, was doing likewise. Incidentally, the other drivers all agreed that the Mercedes was fantastically quick in a straight line (even versus the very fast McLaren). Of course, that might be because Mercedes went for a dry set-up rather than a compromise.

Unfortunately, Kobayashi attempted to break the laws of physics and occupy the same time and space as Hamilton, spinning the Briton and putting him into the barrier. Hamilton left the race, the safety car arrived, Vettel sneaked into the pits and got a free pit stop (and so did many other drivers).

Webber had recovered from his early woes and Vettel too was coping with the blisters. Their only rival at the mid-stage was Alonso, who was ultimately to get passed by Webber (Alonso was on the harder tyre at the end and could not make it work, unlike the Red Bulls and Button, who began on the harder tyre) and then Button. Vettel scored yet another triumph (he was actually 2.9 and longer than Hamilton, then 2.7, just before the race) leading Webber and then Button. Alonso was 4^th, Schumacher managed to pass his team mate to get 5^th, and Rosberg was followed by Sutil, Massa, Petrov and Maldonado.

So, two bets, both wrong. If you hedged you’d be up about 60p. On the other hand, if you didn’t, you’d be down £20. Ironically, even though I laid Webber for the podium at 1.81 I could’ve hedged easily probably at 4-5 or even longer, given his atrocious start.

Musings:

Feel rather disappointed with my betting, particularly in the race when I should’ve recalled tyre degradation and Webber’s China drive (from 18^th or so to 3^rd) and backed Button and Schumacher to get podium and points (I did consider those bets, along with a Rosberg podium and Alonso win at 13 each, but decided they were too risky). Without hedging, this was the worst result since China in April.

The Mercedes was bloody fast in a straight line. Fastest of any car, and Schumacher was very quick throughout as well. The next race, in a fortnight, is Italy, and Monza is, like Spa, a speed circuit. Mercedes and Schumacher might just spring a slight surprise there. Rosberg maintains his habit of going backwards in the race.

I’m convinced Vettel and Red Bull are effectively uncatchable for the Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles. It was strategy rather than raw pace that got him the win, and it’s very hard to see anyone else taking his crown.

Morris Dancer

Mid-season review (racing):

The season so far has been very good. We lost Bahrain (which is about as traumatic and upsetting as a massage with a happy finish) but in the first 11 races we’ve seen only one that was out-and-out boring (Valencia, due to a vile, tedious and woeful track).

By contrast, we’ve had many great races, and an absolute corking classic in Canada (which was also fantastic last year). Excepting the first few races, the challenge for the victory has come from multiple teams, and although Red Bull has dominated qualifying throughout they’ve come under pressure there as well.

Why has the racing been so good (Valencia aside)?

The numerous rules changes are undoubtedly the critical factor. The new DRS, KERS coming back and Pirelli making tyres that degrade more rapidly have all played a role, increasing overtaking and emphasising the importance of strategy. I would axe either DRS or KERS (I think having both is too gimmickity, and would probably take away DRS) but overall the new rules have made the sport even more enjoyable to watch.

The Pirelli tyres have meant that tyre management is highly important. Webber both suffered and benefited from this early on. He needed one more pit stop than Vettel in the early races, costing him points (a problem deepened by reliability issues). However, in China his numerous fresh tyres enable him to charge up the grid and achieve a great 3^rd place.

The weather has also, generally, been conducive to great racing. The epic rain delay in Canada served up a fantastic race and a great British victory, and Hungary also saw the race defined by the teams’ tyre choices (both strategically and in relation to the elements).

In some ways, it’s reminiscent of 2009. Like Button then, Vettel has accrued a monstrous advantage, and the fact that the chasing pack (Alonso, Hamilton, Button and Webber) are numerous helps him further, as they take points off of each other and make catching him even harder.

However, I’d put the Red Bull as the third best car now in race terms. The McLaren and Ferrari are both better on the day. But, for Vettel to lose now he would need either Hamilton or Alonso to average a finish 11 points ahead of him at each of the 8 remaining races. That’s a huge ask. It is not, however, impossible.

McLaren and Ferrari tend, in recent seasons, to start more slowly than Red Bull but develop much more throughout the season, and this has happened again. I’d also say that Hamilton and Alonso are approximately on a par with one another and Vettel, and Button is fantastic in changeable conditions. In 2009, Button’s advantage began to be steadily eroded in the latter half of the season, and I think he only clinched it at the penultimate race in Interlagos.

Will the same happen to Vettel?

I’d say it’s unlikely. The gap is enormous and he’s aided by multiple competitors. The Red Bull (KERS excepted) has been as reliable as a Yorkshireman called Bob. To lose it’d need probably a combination of the following to occur:

Multiple DNFs for Vettel

Consistent wins from Hamilton or Alonso

Vettel finishing 4^th or lower on a regular basis

I’d be more inclined to have a look at laying Red Bull for the Constructors’. I did consider it (it’s 1.04 right now) but I’d need to see McLaren wiping the floor with Red Bull at a few races before tipping it.

Looking further down the field, there’s actually quite a lot of interesting things to say. Sauber have improved and now regularly challenge for points. Kobayashi is still highly entertaining, and I rate Perez highly (he would’ve scored points in his first race but for a tiny technical transgression with the rear wing).

Force India have improved recently as well, as di Resta has great potential for the future. Renault, by contrast have moved backwards, and I’m sure they’ll be thrilled to get Kubica back next year. I just hope they can give him the car he deserves.

Mercedes have never lived up to the post-Brawn potential. This is probably because budget constraints meant Brawn had to axe a lot of staff, and the team hasn’t really recovered. Schumacher has had occasional flashes of brilliance, the most obvious time being the Canadian Grand Prix where he came within a whisker of a podium, but it’s hard to assess him given the car isn’t good enough. I think he has the raw pace and good feel in wet conditions, but lacks the fine touch needed to stay out of trouble. I hope he can snag a podium this year or next.

I still don’t see the point of the new teams. Six cars between them and not a single point. I got no points watching the 2010 season on TV. I know someone has to be at the back, but middle of the road teams like Sauber, Toro Rosso and Williams manage to have at least a chance of points regularly.

The next race weekend begins in 12 days, at Spa. I’ve heard rumours it might end up alternating with a re-introduced French GP, which would be disappointing but far better than losing the track altogether. Spa’s a proper, exciting, race circuit, like Interlagos or Silverstone, not a dreary lump of tedium like Valencia or Bahrain.

I don’t anticipate huge changes in relative pace despite the 4 week break because for most of that time the teams have been commanded to have time off. Still, we’ll find out in a fortnight what’s what.

Morris Dancr

Mid-season review (betting):

This season has, in many ways, been the exact opposite of 2010, my first full season of tipping. Although both started badly, 2010 was worse. Last year I was good at qualifying and pretty rubbish at races, this year, the reverse is true. (After Hungary if you bet on every tip I offered, without hedging, qualifying would yield a net gain of £17.15, with races putting you ahead £113.19). Overall, this is much better than the broadly flat first half of 2010, but for reasons I shall explain later I’m not entirely happy.

Another reverse relates to hedging. For those unaware, hedging means that when you back somebody doing something (say, Vettel getting a podium) you then set up a lay (betting against them doing that something at much shorter odds) on the reverse. The theory is that, because F1 is especially prone to randomness, unpredictability and woe, people will often get close to something but ultimately fail. Unfortunately, and in very stark contrast to last year, hedging has been better at only one race (Monaco). If you bet and did not hedge on every one of my tips (with a £10 stake) you’d be up £130.34 for the season so far, but with hedging this would be just £73.84. That’s a pretty enormous difference and the rather splendid graph below will show how this worked race-by-race.

So, why hasn’t hedging worked in 2011 when it was very good in 2010?

Obviously the answer must be one of the many differences this year. One obvious candidate is the excellent level of reliability, particularly after the first few races. We’ve also, generally, had good weather. When we haven’t (Canada, Britain, Germany) I’ve generally done ok but lost through hedging things that actually happened. In Canada, I backed McLaren for the win, and it was on the final lap Button got the lead, in Silverstone, Alonso was very fast indeed and got the wine.

Essentially, I’ve been more accurate in the race than I thought I would, and in qualifying I’ve either been right or, more often, so hugely wrong the hedge never got taken.

I’m going to try and modify my hedging approach a bit, perhaps suggesting it slightly less often or at shorter odds. I’m a cautious gambler by nature, but this clearly isn’t working well in 2011.

We’ve had 11 races so far, and around half of them have been neither here nor there in terms of winning/losing (with a loss or win of £10 or less). One was awful (China, where I managed to get 4 tips from 4 wrong) and two have been really quite splendid (Spain and Germany). I am glad to be better at races than qualifying, as that’s more profitable, but also a bit disappointed that I had a terrible race in China and around half of them (including the Hungarian Grand Prix) didn’t really yield much of a result.

Favourite race: Canada

The longest F1 race this season and, indeed, in every season of F1 to date. Over 4 hours, with more time spent under a rain-induced red flag than racing. By lap 41 the sole McLaren (my tip being for them to win) was 21^st of 21 remaining drivers. By lap 69 Button was 2^nd. On the final lap Vettel made a mistake and Button won. Bloody exciting race ending with a tiny overall profit but huge relief.

Most profitable race: Germany

Odd race this. I felt unusually confident about every tip, which was fair enough as they all came off, but rather flat afterwards. Not sure why, but having made a puny £3 odd at Hungary I much prefer the flat but profitable sort of result. At this race I thought it clear that Webber a good chance of nabbing pole, but didn’t reckon on Hamilton’s great performance. This switched my thinking from Alonso to the Briton for the win and the drop-off in Red Bull performance ensured Vettel failed to get a podium for the only time in the first half of the season.

Favourite tip/bet: McLaren to win Canada

I’d buggered up qualifying (as usual) with two failed tips, and my single race tip was looking as forlorn as a lonely puppy. In the rain. With three legs. Happily, Button decided the time was ripe for the greatest F1 victory for quite some time, and it came off.

Three articles or one per weekend?

This season, I changed my approach from 3 articles (pre-qualifying, pre-race and post-race) to just the one after the race, with tips offered on the main site. How do people think this working? Would my loyal readership (both of them) prefer me to revert to the 2010 system?

Despite getting hedging wrong and needing to improve qualifying in particular, the start to 2011 has been notably better than 2010. The next race is Spa, with race day on the 28^th. I anticipate this being tricky for the Red Bulls, but we’ll have to wait and see. Unlike some circuits (yes, Valencia and Bahrain, I mean you) it’s a great track and should produce a fantastic race.

Morris Dancer

Hungary: post-race analysis

Since Germany:

Well, this season had been going pretty well, until I found out today that the BBC has not bothered to wait until its F1 deal ends in 2013 before shedding coverage. From 2012 to 2018 the BBC will cover just half the races, with Sky showing all of them. I’m undecided as to whether this is better or worse than no TV coverage at all. I also think it’s the first time that F1 has not been shown on free-to-air TV in the UK. Given BBC Three and BBC Four both appear to be safe, despite BBC One and Two being crammed with repeats, I am significantly unimpressed. For a broadcaster that has guaranteed funding of £3bn plus a year the BBC manages to show bloody few programmes I actually want to watch.

I feel particularly sorry for the BBC F1 team, who have been excellent (indeed, BAFTA-winning) and deserve better than this limp-wristed halfway house.

At this stage, I think (from a betting perspective) I’ll be able to continue offering tips. Nevertheless, I’m pretty livid. The BBC’s managed to infuriate every F1 fan, spend a load of money and fail to secure a real season of F1 for the next 7 years. Takes a special sort of genius to come up with that.

Qualifying summary:

I agonised a bit over my qualifying tip. Considered di Resta and Perez for Q3, but decided the odds were against it, and the lack of a racey lap from Hamilton in P3 made judging it hard. I thought Vettel had the measure of Webber and pole would be between him and Hamilton, and opted for the German at 1.8.

Qualifying was a bit of a surprise. Hamilton looked tremendously fast in the first two sessions and got the fastest lap in the first phase of Q1. I was surprised that Vettel wasn’t faster, and Webber was well off the pace, ending up sixth on the grid.

The Ferraris, especially Alonso, were also less competitive than I imagined, and Massa out-qualified his team mate for the first time this year. The pair line up 4^th and 5^th.

At the sharp end, yet more surprises. Button forgot he’s rubbish at qualifying and blitzed the Ferraris, putting in a fastest lap just 0.046s slower than Hamilton.

Vettel, unlike Hamilton and Alonso, improved with his second run to snatch what had become a seemingly unlikely pole position, which was a great relief (particularly given I’d said I was tempted by Hamilton’s odds of 9.5 earlier in the week).

The Mercedes does not look in good shape. It had lagged a long way off full-fuel pace in practice, due to severe tyre wear, and I suspect both drivers will do poorly. For the race, I can see any of about four drivers winning it, so it’ll be fun trying to tip.

Race summary:

I offered a pair of race tips: No Safety Car at 1.65 (odds increased to 1.78ish later) and laying Vettel for a podium finish at 1.39. I really wanted to bet on the race winner, but I could see any one of four drivers (Hamilton, Alonso, Button and Vettel) getting it. Sadly the long shot didn’t come off, though the odds-on one did, making this a rather pale green race weekend.

Contrary to the weather forecast, there was drizzle and a wet track at the start, and again later in the race.

It started with all cars on intermediates, and the top 3 stayed in formation early on. The Ferraris got bad starts, and both were passed and held up by the two Mercedes for quite some time.

After the early pit stops Vettel exited behind both McLarens, and it was clear the British drivers were the fastest. Webber and Alonso were capable of catching Vettel, but circumstances prevented them.

Halfway through the race Nick Heidfeld’s Renault burst into flames and then literally exploded just outside the pits. Thankfully, the race director judged that an exploding car is no justification for a safety car, so that bet at least came off.

Meanwhile, the cars had split on tyre strategy. Button, Vettel and Webber were on the slower but longer lasting primes (soft yellows) and Hamilton and Alonso were on the faster options (red supersofts) but had to stop again. Given the soggy track, this looked bad for Hamilton and Alonso. Then it started raining again. The McLarens duelled for the lead, and Hamilton got it before diving into the pits, as Webber had done so, for intermediates. However, their action proved premature, the rain dried up and both men had to stop again for the primes.

This gifted Button the lead, and Vettel was unable to make any headway against him. Alonso, having stopped for primes but not wasted time with the intermediates, was in a clear third.

Hamilton had to serve a drive-through penalty and came out just behind Webber. The pair were 4^th and 5^th, and some heavy traffic afforded the Briton an opportunity to pass which he pulled off.

Further down the field, di Resta scored a great 7^th, both Toro Rosses got in the points and Rosberg came 9^th for Mercedes.

On track, it was a reasonably good race, but the result was not what I was hoping for. Any one of the top 5 could’ve been on the podium, and Hamilton was rather unlucky not to finish higher.

Musings:

http://www.rtl.de/formel1/livestream/index does provide free qualifying and race coverage, I think. It’s in German, which isn’t ideal (unless you’re German, obviously) but it’s better than paying through the nose due to the BBC’s epic shafting of British F1 fans.

Bit displeased with the result in two ways. Firstly, the rain was very unlikely (20% of trace amounts according to one forecast) and that had a huge impact on the end result. However, F1 is, as I’ve said many times, especially prone to unpredictable factors, which includes weather.

Worse was my own indecision on who to back for race winner. Initially, I thought Vettel, Button, Hamilton and Alonso all had a decent chance. I was pretty confident that the McLaren would be fastest in the race and considered the 9.8 for Button and 2.2 for McLaren, but decided against it. I shouldn’t be too disappointed, but that was a clear misjudgement on my part.

Vettel’s lead grows again, thanks to this result. He is now 85 ahead of his team mate, with Hamilton 3 points behind Webber, Alonso 1 point behind Hamilton and Button 11 points behind Alonso.

There’s a bit of a break now, and the next race is the fantastic Spa on 28 August. I’ll do a pair of mid-season reviews to fill the gap, one about the season from a betting perspective, and another from a race perspective.

Morris Dancer