Saturday, 28 August 2010

Spa: pre-race

Pretty disappointing to get my pole prediction wrong. However, Hamilton was layable, so I finished all square for qualifying.

Now, a big challenge: make a profit (not a loss) for the race. But first, here’s the top 10:
Webber, Hamilton, Kubica, Vettel, Button, Massa, Barrichello, Sutil, Hulkenberg, Alonso.

Of note is Alonso’s strange 10th place. Not sure why he was so rubbish in Q3.

And here’s the weather forecast: possible rain (there’s a shock).

I’ve decided to back Kubica for the win, at 15. He’s third, and has consistently been near the sharp end of the grid. The Renault F-duct is working well, which should make him faster than the Red Bull in sectors 1 and 3, and give an advantage at the start and for any restarts. Not sure how big an advantage starting on the clean side of the track will be, but it certainly won’t be a problem (unlike the dirty side which can slow down cars when starting).

Hamilton’s oddly shorter than Webber, at 2.92, with Webber 3.45. Given the possibility for rain or other unpredictable events, I’m not sure either is value. Furthermore, Spa has a bad history of returning pole-sitters as victors, and only a third of victories so far this season have come from the chap who led the grid at the start.

I was tempted to back Button at 3 for a podium. I can see him passing Vettel at the start, but I can’t see him getting past anyone else, unless he has an absolute stonker of a start or rain comes. Similarly, backing McLaren for the win is an appealing idea, but they’re just 2.4 despite starting 2nd and 5th, so I decided against it.

There were lots of bets that were borderline value for me (the ones above, laying Webber or backing Hamilton to lead lap 1, Button for the victory), but I’ve decided to just have the one tip and bet.

Kubica, to win, at 15 (naturally, with lays set up in case he gets in a promising position but fails to capitalise).

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

Kubica looks value - but he's pretty downbeat about his prospects.

Still, with a wet race in prospect, anyone near the front on those odds ought to be worth a punt. Just hope that Renault have sorted his fuel feed problems.

Morris Dancer said...

That was my thinking. I briefly considered backing Massa at 22 at Germany. Obviously, he didn't win, but he would've been layable at 1.5 or suchlike, for a massive profit either way.

If Kubica can pass Hamilton immediately, he stands a reasonable chance of taking Webber on the high speed first sector. As you say, rain could well make the race topsy-turvy. It should be pretty entertaining, especially at the start.

jamei said...

I agree there are a few borderline bets that have nearly tempted me, laying some of the top 10 to be classified or get points for example. I think the First Lap Leader odds are about right (Webber at 1.7, whereas Vettel has gotten a great value lay at 1.25 in the past).

In the end I've gone for your Kubica tip, which I'll be looking to lay before the first pitstop.

I'll also be watching the new Forecast market during the race, as with a bit more liquidity a quick-thinker might grab a bargain there.