For what it's worth, here's my approximate running order for the teams:
However, it's fair to say it's very tight, and that I could've written 'Raikkonen' instead of 'Lotus'. Grosjean needs to hurry up.
Bahrain is amongst the most boring of circuits and, without checking, I think it might've been the only race last year that was properly tedious. Cars tend to get spaced out very quickly, probably due to bad circuit design, and overtaking is harder than a man trapped in a lift with the Promiscuous Liaison Committee of the Swedish Nymphomaniac Association.
Historically it's been good for Ferrari (Massa especially) although recently, possibly due to the Prancing Horse being a bit lame, this has not been quite the case. They have a better car now, though. Upgrades will be minimal from China so pace should be the same, but the circuit works the rears more than the front tyres, the opposite of Shanghai (which is peculiar in this regard).
Anyway, time for me to stop rambling. Comments, insights, tips and guessing how Webber's car will mysteriously fail to finish the race are all welcome.