No, not Vettel’s car, but my calls so far. Two races in and a single correct call is pretty poor, and I think it’s worth (even, perhaps, as a somewhat vain exercise) trying to work out why so I don’t continue in this vein.
First race of the season. I tipped Alonso at 3.25 and Massa at 6.8 for pole. Despite Vettel getting it, I believe the 6.8 was justified. However, the other tip was a case of me being nervous and trying to hedge my bets.
For the race I got Barrichello right for points at 1.95, so obviously that’s a good call (in addition, it seems clear that Sutil, Barrichello and probably Kubica are the best of the rest, outside the top 4 teams). However, the 5.2 for Massa to win was wrong. I’m unsure whether to consider it a justified bet, he finished second, and but for a bad start might have won. The bad start was due in part to a dirt side of the track, so it may have been a bad call. The 18 for Barrichello to get a podium was just moronic. Whilst true it was the first race and we never knew for sure how it’d work, Bahrain is a processional circuit and his car just isn’t quick enough.
I’m going to stick with making a pre-qualifying post for races that take place at Stupid O’Clock, after P2. Probably be tip-less, as a rule.
In the race I tipped (for the win) Alonso at 6.4 and Vettel at 1.8. I missed the first 7 laps but apparently Alonso had a shocker of a start which wrecked his race. This is a second case of trying to hedge bets. I never should’ve backed Vettel at those odds. I think Alonso would have been reasonable in the dry, but given the forecasts it would’ve been better to look at more creative bets, speculative winners or people further back getting a podium. (Indeed, Mr. Tibs and others successfully backed Button at long odds. Congrats to them).
So, there are two clear errors I’ve made twice. Nervousness at backing a bigger outsider leading me to back someone else as well, at shorter odds, and failing to take account of the race conditions (in Bahrain the procession type race, and in Australia the weather).
So, how does this Malaysia look regarding these? The forecast is for rain. How heavy? Best to wait until nearer the time before checking forecasts, I feel. It’s also well worth not just reading the practice times but seeing what the conditions were like when they were achieved. If someone’s shit hot in the wet it doesn’t mean they’ll be the same in the dry. There’s also a difference between torrentially wet and showers, or on and off wetness.
As Jennifer in the comments of the prior post mentioned, last season Malaysia was so wet the race had to be stopped and half points were doled out. This might bode well for Vettel (his car tends to explode in the latter half of races). Other drivers good in the wet are Schumacher, Button (who won there last time out) and Hamilton. Sutil can often punch above his weight in the wet as well.