Pirelli are to change their tyre compounds for Canada, which is the race after Monaco: http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/108038.html
Now, the difference to the pecking order obviously depends on how big the change is, but here’s how I see it playing out:
Winners - Red Bull, Mercedes
Losers - Lotus, Ferrari
If I’m right and Pirelli overcook the changes we could see a very tight, interesting title race devolve into a Red Bull procession. I really hope that doesn’t happen, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
During the Spain-Monaco interval I backed Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 1.9, because I was green for Ferrari and Lotus and wanted to cover that possibility. I also put small sums (NB this is not a tip) on Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco.
Although 4 stops in Spain was excessive it’s worth pointing out that every team has the same tyres and if Lotus have made theirs work very well then fiddling with the compounds now is unfairly penalising them. For all Red Bull’s bleating they are leading both title races.
As Gary Anderson wrote: “In 2011, Vettel won the Spanish Grand Prix. He also made four pit stops and there were 77 pit stops in the entire race. There were no complaints from Red Bull then.”
However, since then the FIA has stated that changes to the tyres can only occur to help safety (in this case reducing the risk of the dramatic delamination a few drivers have seen). So, with luck, this will minimise the impact upon the pecking order.
It’s also been announced that in 2015 McLaren will switch to Honda engines: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204
Many BBC chaps reckoned that Mercedes could be the team to watch in Monaco, as the third sector of Spain is apparently a very good guide to Monaco pace and the Silver Arrows were fastest in that sector.
Your thoughts, tips and insights are all welcome in the comments below. (NB P1 and P2 are on Thursday rather than Friday, as is the norm for Monaco).