Sunday 27 March 2011

Australia: post-race analysis

Qualifying summary:

No bets on this, due to the timezone difference and the added difficulty of assessing a brand new season. It was interesting for several reasons. The tyres held on longer than expected, Heidfeld failed spectacularly with 18th and a Q1 exit whereas his supposedly inferior team mate got an excellent 6th, and the KERS failed for Schumacher (costing him a Q3 place), Hamilton and Vettel*. The latter two slaughtered the rest of the field, and Vettel was tremendously impressive, effectively a second ahead of Webber.

The qualifying session was also notable for the very good improvement for McLaren, and the lacklustre performance by Ferrari and Mercedes. Toro Rosso did well, and Sauber will be thrilled with Kobayashi’s 9th. Hard to assess the Williams as Barrichello uncharacteristically slid off and ended Q2 in a gravel trap which put him 17th.

*Later information indicates Red Bull simply aren’t bothering with KERS.



Race summary:

Well, the tip for Hamilton to win at 5.8 didn’t come off. Hamilton was clearly better than everyone save Vettel, but the Wunderkind was in a class of his own. The McLaren driver impressed hugely by doing so well with a broken floor, but frankly Vettel had the entire weekend sewn up. He dominated qualifying, he was never in danger of losing the race and these are ominous signs for the rest of the field. Nor can his success be ascribed solely to the ingenuity of Adrian Newey, Red Bull designer, as he also wiped the floor with his Australian counterpart.

On bets considered but not tipped, Schumacher for top 6 and Button for a podium would’ve proved losers (due to an accident and a deserved drive-through respectively), the 10.5 for Petrov to get a podium would’ve won. Irritating, as always, but it is at least a sign that my eye is in, which is nice.

The start saw some interesting things. It cannot be definitively stated that this represents each team/driver’s true starting form as it’s just one race, but useful pointers may’ve been seen. Schumacher and Petrov started brilliantly, as did both Red Bull drivers. Surprisingly, the McLarens had poor starts, as did (I think) the Ferraris.

Petrov did staggeringly well to get a deserved podium. If I’d believed in him more I would’ve tipped the 10.5 I considered, and that was clearly an error of judgement on my part. Meanwhile, Quick Nick qualified a pathetic 18th and achieved a paltry 14th in the race.

As for Alonso, he ended the race as he ended 2010: behind Petrov. A good solid 4th, nothing spectacular, aided by his team mate getting out of the way and Button getting a drive-through. Ferrari are the third-placed team right now (or possibly fourth, after Petrov’s Renault).

Webber finished 5th, 38 seconds down the road from his team mate. Button recovered well from his drive-through to nab 6th, with an excellent 7th for Mexican superstar Sergio Perez who stopped but once. His team mate, the popular Kobayashi, got overtaken quite often but managed to finish 8th. A lacklustre Massa came in 9th with Buemi 10th.

Tyre degradation was substantially more than last year but not farcically high. As a result we got some interesting strategic divergence, from Perez’s 1 stop to the 3 stops of Alonso and Webber and the 2 stops of Petrov. It may be worth keeping an eye on Perez’s odds, because if he can put in 1 or 2 fewer stops per race than his competitors then he is likely to climb the standings from the grid to the result (he went from 13th to 7th today).

We cannot assess Mercedes. Both drivers were victims of other people crashing into them. Williams likewise failed to finish, although that is better than HRT, who failed to start.

It is worth saying that reliability generally was excellent. Most retirements seemed to be due to accidental damage. It’s disappointing to get my tip wrong, but it is nice to get the season underway and we now have some concrete information.



Musings:

Betting earlier affords better prices but higher risk. Scott P cunningly backed McLaren for the win at 6/1, pre-qualifying, with Coral. After qualifying, the odds were halved (with Betfair). Occasionally last year (usually with tiny stakes) I bet on winning teams pre-practice, but I usually prefer to have more information available before betting, at the cost of shorter odds.

I’ve found it a bit weird only writing one article this weekend. Less work though. Do people prefer this, with tips offered on the main site and a review on pb2, or think the old three articles per weekend system was better?

Already Vettel is evens for the title and Red Bull are shorter than that for the Constructor’s. We’re 1 race into a probably 19 race season, so I think this may be a little bit of an over-reaction. That said, Vettel absolutely slaughtered his opposition today. The question is, will he be able to repeat that on a circuit with many straights and slow corners?

The next race is in a fortnight’s time, in Malaysia. The qualifying and race start at 9am. It’ll be a bit earlier than I’d like, but I’ll try to offer qualifying as well as race tips.

Morris Dancer

12 comments:

David said...

I'm in agreement with Eddie Jordan and Nikki Lauda - they need to change the rules on the DRS - it had negligible effect.

Brundle and Coulthard did well together - more 50/50 than main commentator and analyst, but where always interesting, and we were spared "X is on a charge!" and other such filler.

Ferrari look to be a definite third behind RB and McLaren, who if they develop as they did over the last two weeks (and get their octopus exhaust working) could take a real fight to RB.

Anonymous said...

Aye, I forgot to mention that. To be honest, I don't think the adjustable rear wing was needed anyway and I'm not too fussed that it has little impact. Far better that than artificial overtaking.

I also echo your positive thoughts on Brundle and Crazy Dave Coulthard. Much better chemistry and far easier to listen to.

Development will be limited, I imagine, for the next two races (China's only a week behind Malaysia), so any difference in pace will more likely be down to the different tracks.

Morris Dancer

Nigel said...

"Surprisingly, the McLarens had poor starts"

Lack of practice with the new car/tyre combination ?
If Red Bull show up at the nest race without KERS, I expect them to lose out on the start.

Interesting about Perez -
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/90289

This might not be anything special about the car or driver. It could be something any of the teams might be able to try, if the circuit characteristics permit.

Clearly Vettel is favorite for the championship, but so far I'm happy with the long odds I got pre-season on Hamilton, as McLaren have sorted their problems faster than I thought they would be able to, and the car has potential for development. (Might consider covering a bit, though.)

I'm happy to give DRS a chance.

Anonymous said...

Nigel, do we know for certain what the situation is with Red Bull and KERS?

Interesting article regarding the one-stopper. I do think teams may consider looking at it as a possibility (at tracks where it's feasible).

Morris Dancer

Peter said...

I had two modest bets on a podium finish for both Hamilton (2nd) and Alonso (4th). The latter missed out by just over a second otherwise my break even outcome would instead have produced a handy profit.

The real downer for me was the DNF outcome for both Mercedes, I had high hopes for them this season to finish 3rd or 4th in the constructors.

Unless they can really get their act together over the next 6-8 GPs, I can't imagine that Michael Schumacher will wish to continue - he's deserving of a better car, the same goes for Nico Rosberg.

The revised commentary team worked well, apart from Coulthard's too late to contribute appearance at the very end.

Peter from Putney said...

I had two modest bets on a podium finish for both Hamilton (2nd) and Alonso (4th). The latter missed out by just over a second otherwise my break even outcome would instead have produced a handy profit.

The real downer for me was the DNF outcome for both Mercedes, I had high hopes for them this season to finish 3rd or 4th in the constructors.

Unless they can really get their act together over the next 6-8 GPs, I can't imagine that Michael Schumacher will wish to continue - he's deserving of a better car, the same goes for Nico Rosberg.

The revised commentary team worked well, apart from Coulthard's too late to contribute appearance at the very end.

Peter from Putney said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I had two modest bets on a podium finish for both Hamilton (2nd) and Alonso (4th). The latter missed out by just over a second otherwise my break even outcome would instead have produced a handy profit.

The real downer for me was the DNF outcome for both Mercedes, I had high hopes for them this season to finish 3rd or 4th in the constructors.

Unless they can really get their act together over the next 6-8 GPs, I can't imagine that Michael Schumacher will wish to continue - he's deserving of a better car, the same goes for Nico Rosberg.

The revised commentary team worked well, apart from Coulthard's too late to contribute appearance at the very end.

Peter from Putney

Morris Dancer said...

Mr. Putney, I don't think Mercedes can be written off yet. Both drivers suffered due to damage in accidents not of their making.

My sympathies on the podium situation. I was tempted to back Petrov for one at 10.5, but had the same feeling I used to get when considering backing Kovalainen for a win.

Peter from Putney said...

Many apologies for the quadruple posting - I'd forgotten how to use this Google blog system and repeatedly attempted to post, not realising that each one was racking up.

Nigel said...

"do we know for certain what the situation is with Red Bull and KERS? "

Yes. Christian Horner was interviewed after the race & said they weren't running it owing to reliability problems (Adrian Newey's chassis is so well optimised aerodynamically, it doesn't leave much space to shoehorn the system in & cool it).

BTW, does anyone know how much fuel KERS saves over a race distance ?

Morris Dancer said...

NP, Peter. Premature submission happens to all chaps at one time or another.

No idea, Nigel, I'm afraid.