Saturday, 27 November 2010

2010 season review: tips and bets

In the first half of the season if you backed all my tips and didn’t lay, you’d be a muppet because I say in almost every post bets that can be hedged should be. However, you’d also be down £8.14. I don’t have a figure for the result if you did hedge your bets, but believe you’d be moderately ahead.

The first half of the season also saw a huge divide regarding qualifying and race betting. Namely, I’m alright at qualifying betting but as much use as a condom made of sandpaper when it comes to race day.

More detail is available here, as is a lovely graph:

In the latter half of the season (Silverstone to Abu Dhabi) I kept better records of what happened regarding the bets and what the impact of hedging is. Naturally, hedging does make things a bit fuzzier, as people will hedge at different times with different stakes.

Without hedging, just 3 of the last 10 races ended green. With hedging, this number rises to 5. Hedging improved the result at 5 races, made no difference at 3 (the ones where I couldn’t tip much due to stupid start times or personal business) and worsened the result at 2. At Spa and Monza, hedging turned red results into green ones.

Below is a splendid graph showing the impact of hedging. The blue line is what happened if you put £10 on every tip, and left at it that, the pink line is what happened if put £10 on every tip and (if possible) hedged.

The total affect, from Silverstone to Abu Dhabi, is an improvement of £61, taking a £53 loss and making it into an £8 profit. Now, that’s still a bit rubbish, but it does show just how useful it is to hedge bets.

In F1, fortune can be very capricious. A good example is the Turkish GP, where I got my best result not due to foresight but because Vettel very helpfully collided with Webber. Obviously this works both ways, such as when Alonso failed to get pole at Hockenheim by 0.002s after I’d backed him at 6.8 [and laid at evens to end up all square].

Weather, mechanical failure, being hit by another car and driver error can all ruin a race, and advantage those behind. This is why I think hedging is best, with the odd exception (first lap leader being one).

For the next season, my plan is to offer tips on the main site, and do a post-race analysis for each GP. Depending on how things go, I may revert to the three articles per Grand Prix format.

Going forward, I will probably do a preview of the 2011 season in February, and possibly write a little about the testing in that month. The first race is, sadly, Bahrain from 11-13 March.

So, this is the final 2010 post. On track the season had many ups and downs, as did my tips. Hopefully the next season will see a bit more reliability from me, and a competitive Mercedes joining the Red Bulls, Ferraris and McLarens battling for race wins.

See you then.

Morris Dancer

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