Double or Quits – Brown bets the farm on St George’s Day

Today was the day in which I was convinced that the budget would be held paving the way for an immediate dissolution of Parliament tomorrow and the commencement of the shortest-possible 17-working-day campaign to Thursday April 8th, when Brown reasoned many Tory voters in marginal seats would be on holiday during Easter Week. Sorry. I got it wrong.



During the Norwich North by-election campaign I got to bump into quite a few leading personalities from the various parties but it was a chance conversation with a senior Tory that suggested that Labour's election tactic would be to hold a budget and then immediately call the election without the inconvenience of a Finance Act debate in Parliament, when the budget figures would unravel.

So, back on 1st August when the Norwich dust had settled I started to look at the dates. My mistake was to assume that an election date would be chosen that allowed a budget to take place before the election yet allowing a Finance Act debate to take place afterwards in April having allowed time for the delays for the swearing-in of new MPs. I figured the whole job would be knocked-off by the first week in May.

I concluded that, particularly with the coincidence of Easter, the budget would be delivered on March 10th, one of the earliest practical dates. As it happens of course, the budget date has been announced on March 10th one of the latest practicable dates for delivery on March 24th. So what went wrong?

For ages, it looked like my insight was correct. The PBR was set for 9th December and a budget cannot be held within 3 months of that. So it looked like a 10th March budget was ‘on’. And I’m sure that was part of the plan in Whitehall. A March 10th Budget gave ‘options’. And that’s what politics is all about.

And then in February when it became clear that the first quarter’s economic figures would be severely knocked by the loss of 2 weeks output to the snow and ice and the 1st quarter’s stats being released on St George’s Day, it seemed that hanging-on for May 6th was very risky.

So, when the polls appeared to narrow and the sense of momentum seemed to be swinging towards Labour, on Valentines Day I updated my August analysis in 'Two Stags Lock Horns, Budget or Bust'.

In that article, I made a passing reference to the feud between Chancellor and Prime Minister that seemed to determine the election date. Who would be most dominant? Darling: the man to choose the budget date or Brown: the man to choose the election date. That day, Darling announced in the Telegraph that there would be a budget thus scotching talk of a March 25th poll. He boxed the PM in. With Brown on the rack from Bullygate, Darling was on-top.

The fact that the PM today announced the budget date rather than the Chancellor indicates a role reversal and now neither of them trust each other with the lights out. Sparks ahead for the Budget narrative.

So, with April 8th now out-of-the-window and May 6th nailed-on, not least because of the local elections in the Mets, Parliament must be dissolved by April 12th.

The decision to go to a May poll is high risk for Labour. Although Parliament must be dissolved by April 12th at the latest for May 6th, there’s an Easter recess to be squeezed-in before then, and I can’t see MP’s being called-back for a day just for prorogation, not that they actually have to return to London, nowadays. [Note that the Easter recess dates are still to be set.]

The brutal practicalities of this mean that the Election campaign will start on Thursday 25th March, the day after the budget and immediately before Easter, meaning a long campaign during which the broadcast media will be compelled to give equal weight to all parties. I think this is a really significant thing. It's why I wrote about the rules that strict cover broadcasting during the campaign here.

So, I’m not sure why Labour is risking a free-pass to the other parties for longer than absolutely necessary. You’d have thought that they’d have learned from John Major in 1997, who allowed one of the longest campaigns in history and paid the price accordingly.

Perhaps they think the momentum really is with them but when it comes to elections, Mike’s third rule applies. If you’re defending a lead, keep it short and sweet.

I’ve written before that Labour & LibDem’s are fishing in the same pool. The longer the campaign, the more the exposure the LibDems will get so the better the LibDems will do at the expense of Labour and, all other things being equal, that means that the Conservative lead will increase, even if their share remains constant at 38-40%.

I still think that Labour could have sealed-in some of their recent advances by going early. There’s a saying in politics, ‘Quit whilst you’re ahead’. But now they’re risking it all. The more you’re on the box, the better you do in the polls. And Labour have most to lose from a long campaign.

With equality of media coverage during the campaign, they’re betting the farm on those Q1 figures on St George’s Day being positive. If the figures reflect the shocking start in January, it will derail their ‘don’t risk the recovery’ meme with a fortnight to go. Ouch. And with unease in the currency market, who knows what could happen.

Of course, Labour could maintain the fiction that June 3rd is still on the cards but even I can’t see the generally risk-averse Brown throwing their local councillors to the lions on May 6th, from whom the party will rebuild itself in the event of losing control in the General.

So, whether by his own decision or having been forced to by Darling, going for May 6th Brown is now throwing caution to the wind. But then, Labour’s got nothing to lose. It’s double-or-quits.

But with the benefit of hindsight that tip-off in the Oaklands Hotel in Norwich last July that Labour would have the budget and go straight to the country without the inconvenience of a debate now turns out to have been right all along. I just misinterpreted it datewise. Logic indicated that Brown should go early. But Hey! This is politics. Who says that Logic applies?

But that’s no consolation to those that bet on April 8th. Sorry guys. We can’t win ‘em all. I really thought I'd got it nailed.

Bunnco – Your Man on the Spot

Two Stags Lock Horns: Budget or Bust

"Speculation about a spring general election was heightened last night after Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced that he would his hold his Budget on 7 March."



Don't panic! You didn’t miss anything. This is the headline from an article in the Independent on Valentines Day 2001, nine years ago today. It shows that the budget date and a spring election go hand in hand. In this article Bunnco revisits his August 1st 2009 Article where he predicted an April 8th Election following a chance conversation with a senior Tory he met on the Norwich North by-election.

Let’s start with a bit of budget history

“For most of last century, with the exception of the period 1993 to 1996, the annual Budget statement has been delivered in the spring. In his Budget Speech on 10 March 1992 the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (Norman Lamont) announced that he intended to revise the annual Budget timetable so that tax and spending proposals could be presented to Parliament at the same time – the “unified Budget”... the Chancellor's Budget Statement to the House of Commons covered tax proposals for the forthcoming financial year and the Government's spending plans for the next three years, thus combining the Budget with the Autumn Statement.

However, Labour reverted to spring Budgets once Chancellor Gordon Brown had delivered his first Budget in July 1997, where in words which will come back to haunt him, he boasted “My first rule - the golden rule - ensures that over the economic cycle the Government will borrow only to invest and that current spending will be met from taxation."

Budgets have traditionally been delivered on Tuesdays, though there is nothing sacrosanct about the day. Recently Budget statements have been given on a Wednesday.

1990 Major Tue 20 Mar
1991 Lamont Tue 19 Mar
1992 Lamont Tue 10 Mar
1993 Lamont Tue 16 Mar
1993 Clarke Tue 30 Nov
1994 Clarke Tue 29 Nov
1995 Clarke Tue 28 Nov
1996 Clarke Tue 26 Nov
1997 Brown Wed 2 Jul
1998 Brown Tues 17 Mar
1999 Brown Tues 9 Mar
2000 Brown Tues 21 Mar
2001 Brown Wed 7 Mar
2002 Brown Wed 17 Apr
2003 Brown Wed 9 Apr
2004 Brown Wed 17 Ma
2005 Brown Wed 16 Mar
2006 Brown Wed 22 Mar
2007 Brown Wed 21 Mar
2008 Darling Wed 12 Mar
2009 Darling Wed 22 April

Since 1998, the Government has held the annual Budget in the spring and has also presented a Pre-Budget Report in the autumn of each year. The main budget cannot be held within three months of the Pre Budget report.

So this is where we start to think about what this year holds.

Last year's PBR was held on 9th December. Three months after that is Tuesday 9th March 2010, the earliest possible date a budget could be held this spring. It’s not an accident that the PBR was held on 9th December. Somebody had been looking ahead.

Politicians are governed by timetables more than you’d think. With requirements to consult laid down in statute, it’s common to set a date and work backwards from that. Politicians don’t have unlimited freedom of manoeuvre. With an April 8th election, you can have a budget before [starting on 9th March] or after the election [last year's was 22nd April] depending on circumstances. It gives you options so 9th December was chosen carefully. In politics, options are everything.

Recently changed, by law the General Election campaign lasts a minimum if 17 working days exclcuding Weekends & Public Holidays. So if a budget is to be given before the election, then it follows that the earliest possible general election date is 8th April following on from 9/10th March budget as per the timetable I don't think that coincidence with the locals in the Mets/Districts-by-thirds on May 6th is that important.

So, how does recent speculation about a March 25th election square with reports in the Telegraph that "In a speech in Edinburgh, the Chancellor admitted that the 2010 Budget will confirm major spending cuts, but added that the extra cuts a Conservative government would impose would damage the economy. He said that the Budget which, he confirmed for the first time, will take place next month, would also cement: "fair tax rises, with the biggest burden falling on those who can most afford it."

Darling just boxed Brown in.

You'd think that this rules-out the March 25th election. And this is where we get political. Who’s in charge here? Brown or Darling? You can’t have a March 25th election and a March Budget. With the ComRes poll gap widening, any remaining March budget is receding and, in any event, this fails the 17-day rule. We're now into an April ballot at the earliest.

I suspect that Darling [decides the Budget] and Brown [chooses the election] may not be in agreement on the date.

Politically, it makes sense for the General Election to be called as soon as possible. There’s a growing consensus that economic data is getting worse, not better. The cold-snap in January derailed the recovery. VAT is up. Fuel and heating oil are noticeably more expensive and everyone has turned up the thermostat. Ouch.

The Greek Euro debacle is still to play-out. Commentators are lining up to forecast a double-dip to be revealed on St Georges day. Tax rises announced last year hit-home in early April and the QE money’s drying-up. An early election would spare Gordon’s blushes with Chilcott, a critical issue amongst LibDems swingers who he needs to woo. I could go on.

It’s inconceivable to think that Brown would go to the electorate without a budget. People would say he’s got something to hide. So having a budget means Election-delay in a deteriorating environment.

And this is where the battle of wills at the heart of Government is being played out.

Brown could call Darling’s bluff and go for March 25th anyway and hang the consequences. He has to decide whether the criticism for dodging the budget and snubbing his Chancellor outweighs the risks of hanging on and see the emerging poor economic data destroying the long-campaign under an avalanche of Tory money.

But then Darling could just keep Brown guessing. It can be done. Brown did it to Blair for a decade. If Darling decides to take his time in March, then you’d think the May 6th election is nailed-on.

Any May 6th election would be called on April 12th, the day that MPs would return from their Easter recess. That sounds easy but as I wrote back in August last year, I just can’t see this. It would mean that for all practical purposes formal campaigning would start at the start of the Easter recess and that would be expensive for Labour and, because strict broadcasting rules demand equal time for all parties, it would be contrary to Mike’s third golden rule that states the more Cameron’s on the box, the better he does. Labour needs the shortest campaign possible before the wheel falls of the Economic stats.

The compromise, of course is to hold the budget on 9/10th March and call the election straight away for April 8th. But it's leaving it all a bit late. If it was March 9th, previous practice would indicate that the date should have been set by now. But there again, if they want to keep us all guessing....

If Brown's thinking straight, he'll go as soon as he can and force Darling to hold the budget asap. On March 9/10th both Brown and Darling would therefore be able to announce all sorts of ‘official’ forecasts without the inconvenience of having them unpicked in the Finance Bill debates that follow.

An April 8th Election Date is the Thursday after Easter. Brown’s going to reckon that the Tories will be on holiday. The clocks will have gone forward giving activists a long Bank Holiday weekend to deliver the final leaflets.

If Darling holds out for a later date, it would be a case of the tables being turned on Gordon Brown by his Chancellor who, for so many years thumbed his nose at his neighbour at Number Ten.

Recent history tells us that Brown’s going to analyse this to death and then probably miss his chance. And whilst he’s analysing, Darling is digging Labour’s grave with his delay. But what I sense is that the date of the budget is the expression of the battle of wills between two prime stags locking horns: Chancellor and Prime Minister. We'll know who's won in 8 days time when Parliament returns. The budget date announcement can't be delayed much longer than that.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Naming the Date - When will the General Election be?

From time to time there is a fresh round of speculation about the date of the General Election. Some say that, with unemployment [a lagging indicator] getting worse, the sooner it's called for Labour the better. But then Mark Penn pops up so say that Labour can still recover so actually it might be a case of wait-and-see. But one thing's for sure, until we have fixed term parliaments, the Government can call the date so I want to think about when that might be.

The Electoral Commission's website http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/elections/what-is-the-last-possible-date-for-a-general-election states quite clearly what the latest possible date for the General must be.

The five years run from the first meeting of Parliament following a UK Parliamentary general election. The current Parliament was first summoned on Wednesday 11 May 2005, so will cease to exist at midnight on Monday 10 May 2010. A general election to elect the new Parliament must be held by no later than Thursday 3 June 2010.

But how did they get these dates?

For that you need to visit the Parliament Website and an interesting paper RESEARCH PAPER 01/14
Parliamentary Election Timetables http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2001/rp01-014.pdf, where it lays down the statutory basis for calling the date including such interesting details like the provision to delay the date by 14 days should the monarch die during the campaign.

Parliament can be disolved at any time but recent convention has been to proroge it, which is a prerogative act of the Crown, which suspends nearly all business of both Houses, including the sitting of committees, until Parliament is
summoned again. In previous C20 elections, the prorogation ceremony was an elaborate affair that took place whilst the houses were sitting but dissolution can occur at any time, even in the recess by simple Royal Proclamation and the issue of Writs.

Once the dissolution takes place the current timetable provides for a bare minumum of 24 days to polling day. This used to be 17 days but the additional time for postal voting has extended this to 24 days. But this is a tight time scale is rarely followed.

Oftentimes there's a televised announcement that the PM "intends to ask The Queen" to dissolve Parliament and the prorogation follows some days later.... and then a longer date than the 24-day minimum period for the poll is selected. In 1997, the campaign was a record 44 days made up of two parts: The announcement that John Major intended to call a dissolution then the dissolution and Campaign itself.

In Brown's case, he wants the shortest possible campaign because we know [Mike Smithson's third rule] that the more Cameron appears on the television, the better he does in the polls. And in the election period, broadcasting rules mean that the BBC have to give more coverage to the opposition parties than is unsually the case.

The current wisdom is that the General Election will be called on the 6th May 2010, just 28 days before the absolute deadline set by Statute.

And that 6th May day implies that Parliament would be either proroged or dissolved by the 12th April [24 days earlier]. Rather unhelpfully, the Parliament website does not give the dates for the 2010 Easter Recess but, taking this year's as a guide, Parliament returned on 20th April 2009 after just under 3 weeks holidays, that is 7 days after Easter Sunday.

Next year, Easter Sunday falls on 4th April, implying that Parliament would return on 12th April.... the last possible date to call the election on 6th May. Are MP's going to go on holiday in late March and just come back for one day to call the election? I just can't see this myself.

If Brown going to wait until after the holidays, why not announce the Poll on the last day of the Parliamentary spring term, which I assume [based on last year's calendar] to be on Thursday 26th March.... indicating a date of 23rd April as the date.

So, my initial gut feel is that Brown will wait until the last day in June and hang-the-consequences or use the Easter Recess to announce the date indicating a mid April poll. St Georges Day.

But what might spoil this analysis? Well, we have local elections on 6th May 2010 but only in those district Councils that elect by thirds... and nowadays they are in a small minority. I don't actually see coincidence with the Locals next May as important as I did.

In my view, The key determinant to spoil the St George's Day polling-day prediction will be the date of the Budget. This year Darling's budget was delivered on the latest date for many years [22nd April] and the date was announced on 12th February... 69 days ahead of time.

My own Man-On-The-Spot tells me that Brown will use the next budget as a last throw of the dice and then go to the Country straight away. In 2008, the budget was delivered on 12th March, over a month earlier than this year. That date was announced on 1st February, just 39 days ahead. I'd say we're looking at an early budget next year.

If you ask me to guess, I'd say that next year's Budget will be on Weds 10th March 2010 [it always seems to be a Wednesday] with Parliament proroged in an elaborate ceremony the following day... with a quick 28 day campaign to Thursday 8th April in Easter Week, when, Brown reasons, all the Tory voters will be on Holiday.

So, forget the 6th May. it's either 8th April or 23rd April.... And I'm piling it on the earlier date! Whatever it is, it's the date of the budget announced at the end of January which will tell us the date of the election.