Sunday, 12 September 2010

Monza: post-race analysis

A very interesting race, more tense than exciting, from my perspective. A very mixed bag regarding the tips. Button didn’t win, but came close enough to be laid. Alonso did fail to lead lap 1, so that came off. Hamilton’s kamikaze move on Massa meant a podium was impossible for him.

The tension was enormous at the front for the first 30 odd laps. Button got the jump on Alonso at the start, which also saw Hamilton pass Webber (who went backwards rapidly, to about 9th). However, Hamilton’s cack-handed efforts with Massa saw his race end on lap 1. Button managed to keep Alonso behind him until the pit stops. McLaren moronically telegraphed their stop, Ferrari responded, held out a lap longer, and passed Button.

The Red Bulls had excitement of a different kind. Webber slipped to 9th from the start and then fought through the field, eventually passing Hulkenberg, despite some chicanery, to get 6th.

Vettel’s race was weird. He was 7th to Webber’s 8th, but suffered a temporary engine problem (during which he let Webber past). He then kept racing, and had his pit stop on the last lap to achieve a surprisingly good 4th.

The race was incredibly important for the titles, most especially the Drivers’. After Monza, here are the top 5:
Webber 187
Hamilton 182
Alonso 166
Button 165
Vettel 163

With 25 points for a win, it’s incredibly tight. Webber really is in pole position, as the next 5 tracks are more Red Bull-friendly than Spa and Monza. Hamilton and Webber are a bit ahead of the other three, but it’s too close to call.

For the Constructors’, it’s also very close, but will probably be a Red Bull win, with McLaren the closest challenger:
Red Bull 350
McLaren 347
Ferrari 290

A strange weekend. My pole tip was really off, first time for a while it’s been miles off, and I managed to be ahead on the race. Overall, with laying, a small profit was had. Without laying, it would’ve been red.

There aren’t many races left now, just five (assuming Korea goes ahead). Spa and Monza saw Webber and Hamilton pull ahead, but the other three contenders have cut the gap down again.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

Interesting race - and good calls again.

Had McLaren been a fraction faster (ie as fast as Ferrari) with Button's pitstop, he could well have won the race - though Alonso certainly drove well enough to deserve the win.

After his qualifying mistakes, Hamilton blew it again in the race, and had the grace to admit as much. He really ought to have settle for a certain fourth place (and a possible podium) - it might just cost him the championship.

Can't believe that Hulkenburg didn't get penalised at least once for cutting the chicanes. Webber won't be happy.

Like you, I came out slightly ahead, as I was able to lat Button at decent odds.

As far as the championship is concerned, I think it's probably still Hamilton/Webber, with Webber just about the favourite. Alonso is on his last engine, which along with the points deficit is just too much of a handicap.
I wouldn't entirely rule any of the top five out, though.

Morris Dancer said...

Yeah, bit disappointed to be only mildly up (I should've set up all my laying hedge on Button at evens, rather than having some at 1.5).

However, really pleased to have a green race.

This race was the perfect complement for Spa in terms of setting up the championship.

Anonymous said...

Spot Betting post.

Morris Dancer said...

That's... disturbing.

I have mixed views about the truth of it. It's an accurate prediction, but Hamilton was leading the title race, and he had a good chance to retain (and possibly extend) his lead at Monza.

I do not believe an F1 driver would sacrifice a chance at the title for money, unless he were in dire straits.

However.... I write pre-qualifying and pre-race posts as well as a post-race analysis, each weekend. If you hear anything else of this nature, please do leave a comment.

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