Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Brazil: Early Discussion

This is the first such early discussion thread, which has been suggested could be useful for identifying earlier betting opportunities. These posts will probably become a regular feature and the emphasis will be on the comments rather than an article.

So, comment away.

Morris Dancer

PS At the moment forecasts suggest a reasonably high chance of rain on race day, but it's still some time off and the forecasts can and probably will change.


Anonymous said...

I would have mentioned the attractions of the 40/1 (net) available last night from Betfair against Raikonnen winning in Brazil this weekend, but these odds have since shortened considerably and are now 27.5/1 and therefore much closer to the rest of the field and to fair value therefore.

Hopefully betting opportunities such as this will help to prove the value of a discussion line.

Morris has also used it to flag up weather trends which is also helpful in helping to assess the prospects for both drivers and cars.

Peter from Putney

Morris Dancer said...

Once the season's over we can discuss the best time for these posts. I'd imagined Wednesday would be fine, but if the odds have shifted already earlier may be better.

Checked the forecasts just now, and a significant amount of rain is eminently possible for the race. Qualifying likelier to be dry.

Anonymous said...

Yes I agree, either Tues or Weds - the betting markets aren't seriously in evidence until then.


Nigel said...

Here's an interesting comment from Ferrari's number 2 driver.
Is he mathematically challenged ?
"Try to win for the third time - that is the right direction to think of," said Massa in a press conference at Interlagos. "Just think of the victory.

"Here is a very special race for me and I am going to try and win and hopefully Fernando can finish second and without any problems win the championship."

Somehow, I think the team will be taking him aside for a quiet word.

Morris Dancer said...

After he took the gearbox penalty I'd guess they'll be happy for him to say what he likes, but if he has to move aside for Alonso to take the title, that's what he'll do.

Weather forecasts now suggesting 80% chance of rain on Sunday, with around half to a quarter of an inch possible at 1pm and 4pm respectively (40% chance of each). Race start is 2pm, local time.

Nigel said...

If it rains, the result in Brazil is more unpredictable than most tracks.
Raikkonen at 40/1 is worth hanging on to (lay @ 10 ?).

Safety car, even at the current short odds, might be worth an investment, too.

Having a lay in place for any race bets is sensible.

Morris Dancer said...

I did have a look at the safety car.

I think it's odds on, but I must admit loathing short odds.

If practice is dry throughout then qualifying and/or the race might be wildly unpredictable. Could be better, if that turns out to be the case, to lay people rather than back them.

Morris Dancer said...

Given the possibility of rain, relative pace and a reasonable prospect of a Hamilton victory I've hedged, again, my Raikkonen top 3 bet at 6.4. I'm now up the same amount either way.

Nigel said...

Sensible decision.

Looking at P3 pace, there's nothing between the Bulls and the McLarens.
I can't see a value bet, as I can't call it between Hamilton and Vettel - and with the chance of rain and a short, crowded track, pole could be anyone's.

Think I'll just sit back and enjoy the action.

Wish I'd had some cash on Button though, when his odds were north of 20 - I'd be laying that now for 4x my money.

Morris Dancer said...

Just about to post the pre-qualifying piece, and have reached the same conclusion. So, no tip for qualifying.