Saturday, 28 July 2012

Hungary: pre-qualifying

And so we move to the eleventh of twenty races, and the last before a long break to Spa.

The soft and medium (same as in Germany) tyres have been brought to the race, but it's expected to be much hotter. The circuit isn't used much the rest of the year so takes a while to rubber in, meaning that the P1 times are not that representative of true pace.

P1 was McLarentastic and had Hamilton lead Button at the sharp end. They were followed by Alonso, then Rosberg, Grosjean and Schumacher. Massa was seventh, and Raikkonen, Bottas (Williams test driver) and Perez rounded out the top 10.

P2 started off dry but then the rain tipped down and caught out a few drivers. Hamilton was again fastest and was followed by Raikkonen, Senna and Massa. Alonso was not faster than Massa (as he was fifth), and Button, Di Resta, Vettel, Grosjean and Schumacher (who crashed after aquaplaning in the wet) finish off the top 10.

P3 was also dry. Webber was fastest, then Hamilton and Vettel, followed by Senna, Alonso and Raikkonen. Grosjean, Massa, Di Resta and Maldonado finish the top 10.

Qualifying is forecast to be dry (the race may not be). There were a wide array of bets on all three main qualifying markets (fastest, to reach Q3 and to be top 3) I looked at. However, for most there was not enough liquidity and/or the odds were displeasing.

In the end I backed a single bet: Hamilton to be fastest in Q3 at 2.96 (hedged at 1.4). Whilst not quite fastest in P3 he was in P1 and P2 and would have been faster in P3 but for a mistake. So, the driver and car have the pace, and I think he'll be brimming with confidence after seeing the car's fresh potential in Hockenheim.

Remember: if you want to offer tips in the comments I'll add these to my records and see how they do compared to my own. [Obviously offering tips is not necessary to post comments and if you want to opt-out just say so and I won't record them]. Please remember to indicate not just the bet but whether it's with Betfair or not so that I know whether to subtract 5% from any profits.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

I agree with your Hamilton pick (and backed him myself) - but I also put a couple of pounds on Webber at 30/1 on Betfair for the qualifying-winner double.
Probably won't come off, but the odds seemed overly generous, and I think the new throttle rules probably benefit him a bit in the intra-team battle with Vettel.

Of course now we'll have a surprise shower ahead of Q3 and Alonso will sneak pole again.

Interesting scuttlebut about the Red Bull suspension adjustment (allegedly they've been told to disable the system which allows mechanics to alter ride height by hand, without tools).
Naturally, no one is accusing them of abusing this to get around the park ferme rules or anything....

Nigel said...

Temp. around 6 degrees warmer than in P3.
Might be a factor ?

Morris Dancer said...

Must admit I considered backing Webber for the pole.

I'd be slightly surprised if Alonso got another pole.

I did look at backing Senna to reach Q3 but there was sod all available and the odds weren't great either.

Cheers for the interesting bit on Red Bull. That might affect my betting for the race.

Morris Dancer said...

Oh, and thanks for the first ever green line tip :)

That said, if it comes off you'll've annihilated my results to date.

Nigel said...

"I'd be slightly surprised if Alonso got another pole."

Me too.

Nigel said...

Hamilton looks good value at 8.2 on Betfair for the championship ?

Morris Dancer said...


I have seen that, but the problem is the 62 point gap to Alonso. Even with a perfect result for him there's still a sizeable gap and Red Bull and Alonso won't make it easy for McLaren.

I think I might put a little on it, but given I'm already green on Hamilton I'm fairly comfortable with things as they are.

Nigel said...

So much for Webber - there goes two quid. :-)

Well green assuming Hamilton takes P1, though.

Nigel said...

"problem is the 62 point gap to Alonso. Even with a perfect result for him there's still a sizeable gap and Red Bull and Alonso won't make it easy for McLaren."

It won't be easy, but I think the odds might be worth at least a trading bet.
Of course, it could still be wet tomorrow...

Morris Dancer said...

The McLaren's like the Wicked Witch of the West: water (and occasionally buggering up pit stops/strategy) is it's only weakness.

I've done the qualifying writeup, but not really got a bet in mind yet, so it'll probably be a little while before I put it up.

Quite glad/relieved Hamilton got pole.