Hungary: post-race analysis

Since Germany:

Well, this season had been going pretty well, until I found out today that the BBC has not bothered to wait until its F1 deal ends in 2013 before shedding coverage. From 2012 to 2018 the BBC will cover just half the races, with Sky showing all of them. I’m undecided as to whether this is better or worse than no TV coverage at all. I also think it’s the first time that F1 has not been shown on free-to-air TV in the UK. Given BBC Three and BBC Four both appear to be safe, despite BBC One and Two being crammed with repeats, I am significantly unimpressed. For a broadcaster that has guaranteed funding of £3bn plus a year the BBC manages to show bloody few programmes I actually want to watch.

I feel particularly sorry for the BBC F1 team, who have been excellent (indeed, BAFTA-winning) and deserve better than this limp-wristed halfway house.

At this stage, I think (from a betting perspective) I’ll be able to continue offering tips. Nevertheless, I’m pretty livid. The BBC’s managed to infuriate every F1 fan, spend a load of money and fail to secure a real season of F1 for the next 7 years. Takes a special sort of genius to come up with that.

Qualifying summary:

I agonised a bit over my qualifying tip. Considered di Resta and Perez for Q3, but decided the odds were against it, and the lack of a racey lap from Hamilton in P3 made judging it hard. I thought Vettel had the measure of Webber and pole would be between him and Hamilton, and opted for the German at 1.8.

Qualifying was a bit of a surprise. Hamilton looked tremendously fast in the first two sessions and got the fastest lap in the first phase of Q1. I was surprised that Vettel wasn’t faster, and Webber was well off the pace, ending up sixth on the grid.

The Ferraris, especially Alonso, were also less competitive than I imagined, and Massa out-qualified his team mate for the first time this year. The pair line up 4^th and 5^th.

At the sharp end, yet more surprises. Button forgot he’s rubbish at qualifying and blitzed the Ferraris, putting in a fastest lap just 0.046s slower than Hamilton.

Vettel, unlike Hamilton and Alonso, improved with his second run to snatch what had become a seemingly unlikely pole position, which was a great relief (particularly given I’d said I was tempted by Hamilton’s odds of 9.5 earlier in the week).

The Mercedes does not look in good shape. It had lagged a long way off full-fuel pace in practice, due to severe tyre wear, and I suspect both drivers will do poorly. For the race, I can see any of about four drivers winning it, so it’ll be fun trying to tip.

Race summary:

I offered a pair of race tips: No Safety Car at 1.65 (odds increased to 1.78ish later) and laying Vettel for a podium finish at 1.39. I really wanted to bet on the race winner, but I could see any one of four drivers (Hamilton, Alonso, Button and Vettel) getting it. Sadly the long shot didn’t come off, though the odds-on one did, making this a rather pale green race weekend.

Contrary to the weather forecast, there was drizzle and a wet track at the start, and again later in the race.

It started with all cars on intermediates, and the top 3 stayed in formation early on. The Ferraris got bad starts, and both were passed and held up by the two Mercedes for quite some time.

After the early pit stops Vettel exited behind both McLarens, and it was clear the British drivers were the fastest. Webber and Alonso were capable of catching Vettel, but circumstances prevented them.

Halfway through the race Nick Heidfeld’s Renault burst into flames and then literally exploded just outside the pits. Thankfully, the race director judged that an exploding car is no justification for a safety car, so that bet at least came off.

Meanwhile, the cars had split on tyre strategy. Button, Vettel and Webber were on the slower but longer lasting primes (soft yellows) and Hamilton and Alonso were on the faster options (red supersofts) but had to stop again. Given the soggy track, this looked bad for Hamilton and Alonso. Then it started raining again. The McLarens duelled for the lead, and Hamilton got it before diving into the pits, as Webber had done so, for intermediates. However, their action proved premature, the rain dried up and both men had to stop again for the primes.

This gifted Button the lead, and Vettel was unable to make any headway against him. Alonso, having stopped for primes but not wasted time with the intermediates, was in a clear third.

Hamilton had to serve a drive-through penalty and came out just behind Webber. The pair were 4^th and 5^th, and some heavy traffic afforded the Briton an opportunity to pass which he pulled off.

Further down the field, di Resta scored a great 7^th, both Toro Rosses got in the points and Rosberg came 9^th for Mercedes.

On track, it was a reasonably good race, but the result was not what I was hoping for. Any one of the top 5 could’ve been on the podium, and Hamilton was rather unlucky not to finish higher.

Musings:

http://www.rtl.de/formel1/livestream/index does provide free qualifying and race coverage, I think. It’s in German, which isn’t ideal (unless you’re German, obviously) but it’s better than paying through the nose due to the BBC’s epic shafting of British F1 fans.

Bit displeased with the result in two ways. Firstly, the rain was very unlikely (20% of trace amounts according to one forecast) and that had a huge impact on the end result. However, F1 is, as I’ve said many times, especially prone to unpredictable factors, which includes weather.

Worse was my own indecision on who to back for race winner. Initially, I thought Vettel, Button, Hamilton and Alonso all had a decent chance. I was pretty confident that the McLaren would be fastest in the race and considered the 9.8 for Button and 2.2 for McLaren, but decided against it. I shouldn’t be too disappointed, but that was a clear misjudgement on my part.

Vettel’s lead grows again, thanks to this result. He is now 85 ahead of his team mate, with Hamilton 3 points behind Webber, Alonso 1 point behind Hamilton and Button 11 points behind Alonso.

There’s a bit of a break now, and the next race is the fantastic Spa on 28 August. I’ll do a pair of mid-season reviews to fill the gap, one about the season from a betting perspective, and another from a race perspective.

Morris Dancer

Germany: post-race analysis

Since Britain:

The hot/cold blowing row is over. After some frankly farcical last minute changes last time, the teams and FIA have agreed to go back to the Valencia rules and will stick with them throughout the season. Hot/cold blowing will be banned in 2012.

Interestingly, Sebastian Vettel has warned Red Bull against complacency, citing Ferrari as a possible danger to his title bid. This is interesting because of many reasons. Firstly, it indicates he isn’t on cruise control, or does not want to be seen to be. Secondly, it suggests that Ferrari’s very strong pace in Britain was not due mostly/solely to the rule changes. I’ve said it before, but Vettel’s a great driver because he has the speed of Hamilton and the brains of Schumacher (and a car designed by Adrian Newey doesn’t hurt either).

Mercedes hope to see an improvement in Germany (they had an exhaust update for Silverstone which seemed to work but the British summer meant they didn’t get much dry-running to test and perfect it). Given that, and the competitiveness of the top 3 teams we could see a rather close and interesting race.

Qualifying summary:

I buggered up the timing for my Webber tip (pole, 3.8) which was 5.1 in the morning and 4.9 about three minutes after my tip. Oh well. Recommended a 1.5 hedge as well.

Hamilton was staggeringly good in qualifying. Having (accurately, I thought) despaired of all hope when it came to pole, he comprehensively exceeded expectations by a country mile, seizing second and getting ahead of Vettel. Alonso, by contrast, was surprisingly slow after having looked very racey in practice (it may be that the cold does not suit the Ferrari). Button was well off the pace, over a second behind his team mate.

Happily, Webber did get pole, making it an unusually green qualifying session, with a grid line up I certainly didn’t expect.

Racing summary:

I offered two bets for the race. Hamilton to win at 3.95 (hedged at 1.5) and laying Vettel for a podium at 1.55 (hedged at 4). I did consider a No Safety Car bet, but given the uncertain weather and limited recent history of the circuit (2 races, 1 with a safety car, 1 without) I decided against it.

The race was fascinating, with tight racing, overtakes, mistakes and excitement throughout the field and the race. What really made it so good was the unseasonable cold, but that’s a matter for the musings along with the undercut issue.

Off the line Webber started slightly poorly, but Hamilton and the Ferraris had flying starts. Hamilton got into the lead, followed by Webber, and Alonso soon got past Vettel (who had made one of numerous mistakes). Further down the grid, Schumacher had a stereotypically good start and Button went backwards.

The top 3 were in a league of their own today, miles ahead of everybody else. It was nip and tuck throughout, and the undercut worked once for Webber but then failed for him. Hamilton was fantastically aggressive and skilful, fending off Webber after one pit stop and then brilliantly passing Alonso in a near identical scenario. McLaren have made some strategic howlers (the most notable perhaps being the pit stop woe at Monaco) this season but were spot on bringing Hamilton in early for the final, late, mandatory switch to the significantly slower medium tyres. Red Bull’s failure to copy promptly destroyed any chance of Webber advancing from his then third place, as the medium tyres were, surprisingly, faster than worn soft tyres.

McLaren and Ferrari both have big reasons to feel fantastic. The cold really doesn’t suit the prancing horse, and the McLaren looked thoroughly off the pace throughout practice.

So, how did their team mates fare? Massa had a great race, in 4^th, holding off Vettel for lap after lap (and whose failure to pass him will do nothing to dispel the view that he’s not so hot in traffic). Unfortunately for the Brazilian his pit crew lost a duel with the Red Bull crew and on the final lap he was passed in the pits and ended up 5^th.

Button had an atrocious start, but was recovering well (after failing to pass Petrov for ages in the early stages). Eventually he passed Rosberg and I think he could’ve caught and perhaps challenged Vettel and Massa but a hydraulics failure meant he had to pit and retire on safety grounds. This is his second consecutive failure to finish, after the problem with his nuts (ahem, wheel nuts) in Blighty.

Vettel never featured at the sharp end and, until the very end, lacked the pace of the frontrunners by quite a margin. He was dogged but ineffective in his efforts to pass Massa (for a time he had brake problems but not throughout the race), but his pit crew delivered him the pass. When your worst weekend gives you a 4^th place and the height of your problems is your lead being reduced to 3 race wins + 2 points it’s not so awful.

Further down the field, Sutil scored a brilliant 6^th for Force India by pitting fewer times than other teams, followed by Rosberg and Schumacher. Kobayashi recovered well from a lowly start (17^th) to get 9^th and Petrov nabbed the final point.

The race was the most exciting dry race in recent memory, with three highly competitive chaps from different teams fighting throughout for the victory. The winning bets were nice too.

Musings:

Cold weather gave us some useful information about the cars. The Ferrari dislikes the cold but was still very competitive. The McLaren loves the cold, and the Red Bull is somewhere in between.

It alters the way the tyres work. They’re slower to come up to temperature which means they degrade more slowly, but it also means that the first few laps, even on the faster softs, are slower. This means the undercut doesn’t really work. (NB the undercut refers to pitting before a close competitor, so that the faster new tyre means you gain relative time, putting you ahead of them when they pit shortly thereafter).

I’d say that Alonso remains the largest threat to Vettel, but I’d be quite surprised if the Weltmeister didn’t retain his crown.

Yet again, non-hedging was better than hedging (frustrating to lose 1.1 of a stake through really bad timing on the Webber tip). There’s one more race, next week in Hungary, before a 4 week gap. I’ll probably write two reviews, one about racing, the other about betting, to fill the gap.

Morris Dancer

Britain: post-race analysis

Since Europe/Valencia:

So, the FIA cunningly elected to ban hot/cold blowing. I shall briefly explain the basics of this, which I barely understand myself. It’s technical, but important (like working out how to undo a bra with one hand).

Cold blowing involves passing air through the exhaust even when the throttle is not being pressed. This air is then channelled in such a way to increase rear downforce, which increases grip, decreases tyre degradation and enhances lap times. Hot blowing is much the same except that it involves the burning of fuel (whilst off-throttle) and is more effective.

Both were meant to be banned. Now it’s turned out the ban was just a heavy restriction, and that has been thoroughly changed for each engine. The problem is that Mercedes claimed they need a 10% overrun (hot blowing, I think) for reliability. The FIA agreed. Renault, who supply Red Bull, claimed they need some cold blowing for the same reason, and the FIA said they could have 50% (interesting, given they only used 45% before now). Both sides are unhappy, and McLaren reckon Red Bull, already well in the lead, may have a further advantage.

It’s a right dog’s dinner. There’s no way of knowing who gets the advantage or if it’s more or less equal.

Update: very shortly before qualifying Red Bull were told Renault engines can only have 10% cold blowing. Remains to be seen what the future regulations will be.

Qualifying summary:

Backed Alonso for pole at 6.6. Unfortunately it didn’t work out.

Qualifying was heavily disrupted by occasional bursts of light rain that were just enough to make setting faster times on slicks impossible, but not wet enough to make the intermediates worthwhile.

First glance of the impact of the engine rule changes is that, for all their bellyaching, Red Bull remains top dog, but only just. Ferrari are in a very strong second. Although Button snagged fifth he was a huge 0.7s off Massa, and barely ahead of di Resta, who put in an excellent effort. Hamilton got a rather unimpressive tenth.

Race summary:

Put forward a single tip for Alonso at 4.5 (with Ladbrokes rather than Betfair, as the odds were longer and there’s no commission), advocating a lay at 1.5 on the betting exchange. Happily, this one came off, and so the race and weekend overall was green. Again, better without hedging (I’ll address that in my mid-season review).

The race was a little bit bizarre at the start, because a shower had passed over about half the track. The start was bone dry, but half of it was sopping wet, so the drivers universally decided to start on intermediates. Vettel got a cracking start, passing Webber, and Alonso just held station.

There was a little passing at the sharp end early on, with Hamilton and Schumacher making up many places quite quickly, though generally the first phase of the race was notable for the gaps between the cars. There was soon a 4s or so gap from Vettel to Webber and a similar gap to Alonso. Schumacher continued his penchant for mechanical rhinoplasties, and was the first fellow on slicks when he came in for a new nose.

As Schumacher banged in fast laps the other drivers ditched their intermediates for softs (being wet initially they did not have to use hard tyres during the race) and the race began in earnest. Red Bull remained out in front, and there was a nice fight between Alonso and Hamilton, with the Briton passing the Spaniard but not really pulling away.

Unfortunately, Schumacher then got a stop and go penalty, with a 10 second wait (the Silverstone pits are very short, hence the harshness of the penalty). Despite this, he had a pretty good race and finished 9^th, having started 13^th and suffered that penalty. I rate his performance more highly than Rosberg’s 6^th (17s ahead).

Vettel did suffer a slightly rubbish pit stop, and was stuck behind the (at-this-stage) significantly slower Hamilton, whilst Alonso, staying out longer on his tyres, scampered off into the distance. It’s no small irony that Hamilton really helped Alonso get away as Vettel was unable to pass the Briton.

El Cheerio was unstoppable today, pulling out a very healthy lead which Vettel, even in clear air at the end of the race, was unable to reduce. Hamilton lacked fuel at the end and had to go into fuel-saving mode (so the engine had less power). This meant he had no chance to stop the faster Webber from taking 3^rd, and enjoyed a very robust tussle with Massa for 4^th, which he just managed to retain.

Webber really closed up fast on Vettel, and the German barely kept ahead of the Aussie despite the Red Bull boss Christian Horner deciding to issue a team order (which they tend not to do) on the last lap or so to hold station. Webber ignored the request/order but didn’t manage to pass Vettel, incurring a double psychological blow.

McLaren recovered enormously in the race compared to their woeful qualifying. Button could have scored good points, but he was released from a pit stop before one of his wheel nuts had been put on, forcing him to retire in a rather shambolic way.

It was also a good race for Perez, who again scored points and notched up a good 7^th. Di Resta started in a brilliant 6^th but only finished 15^th.

Musings:

It’s hard to be sure whether the plethora of very good shiny new upgrades Ferrari brought to Silverstone or the engine changes helped the most, but this was a great leap forward for the prancing horse. In race trim the McLarens and Red Bulls were very similar, and I’d say Ferrari was a touch better. I don’t know what will happen regarding the regulations, but if they stay as they were for this race Alonso may stand a chance.

Silverstone is a particularly tasty track for Red Bull. It’s possible their relative loss of performance is more than indicated by the result, and they may be (on average) the third team going by race pace. We’ll find out as the season continues.

The German Grand Prix is in a fortnight, followed by the Hungarian Grand Prix just a week later. After that there’s a four week gap, during which I’ll post the mid-season review.

Morris Dancer

Europe: post-race analysis

Since Canada:

Ugh. There are increasing reports that the BBC, which receives more guaranteed funding than NASA, has chosen not to spend on F1 despite it being hugely popular and the coverage being excellent. This means it will probably either end up on ITV (hopefully they won’t run bloody adverts during live racing again) or Sky, which I don’t have. Marvellous. And by ‘Marvellous’ I of course mean ‘Whoever made that decision deserves to be fired from some sort of giant artillery gun into the heart of the sun’.

The contract ends in 2014, but rumour has it some penny-pinching arsehead is intent upon breaking the contract early.

In other news, there’s no throttle map alteration between qualifying and race, so this should reduce Red Bull’s qualifying advantage. However, it’s so vast I’d be unsurprised if Vettel got pole.

Qualifying summary:

No tips, as I only had a few minutes and it looked like Vettel would get pole at short odds.

I missed this live and saw snippets online. Sadly no change at the front, and whilst it’s nice to see the Ferraris seemingly more competitive we’ll have to see if this is borne out during the race.

Race summary:

Betting-wise, I only offered one tip, and Button never threatened to get a podium so it wasn’t even hedgable, alas.

From a racing perspective Valencia/Europe was always going to suffer by comparison with the epic Canadian Grand Prix, but, even given that, I think it’s fair to say Europe was the most tedious race of the season.

Every single car finished, which is great if you get turned on by reliability, but if you aren’t a Volvo salesman it does indicate the tedium of the race. Most of my underlying assumptions regarding Button were wrong. Webber did suffer slightly from tyre degradation, but not so much it cost him a podium spot. Massa did have decent pace and neither Alonso nor Hamilton crashed out or had a similar issue. I was right about Vettel being over the hills and far away. He won with depressing ease, to be honest.

More importantly, McLaren lacked race pace. They were clearly inferior to Ferrari but superior to Mercedes, and I’ll go into more detail about that in the musings below.

Schumacher had another bad time in Valencia, mostly because his front wing was ruined by a Renault, meaning he had to stop again, and he then ran out of option tyres.

Alguersuari got a great eighth for Toro Rosso and Perez almost managed to make a one-stopper work again, but in the end had to settle for 11^th.

I’d imagined the processional boredom of Valencia would’ve been blown away by the delights of KERS, DRS and the Pirelli tyres. Instead, it was just a bit dull. Vettel was never threatened, most of the cars had a substantial gap both ahead and behind them, and there wasn’t even an exciting crash to liven things up. The good news is that Silverstone’s a proper circuit, and we’re there in a fortnight.

Musings:

Why were McLaren so rubbish in the race? Well, Button did get stuck behind Rosberg for a bit, which hampered him early on, but throughout both cars were slower than Ferrari. Button also had a KERS failure, but I don’t think that made a difference to his finishing position.

There are a few potential explanations. I do not believe the circuit is especially bad for them, as they got two podium places last year. It is possible the loss of hot/cold blowing changes from qualifying to race actually hit them hardest, but a perhaps the more probable explanation is that it was hot and that this disproportionately affected the McLaren.

Next race will see the hot/cold blowing banned entirely. Silverstone is a pretty McLaren-friendly circuit, so they absolutely must aspire to beat Red Bull in Blighty.

Interestingly, every single one of the five tips I considered (Ferrari win at 9.2, 18 or fewer drivers at 2.96, Safety Car at evens, Massa to finish outside the top 6 at 2 and the Button tip) was wrong. That doesn’t speak well of my betting eye this weekend, but at least I only bet and tipped one of them.

Button and Webber are tied on 109 points, a full 77 behind present and future World Champion Sebastian Vettel. I really can’t see him losing from here.

All good things come to an end, but hopefully I’ll be able to offer some better tips for the race in Silverstone, and I’m pretty sure the race will be a damned sight better than a Spanish procession.

Morris Dancer

Canada: post-race analysis

Since Monaco:

Whilst Hamilton’s outburst was still stupid, evidence has emerged suggesting he was perhaps harshly treated regarding the Maldonado penalty (although it didn’t actually cost him anything). More info here:

http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/interesting-analyses/

More importantly, Bahrain has returned from the racing dead and will now take over India’s slot in October, with India’s inaugural race being shifted to December as the final race of the season. I think this is wrong on numerous levels. It appears to give an endorsement to the Bahrain Government, it over-stretches an already full season and it means that the off-season is far too short. [Including the provisional Turkish GP, 2012 has a 21 race calendar, which exceeds the informal desire of the teams to have a maximum of 20].

Update: pissups and breweries spring to mind. The FIA suddenly remember they’ve ignored their own rule that all teams must agree to any calendar change (and none of them wanted to go to Bahrain) and it’s not terribly clever for publicity to visit a country in such circumstances. I feel most sorry for the Indian chaps, who have been dicked about by FIA incompetence, and those who may have cancelled airline tickets to India only for the race to return to its initial calendar slot.

Perez did P1 but declared himself not quite up to racing, so his seat (for Canada) is taken by de la Rosa. Hopefully that’s just a one-off, as Perez has generally been quite impressive.

Qualifying summary:

Rubbishly, I got both tips wrong. Vettel, yet again, got pole. I was pleased to see the Ferraris putting in competitive times, and 2^nd and 3^rd puts them in a great position for the race, but was utterly baffled by the lack of pace from Mercedes.

The much hyped McLarens did poorly, getting only 5^th and 7^th. Apparently, this is because they ran more front wing (a wet setup) which reduced their straight line speed. Effectively, they compromised qualifying pace for an optimal (if it rains) race setup.

Less explicable is the poor pace from the Silver Arrows. It was overcast and cooler, but they went from very competitive in practice to also-rans in Q3. Di Resta got 11^th, just missing out on the final session.

Race summary:

Canada last year was probably the most baffling, complicated and exciting race. This year, it was extraordinary in even more ways.

First off, betting. Last year I offered 4 tips and managed to get all wrong. I did equally ‘well’ this year in qualifying, with 2 tips wrong, but happily my McLaren tip for the win (at 5.9, with a hedge at evens) came off, in dramatic fashion. For those interested, over the course of the season so far not hedging is rather more profitable.

Bad weather had been forecast and duly arrived. Personally I think the safety car start was unnecessary, that it stayed out too long both initially and following the red flag restart.

The first tranche of racing laps were remarkable mostly for Hamilton getting involved in incidents. The Maldonado incident in Monaco showed the wisdom of reserving judgement (it seemed at the time to be Hamilton being reckless but actually was probably not the case when screenshots were seen afterwards). He tapped and spun Webber and then hit Button later. Button was ok, but Hamilton’s rear suspension was broken and he became the first retirement.

More rain came, and we had a second consecutive red flagged race. Hours, literally, of waiting ensued. Button was well down the field at this stage (I forget how far back). He got a drive-through penalty for excessive speed whilst following the safety car, and at one point was 21^st on the grid.

Because some drivers hadn’t bothered with intermediates, the top few looked unusual. Naturally, Vettel was there, serene in 1^st. Kobayashi was second, followed by Massa then the two Renaults. Webber and Alonso had opted for intermediates just before the heavy rain and were well down the field, albeit ahead of Button.

The race restarted under the safety car, which stayed out so bloody long numerous drivers almost immediately dove into the pits for intermediates. It wasn’t long after that that the drivers switched to the supersoft dry tyres, and then magic happened on the track.

Vettel was still leading, but Schumacher, who had caught and passed both Massa and Kobayashi was closing him down. A few laps later Webber was chasing down Schumacher, but then was Button, flying faster than anyone else had in the race. Sadly, yet another safety car appeared and the first three became close (there was a Virgin backmarker between Button and Webber). At this stage there were roughly 10 laps left.

The safety car departed, and Button cleared first the Virgin, then Schumacher and Webber. Webber managed to pass Schumacher for the final podium spot (bit of a shame) and on the penultimate lap Button was close enough to Vettel to deploy the DRS. The gap was just under a second going into lap 70 of 70. But then, the Weltmeister made an extremely rare mistake, straying onto the wet part of the track, and Button passed him, halfway through the last lap, to achieve the most unlikely and sensational of wins.

The race (which lasted about 4 hours and 5 minutes) was the longest in F1 history, with more time spent waiting for the restart than actually racing, I believe. Button had 6 pit stops (including the drive-through) to Vettel’s 3 and rose from 21^st to 1^st.

Hopefully I haven’t missed too much of importance. Bizarre to watch a 4 hour Grand Prix then write it up past 11pm.

Musings:

The mid-season review will actually be after race 11 (Hungary), as that’s just a week after Germany and then there’s a 4 week gap to Spa.

Button’s under investigation for a collision with Alonso which saw the Spaniard retire from the race. I think it (like most collisions today) was a racing incident and hope nothing comes of it.

The soft tyres made no appearance in the race, but they and the supersoft held up surprisingly well in Canada, given the harder Bridgestones degraded rapidly last year.

The next race is in Valencia in a fortnight’s time.

Morris Dancer

Monaco: post-race analysis

Qualifying summary:

After the crash in P3 essentially prevented representative qualifying simulation I decided against betting on qualifying. My instinct [stated in the comments of the Spanish race analysis] was that Hamilton was fastest but there was no evidence and with Alonso looking racey and Vettel faster than I anticipated I decided to just sit it out.

Neither HRT set a time in Q1 and it’s unclear whether they’ll be allowed to race. The Renaults disappointed in 11^th and 16^th, Heidfeld once again punching below his weight.

Unfortunately Perez had a substantial crash in Q3, which I imagine will rule him out of the race, though I don’t know for certain, and also came late on and prevented Hamilton, who had delayed his single planned run and then been slowed by Massa on his first flying lap, from setting a quick time. There was just 2 minutes and 26 seconds on the clock when the session was red flagged. The nine drivers all got out but there was very little change in the order, Vettel (perhaps fortuitously) got pole with Button second and Webber third, and Hamilton achieved only seventh. Schumacher got a tasty fifth.

Race summary:

Being green or red on the Button to win at 7.4 tip depends whether you laid at evens, as advocated. If so, you’re up, if not, you’re down. Disappointing that it didn’t properly come off, but that’s why I hedge.

Button’s failure to win was not due to lack of pace but the frankly inexplicable strategy from McLaren. They cunningly went to the super-soft (faster but less durable) tyre first, unlike their rivals Ferrari and Red Bull. However, they then went onto another set of super-softs, necessitating a third stop, in order to have run both compounds during the race. Button then dropped from second to third.

Alonso had to stop again, and was in second, Vettel was pushing the limits with a single stop. Analysts suggested that Vettel’s tyres would dramatically degrade around the late 60s, enabling Alonso and Button to pass him.

But then the safety car emerged following a crash and the race was red-flagged. It was restarted under the safety car but, crucially, every car could put on fresh tyres, giving Vettel a get out of jail free card and enabling him to win at Monaco for the first time. For all his flawless driving, Button actually went backwards, from 2^nd to 3^rd.

Sadly, this not only meant the tip had very little chance of coming off, it also robbed race fans of a potentially epic finish as a car with extremely old tyres was chased by a car with very old tyres which was chased by a car with fresh(ish) tyres.

Latterly, Webber recovered from a bad start and an abysmal pit stop (Hamilton, who had a demolition derby of a race, and Vettel were similarly afflicted) to nab 4^th at the end, and Kobayashi got a fantastic 5^th for Sauber. Maldonado was very unlucky not to get 6^th after Hamilton clumsily crashed into him in the final few laps.

Monaco saw a good number of overtakes. It wasn’t too easy, but it was possible. Red Bull and Ferrari made an initial strategic mistake but McLaren’s idiocy gifted them the best spots on the podium.

Musings:

Vettel should not have won here. Button had the pace but a combination of ill fortune with the safety car and a bad strategic call from the team gave the Weltmeister a slice of luck he really did not need.

Once again, fewer stops actually proved more beneficial. But for the late safety car, Vettel may have lost a place or two. The DRS and tyre degradation have their overtaking impact severely diluted on circuits like Barcelona and Monaco.

Yet again, Vettel’s supposed rivals have taken points from one another rather than from him, allowing him to extend his already sizeable championship lead. However, the McLaren was the fastest car in race trim, as it was in Spain.

We’re off to Canada in a fortnight. Montreal was amongst the most exciting races last season, as differing strategies and huge tyre degradation led to a fluid, complex battle for victory. This season, it’ll have two DRS zones.

Morris Dancer

Spain: post-race analysis

Qualifying summary:

First off, nice to be green by taking the risk and backing Webber at 3.7. I was quite pleased Vettel very narrowly beat him in P3, as I’d decided against backing the Aussie earlier and his odds were a bit shorter before that.

A bit of a weird, and very complicated, qualifying session. In Q1, Heidfeld failed to set a time as his car wasn’t repaired after it burst into flames during P3, so he starts last. Barrichello’s Williams suffered some sort of failure and he also exited at this stage, in 18^th.

The Force Indias are 16^th and 17^th, but did not waste a set of softs in Q2, putting them in a stronger position for the race. This is unlike Ferrari, both of whom got to Q3 but lack any fresh softs for the race.

At the sharp end, Webber beat Vettel by two-tenths, although the Wunderkind lacked KERS. Both were miles ahead of third-placed Hamilton, who leads a very closely matched trio of himself, Alonso (El Cheerio, judging by his reaction to 4^th) and Button.

Race summary:

This was a fantastic race. Not only did it have everything in a racing sense, it also saw both my tips end up green. My 4.2 podium tip on Button was based on an assumption he would pass Alonso off the line (be fair, nobody in the entire world saw his start coming) and then manage his tyres better than Hamilton. Both turned out to be wrong, but he got a podium anyway. The No Safety Car Tip at 1.68 or so was just based on checking recent races, combined with the sunny weather forecast and high level of reliability in F1 this year. [NB for both qualifying and the race the return was better if you didn’t hedge].

Spain has a very long starting straight, and the clean side (odd, as usual) is a healthy advantage. I assumed both McLarens would make one pass or more each and perhaps challenge the Red Bulls based on tyre degradation.

Instead, Fernando Alonso did his best Speedy Gonzales impersonation and, from 4^th and the dirty side of the track, passed everyone. Unlike at some other circuits, most notably Turkey, the DRS did not make overtaking a piece of cake. This held up Vettel, Webber (who had slipped back) and Hamilton, which later proved handy for Button.

Button had the worst start possible (well, apart from crashing, obviously), falling from 5^th to 10^th. At this point, I strongly suspected my tip was bloody stupid. However, in stark contrast to Turkey, the three stop strategy was better than the four stop. This matters because, firstly, it meant the tip came off, but also because it proved that strategy is not just a case of cramming in as many stops as possible. Webber is harsher on tyres than most drivers, so circuits that have short pit stops are better for him, because there’s less punishment for more stops. Likewise, Button, a smooth driver, can manage them a little better. However, no driver can work magic and there’s a pretty narrow window to work in, drivers can’t just keep going for ages because the tyres will simply fall to pieces.

At the sharp end, we had a fantastic duel for the last part of the race between Vettel and Hamilton. Vettel sometimes had KERS, sometimes didn’t, and just about managed to keep Hamilton behind him. I think that the McLaren had better pace, but Spain’s a hard place to overtake and the DRS didn’t give a big help.

Vettel did fantastically well, and very much deserves his win. Interestingly, Heidfeld progressed from 24^th to 8^th and his team mate Petrov went from 6^th to 11^th.

Musings:

A thrilling race weekend, which reaffirmed what became clear quite early on this season: tyres and strategy are the dominant factor. Grid slots are nice, but it’s better to be 10^th with fresh tyres than 6^th without, especially at a track where the hard tyre is simply too slow to be worth using. If a team wastes a set of softs in qualifying, as Ferrari did, it doesn’t matter even if you get right to the front: you’re toast.

Red Bull maintain supreme dominance of qualifying. However, this is not really reflective of true race pace, where McLaren seem to have substantially closed the gap.

The next race is Monaco, which will have (I imagine) softs and super softs. Here, overtaking on track is ultra-hard, and tyre management will be even more important than usual. Last year Webber led Kubica in qualifying (I backed Kubica at about 7/1 for pole and he just missed out), so it’ll be interesting to see what Webber’s odds are. I also think Button could have another nice result.

Just one week to go until Monaco, and a fortnight later we have the fantastic race in Montreal.

Morris Dancer