Sunday, 20 December 2009

Best constituency prices (December edition)

I've updated my tables of best constituency betting prices. The technology proved as tough as gathering the detail (my thanks to Rod Crosby and wibbler for directing me to google docs to help sort this out). Google docs moaned at the size of the tables, so I have split into two, A-M here:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ASgi8eZw-4q1ZGRkcXR2ZmdfMmZndHJ6a2hr&hl=en

and N-Z here:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ASgi8eZw-4q1ZGRkcXR2ZmdfM2Z2ZDRtZ2hq&hl=en

There are bound to be some mistakes in here - please don't shoot the piano player.

I have marked each market that is new since the last time I looked at this in October and each market where the prices have changed since then (some of these changes are minor, some reflect the bookies converging on a single view. Some are more significant).

Some unconnected observations:

1) It's a shame that Victor Chandler appear to have withdrawn from this market.

2) I was surprised at how many markets have moved. Even allowing for the changes that were inevitable after Victor Chandler withdrew, a lot has happened in two months on these markets.

3) William Hill arrange their constituency markets in a manner most calculated to ensure that the casual punter can't find all of them.

4) Most of the bookies (with the honourable exception of Ladbrokes) could do with being introduced to the concept of alphabetical order.

5) Significant price movements are very much constituency-dependent, but as an extremely general trend, the Lib Dem prices have been shortening. Make of that what you will.

antifrank

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting.
I've been looking through the Welsh ones for some long-shot value, and 6/1 Conservatives in Newport East may be tempting if it comes to an unpredictable 3-way mess, and 4/1 Lib Dems in Wrexham may tempt some people.
I take it 'Vale of Crowd' is meant to be Clwyd?!
Can't understand Ynys Mon. Peter Rogers still isn't listed, although he came third in 2005 and second in 2007, and the official Tory candidate has just quit unexpectedly. I don't think he'll win, but it's odd that bookies don't think anyone would back him.

Meurig

Alastair said...

Meurig, I'm very interested in your comments on Newport East, because I'd been looking at that bet myself, for much the reason you've given. On the main site, however, Punter was of the view that the odds were right. See the discussion that follows my post here:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/20/do-kings-still-count/#comment-1355223

As for "Vale of Crowd", that's what's listed on the Ladbrokes website. I didn't think it right to impose my own interpretation, though I strongly suspect you're right!

antifrank

ChristinaD said...

antifrank, many thanks for doing this.

Anonymous said...

Belated thanks,frank.

Next time just leave out those 1-100, 25-1 bar constituencies. They are a literal waste of space.

B.Pavilion is an interest of mine. All my investigations lead me to believe that LAB are too short and should be a 3-1 shot.That makes either CON or GREEN the value and I like GREEN.


URW

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