Saturday, 25 May 2013

Monaco: pre-qualifying

Gary Anderson said during practice that the tyre woe for Mercedes could disappear in Monaco. In P1 Red Bull were locking their brakes up easily.

P1 had Rosberg fastest, followed closely by Alonso and then Grosjean, Massa, Hamilton, Maldonado, Webber, Button, Perez and Vettel.

In P2 the Silver Arrows did even better, with Rosberg top, then Hamilton (three-tenths down the road), Alonso, Massa, Webber, Raikkonen, Grosjean, Button, Vettel and Di Resta.

However, Grosjean did have a crash in P2, and will be glad that in Monaco Fridays are a free day (the above sessions occur on Thursday), giving more time to mend the car.

At this stage I’m thinking of splitting a pole bet between Rosberg and Hamilton. The Ferraris also look good. Vettel seems quite unhappy with his pace and was 0.3s and 0.6s off of his team mate (in one session he lacked KERS, however). If he does badly (without traffic) in P3 there’s the off-chance of laying him for Q3, but that’s unlikely (although worth keeping an eye on because the odds would be tasty).

Aerodynamics matter less in Monaco, so this may help McLaren. They won’t be competing for pole, but they should be better than usual.

There’s a small chance (30%) of very light rain in qualifying. It shouldn’t disrupt things much, if it arrives at all.

In P3 Vettel had to abort his fastest lap. It’s unlikely it would’ve beaten Rosberg, but it probably would’ve been fast (a second Grosjean crash produced a late red flag preventing Vettel having another crack at it). The red flag means we don’t have an absolutely accurate picture for qualifying. However, the standings were Rosberg, Grosjean, Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Webber, Di Resta, Maldonado, and Hulkenberg.

I’ve backed Rosberg for pole at 1.95, no hedge. He was fastest in every practice session and often by a significant margin. Vettel may challenge, but I don’t think he would’ve been fast enough in P3. Things can always change in Monaco, but unless there’s an accident or another out of the blue event I think he’s very likely to get another pole position.

Morris Dancer


Graham said...

And then it started raining!

Morris Dancer said...

Just tuned in and at the time Rosberg, both Ferraris and Grosjean were in the drop zone.

Qualifying could be unexpectedly interesting.

Morris Dancer said...

Ha, really surprised Rosberg ended up getting pole given the weather.

I have some gardening to do, and will try to get the pre-race piece up by the late afternoon/early evening.

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Nigel said...

Well done !

Too busy earlier this week to get around to betting (which is a bit annoying, as I would otherwise have been on those longer Mercedes odds before practice).

Interesting just how much slower Hamilton looks to have been throughout practice and qualifying (though he got within a tenth or Rosberg at the death - the only time this week he's been anywhere near that close).

He can't be entirely happy with the car/tyre setup, because there is no way he is so much slower than Rosberg, ceteris paribus.
Will he therefore play the team game and hold up the field for Rosberg in the race ?

Peter said...

Great call Morris!

Bang goes my hat trick bet on Vettel.

Morris Dancer said...

Thanks. I dislike short odds but it seemed worth it. When I heard it was raining I felt he'd miss out almost certainly, so it felt like a fluke when he got pole.

Trying to find a bet for the race, but nothing's leaping out at me.

Rather wish I'd put more than peanuts on the early bets, but betting's always easier with hindsight.

Peter said...

Yes, hindsight is indeed a wonderful thing .... as my old boss used to say, it's worth all of 10 pence a bucket.

Interesting to see Perez again griding ahead of Button who all of a sudden looks to be the one in a spot of trouble, while Perez starting in 7th place, looks good value to land my bet on him finishing in the points.

How come the BBC gave away the Monaco GP to Sky? Truly pathetic.

Morris Dancer said...

Monaco's arguably the worst circuit on the calendar. The 9 BBC live races this year are far better than the 10 last year.

Apparently Button had a power issue for his second run in Q3. Nice for Perez, though.

Apologies for the prolonged prevarication. I just think it'll be a procession, which makes finding a bet with odds longer than Stumpy McNolegs very hard. Tempted by Raikkonen to win at 17.5, but decided against it.