Monday, 1 December 2008

Confirmed: ComRes Tory lead down to 1%

Labour has narrowed the Tories’ poll lead to just one point as the “Brown bounce” continues, according to a ComRes survey for The Independent.

It puts the Tories on 37 per cent (down two points on last month), Labour on 36 per cent (up five points), the Liberal Democrats on 17 per cent (up one point) and other parties on 10 per cent (down four points). If repeated at the next General Election it would give Labour an overall majority of 10 in the House of Commons.

The survey suggests that the measures in last week’s Pre-Budget Report, including a 45p in the pound new top rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000, have bolstered Labour’s support among the party’s core working class supporters. Labour’s ratings among the DE bottom social group have risen from 35 per cent to 51 per cent over the past month . In contrast, Tory support has dropped from 39 per cent to 25 per cent among this group.

There are other signs that Labour “identifiers” are returning to the fold The number of natural Labour supporters who say they will vote for the party has risen from 81 per cent to 87 per cent since last month.

29 comments:

BrianSJ said...

database error message on main site.
This result is terrifying.

Diogenes said...

Noone ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the public.

PB - Channel 2 said...

Sorry about the technical problems on main site. This was due to a massive amount of traffic all clicking refresh at the same time.

Mike Smithson

Simon said...

ComRes have got to re-examine their methodology

It just is too far way from all the other (more respected) pollsters

Anonymous said...

The plebs are taking over.

thomas said...

is it true that the poll was on PH an has now been removed?

Richard Nabavi said...

This sounds like an effect of a change in the 'certainty to vote' figure. It seems, frankly, rather unlikely.

Sean Thomas said...

The poll is true. It's now all over the Net. An extraordinary leap in stupid poor ugly people supporting Labour.

John O said...

ICM at 15% Tory lead, MORI at 11% and now ComRes at 1%. Something is really very odd indeed!

Diogenes said...

Given the past relative stability of ComRes polls this does seem extraordinary.

highburylad said...

How very pleasing :-)

Mike L said...

I'm not that surprised.

One thing everyone needs to realise is that the Green saga is probably damaging the Conservatives. 95% of the public will not have digested anything more than "Senior Tory MP arrested". From that everyone will just think "Tory sleaze".

That will damage the Conservatives. Forget everything else.

Ted said...

Do we have the dates for this poll?

Richard Howell said...

This has to be ignored on the grounds of the golden rule. I think we need to see tables and in any case as others have said this poll seems bizarre in relation to icm and mori.

Jaz said...

I compared the tables from weighted results by region from Oct and Nov Comres polls.

Oct South East: Con 46 lab 24
Nov South East: Con 34 Labour 36

This makes no sense since all other regions INCLUDING scotland have con weighted vote increasing.

Sean Thomas said...

I agree. This would seem, to me, to be a certainty-to-vote, er, thingy.

We need more polls! lots of polls! One with Labour 45 points ahead! and one with UKIP surging to a landslide!

Jaz said...

The tables are up on the ComRes website, it's a bit sluggish though.

Anonymous said...

It's incredible how spooked people get by one poll. This isn't about Green, it's just one poll that looks like an obvious rogue.

ICM and Mori suggested double digit leads only a couple of days ago. This is far out of kilter it is an obvious rogue.

thomas said...

Sorry. Labour's support in the South East has RISEN?! 12 points? nah.

Richard Nabavi said...

Jaz - "Nov South East: Con 34 Labour 36"

Eh? Conservative support IN THE SOUTH EAST gone from 46% to 34%???

Sean Thomas said...

Comres is down again. There does seem to be something anomalous about the South East figures, if Jaz is right.

But I leave it to wiser heads to wonk it all out.

fleetofworlds said...

Well, how peculiar. The South-East numbers in particular are very odd.

Seems remarkably different from other recent polls, but there it is. I guess we wait and see what the next one says!

chris said...

@Mike L

There are no dates yet but I would expect the field work to have been before the Green Fever started to spread. Looks like a rogue fueled by old fashioned bash the rich sentiments from Labour's core vote. I doubt it will last.

I'm pissed off with spreadfair for being down all day, with all the debate today I could have closed down a bunch of Labour sell positions then grabbed some more when this poll came out. Oh well it won't be the last time labour shoots themselves in the foot.

Richard Howell said...

Comres site down. ANy one got PDF of tables?

Mike L said...

Main site back up!

Philip said...

Is the main site down again?

Sean Thomas said...

Are we down? Has there been a poll showing the Lib Dems on 67%?

Whassup?

Me said...

The Main site is down....

Anonymous said...

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