Bahrain: early discussion

Yes, the Chinese Grand Prix was only yesterday but Bahrain is only a few days away, so the discussion starts now. After Bahrain there's a bit of a break to the European season, and in that gap I'll write a brief review of the season so far (as usual).

For what it's worth, here's my approximate running order for the teams:

Qualifying:

Mercedes-Red Bull

Ferrari

Lotus

Race:

Ferrari

Red Bull-Lotus

Mercedes

However, it's fair to say it's very tight, and that I could've written 'Raikkonen' instead of 'Lotus'. Grosjean needs to hurry up.

Bahrain is amongst the most boring of circuits and, without checking, I think it might've been the only race last year that was properly tedious. Cars tend to get spaced out very quickly, probably due to bad circuit design, and overtaking is harder than a man trapped in a lift with the Promiscuous Liaison Committee of the Swedish Nymphomaniac Association.

Historically it's been good for Ferrari (Massa especially) although recently, possibly due to the Prancing Horse being a bit lame, this has not been quite the case. They have a better car now, though. Upgrades will be minimal from China so pace should be the same, but the circuit works the rears more than the front tyres, the opposite of Shanghai (which is peculiar in this regard).

Anyway, time for me to stop rambling. Comments, insights, tips and guessing how Webber's car will mysteriously fail to finish the race are all welcome.

Morris Dancer

China: post-race analysis

A great race to watch, but the betting did not go so well. In short, my judgement was entirely wrong and the hedge didn't get matched. It was a tricky call, but I clearly leapt the wrong way.

Raikkonen had a shocker of a start and the two Ferraris had a flyer, as is so often the case. Webber started from the pits with brand new soft tyres.

The varying strategies makes it hard to give a proper chronological account of the race, but I'll try to cover the major points.

Hamilton looked off the pace, a little, at the start. He couldn't break away from Alonso (then second, with Massa third) and both Ferraris passed him at one corner. After the first stops of the soft chaps Hulkenberg led (annoyingly, this may've prevented the Vettel hedge getting matched) with Vettel second and Button third.

Alonso pitted before Massa, but when the Brazilian came out of the pits he was well down the field and, although he recovered somewhat, that did mark the end of his challenge for a podium.

Rosberg had a dire day. He fell down the order early on and then had some sort of mechanical issue and had to retire. Just as bad was Webber. He made good progress early on with his new soft tyres, but after a pit stop either something broke or a tyre was incorrectly attached. He was slowly returning to the pits when a rear tyre broke free and rolled across the track, right in front of Vettel.

To add insult to injury, Webber has a 3 place grid penalty for Bahrain due to a failed pass attempt on Vergne which resulted in a collision. It was perhaps a shade clumsy but I felt it was a racing incident.

Sutil also retired after he was taken roughly from behind by Gutierrez, whose approach to cornering speed at the hairpin can be most positively described as creatively optimistic.

Meanwhile at the front (in real terms if not track position) Alonso was flying, and a mile ahead of everybody else. He was told not to push after setting two or three fastest laps in a row, and reported back that he wasn't, which shows just how good the Ferrari was. Important to remember that China is all about wear on the front tyres. Maybe this will bode well for Hungary which is a circuit dominated by front end grip.

Behind Hamilton and Raikkonen were tussling for second and third, with the Finn ahead in the closing stages. Vettel was second on track but had to pit late on for the soft tyre. The last few laps were very exciting as he rapidly closed by 3-4s a lap on Hamilton, but just didn't make it by two-tenths on the line.

In the end, Button was fifth. That's pretty good considering the relative pace, of lack thereof, of the McLaren to the other top teams. In addition it's worth pointing out that Button went for 2 stops, whereas Vettel (just ahead) and Hulkenberg (tenth) went for 3. Hard to say which strategy was better in the end. It may be that Button's driving style and/or the degradation on the Red Bull dictated the strategy.

Massa got sixth, which is ok but no more than that, and Ricciardo should be very happy with seventh. Di Resta got a solid eighth, with Grosjean ninth and Hulkenberg tenth.

Hulkenberg may be a bit disappointed given he was running with Vettel for much of the race. This season Grosjean has had quieter starts, but also quieter races. He seems to have lost some pace, although that could be down to the new car/tyres.

After three races here are the standings:

Vettel 52

Raikkonen 49

Alonso 43

Hamilton 40

Massa 30

Webber 26

Given Alonso had a DNF in Malaysia he'll be very happy to be just nine points off the lead. I suspect the top three, possibly with Hamilton as well, will end up fighting for the title again.

Constructors:

Red Bull 78

Ferrari 73

Lotus 60

Mercedes 52

Because the Mercedes is perhaps half a step back on pace and Grosjean is a bit slow so far I suspect the title will be down to Red Bull and Ferrari, with Lotus and Mercedes battling for three and four. Personally, I'd be inclined to back Ferrari over Red Bull. The cars are comparable in terms of pace, but I think the two Ferrari drivers are working well and working together.

I'm a bit disappointed that my judgement was entirely wrong, but betting's very black and white, so at least I don't lose double my stake for being enormously incorrect. After a good start (with an uncharacteristic pre-qualifying race tip) the season has returned to the slightly dodgy tradition with which I tend to start F1 betting. However, I do think I've got a better handle on where the teams stack up, and there's unlikely to be such a vast yawning chasm between the two compounds in Bahrain, which should make the race, hopefully, easier to forecast.

Incidentally, half the field (about 6 cars) are under investigation for passing under yellow flags, which waved for a few laps near the hairpin at the end of the long straight. This includes both Red Bulls. Not sure of the penalty, if there is one, but a grid penalty or time added to the China result seem likeliest.

Bahrain is just next week, and as P3 ends at 10am I'm hoping to have a qualifying tip as well as one (or more) for the race.

Morris Dancer

China: pre-race

That must be one of the most boring qualifying sessions in recent years. On the betting side, I'm glad Massa was eminently hedgeable before the session because I doubt he would've been during it. I also wish I'd hedged a bit more to be green either way, but that's something to remember for next time.

Q1 saw the entire pit lane fall asleep. After about half the time was over they came out and we had 10 minutes of the usual business, with the pointless teams being joined, again, by Bottas and Gutierrez. Excepting Bianchi, the rookies do not seem to be shining this year.

Q2 was a bit more surprising as it saw both Force Indias jettisoned. Perez could only manage 12th (behind Di Resta and ahead of Sutil) with Maldonado and Vergne bottom of the timesheet. Fourteenth was occupied by Webber, as he suffered a dastardly fuel problem. It's not entirely clear what the situation is at the time of writing, but I'd expected him to be put to the back of the grid.

Q3 even managed to be dull. Nobody came out for the first half, although there was some interest when three drivers (Button, Vettel and Hulkenberg, who did well to make the last session) decided to go out on the medium tyre. Hamilton got a great pole, and Raikkonen claimed 2nd after flying in under the radar. Alonso could only manage 3rd, but he may well be happy with that given he beat Massa for the first time in five qualifying sessions. Rosberg, who missed out on some setup time due to a P3 problem was 4th then came Massa, Grosjean and Ricciardo, who did very well to reach the session at all. Button came 8th because he was the only chap who went out on the medium tyre and set a time (a comedy time 31 seconds off the pace, but still), whereas Vettel and Hulkenberg trundled around and didn't bother setting a lap time.

There's a huge divergence between the tyres despite them being adjacent in the quartet of Pirelli's dry range. The soft is crumbly like cheese and will not be the tyre of choice in the race. The medium is a bit slower but surprisingly durable.

The race is expected to be dry, so those starting on softs will probably pit pronto and those who opted for medium will probably try and leave the soft tyre until the very last laps. The Force Indias and Perez will lose, to a degree at least, the usual bonus of being top of the Q2 departure list because the three chaps ahead of them will start on the medium tyre (as Vettel and Hulkenberg did not set a time they could go for the soft tyre initially, but that would be rather a surprise).

Ferrari, and Massa in particular, seemed to be better on the soft tyres with high fuel in P2 than anyone else. This will help, but medium tyre pace and wear will matter more. That was pretty close amongst all the top teams although Ferrari seemed a bit off the pace. Mercedes had very bad soft tyre wear in P2, no idea if they managed to fix it later (they were good on the medium tyre, in terms of pace, however).

Interestingly, if you believe that starting on the medium gives a serious advantage, that would make McLaren and Force India contenders to top score, although Button sounded very downbeat (0.8s off the pace on medium) after qualifying. If it turns out that grid position matters more then Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari are set fair.

The race will be 56 laps, I think, with 4-10 laps expected for the first stint on softs with the medium expected to be good for circa 20 laps. So, a two-stopper seems on the cards, regardless of starting tyre, although three or four are possible.

Webber starts from the back after being penalised for lack of fuel. This does not mean he's out of the running even for a podium, although obviously it's a big setback.

I was thinking about looking at McLaren to top score or for Button to get a podium, but he sounded very downbeat during his post-qualifying interview (I missed the last 20 minutes and just caught it on the iPlayer). 0.8s off the pace on medium tyres is significant, although if he can be kinder to the tyres and make one fewer stop then that'd make up for it.

Apologies for the forthcoming ramble. I'm hoping it'll help me decide what to bet on.

The race, as is often the case, is very hard to call but we should have a clear(ish) idea of how it'll go initially. After the start the top 7 (all on the soft tyres with which they qualified) will pit fairly shortly (Horner estimated 4-10 laps). This will automatically mean that those from 8th and down (Button, Vettel, Hulkenberg et al.) will be in the lead. Now, the soft tyre is reputedly a second a lap faster, but degrades at about half a second a lap. This varies a bit and Massa was impressive on soft tyres in P2 but the broad picture is accurate. So, after 4-10 laps the top 7 on the grid will probably pit and come out into traffic (I imagine almost everyone 8 and lower will start on the medium tyre). Not sure how long a pit stop takes in China but about 18s give or take seems reasonable.

So, the traffic and potentially one fewer pit stop should give the medium-starters a strategic advantage. Weighed against that is the possible pace advantage of the Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari.

After the first stops of the softs we should expected Vettel, Button, Hulkenberg etc to lead the race for a few laps whilst they stay out and take advantage of their durable rubber.

It's very tough to try and call whether the top 3 on the grid stand a better chance of victory than the highest-placed medium tyre drivers. I've decided (after prolonged contemplation) to go for Vettel for the win at 7, with a hedge set up at 2.5.

There's the 50/50 possibility that the medium-starters will have a pit stop in hand or just benefit from the soft tyre being used last (when fuel loads are light and degradation is a little less), and I think it's reasonably likely that he'll either be leading or in the top 3 after the initial stops of those who begin on the soft tyre, which will hopefully see the hedge matched.

Hamilton made a slight jibe about Vettel being a lucky driver. Let's hope that's true.

Morris Dancer

China: pre-qualifying

As suggested in the comments (by Mr. Nigel, I think) Massa did indeed prove to be faster in practice than the markets suspected. More on that below.

The weather for both sessions was entirely dry, and is expected to remain so for the entire weekend.

In P1 Rosberg led Hamilton, and then Webber led Vettel. Alonso was fifth, followed by Button, Massa, Sutil, Grosjean and Di Resta.

In P2 Massa was fastest, followed by Raikkonen and Alonso. Rosberg, Webber and Button were next, followed by Hamilton, Sutil, Di Resta and Vettel.

So, the Force Indias seem to have kept their good pace, although we'll have to wait and see how their pit stops go.

The tyres are soft and medium. There's a pretty substantial pace difference so, at the sharp end, qualifying will be on the softs. However, the medium tyre lasts far better, so 2 stops seem possible. Starting 11th or 12th the drivers may be tempted by going for a long medium stint. The potential problem is that they'll be slower, get passed and end up not making much headway. On the other hand, they'll have perhaps a pit stop in hand, which is a big advantage.

I caught the back end of P2 and it seems that the Ferraris are perhaps best in terms of outright pace. However, because medium tyre pace is pretty close between all the top teams this means that there could be an extra premium on qualifying and the start. Mercedes also look good, with Rosberg ahead of Hamilton in both sessions to date.

However, it would be foolish to write off Vettel's prospects (although Webber could be in with a chance of pole). It's interesting that at Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull the driver who has not won a championship is putting in better times than the one who has (although Alonso was faster than Massa in P1).

At the moment I suspect Massa, Vettel, Webber and Rosberg are the prime contenders for pole.

McLaren's looking alright on the longer runs but it's qualifying pace is not looking quite so good.

No tip for qualifying, as P3 is 4am to 5am and qualifying itself starts at 7am.

Massa may actually have a shot at the win, if he qualifies well and Alonso's a bit further back the team can hardly afford to tell him to back off. He was something like 38 for the win and 32 for pole. I put on a tiny sum for the pole and am looking to hedge before P3 (probably do it so that I'm evens for any other winner and ahead for Massa).

Good to see the pb2 early discussion thread yielding a couple of good trading bets.

Morris Dancer

China: early discussion

Well, it's three weeks from Malaysia to the next race (this weekend), but I'd be surprised if Webber's best friends forever with Vettel. Given Red Bull appear to be offering no punishment at all Horner looks pretty weak. Even Schumacher obeyed team orders on the rare occasions they were against him (I believe he did this the year he broke his leg and Irvine was Ferrari's hope for the title).

In other news, Claire Williams has been appointed deputy team principal and heir apparent to her father, Sir Frank. However, from what I've read this is not a pat on the head sort of appointment, and she really deserves it. So, in a few years (assuming Kaltenborn still leads Sauber) we could have two female team principals.

Early forecasts all point to the race being dry.

Speculation, opinions, predictions and the like all welcome in the comments. [NB I've been unable to get confirmation, despite asking a few times, that the threads are being monitored by a moderator, although last time round the spam was pleasingly axed pretty quickly].

Morris Dancer

Malaysia: post-race analysis

Another exciting race, from the sounds of it, but the bet didn't come off. Massa had a poor start, went backwards rapidly and never really seemed in a position to get a podium. So, a significant misjudgement on my part. However, given that my seasons typically start with a sequence of red races, one green and one red isn't too bad.

The race itself was odd. In fact, I think we learnt a lot about relative pace but the final result didn't necessarily bear too close a relationship to that.

It was wet on part of the track at the start so everyone began on intermediates. Alonso tagged Vettel early on, broke one of the Ferrari's two nose-struts and opted not to pit (still too wet for a tyre change so he wanted to eke out a few laps). His nose ended up snapped and he beached the car in gravel shortly after declining to enter the pits.

Massa, annoyingly, had a very bad first few laps and went inexorably backwards. Raikkonen also fell to 13th, but Button had a better start.

The Mercedes were fast. They ended up 3rd and 4th, but that was at least partly because Hamilton was under-fuelled (the team may've expected more rain and possible safety car appearances) and had to drive carefully to the end and Rosberg, despite appeals on the radio, was told to hold station in 4th (this was near the end of the race). At stages Hamilton seemed like he'd be fast enough to take second (from Vettel, at the time) and Rosberg also had good pace.

The Ferraris are hard to assess as Alonso exited early and Massa never seemed up to the pace of the front-runners. It may simply be that the car didn't like the half-wet, half-dry conditions of the first few laps and that losing so many places (and with only one dry line initially) made it hard for the Brazilian to recover.

Sauber had a nice racy day. Hulkenberg was impressive, particularly when the track was in its awkward half-wet, half-dry phase. He ended up in 8th, and drove well. Gutierrez was 12th, which is ok for a rookie in his second race.

Force India seem to have taken to copying McLaren from last season. Good pace from their cars but two weird pit stops took ages (one per car). Each was subsequently retired, perhaps because the long stops had damaged them (could be an issue with the single wheel nut. If that fails then the car becomes a three-wheeler and it's safer to just retire it). Strong pace, good drivers, no points.

Lotus had a steady rather than spectacular race. Grosjean and Raikkonen made progress, but it was slow, and 6th and 7th (the Frenchman leading) is alright but no more than that. It may be that being soft on the tyres in the dry means they struggle to get heat into them when it's slippery.

McLaren had a bad points result (Perez got 2 for being 9th) but their performance was actually better than that. Button was in 5th, on pace, and would've almost certainly kept that had he not had a pit stop problem (the team only fit 3 wheels). He stopped in the lane, got pushed back and the 4th added, but a minute was lost and the car was later retired (probably so they can fiddle with bits for the next race without paying a penalty). However, make no mistake, the car was off the pace of the front-runners but still significantly improved from Australia. With 3 weeks to the next race there's every chance they'll close the gap a little more.

Of the other teams, Ricciardo was near and in the points for much of the race but retired, and Bianchi continues to impress in the Marussia. So much so there's talk of Kovalainen being re-employed as a driver by Caterham, who are worried they'll lose the estimated £30m for 10th in the Constructors' to their Marussia rivals.

However, the story of the day was Red Bull. Fastest at the front and only occasionally troubled by Hamilton's Mercedes, Vettel was told to stay behind Webber. He didn't, there was much tussling and eventually he got ahead and stayed there. I think Webber had been told (whilst leading) to turn the engine down and that Vettel would stay second. Not a happy camp, despite a 1-2 finish.

Not seen the highlights at the time of writing, but apparently the driver reactions were:

Vettel - bit ashamed of himself

Webber - pissed

Hamilton - bit embarrassed, felt Rosberg should've had the podium

Here's the Drivers' standings after 2/19 rounds:

Vettel 40

Raikkonen 31

Webber 26

Hamilton 25

Massa 22

Alonso 18

Constructors':

Red Bull 66

Lotus 40

Ferrari 40

Mercedes 37

So, it's very tight, especially for second in the Constructors'. I hope it's bone dry in China so we can get an even better handle on who's where in terms of pace. With luck, I'll also have moderator powers then so I can axe any spam comments.

We visit China in 3 weeks.

Morris Dancer

Malaysia: pre-race

Qualifying was interesting, as the first session and a half was dry, and the latter was wet. Not torrential, but wet enough for intermediates.

Q1 saw the pointless teams depart, although Bianchi seems to really be punching above his weight with the Marussia's times. Bottas and Vergne also left the show at this point.

Q2 began dry and then became wet. Di Resta's team decided against an early banker, and lived to regret it as he lacked the dry track time to make it into the top 10. McLaren were delighted to get both cars into the last session, and Lotus were disappointed Grosjean only managed 11th. There's no tactical advantage to that in the race as Q3 was also wet so every car on the grid can pick and choose their tyres for tomorrow. The Saubers, Maldonado and Ricciardo also failed to reach the top 10.

Q3 was entirely wet, so we got a decent look at the pace on inters. Vettel remained tediously competent and got pole, with Massa again out-qualifying his team mate for the Ferraris to start right behind the German. Hamilton will be happy in 4th, but Webber probably won't be chuffed with 5th, and he starts alongside Rosberg. Raikkonen was slower than expected in 7th (although that's where he started from last week), and is followed by Button, Sutil and Perez.

After the session Raikkonen was given a 3 place grid penalty (so starting 10th) for impeding another driver in qualifying.

Rain is hard to call, but I think it's probably odds-on tomorrow. However, it looks like being wet but not torrential, as per today. If that's the case then the pace in Q3 should provide an approximate guide to race pace when it turns soggy (the track was constantly drying which led to artificially enormous gaps in the times).

Took me a while to come up with something, and ended up backing Massa at 2.64 for a podium. I've set up a hedge at 1.3. The Ferrari looks good wet and dry, and Massa's been driving well. Off the line team orders can't work (if he went slowly to let Alonso past he'd be swamped by a dozen other cars) so that shouldn't be an issue.

So, let's hope Ferrari's form continues.

Morris Dancer