Sunday, 1 August 2010

Hungary: post-race analysis

Vettel had a decent start, Alonso got close but not close enough. So, one tip from two right but because of the woefully short odds if you bet £10 per tip and didn’t lay, you’d be down £1.50.

Congratulations to Jamei for his great call to lay Vettel at 1.5 or so. Infuriatingly, I did actually bet in-game to lay him at 1.28 when the safety car came out, but when he was second with Webber unpitted in first I closed that position down to end neutral. Then, a few laps later, Vettel got the drive-through. So, bloody annoying, but kudos to Jamei.

Alonso got second, and managed to whine like a bitch about it in the press conference. Kudos, El Grumpino, it takes a special sort of miserable git to complain when giving a press conference having achieved a bloody lucky second place.

The race, despite having few overtaking manoeuvres at the sharp end, was quite exciting. I’ve already mentioned the race-deciding incident which had me dreaming of ways to annihilate the ever more irksome Legard [BBC commentator]. Near the end of the race Schumacher pulled a disgraceful move, trying to defend his place by pushing Barrichello into the wall. Thankfully the Stigslayer survived and passed his nemesis to get 10th and a championship point.

Elsewhere, Hamilton was running a solid 4th, ahead of Massa, when his car suffered transmission failure. A rare reliability problem for the McLaren. Further down the grid his team mate netted a paltry 8th.

Kobayashi went banzai, as predicted by me, but did better than I expected, surging from 23rd to 9th [he was 5 to get points, a bet I considered but decided against].

Petrov put in a stunning performance, coming 5th, just ahead of fellow rookie Hulkenberg who got himself 6th. De la Rosa was 7th, making this a nice weekend for Sauber.

Mercedes had a shocker. Schumacher’s attempt to leave a Barrichello-flavoured bloody smear on the wall failed and he got no points, and Rosberg, who had looked good, ended up being rather unfortunately retired when a tyre was put on improperly and left as soon as he exited the pits.

Nice to get a tip right, even if it was at rubbish odds but a bit annoyed with myself due to the net loss. In addition, this was the first race since I started keeping more detailed records where laying would’ve put you in a worse position than not laying.

So, Vettel should’ve won this. He was fastest by miles, but a strange cock up over the safety car led him to get a drive-through, giving the grumpiest cheat in the world second place. Webber was fortunate, but would’ve got second at least due to some good lap times.

Here are the contenders for the Drivers’ title:
Webber 161
Hamilton 157
Vettel 151
Button 147
Alonso 141

I do think McLaren can pull this back. They’ve got a long break until Spa (last weekend in August) and last year showed they can develop the car throughout the season. In addition, it’s clear to see where they can improve (flexi-wing and blown diffuser). Furthermore, Hungary was a very bad track for McLaren and very good for Red Bull, and they were unlucky Hamilton didn’t get 4th, which would’ve had him still leading the title race.

Because it’s such a long time until the next race, I might write one or two inter-race articles, depending on what happens.

Disappointing to have a second consecutive losing weekend, but at least the margin was small. I think I’m reasonably good at qualifying but relatively poor on race day [like Vettel] so that’s something to try and work on.

Morris Dancer


Jamei said...

If anyone call pull it back it's McLaren, but I'm having a hard time holding my nerve as at this stage I am green on Hamilton and red on Webber, while breaking even on Alonso and Vettel. However I am not going to lay Hamilton or put money on Webber at this stage.

The FIA are going to introduce more stringent tests on the front wing, and also examine the floor of the cars before the next race. This might not affect the Red Bull's pace, but there's a decent chance it will.

Also, Hungary is almost the perfect track for the Red Bull car, they won't have such an advantage in future races (unless their development leaps ahead of the others) and this might not be fully refelcted in their now shortened odds for the championship.

Morris Dancer said...

That's almost the exact opposite of my position. Alonso's my worst winner, Vettel/Hamilton are small red, and Webber/Button are small green.

I concur entirely with your view on the Hungaroring.

However, I think the elimination of the flexi-wing might be a serious setback for the Red Bull.

Morris Dancer said...

James Allen reckons even losing the flexi-wing won't derail the Red Bulls:

I used to loathe his commentary, but I think Legard is even worse :(