Friday 13 November 2009

Easterross- Scottish Predictions

Following on from the Glasgow North East by-election and the large majority Labour achieved over the SNP, I thought revising earlier predictions might be the order of the day.

In the table below I list all seats fought in 2005, the winner (by-elections since shown as *) and runner-up, winner at Holyrood in 2007 (where possible and if 2 seats both winners) and the Easterross 1st and 2nd choice predictions for the General Election.

Constituency

Name

2005 Winner

2005 Runner Up

Holyrood 2007

2010 Predicted 1st choice

2010 Predicted 2nd choice

Orkney and Shetland

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Western Isles

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Inverness, Nairn etc

SLD Gain

Lab

SNP Hold

SLD Hold

SNP Gain

Argyll

SLD Hold

Con

SNP Gain

Con Gain

SNP Gain

Moray

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Gordon

SLD Hold

Lab

SNP Gain

SLD Hold

SNP Gain

Banff and Buchan

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Con Gain

Aberdeen North

Lab Hold

SLD

SNP & Lab Holds

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Aberdeen South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab/ SLD Hold

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Angus

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Con Gain

Dundee East

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Dundee West

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

Dunfermline and W Fife *

Lab Hold *

SLD

SLD Gain

Lab Hold *

SLD Gain *

Fife North-East

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Perth and N Perthshire

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Con Gain

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glenrothes *

Lab Hold *

SNP

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ochil and South Perthshire

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Hold

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Stirling

Lab Hold

Con

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Airdrie and Shotts

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Coatbridge, Chryston etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Cumbernauld etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

East Kilbride etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Falkirk

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain/ Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Motherwell and Wishaw

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lanark and Hamilton East

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Glasgow Central

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold/ SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow East *

Lab Hold *

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold *

SNP Gain *

Glasgow North

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Glasgow North- East *

Speak Hold *

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Gain *

Lab Gain *

Glasgow North- West

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow South- West

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Dunbartonshire East

SLD Gain

Lab

Lab Gain

Lab Gain

SLD Hold

Dunbartonshire West

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Renfrewshire East

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Lab Hold

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Inverclyde

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayrshire N & Arran

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold/ SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayrshire Central

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

Lab Hold

Con

Lab & Con Holds

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Dumfries & Galloway

Lab Gain

Con

Lab & Con Holds

Con Gain

Con Gain

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc

Con Gain

Lab

Lab Hold

Con Hold

Con Hold

Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold/ Con Gain

Con Gain

SLD Hold

East Lothian

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Edinburgh East

Lab Hold

SLD

SNP Gain/ Lab Hold

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Edinburgh North & Leith

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Edinburgh South

Lab Hold

SLD

SLD Hold

Con Gain

SLD Gain

Edinburgh South- West

Lab Hold

Con

Con Hold

Con Gain

Lab Hold

Edinburgh West

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Linlithgow & East Falkirk

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Livingston *

Lab Hold *

SNP

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Midlothian

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Summarising the above, in my first set of likely outcomes we would see Labour 35, Conservative 7, Scottish Liberal Democrat 8 and SNP 9, very much in line with the recent Baxter model summary where polls are Labour 29, SNP 27, Conservative 20 and Scottish Liberal Democrat 15.

In my second set of outcomes, those in which I suggest an alternative winner if not the same party twice, we would see Labour 30, Conservative 8, Scottish Liberal Democrat 9 and SNP 12.

6 comments:

Richard Nabavi said...

Many thanks, Easterross - A very useful summary.

Alastair said...

Easterross, I really like the way that you have presented this, because it gives us a great idea of where you have uncertainty about your mainstream prediction. I shall study this at length - as Richard says, many thanks.

ChristinaD said...

Easterross, many thanks. Agree with the comments above, really useful summary, and love the way you have laid out your predictions too.

Anonymous said...

If only the content of the prediction was as well thought out as the design of the table.

Forge Lindin said...

You're not going to see seven seats go to the Conservatives in Scotland. Economy will be a major theme of the election and the Scottish electorate are not sympathetic to previous Conservative economic policies.

Ezio said...

SNP GAIN SCOTLAND!