Telegraph online
The above story is running in the Telegraph this morning and states that the paper has learned "has learnt that the poll swing to the Conservatives in the main marginal seats is currently about 14 percent - twice the national average recorded by the Conservatives..The seats have been aggressively targeted by a team headed by Lord Ashcroft. Party strategists now believe that Labour has left it too late to mount an effective campaign in these areas."
I have problem with reports of this kind because neither the pollster nor the publisher are ever going to be accountable for the details. We don't know which firm did it and unless this detailed data is made public we cannot make any assessment about its veracity.
The report itself does not add much confidence. To talk about a "swing of 14%" brings us to the verge of the fantastic. The way you calculate these things is to take the difference between Labour 2005 performance at the 2005 general election and the Conservative one. Add the two together and divide by two.
So to get to a 14% swing in a national voting intention survey you would need a CON total of 47% and a Labour one of 22%.That indeed might have happened but unless we can see firm data we cannot jump to conclusions.
Parties are carrying out private polls all the time - why is it only this one that is being leaked?
So come on Tory HQ - be open here and release the data. Otherwise the default assumption is that this is spin.
Mike Smithson
30 comments:
Aye, whilst I'd like it to be true and valid and strongly believe the Tories are way ahead in the marginals, that's just an an enormous figure.
However, the principle still tallies with your earlier belief, which I also agreed with, that Labour's recovery from its 25% floor was in the heartlands and thus not of much use.
On Smeargate: as well as Cameron and Osborne, several other Tory MPs are attacked in McBride's proposed 'initial batch' of stories.
I can believe that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in the marginals, not so much down to Ashcroft money (most of which has been wasted on seats that would have fallen anyway), but because the nature of the seats contain more of the "aspirational poor" who did well under Blair but are really hurting in the credit crunch. 47:22? Just about credible...
How do these figures compare with last year's UKPolling report Poll?
a 14% lead in marginals would be pretty impressive. Did wonder when I read the story if it was a deliberate leak from the Tories or a leak against them.
Des it help the marginal campaign for this to be known or Mr Straw in his efforts to change the law on local expenditure between elections?
If swing is much greater in the marginals then a 14% swing isn't totally far-fetched.
alex
Test.
I'm sceptical, naturally, but there's a technical reason to be suspicious of leaked private polls even if they're true. The leaker will be getting polls regularly, and the one he chooses to leak will be the one that's most helpful to whatever he's trying to achieve (presumably a sense of momentum and inevitability in this case). I suspect that this one is based on the most extreme outlier in the most helpful subsample of marginals.
The PoliticsHome poll showed the Tories doing slightly less well than nationally in the marginals. It'd be helpful to have another one to get an independent impression of whether that was still true.
If this poll is valid and accurate then the first vital point of issue is whether we are talking about a swing or a lead? The article states that it is a swing. This needs confirming.
If it's a swing and the poll is valid and accurate then that is a massive position. If it's a lead then it's a good poll for the Tories but only marginally better than other recent polls.
stjohn.
Whilst neither agreeing nor disagreeing with the thrust of Mike's post,I would just say that The Telegraph has 'shopped' my eventual betting strategy.
It has been my repeated mantra that the Tories will do markedly better in Seat terms than their final poll figures would suggest.This applies most strongly when that poll figure is low (40%-).
Great to see this thread running on my new second favourite forum.
URW.
My default assumption is indeed that this is spin, but like URW, my betting has been predicated on the basis that the Tories will do disproportionately well in the marginals. Labour are playing tennis with the sun in their eyes.
antifrank
O/T. Mike. Since you added the edit facility I swapped to operamini browser to post comments to PB.com1 via my blackberry. Most of the time my comments don't get transmitted. They don't connect. I managed to send two comments to PB.com1 this morning but now again can't connect.
Today is the first time I have posted here and - no problem. Has Mike or anyone got any idea why I am having this problem. Could it be to do with the "edit function" software?
Sorry for the lenghty post O/T but it is frustrating and could also be a problem for others?
stjohn
Nick Palmer. Yesterday on the main thread you posted that yoa agreed with James Burdett's analysis - which by the way I thought was excellent - about the likely timing of the next GE. You said that you thought May 2010 was a value bet.
This option is 8/11 with Ladbrokes. So a 58% chance. What odds would you guage this option? 1/3, 75% chance? 1/4, 80% chance? Don't worry if you get it wrong. Caveat emptor etc.
If anyone enquires after me next door can you tell them that I am here.
I thought this article read like a Labour plant.
It pushes the Labour lines of 'Ashcroft money', 'Tories hiding behind Cameron', and then raises some very high expectations for the locals.
My guess is that this is mis-reporting, and they mean a 14% lead. That is on the high side, but plausible. Given that these are presumably all Labour-held seats, it would give an impressive Tory majority.
Just tried to post this next door but again unsuccessful for the reasons given above.
Until the details of these alleged emails are actually known then I think it's still all froth.
Don describes the emails as "disgusting" and ScottP as "genuinely shocking". Are they referring to the content, the process or both?
I would call false allegations reprehensible. Mental illness and sexual health problems are very common and usually neither "disgusting" nor "genuinely shocking".
I fear I am now destined to serve out my time here languishing in exile. The Sage of PB.com2. The King across the water. A voice crying in the wilderness. A latterday Old Mother Shipton.
Save the stjohn1.
I missed out, "a butterfly trapped in a divingbell."
That makes a lot of sense,Richard Nabavi.So when in 2005 it was LAB 36% CON 36% in a (very) marginal,now the f/cast is for 43-29.
stjohn.Are you related to the butterfly that caused the global downturn that allegedly started in America ?
[JSFL] Morning All,
Fair comment by Mike but given the dreadful spin that has been used by Labour around the polls, I have little sympathy that in political terms stories likes this appear.
I do agree that without the detail this is no more than speculation.
I do note that they refer directly to our hapless Home Secretary (she's gone) so perhaps the 14% swing is a highlight rather than a general factor. After her dreadful performance and the outrageous revelations surrounding her could there be a 14% swing in Redditch?
Now that I could believe.....
StJohn,
Posted your last on Pb.com 1 - your exile has been noted.
Nationally a 14% swing is fantastic, in the sense of being fantasy, but my understanding was that Labour over-performed in the marginals last time. If they underperform in the marginals next time, then there could easily be a 14% swing in the marginals with a national vote of ~44:30
Share all the caution about leaked private polling being taken with a mine of salt, BUT
having seen what Ashcroft money & Coleshill printing can do in a constituency (er, Crewe & Nantwich) 14% in key marginals doesn't seem impossible.
Gulp!
Pb down so...
506 - I think it was just a completely incompetent damage limitation campaign. Probably McBride wasn't completely honest when he was first asked about the story, so they didn't think it was that bad. Then they made the disastrous mistake with the Telegraph article which has basically resulted in the story happening for a whole extra day.
It defies belief that they have been so incompetent that they have ended up losing McBride before the Sundays have even gone to print!
alex
Latest spin line:
McBride thought this should go in the bin - evil Guido has decided they should be published.
alex
Just how many emails did he get and is there one where he asked him to desist?
Draper is still bleating away
He really should keep quiet - he is making it a lot worse for himself and those around him.
His wife must be very forgiving. I would have dumped him years ago!
Dr Who now... a brief rest from the political shenanigans of the day...
Another Pb thread gone missing, this time on this site. Is PB.com under attack?
alex
Virus attacks dissident blogsphere?
Most of it would be down.
Withdrawal symptoms are setting in...
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