Before I delve into the murky and mysterious world of testing times and so forth, I omitted to mention the change to the scoring system in my last article. Places 1-10 will still get points, but they’ve been weighted slightly to give an extra advantage to winning. Here’s the new set of numbers:
25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1
Very little between 2nd and 3rd, but a big 7 point jump for winning. Seems like a good idea to me.
Now I’ve got that out of the way, I’ll cast my eye over the latest tests (a second one in Jerez that was a bit wet, and a Barcelona one that’s more useful).
At Jerez Vettel finished top, then 3rd, with Webber also achieving a top spot. Hamilton and Button once each finished in top 2 spots (Button in 1st). The Mercedes was always around 4th/5/6th… middling for a team with title aspirations. The Ferraris varied a bit, with some decent times, but have reportedly been running with a full tank of petrol whilst wearing plate metal armour and having a bike chained to the back.
At Barcelona there was actually some information beyond opaque lap times. Webber helpfully revealed his top spot on day 1 was in a car with 60kg or less of fuel. That equates to a maximum fuel effect of 1.8s. Now, that’s not precise but it does provide a limited window of insight, especially as the Red Bull is probably equal or better than the McLaren and vying with the Ferrari.
Webber’s top slot time was 1:21.487.
This has an absolute maximum fuel effect of 1.8 seconds, and possibly less. So, it’s reasonable to say that any car that can hit the mid 1:20s is competitive, and any that hits the low 1:20s or breaks into the 1:19s may well be shit hot.
The next day Vettel was two-tenths faster. If they’re on the same fuel load that’s good pace, and what I’d expect. Alonso and Hulkenberg both broke into the 1:20.6s, indicating the Williams will be fighting hard for 5th place, and may even get on the podium occasionally.
On day 3 (Day Hard with a Vengeance) Rosberg also scored a 1:20.6, some good news for Mercedes, who are perhaps not as racey as they’d been expecting.
Day 4 saw the fastest testing, with many cars definitely on low fuel. A stack of cars hit the 1:20s. Hamilton and Webber had 1:20.4s, Massa a 1:20.5, Sutil in the Force India got 1:20.6 as did Vettel, Schumacher got 1:20.7, Barrichello got 1:20.8, and Kobayashi got 1:20.9. Now, we don’t know fuel loads, and if Schumacher had 10kg more than Hamilton and Webber then their pace is equal. But it’s reasonable to say that the Force India almost certainly exceeded expectations, as did Hulkenberg’s Williams two days previously.
I think Massa is worth a punt at 10/1 (present Betfair price). Alonso probably should be favourite but the discrepancy in odds (3.6 to 11) is ridiculous.
I’ll be watching Schumacher’s price (if Mercedes start slowly to the season it may lengthen to silly proportions) over the first few races. For qualifying, my eyes will be most firmly on Hulkenberg (new driver in a Williams should have long odds, but some of his testing has been good) and Sutil/Kobayashi (Force India and Sauber have been looking tasty too). Obviously I’ll be considering practice times, and it’ll be interesting to see how the teams divvy up drivers and fuel loads for free practice.
There are a lot of unknowns going into Bahrain in less than a fortnight. I’ll be paying attention to see whether any team has a particular good launch system, and whether the first corner sees a lot of crashes as a large number of slow, long cars get clogged up.
All things being equal, I intend to try and write pre-qualifying, pre-race and review posts for each race, so my next post will be on the 13th of March shortly after P3 and well before Q1.
Morris Dancer
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6 comments:
I concur that at current prices, Massa is standout value.
I'm abroad with no TV :o(
I shall rely on your excellent race reports!
Morris Dancer.
I'm afraid that I'm not sufficiently interested in Formula 1 to read your whole article in detail. But many thanks.
I respect and admire your passion and diligence for this sport and also your past tipping performance. I was within a whisker of backing Button last year at your suggested odds of 79/1 - but baulked at the last minute. I think because of the bookie being based in the US?
Chris Trinder of PB.com has a blog, kickingbets, and I believe he backed Button at long odds with some bookie but I gather he is still in dispute on getting paid out?
Anyway, as to this season. You have, as promised, finally made a tip on the soundest basis of all. Value.
Massa at 11.0 with Betfair.
I'm on!
I'm afraid, David, you'll have to suffer not just race reports, but summaries of practices *and* qualifying. Hope you can find a way to watch the races later in the season.
stjohn/daveroedj, it's a bit irritating for me making the recommendation for Massa now when I've had my eye on him for some time. The problem was, whilst I don't mind betting on partial information sometimes, there was absolutely nothing to go on earlier.
With any luck he'll do us all a favour and win Bahrain by 3 laps so he can be safely laid at 1.25 or somesuch over-shortened odds.
"the Red Bull is probably equal or better than the McLaren and vying with the Ferrari"
I followed the testing in some detail, and didn't see much evidence for that. I'm not sure that there was much to show between all three in terms of speed. Certainly Ferrari does not look as dominant as initially rumoured.
I don't think Jerez told us much at all.
Comparing the different days at Barcelona isn't very meaningful, as several teams (notably Maclaren) introduced major modifications during the test, and (as you point out) there was huge uncertainty over fuel loads.
And, of course, some (notably Mercedes) will introduce major upgrades at Bahrain.
The final day quali runs and race simulations were arguably fairly representative, as it was the last chance to run a true simulation, and sandbagging would be counterproductive to obtaining essentila data.
Ferrari, Red Bull and Maclaren are all likely to be be vying for P1, I think, though there are a few questions about the Red Bull race pace and reliability.
Bahrain will be a lottery.
Of course the tyres will behave quite differently there. There are at least six drivers with entirely realistic ambitions of taking P1, a situation unprecedented in recent years. Everyone will be o the same fuel load, so it's going to be cutthroat. Getting a clear lap at the right moment will be essential, so luck will be a factor.
Over the full year, my money would be on Hamilton and/or Alonso, as I think they are in the teams best able to develop the cars through the season, and they have the greater ability to put in the metronomic fast laps (though I admit the Massa and Button odds are almost tempting).
It's going to be a fascinating season.
It's certainly true that it's difficult to get much solid information from testing, as we generally have no idea about fuel loads (though Webber did helpfully provide a little insight there).
Regarding Red Bull, the reliability factor may well be important, especially as the extra fuel will increase the workload of the car.
On Bahrain, I've looked over past results and the track and found two small bits of information which might prove useful. I'll be writing more about that closer to the race itself.
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