Korea: post-race analysis

Qualifying summary:

No tip offered, due to the timezone, and now I feel like a moron. Hamilton tempted me at 5, but I neither tipped nor backed it, and didn’t even mention it. I thought that the pace advantage was strictly wet weather, and whilst the gap did close I was wrong and missed a tasty triumph. Oh well.

Schumacher qualified in a relatively poor 12^th, however, he was unfairly disadvantaged. The Pirelli tyre set he used was, unusually, out of balance and this caused a substantially vibration and cost him circa 0.9s. I hope he gets a new set for free, as, being 12^th, he can obviously opt to change without penalty but he’s already lost out due to Pirelli’s mistake and he shouldn’t lose a set of supersofts because of that.

For the first time this year a Red Bull was not on pole. Vettel was two-tenths down from Hamilton, who seemed very emotional and was just keeping it all together instead of celebrating. Button got 3^rd, Webber 4^th, Massa again beat Alonso (5^th and 6^th), and they were followed by Rosberg, Petrov, di Resta and Sutil.

The run to turn 1 is pretty short. However, Coulthard suggested in commentary that the McLarens might have a long first gear which could cost them at the start but help them out during the race (I’m not well-informed enough to explain why that should be the case, I’m afraid). I’ll check out the first lap leader market, and see what odds Vettel is to lead.

Race summary:

The grid was ideally set up for an exciting race, but a bit of a bugger when it came to betting. In the end I backed Button for the win at 4.7, with a lay at 1.8.

From the main site: “I was agonising over betting on Vettel to lead lap 1 at 6.8, but decided against it after reading of the Vettel non-penalty and Button's relief.”

The race start was unusual as everyone predicted the dirty (even) side of the track would be severely disadvantaged. In truth, there was no difference whatsoever, and the long McLaren first gear didn’t hamper them at all either. Infuriatingly, Vettel did pass Hamilton on lap 1, using the very long straights to get a great slipstream, pass him and then be in the lead in the twisty section where passing is very hard. [Hopefully I’ll remember this for next year]. Meanwhile, Button was third off the line but got passed thrice on lap 1 and ended up 6^th.

At the front, it was depressingly familiar. Vettel rode off into the sunset, his serene procession to victory disturbed only by the occasional effort to secure fastest lap (which he did on the final lap).

However, there was a tasty fight that lasted much of the race between second-placed Hamilton and Webber. Contrary to expectations the Red Bull actually had the edge on the McLaren throughout the race. However, Hamilton defended very well, and superior traction into the DRS straight prevented Webber being close enough to take advantage.

Button was aided by poor initial pits by the Ferraris and got out into 4^th, where he was neither particularly threatened nor particularly threatening. After the race both McLaren drivers complained of understeer, suggesting the set-up was slightly wrong, perhaps compromising any prospect of victory.

Interestingly, Ferrari decided to let its drivers race. As a result, Alonso was held up by Massa for the first half of the race, stayed out longer with quick primes and managed to pass him at the pit stop stage. After that he was often the fastest man on the track and was very close to Button at the end. His comedy radio message “I give up” provided some entertainment near the end. The commentary team were undecided as to whether it was a cunning plan to try and lull Button into a sense of false security, or an unsubtle way of saying “Never, ever let Massa hold me up again, you clowns.”

Schumacher failed to finish due to being rammed from behind by Petrov (as it were), and Rosberg got passed by Alguesuari near the end, the pair ending up 7^th and 8^th. The Toro Rosso was pretty tasty all weekend, and was the only car faster in a straight line than the Mercedes.

Quite an entertaining race, slightly spoilt by the unchallenged supremacy of the newly re-crowned Weltmeister.

Also worth mentioning that tyre degradation was nowhere near as bad as feared, and what had been mooted as a possible 5 stop race turned into a 2 stopper, with very little pace difference between the supersofts and softs.

Musings:

Bloody dire betting weekend. I can forgive myself the failure to go for the 5 pole bet on Hamilton, as I almost always bet just after P3. But I really buggered up the First Lap Leader bet. 6.8 was there for the taking. On the plus side, I’m so pissed off with myself for the error of judgement that I’m hopeful I’ll remember next year and not do it again.

The Button bet was reasonable, though wrong, but he never got close enough for it to even be laid. Just a rubbish betting weekend, really. The only plus side is that I didn’t go for other failed prospective bets I was considering (Schumacher at 3 for top 6 and Hamilton-Button to be top 2 at 3.25). The rocky second half of the season continues.

In non-whinging news, Red Bull secured their second Constructors’ in a row, which was not very surprising. They have had the best car, but I think Vettel may be an even bigger asset than Newey, judging by the advantage he’s had over his team mate. Next year there are few regulation changes, for once, so hopefully it’ll get closer at the front and Mercedes can offer a car capable of podiums or the odd victory.

So, the preantepenultimate race has not been a happy one for me. The antepenultimate race takes place in India in a fortnight. P3 ends at 7.30am (bit weird for a half hour finish) so I may be able to offer a qualifying tip, or two. Let’s hope it’s a bit more profitable.

Just checked the Indian circuit diagram. After the start, which is quite long, there’s a very long straight, so that could enable two opportunities for passing (or, for the leader to re-take first position if he gets dropped to second off the line) and could be a rare case of hedging a First Lap leader bet making sense. I’ll consider it nearer the time.

Morris Dancer

Japan: post-race analysis

Qualifying summary:

No bets offered for this, as P3 was from 3am to 4am and I didn’t get up to watch it and bet.

The first two practice sessions were notable for a few reasons. Firstly, Vettel outpaced Webber twice, suggesting he’ll get pole without serious challenge. Secondly, Button (who has been driving very well of late) beat Hamilton twice, and, last and probably least, the Williams’ drivers took three out of four opportunities to finish a session due to crashing or mechanical failure.

Qualifying was defined by the reluctance of the teams to use up their tyres. They’re all afraid of significant tyre wear, which may hamper some teams (Mercedes, alas) but help others (Ferrari).

Q1 was notable for Rosberg failing to get out at all and therefore starting 23^rd. Button very narrowly missed out on pole to Vettel, and I feel Hamilton may have taken it had he not fallen asleep during his out-lap and missed the boat. They line up Vettel, Button, Hamilton, Massa, Alonso, Webber, Schumacher, Senna, Petrov and Kobayashi.

Race summary:

I’d offered an early tip (after P2, pre-P3) on Schumacher to get a top 6 place at 2.75, with Ladbrokes. Rosberg going out in Q1 was handy, but high tyre wear was not. I also offered what I consider a single tip for Button or Hamilton to win (I avoided the McLaren to win bet because the odds were less favourable and advocated splitting a single stake to give equal profits for either McLaren driver to win) at 4.9 and 5.9 respectively, hedges at 1.4 each. Because of the nature of the bet I’m considering the Button-Hamilton bet to be a single tip rather than two.

At the start Vettel decided to emulate Herr Schumacher and introduced Button’s tyres to the grass as he pushed him wide, enabling Hamilton to nab second. Surprisingly, the Ferraris did not start as well as we’ve grown used to, and Schumacher made up a single place, largely due to Kobayashi having a dire start.

The first few laps were displeasing, as the top cars all seemed to develop a few seconds between themselves, and I was worried it would turn into a procession with sizeable gaps between frontrunners. Happily, I was wronger than the thirteenth Duke of Wrongcaster.

Hamilton suffered a puncture, freeing Button into second and necessitating an earlier than desired pit stop. Shortly thereafter Button made his tyres last better than Vettel, who pitted first, and managed to reduce the gap to the World Champion Elect during the initial pit stops.

As has become customary on these occasions Hamilton and Massa were scrapping over a place and there was contact. It was nothing serious, but a pointy bit of carbon fibre littered the track and, some laps later, prompted a safety car to appear.

After another pit stop Button emerged ahead of Vettel, who had suffered bad traffic when he rejoined the track. All the top chaps except Schumacher had pitted twice when the safety car came out, and the wily old German ducked into the pits and got almost a free stop.

Button seriously backed up the pack when the safety car came in and then bolted, adding a healthy half second to his advantage over Vettel. By the time (2 laps later, as per the start) DRS was re-enabled he had over a second lead.

Then came the third and final stops. As Schumacher pitted last he led the Grand Prix whilst the others pitted, and his team-mate helpfully held up Massa long enough for the necessary lead to be built. Schumacher pitted and came out in 6^th, ahead of his former Ferrari team-mate. Although the gap was always small fresher tyres and the mighty Mercedes top speed meant Schumacher held onto the place until the end.

At the front, meanwhile, Alonso had come out ahead of Vettel. For many laps the German, not content with a mere third place, sought to pass the Spaniard. However, traffic issues (provoking a shaken fist of disgust from Vettel) put paid to any serious hopes of getting second. Worryingly, Alonso then started closing on Button, who benefited from the Ferrari and Red Bull tussle.

Happily, the Briton decided he wanted to win after all, sped up a little bit and got the victory by a small margin.

I’d put the Button-Hamilton tip down to sound judgement, and the Schumacher one down to pure luck.

Musings:

After some lacklustre results since the mid-season interval I can’t complain about getting two from two. That said, I did consider backing Alonso for a podium at 2.7 but thought the Ferrari incapable of such a feat versus the McLarens and Vettel.

Regarding my longer term bets (Button top 3 and Alonso/Hamilton to finish 2^nd) this result is pretty helpful. I’m green either way due to cautious hedging, but right now the former seems quite likely and the second is not yet impossible.

The race was interesting for a few reasons, one of which was the divergence within teams between drivers. Button, Alonso and Vettel had good races, but Webber never threatened a podium, Hamilton was clearly inferior to Button, and Massa was well off the pace.

Now that the title race is over it’s worth saying that it has not been the most thrilling, especially in the wake of the fantastic 2010 season. Vettel has crushed his opposition with ruthless ease.

However, individually, the races have been almost uniformly excellent. Yes, Valencia was as much fun as a distressing bowel movement and Singapore was less than super, but we’ve also had some truly epic races. China was thrilling and Canada was perhaps the finest race I can recall seeing, with the truly glorious (and profitable) victory for Button.

Bit early for 2012 season thoughts, although I would say that Alonso may be best placed to challenge Vettel as he enjoys number 1 status at a rival team.

Betting-wise, it was better not to hedge. Assuming £10 stakes you would be a whole £4 better off.

The next race is Korea in just one week’s time. I hope it isn’t quite as soggy as last year.

Morris Dancer

Mark says it was the women, I am not so sure

In today's lead article on PB.com, Mark Gill contends that it was women who denied the Conservatives an overall majority in the election last year. I however wish to contend that actually it was men who denied Cameron a majority.

After the election in May 2010, I found data referring to exit polls going back to the October 1974 general election and was amazed at how much information there was as it not only showed the national exit poll, but how the genders voted, but the ages and the social classes and by using the calculation for swing several election mysteries began to make sense.

Why did Labour do so badly in 1983?
In the 1983 general election, there was a national swing of 5% from Labour to Conservative. This swing was repeated evenly among the genders,  but not quite so evenly among the ages. There was only a 4% swing in new voters, a 3% swing in second and third time voters, but a 6% swing in the older voters. But what really did it for Labour in 1983 was the 4% swing to Conservative in their traditional class, the DE's, In October 1974, this class recorded a 57% Labour vote, in 1983 it was only 41% with most of the change in support going to the Alliance.

Why did the Conservatives win in 1992?
A 2% swing to Labour in 1992 was nowhere near the swing that Labour needed even for a hung parliament. Men recorded a 4% swing to Labour (hung parliament), Women recorded a 1% swing (Con maj) but the real problem was the famous C2's. The voters who were able to make seats such as Basildon change hands didn't swing as much. Labour only managed a 3% swing which explains why seats like Southampton, Itchen was a Lab gain but Basildon was a Con hold.

So why didn't Cameron gain an overall majority in 2010? Well, the national swing was 5% to Conservative. Men recorded the national swing, but women did better recording a 6% swing. If anyone denied Cameron an overall majority it was the first time voters. Compared with 2005, Labour fell by 7%, the Conservatives rose by 2% (a 5% swing) but it was the Liberal Democrats who rose by 4% (indicating a 1% swing from Con to Lib Dem) who puts the brakes on a Con overall majority and might also explain why as soon as the Liberal Democrats broke their tution fees promise the Liberal Democrat vote has collapased to 1979 levels (and lower in some polls)

Singapore: post-race analysis

Since Monza:

My early thoughts (writing this the day after the Italian GP) are that Ferrari and Alonso may be faster than many expect in Singapore. The Ferrari has suffered on the medium compound white tyres at the last two races, as it’s not very quick at getting heat into them, leading to less grip. However, Singapore is using the soft and supersoft compounds. This will get rid of the heat issue (I think) and may also give a real advantage as the Ferrari is kind to its tyres. By contrast, tyre-shredder Webber and the Mercedes may suffer. If this proves accurate, it’ll be more of a race issue (if the race is dry) than one for qualifying.

Qualifying summary:

Unusually for a normal(ish) race in terms of practice and qualifying times I decided not to offer any tips. In my view Vettel was rightly favourite at 1.45, but the odds were too short, and (his laps being largely compromised by traffic) it was very difficult to accurately assess pace at the sharp end. I did look around for other tips, but there was nothing that caught my eye.

Practice was notable for the first session losing 38 minutes due to bizarre incompetence by the race organisers, as numerous bits of curb were unsecured. As a result, some parts have been removed, enabling drivers to take a wider line, albeit at the risk of introducing their car to the wall.

Practice saw, generally, the Red Bull fastest over a single lap, followed by McLaren then Ferrari, but Alonso marginally faster than Vettel and substantially quicker than the McLarens when it came to heavy fuel running. So, I expect Alonso to be on the second or third row come qualifying but with some opportunity to make up places in the race.

Race summary:

Well, this was two hours of tedium and woe. I backed Webber at 9.6 for the win (this lengthened to 12 before the race), as the odds were rather ginormous for a second-placed man, despite Webber’s bad starts of late. However, he decided to have yet another awful start, then managed to lose out at almost every pit stop and never challenged for the lead.

Vettel started well, retained the lead, and was only under threat briefly, when McLaren waited until the last 10 laps to get Button (also processing serenely to the podium) to have a go. Surprisingly, as both were on fresh option tyres, Button caught Vettel at a great rate of knots but the gap was simply too large to be reduced in the limited time available.

Hamilton started badly, then lost a wing in an altercation with Massa, then got a drive-through penalty because of the aforementioned contact, and did well to recover to fifth.

Webber had a bit of a disappointing race following another bad start, being held up repeatedly by Alonso and being unable to approach Button who consistently held second.

Alonso was fourth, hampered by a Ferrari that, contrary to expectations, chewed up its tyres whilst at the same time being not very fast relative to McLaren or Red Bull.

Other incidents of note include a great sixth place for di Resta, who has been impressive throughout the season, and Schumacher taking Perez from behind, losing his front wing (one can only imagine he has shares in the company that makes them, or is perhaps being sponsored to get through as many as he can this season) then ramming into the wall after a little airborne action.

The Renault was catastrophically poor. They got back-to-back podiums, I think, at the start of the season, yet finished 15^th and 17^th here (Senna again beating Petrov).

There were moments of excitement, quite a few passes, but the two leading cars were never under threat and it was more of a farcical slapstick than high drama. Not as bad as Valencia, but otherwise probably the most boring race of the season. I remain less than thrilled about street circuits.

Musings:

Given my poor performance since the mid-season break I might write something trying to analyse and resolve any problem there might be.

I got the Webber tip wrong, obviously. However, almost all the other tips I considered (Alonso for podium or win, Button for the win, lay Webber for a podium) would also have lost. The only two exceptions were backing Button for a top 3 qualifying finish at 3.4 (didn’t tip because there wasn’t enough money available) and a safety car (it did appear, but the 1.2 odds were just too short). The only betting upsides are that I only offered one wrong tip rather than many, and that the result plays quite nicely for my preferred Top 3 Title contenders and Winner Without Vettel result (Button and Alonso, respectively, but marginally green whatever happens).

I really hated the odds for this. However, you can only bet on what’s there in front of you. We go to Japan in a fortnight, then the new Korean circuit, the debut at India, Abu Dhabi and the fantastic Interlagos in Brazil.

So, the next article will either be Japan in a fortnight, or a contemplative post in a week or so.

Morris Dancer

General Election 2015 : The (Very) Early Assessment

First of all, credit where it is rightly due.
To The Guardian Newspaper for their exceptionally speedy turnaround of the Boundary Commissioners inital proposals and Google Earth map file of the proposed constituencies, Anthony Wells for his even faster conversion of those proposals into constituency estimates (for all the parties not just Con, Lab and Lib Dem) and finally the Sheffield University Spatial Geography department for converting the BBC's election colours into both HTML code and RGB codes.

So, England is to lose some 30 seats and have 502 seats which according to the calculations would see 293 Conservatives elected (including the Speaker), 173 Labour MP's elected and 36 Liberal Democrats elected (based on the 2010 election) with Labour being the biggest casualties losing some 18 seats (compared to the Conservatives losing 5 and the Lib Dems losing 7), but where does this put us in the context of a general election.

Well, as we don't know what the Scottish or Welsh proposals are going to be yet, we cannot say for sure, but we can say that based on the announced reductions you need 301 seats to gain an overall majority in the new House (down from the current 326) and therefore the Conservatives (who were 19 short in 2010) are already only 8 short of an overall majority (with Wales and Scotland still to announce), but as there is only one Conservative MP in Scotland (which is likely to go) and based on the assessments of Wales in the past suggesting only three Conservative MP's, let's work on the assumption the Conservatives need five seats for an overall majority and 30 for a good working majority of 50 or so. What seats might attract their attention?

Well, the first thing to note is that the top 30 English Conservative targets are 67% Labour and 33% Lib Dem and as we saw in the locals this year, Con vs Lib Dem battles do seem to side with the Conservatives, therefore the Conservatives have their overall majority. However as we also saw in the locals, there was an almighty swing from Conservative to Labour, suggesting that it will be Labour on the advance. Current estimate: Con 303 Lab 173 Lib Dem 26

Now, for Labour to win an overall majority they have really got to go some. They need a rather staggering 128 gains just to get an overall majority of 1 (and a further 15 - 25 gains in order to get an working majority). Remind you of a certain David Cameron anyone? So what do these 128 gains comprise, well, thanks to the changes rather a large number of current Labour seats. For instance, number 10 is Hull West and Hessle, 37 is Southampton, Test, 40 is Walsall South, 44 is Birmingham, Erdington and 124 is Walsall North. Number 128 is Bosworth which would go Labour on a swing of 11.73%. The latest polls are suggesting a swing of about 5% (59 gains) but with the Lib Dems being hit the most (11% swing from Lib Dem to Lab) so based on that the tally would be: Con 249 Lab 237 Lib Dem 16

And we cannot rule out the odd suprise along the way. For instance, the Greens may have lost their Brighton, Pavillion seat to Labour, but as their number one target who is to say that they can do it again and win the new Brighton, Pavillion and Hove or even take a second seat in Norwich South (7.22% swing from Lib Dems). So as things stand at the moment, my inital suggestion is that in England the Conservatives and Labour would be virtually neck and neck with the Conservatives ahead of Labour by about 10 but with Labour certainly assured at least 50 seats in Scotland and Wales (taking them up to 287) can Ed Milliband encourage Labour to take those last 14 gains and regain a Labour overall majority?

Who now hates Nick Clegg?

Last November, I posed the question on pb2 “Who hates Nick Clegg?”

http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-hates-nick-clegg.html

My analysis showed an intriguing split, with Labour supporters remarkably united in their disdain for the Lib Dem leader. If Nick Clegg is not going to add as a serious drag on his party’s polling, he needs to improve his public standing before the next election.

Have Nick Clegg’s ratings started to improve?

No. The two pollsters who regularly poll on the standing of the party leaders, YouGov and IPSOS-MORI, offer no comfort to Nick Clegg. Both have issued new polls on this subject this week. By 67% to 22%, the Great British public as polled by YouGov think that he is doing badly rather than well. According to IPSOS-MORI, 59% are dissatisfied with the way that he is doing his job as Deputy Prime Minister and only 31% are satisfied. These figures are actually considerably worse than in November last year.

Where has this deterioration come from?

Impressively, Nick Clegg seems to have been able to alienate still more Labour supporters in the last 10 months. IPSOS-MORI now find that fully 78% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied, up from 71%, and 90% of YouGov respondents with a Labour allegiance now think that he is doing badly, up from 87% last year.

He still gets the nod from the largest part of Conservative supporters with IPSOS-MORI (49% to 41%) and his figures are a respectable 39% to 51% with Conservatives with YouGov. But to put this in context, Conservative supporters still rave about David Cameron – fully 94% of YouGov Conservative supporters think that David Cameron is doing well and 78% of IPSOS-MORI Conservatives are satisfied with him. Nick Clegg is standing in his shadow, so far as Conservatives are concerned.

It gets worse. According to YouGov, 28% of current Lib Dem supporters now think the Lib Dem leader is doing badly. In November last year, this figure was 14%. So this has doubled in 10 months. IPSOS-MORI shows a less dramatic move in dissatisfaction among Lib Dem supporters – up from 34% to 42% since November. But it’s unlikely that Nick Clegg will take much comfort from that.

Has the intensity of anger diminished?

Not obviously. YouGov allow respondents to say whether they think Nick Clegg is doing badly or very badly. 59% of Labour supporters say that they think that he is doing very badly. That is actually a slight improvement on the 61% who thought this last year, but the Lib Dems would need to be very creative to turn that into a bar chart. Meanwhile, fully 36% of all respondents now think that he’s doing very badly, up from 27% last year.

Conclusion

Nick Clegg needs to improve his ratings from the very poor levels that they plunged to following the formation of the Coalition. But instead he is sinking further. He has 3 years and 9 months at most to see improvements. But given what has happened to his polling in the last year, it may already be too late. The public may already have made their minds up.

antifrank

Italy: post-race analysis

Since Spa:

In a first this season there will be both two DRS zones (which we saw in Montreal and Valencia) but also two detection zones. The thinking is that this will aid overtaking, of course, but also that it will make up for a lesser DRS effect, presumably due to the generally high speed nature of Monza.

Tyre allocations for the weekend are the same as for Spa (soft yellows and medium whites). This is bad news for Ferrari, who suffered greatly when trying to get heat into the white tyres at Spa. They’re also more adversely affected by the cold, for the same reason.

Qualifying summary:

The first practice session was handy as all times were set on white tyres, enabling an approximate comparison. McLaren were fastest, followed by Red Bull, with Ferrari some way back.

Second practice had Vettel, Hamilton and Schumacher at the top, followed by the two Ferraris, Webber, Button and Perez. However, the commentary chaps reckoned that the McLarens were relatively slow on heavy fuel. That could prove handy for Red Bull and Mercedes.

Third practice had Vettel ahead of everyone by a few tenths, and on that basis I tipped him for pole at evens.

To my surprise and delight, Vettel not only got pole, he slaughtered his opposition. Hamilton and Button were 2^nd and 3^rd, but Hamilton was almost half second behind the Weltmeister.

Even more oddly, Webber (who had just one run rather than two) was down by seven-tenths on his team mate, and managed only 5^th, directly behind Alonso and ahead of Massa. The top 10 were rounded out by Petrov, Schumacher, Rosberg and Senna, but it’s worth mentioning that Rosberg did Q3 on the prime tyre (the slower white compound) and Senna did not set a time at all.

Race summary:

I found the race even harder to predict than qualifying. In the end, I opted for a Vettel win tip at 2.3 and a Webber podium tip at 2.75 (although this did later lengthen to 3.25). A gentleman from Putney suggested, pre-P3, backing Schumacher for a top 6 place at 3.05, which I also put a little on.

The start was very exciting. Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton entered turn 1 abreast, and left it in the above order. Meanwhile, Webber and Button continued their habit of starting poorly, and Schumacher continued his of taking off like a rocket. However, the midfield was torn to shreds by a HRT car which decided to go for some off-track rally action and rammed its way through half the midfield runners.

A safety car appeared, a few cars (especially those that had slyly begun the race on medium white tyres) dove into the pits, and the numerous cars, including Rosberg’s and Petrov’s, destroyed by the incident were removed from the circuit.

At the sharp end, Schumacher’s ultra-fast Mercedes had gotten past Hamilton, and was holding him up. This continued for many laps, and the wily old fox was rather robust with his defensive moves at times.

Still before lap 10, Webber (who had fallen back, due to his bad start), tried passing Massa but unfortunately forgot that two objects possessing the same co-ordinates in time and space contravenes the laws of physics. He whacked the Ferrari, lost his front wing and spun Massa around. Shortly thereafter, Webber’s car, angry at his mistake, refused to turn at a corner (possibly due to nearly zero front downforce resulting from no front wing) and he thumped nose-first into a barrier and out of the race.

Vettel, meanwhile, completed a staggeringly good pass on Alonso, going around him in a sweeping, high speed corner. Pass done, he then drove off into the sunset and divided the rest of his time between growing and maintaining a healthy lead and doing the Financial Times crossword.

Schumacher put Hamilton onto the grass slightly (still, better than a concrete wall at 200mph), allowing Button to sneak past his team mate and then immediately past the German. Many laps later Schumacher yielded to Hamilton, perhaps reasoning the pass was only a matter of time and such defensive driving was damaging his tyres.

As predicted the Ferrari was poor on white tyres and this enabled cunning Button to pass him and reach second place. Briefly it appeared as though Alonso might yet retake the place, but by the final lap he was just ahead of Hamilton. Another lap and he would’ve finished in fourth.

Musings:

Schumacher got a very solid fifth, for the second race running, making Mr. Putney’s tip nice and profitable (and better than mine). I got one right and one wrong for the race making it very slightly profitable, and got my solitary qualifying tip correct. After the woes of Spa I’m happy enough with two from three, and a small profit augmented by the wisdom of Mr. Putney.

Webber crashing out was irksome, both as it meant that bet failed and I have no idea if it would have come off. I think it had a reasonable chance, but we’ll never know.

Yet again, both Ferraris and Schumacher had electric starts, Red Bull varied between a big sluggish (Vettel) and nodding off (Webber) and Button was also a little slow. I did consider the First Lap leader bet briefly but decided against it.

There is a silver lining to Webber’s failure to finish (the first time since Korea last year a Red Bull has failed to win points at a race), which is that Alonso now becomes second in the title race, a more profitable place for my Winner Without Vettel market bets (Alonso or Hamilton winning gives more than anyone else). However, still a bit irked that he crashed out, but that’s racing.

So, why did the car that is substantially slower than its rivals in a straight line manage to win at a circuit which is all about top speed?

Because, as I’ve said before, Vettel is clever. He and Webber opted for differing gear ratios at the top end (gears 6 and 7). Vettel went for short ratios, reducing top end speed but, I believe, enabling the car to be quicker through the sweeping corners. In practice and qualifying the McLaren was much faster in sector 1 but was losing about half a second in sector 3 to the Red Bull.

This is also why Hamilton had such difficulty, even with DRS, passing Schumacher. The Mercedes was cheerfully set up to be fast as hell in a straight line, but McLaren had copied the Red Bull path. The problem is, overtaking in a straight line is bloody hard when the bloke in front is about the same speed as you, and passing elsewhere, even if you have speed in hand, is also tough.

Unfortunately, after the epic old European circuits, we’re off to the tedium of Singapore in a fortnight. Hopefully it won’t be like Valencia, presently the only boring race of the year.

Morris Dancer