We're exactly halfway through the season, with 10 races come
and gone and 10 races ahead. Part 1 of the review will mostly look back at
what's already happened, and consider how well or badly the betting's gone.
At the start of the season it was quite clear. McLaren had
the best car in qualifying and in the race. Red Bull were second, Ferrari had a
dog and Lotus and Sauber were more competitive than expected.
But this did not last very long. Possibly due to their
atypical solution to the rule changes (having a pretty nose rather than a kinky
one) McLaren have not done so well in developing their car as might be
expected. Red Bull have done well and improved an already good car, but Ferrari
have done the best job. Their car at the start of the season was barely a
midfield competitor but now, whilst perhaps not quite as swift as the Red Bull
and maybe the McLaren, it can at least compete at the sharp end. It's also
tasty in all conditions, unlike the McLaren which hates very wet conditions.
Sauber, Lotus, Mercedes and Williams are all still doing
fairly well, the first two teams especially. Mercedes seem to be a little
further back, doing well in qualifying but struggling to maintain that in the
race (the anti-Sauber, if you like).
Anyway, to the betting.
Perhaps surprisingly the Perez tip in Germany
was the first winning race tip (without hedging) since Monaco
in May. It's also rather counter-intuitive, but true, that the vast majority of
profitability for the bet-and-forget numbers comes from qualifying (race bets
are green but modestly so). I've only offered qualifying tips at five out of
the 10 races to date (this is generally due to P3 being at 2am for Far Eastern
races, or if it's very soggy in P3 and qualifying's expected to be dry).
There's a more or less even split of profit between
qualifying and race bets for the hedged style of betting. Hedging has been
better than not at four races, and less profitable at two. Overall it's better
by a clear margin.
Last year, pretty much throughout the season, not hedging
was more profitable. That was because, bluntly, I was getting more things
right. This year I'm getting some things right but also getting quite a lot of
things nearly right, leading to hedges getting matched.
Despite this, and some recent good results in Europe
and Germany,
I'm still somewhat tentative about betting. The topsy-turvy nature of the
season and some recent wet weather has kept me a bit cautious. I think that's a
good thing, and hopefully it will keep me on my toes.
I've continued my bad habit of starting a season rubbishly,
as the graph clearly shows. However, there's also a general upward trend, which
is nice, and I haven't had too many losses since the first part of the season.
Specific markets:
I think that the Q3 market (to reach it and be top 10 prior
to penalties) is one of the most interesting. Grosjean was far too short in Germany,
and Alonso likewise in Europe.
It's also worth noting that recently big names have even
struggled to escape Q1 as they try and make it on prime tyres (Webber,
Schumacher and Button have all either exited or nearly exited at that stage
recently).
Generally speaking the chap on pole has gone on to win
(Alonso is a double exception to this, in both ways, and Hamilton has also
failed to convert his poles to wins yet won from further back in Canada).
Further down there has been a lot of churning in the order
from grid to flag. I mentioned Sauber further up. They've been qualifying
poorly lately, but they've had good race pace. Mercedes are somewhat the
opposite. Podium and Top 6 markets have potential, and I quite like them.
I think hedging generally makes sense. As well as being
cautious by nature anyway, F1 (especially this year) is especially prone to
sudden changes in fortune.
Regarding the titles, my bet on Lotus to get the
Constructors' now looks as silly as a morris dancer without a wiffle stick but
the Drivers' is looking a little better. For modest sums I'm ahead if Alonso or
any Red Bull/McLaren driver wins.
Given the unpredictable nature of the sport this year I'm
reasonably satisfied with the season to date. Whether the latter half is
better, worse, or broadly the same remains to be seen.
The next race:
Looking ahead to Hungary,
which is this weekend, No Safety Car (assuming there's no rain) is a likely
bet. The circuit has the lowest incidence of safety cars on the calendar. I
remember reading that the track's all about front-end grip, so this may
especially help Mercedes and Lotus (assuming the latter's updated DRS system
works) in qualifying.
I'd also guess, based on the Germany
race, that McLaren will be very competitive and Hamilton
might well nab pole. If it's dry, I'd be surprised if Alonso got another pole.
From Hungary
(inclusive) I'll be adding a green line to the graph. This green line will be
based upon the tips offered in the comments (usually by Mr. Putney and Mr.
Nigel, but it's entirely open to others as well). I'll just take a note of the
bet, the odds and whether it's with Betfair or not (to account for the 5%
commission). I'm not going to take hedged bets, because I think four lines
would be a bit excessive.
Obviously most bets are for races or qualifying but if title
bets are suggested I'll take a note of those as well. As with my own tips, I'll
assume a standard stake of £10.
Morris Dancer
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