Tuesday, 30 November 2010

For St. Andrews Day: Holyrood 2011 The New Constituencies

Happy St Andrew's Day one and all. As we are only 5 months out from the Holyrood elections, I thought it might help the serious gamblers on PB if I set out the 73 new constituencies and where possible show the relevant 2007 winner and runner-up and my early guess at likely winner in May. The new seat is named first and the old seat in brackets below. In a couple of cases where seats are completely new or go completely there is no comparison.

Some seats have had little or no boundary changes like the 3 island seats while others like the Highland seats, the Aberdeenshire and Angus seats and the Borders seats have seen major changes.

The Weber Shandwick website www.scotlandvotes.com attempts to show what would have happened in 2007 on the new boundaries and for example turns Jim Murphy's East Renfrewshire (Eastwood at Holyrood) into a safeish Tory seat because Labour has lost its heartland of Barrhead from the constituency into a neighbouring already safe Labour Renfrewshire one.

Unless there is a big sea change between now and May, I reckon many of the SNP gains in 2007 on huge swings resulting in tiny majorities, in almost all cases far below the average of 2000 spoilt votes per seat will return to Labour and the LibDems will lose out in places like Dunfermline which swung back so heavily to Labour in May.

New Seat
(Old Seat) 2007 Winner 2007 Runner Up
Nov 2010 Prediction
1.Aberdeen Central
(Aberdeen Central) Lab Hold SNP Lab Gain from SNP
2. Aberdeen Donside
(Aberdeen North) SNP Hold Lab SNP Hold
3. Aberdeen S & N Kincardine
(Aberdeen South) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
4. Aberdeenshire East (Gordon) SNP Gain SLD SNP Hold
5. Aberdeenshire W (Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
6. Airdrie and Shotts (Airdrie and Shotts) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
7. Almond Valley (Livingston) SNP Gain Lab Lab Gain from SNP
8. Angus North and Mearns
(Angus) SNP Hold Con SNP Hold
9. Angus South - - SNP Hold
10. Argyll and Bute (Argyll and Bute) SNP Gain SLD SNP Hold
11. Ayr
(Ayr) Con Hold Lab Con Hold
12. Banffshire and Buchan Coast (Banff and Buchan) SNP Hold Con SNP Hold
13. Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (C, S and ER) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
14. Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley (C, C and D V) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
15.Clackmannanshire and Dunblane (Ochil) SNP Hold Lab SNP Hold
16. Clydebank and Milngavie
(C and M) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
17. Clydesdale (Clydesdale) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
18. Coatbridge and Chryston (C and C) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
19. Cowdenbeath (Dunfermline East) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
20. Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (C and K) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
21. Cunningham N (Cunningham N) SNP Gain Lab Lab Gain from SNP
22. Cunningham S (Cunningham S) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
23. Dumbarton (Dumbarton) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
24. Dumfriesshire (Dumfries) Lab Hold Con Con Hold
25. Dundee City East (Dundee East) SNP Hold Lab SNP Hold
26. Dundee City West (Dundee West) SNP Gain Lab SNP Hold
27. Dunfermline
(Dunfermline West) SLD Gain Lab Lab Gain from SLD
28. East Kilbride
(East Kilbride) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
29. East Lothian
(East Lothian) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
30. Eastwood (Eastwood) Lab Hold Con Con Hold
31. Edinburgh Central (Edinburgh Central) Lab Hold SLD Lab Gain from SLD
32. Edinburgh Eastern (Edinburgh East and Musselburgh) SNP Gain Lab Lab Hold
33. Edinburgh North & Leith (Edinburgh North and Leith) Lab Hold SLD Lab Hold
34. Edinburgh Pentlands (Edinburgh Pentlands) Con Hold Lab Con Hold
35. Edinburgh Southern (Edinburgh South) SLD Hold Lab SLD Hold
36. Edinburgh Western (Edinburgh West) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
37. Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire (R and Berwick) Con Gain SLD Con Hold
38. Falkirk East
(Falkirk East) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
39. Falkirk West (Falkirk West) SNP Gain Lab Lab Gain from SNP
40. Galloway and West Dumfries (Galloway and Upper Nithsdale) Con Hold SNP Con Hold
41. Glasgow Anniesland (Glasgow Anniesland) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
(Glasgow Baillieston) Lab Hold SNP -
42. Glasgow Cathcart (Glasgow Cathcart) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
43. Glasgow Kelvin (Glasgow Kelvin) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
44. Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn (Glasgow Maryhill) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
45. Glasgow Pollok (Glasgow Pollok) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
46. Glasgow Provan (Glasgow Springburn) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
47. Glasgow Shettleston (Glasgow Shettleston) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
48. Glasgow Southside (Glasgow Govan) SNP Gain Lab Lab Hold
49. Greenock and Inverclyde (Greenock and I) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
50. Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (Hamilton South) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
51. Inverness and Nairn (Inverness E, Nairn and Lochaber) SNP Hold SLD SNP Hold
52. Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
(K and Loudoun) SNP Gain Lab Lab Gain from SNP
53. Kirkcaldy (Kirkcaldy) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
54. Linlithgow (Linlithgow) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
55. Mid Fife and Glenrothes
(Fife Central) SNP Gain Lab SNP Hold
56. Midlothian N and Musselburgh (Midlothian) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
57. Midlothian S, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
(T, Ettrick and L) SLD Hold SNP SNP Hold
58. Moray
(Moray) SNP Hold Con SNP Hold
59. Motherwell and Wishaw (Motherwell and Wishaw) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
60. Na h-Eileanan an Iar
(Na h-Eileanan an Iar) SNP Gain Lab SNP Hold
61.North-East Fife (North-East Fife) SLD Hold Con SLD Hold
62. Orkney
(Orkney) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
63. Paisley
(Paisley North) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
64. Perthshire North (Tayside North) SNP Hold Con SNP Hold
65. Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (Perth) SNP Hold Con SNP Hold
66. Renfrewshire North and West (Renfrewshire West) Lab Hold Con Lab Hold
67. Renfrewshire South (Paisley South) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
68. Rutherglen (Glasgow Rutherglen) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold
69. Shetland (Shetland) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
70. Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (Ross, Skye and Inverness West) SLD Hold SNP SLD Hold
71. Stirling
(Stirling) SNP Gain Lab Lab Gain from SNP
72. Strathkelvin and Bearsden (Strathkelvin and B) Lab Gain SNP Lab Hold
73. Uddingston and Bellshill (Hamilton N and Bellshill) Lab Hold SNP Lab Hold


Timothy (likes zebras) said...

Thanks Easterross!

Unfortunately, the formatting makes it very difficult to look at the work you have done. It seems a shame for poor presentation to obscure what has no-doubt been a fair amount of work.

Any chance of you sticking your neck out and making predictions for the regional list vote?

The SNP benefited last time by the Greens and SSP falling back, if I remember correctly.

Easterross said...

Timothy, I will make a guess some time over the holiday period when I have a chance to work out what the likely FPTP effect on the top-up seats might have. I would be surprised if the SSP wins any seats but the Greens might pick up a couple from disenchanted LibDems.

Marcia said...

Mark, I see you have SNP to hold both Dundee seats and I agree on that. What will determine the outcome in a few seats will be differential turnout amonst the political groupings. SNP voters are more enthusiastic about Holyrood elections, Labour less so and in this grouping some always vote for Westminster and sit out Holyrood. Some SNP voters will not vote for Westminster. It would be interesting if someone could do some academic research on this.

One anecdote for you. I was speaking to a couple recently after being away for a few months, they live in Dundee West and asked if I was still active in politics, told them no I have retired. They told me that in the May GE at the last minute they voted Labour to keep the Tories out at UK level. When I asked if they would be voting Labour in 2011, they said no, it will be SNP, 'to keep Labour out'. They don't want higher council tax and other taxes.

Funny old world. Back to lurking.

Easterross said...

Marcia, I reckon that Joe will hold Dundee West because he is Joe and having known him in his Inverness days, I am sure he goes down well with his constituents. It is the seats like Cunningham North where the SNP had a tiny majority and there were over 1000 spoilt votes that I think the party will struggle to hold.

Marcia said...

What we don't know at this stage is what personal vote any of the MSP's elected in 2007 have cultivated. Cunninghame North has Kenny Gibson who cultivated a good personal vote in his old Glasgow council seat that he vacated for Holyrood. I hear he is well liked in the seat.

Richard Nabavi said...

Thanks, Easterross. This is going to be a very useful resource, and kudos to you for putting your neck on the line in such detail!

JPJ2 said...

On Cunningham North I expect the SNP to hold. Kenny Gibson had the biggest majority in Scotland as an SNP councillor for Mosspark (not regarded as particularly fruitful territory for the SNP before his election). He generates a strong personal vote.

His victory in 2007 was stunning, particularly as the SNP vote was effectively split as a previous SNP list MSP (he had resigned from the SNP during his term of office) stood and polled a decent vote in the constituency.

Fitalass said...

Thanks very much for this article Easterross.

Easterross said...

JPJ2 I thought John Mason had the largest individual majority on Glasgow Council but sadly jis undoubted popularity didnt prevent the somewhat annoying Labour woman hammer him at the General Election. I would like Gibson to survive but cannot see him bucking what I suspect will be a solid trend.

JPJ2 said...

For clarification for Easterross.

Kenny Gibson was an SNP councillor
in Glasgow in the 1990s and did indeed have at one point the largest majority of any councillor in Scotland (this does not contradict what you say about John Mason).

Unusually he was succeeded in that position by his mother when he was elected to Holyrood in 1999 on the list in Glasgow.

Having lost his MSP position via the list on the decline of the SNP in 2003 it seems reasonable to conclude that he moved elsewhere to ensure that his personal effors at constituency level would stand more chance of being rewarded.

You are underestimating the significance of at least two points:

*Campbell Martin (former SNP list turned independent) polled over 4thousand votes in Cunninghame North in 2007

* Kenny Gibson's wife enjoyed an untypically substantial swing to the SNP in the 2010 general election, indicating to me the building of significant personal support for Gibson.