Qualifying was surprisingly uncompetitive. Kudos to Mr. Nigel, as Vettel got pole, making the 14.5 on him to get pole and win excellent value. Only an idiot would have hedged that bet at 4 (ahem). Rather obviously, this means that my premature 2.8 tip on Hamilton didn't come off. That'll teach me to bet before P3, which really did change the lie of the land.
Anyway, Vettel was three-tenths up on Hamilton, who beat his team mate (10th) by a whole second. Button's title challenge will be over if he can't improve sharpish. The drop-off in performance lately has been dramatic for the Briton.
Alonso was third, under a tenth behind Hamilton, with Webber two-tenths further back. Then we have Rosberg, Massa and Grosjean, followed by di Resta, Schumacher and Button.
So far this season the races have either been thrilling or in Monaco, and Canada's superb circuit is known for the excellence of its races. Pole is not the be all and end all here, although it is worth noting that this season has seen people who aren't called Hamilton enjoy a very strong record of converting poles to victories. In fact, excluding Hamilton, it might even be a 100% record. That's rather counter-intuitive given how competitive the races have seemed, but there we are.
If you did back the excellent Vettel double tip and want to hedge, lay on the winner market (2.18) rather than the double market (2.26) for a bit extra [obviously check and make sure that's still the case beforehand].
I've got to say that it's very hard to try and find value. I do say that quite often, but Vettel's highly likely to win, though 2.1 is quite short and Alonso/Hamilton will be pushing like crazy. To be honest, if I'd thought of the 14.5/27 tips I'd probably just leave it.
The weather looks like being dry, but one potential area of divergence is strategy. A one-stop strategy is viable, but drop-off in performance can be dramatic (as Raikkonen showed in… Bahrain, I think it was). Strategically, Red Bull and Ferrari have been generally competent and McLaren has not.
Decided to back Alonso to win at 6 (Ladbrokes) with a one stake (that's profit, not liability) hedge at 2 and another one stake hedge at 1.5 (so if he got very close and both hedges got matched but he failed to win you'd be up 2 stakes on Betfair with a liability of 1.5 stakes).
My reasoning, hopefully inspired by Athena rather than Hypnos, is thus:
Hamilton will be hampered in the race. If there's a one-stop strategy he'll probably ruin his tyres more than Alonso/Vettel. If there's a two-stop strategy he'll suffer more from slower stops (and maybe very bad ones). McLaren do have the new funky front jack, but their problems have been not with that but with the wheels.
Alonso sometimes has very good starts and has been driving very well recently.
The Red Bull's relative weakness is top line speed, and Vettel has never won the Canadian Grand Prix.
Have to admit I found it extremely hard to find value, but I do think that the race will probably be a Vettel/Alonso fight. Hamilton's very good, but he has been let down by his team and Alonso was punching above his weight even when his car was a dog.
So, just that single tip: Alonso to win at 6, with hedges split at 2 and 1.5.