Blimey. I got back to discover not only was I enormously wrong, with Vettel sixth and my lay umatched, the entire top six seemed jumbled up.
Alonso snatched pole, with Button second, then Massa, Webber, Hamilton and Vettel. The top 10 was completed by Rosberg, Hulkenberg, Kubica and Barrichello.
Red Bull must hate Monza, it’s the first grid for ages when they haven’t been on the front row. Staggered Vettel wasn’t closer to pole. Next year, I’ll have to bear this in mind.
For the title race, this is tremendously exciting. The two strongest contenders are 4th and 5th, two slightly adrift are on the front row, with the third adrift fellow sixth. It looks like the race could be pretty tasty.
Caught up with a little of the BBC coverage, and it seems like Button’s gone for downforce over raw straight line speed, which could give him the advantage in breaking zones, for overtaking, and make it easier on his tyres. It certainly proved a better choice than Hamilton’s, which sees the title leader half a second down the road from Button.
The weather’s going to be nice and sunny, so the weather shouldn’t play a part.
I’ve decided to go for a trio of bets this time around. Firstly, I’ve laid Alonso to lead lap 1 at 1.46. I think both Button and Massa will be very keen to get ahead and stand a decent chance.
Secondly, I’ve backed Button for the win at 4.7. He was doing very well at the somewhat similar circuit at Spa, with a broken front wing, before Vettel wrecked his race. He’s got good pace, and lower downforce will make it easier on his tyre and afford him overtaking opportunities.
Lastly, I’ve backed Hamilton for a podium at 1.95. I imagine he’ll ice Webber on lap 1, and stands a decent chance of getting past Massa later on.
Unusually, hedging will be at a minimum. For the first lap leader, it’s not really possible/sensible, and Hamilton’s odds are so short for the podium you’d need to lay at 1.1 or suchlike.
Pretty shocked Vettel was so far down the road in qualifying. Let’s hope Button takes Alonso before the end of lap 1, and the McLarens have a great day out.
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