A mixed bag regarding my tips, but overall good. Raikonnen just about managed to beat Fisichella, who did a hell of a lot better than I ever would’ve predicted. Hamilton, alas, had an argument with a wall (admittedly not really his fault). So with equal stakes on each tip about 150% profit should’ve been had (with no laying, which I did quite a bit).
Fisichella really pushed Raikonnen all the way and it’s a phenomenal result for Force India. Vettel did pretty well to climb from 8th to 3rd, Webber again finished poorly, and Button showed us all what a lucky sod he is.
Despite having his worst result (0 points at all due to a first lap entanglement with Grosjean) Jenson [Saxon for ‘luckiest driver in the universe’] had his title lead cut from 18 to 16, keeping him in a strong position with only five races left to go.
However, almost all the fat has been cut from the lead he has, and if any of the other three contenders score well they will make significant headway. As it stands:
Button 72
Barrichello 56
Vettel 53
Webber 51.5
Button has used up all his luck. If he keeps finishing with 1-2 points his lead may well evaporate in the next three races or so. But the fact is he has a 16 point cushion, and if he were to extend it by 4 points he would have a two race advantage with only four left. He really does need to rediscover some form though.
The Drivers’ title is at a crossroads. If things progress as they have recently Button will crumble and be overtaken, probably by Barrichello. If he can rediscover his past form Button can yet win the title. It’s a fortnight until Monza, where last year Vettel showed the world what a phenomenal driver he is by dominating the race in a Toro Rosso.
The Constructors’ is led by Brawn with a 23.5 point lead. That’s fairly healthy but certainly not safe. I’d expect Brawn to win this title with a 65% (give or take) likelihood.
It’s also worth commenting on Vettel. 53 points, third place, yet he’s only finished 7/12 races and only has one entirely new engine left (he’ll be using it at the engine-straining Monza circuit). With a better finishing rate (which is dire partly due to driver error and partly due to car failures) he’d be far ahead in first place. Of the four contenders he’s the best driver, in my view. If the Red Bull becomes more reliable next season he’ll be a very serious contender. However, this season he’ll face a 10 grid place penalty if another engine blows up and I think he should not be second favourite for the title at 5.5. Barrichello (7.6) should be second favourite.
Morris Dancer
Monday, 31 August 2009
Lembit Opik on the Pirate Party UK
If you don't read Lembit Opik's column, that he writes for the Daily Sport why not start reading it now? James Graham has set up a site called Prawn Free Lembit, the site is Lembit's column but without the porn on the sidebar and all around the site.
An extract from his recent column can be found below:
An extract from his recent column can be found below:
PIRATES could soon be in power in the UK! But they’re not the swashbuckling Johnny Depp-type –– or even our uzi-wielding chums from the Somali coast. I’m talking about the Pirate Party –– the Swedish outfit who campaign for free file-sharing online. They’re fed up of big fees being charged for music downloads, copyright being slapped on YouTube videos and internet usage being tracked. They won a couple of seats in Brussels and are now planning on standing in the UK general election next year. These buccaneers shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve got a big supporter base of mostly young people. I can see problems with making everything free as composers and writers would lose out. But the pirates have a point. Until we take a more reasonable approach to tracking internet usage and copyright questions there may well be a case to say: “Yo-ho, me hearties!”Lembit uses his happy chappy side in the column and I think that's what makes it interesting, I personally read the column (when ever it’s updated on Prawn Free Lembit) and would recommend that others did too.
Sunday, 30 August 2009
Inflation – Every Little Helps
What can loyalty cards tell us about inflation?
When I was young my father made a big thing of collecting GreenShield stamps. For those around in the mid-70’s, you’ll remember that a number of participating retailers issued coupon books and then issued stamps when you purchased groceries or petrol. You had to stick 40 stamps on a page and when the book was full [1280 stamps], you could exchange it for tatty goods in the catalogue showrooms, that eventually became Argos. You could even redeem books for a speedboat (without outboard motor) by spending the equivalent of a new house on petrol, booze & fags.
I don’t think we ever did redeem the books but it was the 1970’s. And for a little boy, sticking the stamps in the book probably got me into the fantastically popular football sticker albums that came along shortly after. But that’s another story.
Green Shield Stamps weren’t the first incentive scheme and we’ve had a series of others since. Airmiles, Nectar and retailer’s own schemes. But what’s focusing my mind is they all seem to fade away after a while. And they all fade away when their value becomes debased, which tells us a little bit about the causes & effects of inflation, which I am convinced is round the corner.
The debasement normally follows a familiar pattern. The loyalty scheme builds-up a customer base. Then there’s a promotion that offers extra stamps/points for a given spend. And suddenly the stamps/points that have been accumulated can’t buy as much as they used to. Or, in a cynical twist, you can maintain the previous spending-power but only redeeming for stuff you wouldn’t want anyway. In any event, as ‘a store of value’ they’re not worth that much anymore. And then a new much larger denomination stamp comes along….
Now substitute the words "stamp" or “point” for “pound” and it all sounds a bit like inflation to me. Which is why I am perplexed by the decision by Tesco to give double points on their loyalty scheme and to publicise it so widely as a Good Thing this week.
The other day we had a mailing from Tesco in the bunnco household. We shop there occasionally and when we do it’s normally for a couple of hundred quid. The company proudly informed us that we had spent enough to qualify for a £3.50 voucher to spend on-the-house. Thanks Tesco!
I suppose that by sending the voucher, they’ve now redeemed and cancelled the old points so that in future new vouchers will effectively consist of ‘new’ double-points, rather like the Zimbabwean’s knocking a few zeros off the trillion-dollar banknotes. But you’re still only going to be able to get a free can of beans for every £100 you spend! We all know that… no matter how much you spend.
And you'll save more than you'll ever get in vouchers by shopping elsewhere, which is why Lidl, Aldi & new own-brand 'Value' ranges are now more popular.
But I suppose that Tesco’s decision is meant to make people feel richer even if the points produced aren’t worth as much as they used to be.
Which is why I think Tesco is making a big mistake whilst doing us all a favour: So many people participate in the Tesco scheme that they can now see for themselves in the comfort of their own homes how inflation happens when traditional stores of value are debased and what the consequences are. But with points, not pounds.
I’m not an economist but I do understand economics. And the parallels between the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing [QE] policy and Tesco’s decision to print-points seem clear to me. There’ll be a lot more points/pounds in circulation which will make people feel richer but they won’t be able to buy as much as before because inflation will fill the gap. It’s what happens. And the extra £50bn QE splurge announced two weeks ago is going to make it worse.
So it means getting out of cash and into assets, which is why the estate agents suddenly don’t have a lot of houses to sell but at least the Tesco Loyalty Card manager can apply for the Nobel Prize for Economics for making it clear to everyone at a level they can understand how increasing the money supply excessively is the road to ruin.
When I was young my father made a big thing of collecting GreenShield stamps. For those around in the mid-70’s, you’ll remember that a number of participating retailers issued coupon books and then issued stamps when you purchased groceries or petrol. You had to stick 40 stamps on a page and when the book was full [1280 stamps], you could exchange it for tatty goods in the catalogue showrooms, that eventually became Argos. You could even redeem books for a speedboat (without outboard motor) by spending the equivalent of a new house on petrol, booze & fags.
I don’t think we ever did redeem the books but it was the 1970’s. And for a little boy, sticking the stamps in the book probably got me into the fantastically popular football sticker albums that came along shortly after. But that’s another story.
Green Shield Stamps weren’t the first incentive scheme and we’ve had a series of others since. Airmiles, Nectar and retailer’s own schemes. But what’s focusing my mind is they all seem to fade away after a while. And they all fade away when their value becomes debased, which tells us a little bit about the causes & effects of inflation, which I am convinced is round the corner.
The debasement normally follows a familiar pattern. The loyalty scheme builds-up a customer base. Then there’s a promotion that offers extra stamps/points for a given spend. And suddenly the stamps/points that have been accumulated can’t buy as much as they used to. Or, in a cynical twist, you can maintain the previous spending-power but only redeeming for stuff you wouldn’t want anyway. In any event, as ‘a store of value’ they’re not worth that much anymore. And then a new much larger denomination stamp comes along….
Now substitute the words "stamp" or “point” for “pound” and it all sounds a bit like inflation to me. Which is why I am perplexed by the decision by Tesco to give double points on their loyalty scheme and to publicise it so widely as a Good Thing this week.
The other day we had a mailing from Tesco in the bunnco household. We shop there occasionally and when we do it’s normally for a couple of hundred quid. The company proudly informed us that we had spent enough to qualify for a £3.50 voucher to spend on-the-house. Thanks Tesco!
I suppose that by sending the voucher, they’ve now redeemed and cancelled the old points so that in future new vouchers will effectively consist of ‘new’ double-points, rather like the Zimbabwean’s knocking a few zeros off the trillion-dollar banknotes. But you’re still only going to be able to get a free can of beans for every £100 you spend! We all know that… no matter how much you spend.
And you'll save more than you'll ever get in vouchers by shopping elsewhere, which is why Lidl, Aldi & new own-brand 'Value' ranges are now more popular.
But I suppose that Tesco’s decision is meant to make people feel richer even if the points produced aren’t worth as much as they used to be.
Which is why I think Tesco is making a big mistake whilst doing us all a favour: So many people participate in the Tesco scheme that they can now see for themselves in the comfort of their own homes how inflation happens when traditional stores of value are debased and what the consequences are. But with points, not pounds.
I’m not an economist but I do understand economics. And the parallels between the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing [QE] policy and Tesco’s decision to print-points seem clear to me. There’ll be a lot more points/pounds in circulation which will make people feel richer but they won’t be able to buy as much as before because inflation will fill the gap. It’s what happens. And the extra £50bn QE splurge announced two weeks ago is going to make it worse.
So it means getting out of cash and into assets, which is why the estate agents suddenly don’t have a lot of houses to sell but at least the Tesco Loyalty Card manager can apply for the Nobel Prize for Economics for making it clear to everyone at a level they can understand how increasing the money supply excessively is the road to ruin.
Saturday, 29 August 2009
Spa Preview
Spa is one the great race circuits, and last season’s phenomenal duel in the wet between Raikonnen and Hamilton was a highlight sullied only by the FIA politicking which saw Hamilton robbed of victory for driving a car that did not have the regulatory amount of red paint on it.
But what of this year? Qualifying was a shocker, Button, Hamilton and Alonso out in Q2, Fisichella on pole for Force India, Barrichello in 4th is the best-placed title contender. The vaunted Red Bulls, for whom this track was meant to be perfect, are down in 8th and 9th, Vettel ahead of his teammate despite a slightly heavier car.
The fuel loads (http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/8/9843.html) indicated that Fisichella is light, and so is Barrichello. Raikonnen’s 6th-placed Ferrari is around 655kg, similar to Trulli and Heidfeld (2nd and 3rd respectively).
I think Raikonnen stands a reasonable chance of success here. His KERS could propel him ahead of Barrichello and Kubica, who are both lighter on fuel. Fisichella’s racy, but his fuel load is lighter than most and he may well be leapfrogged during the pitstops.
It is possible for a driver unaccustomed to success to dominate from pole (Vettel did so during a virtuoso performance last year at the Monza monsoon) but I don’t think Fisichella will manage it. The Toyota (driven by Trulli) has been a freakish car this season, sometimes incredibly fast, more recently languishing at the back of the grid. Heidfeld’s BMW has also performed poorly until now. Ferrari have been doing consistently well for the last few races with a 3rd in Valencia and a 2nd in Hungary (both Raikonnen).
Presently he’s 5.2 on Betfair, but the odds on Ferrari winning are longer at 5.5.
Regarding the title race, this is a good one for Barrichello. If he gets a top points position he’ll slash Button’s 18 point lead to anything from 8 to 13, with 5 races left, and move further ahead of the contenders behind him. Button will be glad if he gets any points, and the Red Bulls will be aiming for mid-points or higher.
The Constructors’ continues to look good for Brawn, despite Button seeming to buckle under the pressure whilst his team mate goes from strength to strength.
I may also back Hamilton to finish in the points (presently around evens). He starts 12th, but has KERS and has been performing very nicely of late (although Spa is very unsuited to the McLaren).
Morris Dancer
But what of this year? Qualifying was a shocker, Button, Hamilton and Alonso out in Q2, Fisichella on pole for Force India, Barrichello in 4th is the best-placed title contender. The vaunted Red Bulls, for whom this track was meant to be perfect, are down in 8th and 9th, Vettel ahead of his teammate despite a slightly heavier car.
The fuel loads (http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/8/9843.html) indicated that Fisichella is light, and so is Barrichello. Raikonnen’s 6th-placed Ferrari is around 655kg, similar to Trulli and Heidfeld (2nd and 3rd respectively).
I think Raikonnen stands a reasonable chance of success here. His KERS could propel him ahead of Barrichello and Kubica, who are both lighter on fuel. Fisichella’s racy, but his fuel load is lighter than most and he may well be leapfrogged during the pitstops.
It is possible for a driver unaccustomed to success to dominate from pole (Vettel did so during a virtuoso performance last year at the Monza monsoon) but I don’t think Fisichella will manage it. The Toyota (driven by Trulli) has been a freakish car this season, sometimes incredibly fast, more recently languishing at the back of the grid. Heidfeld’s BMW has also performed poorly until now. Ferrari have been doing consistently well for the last few races with a 3rd in Valencia and a 2nd in Hungary (both Raikonnen).
Presently he’s 5.2 on Betfair, but the odds on Ferrari winning are longer at 5.5.
Regarding the title race, this is a good one for Barrichello. If he gets a top points position he’ll slash Button’s 18 point lead to anything from 8 to 13, with 5 races left, and move further ahead of the contenders behind him. Button will be glad if he gets any points, and the Red Bulls will be aiming for mid-points or higher.
The Constructors’ continues to look good for Brawn, despite Button seeming to buckle under the pressure whilst his team mate goes from strength to strength.
I may also back Hamilton to finish in the points (presently around evens). He starts 12th, but has KERS and has been performing very nicely of late (although Spa is very unsuited to the McLaren).
Morris Dancer
Thursday, 27 August 2009
Scotland's Swing Seats 4way marginals in the North and East
Scotland 2010: The 31 seats that matter Part 7: The multi party Battleground seats in the North-east and Central Scotland
At the General Election, now expected to be held in May 2010, out of Scotland’s 59 seats, as many as 31 could change hands.
Since 2005, Scotland has voted 3 times, at the Holyrood and Council elections in 2007 and at the European elections in 2009. Every 4 years all Scottish councils elect all councillors simultaneously using the STV multi-member ward system and Holyrood a mixture of “first past the post” for 73 constituency MSP and 8 regional lists each electing 7 additional regional MSPs from party lists.
As polls have varied since 2007 but few Scotland only polls have been taken I have predicted outcomes on the basis of the SNP polling 30-35%, Labour 30-35%, Tories 20-25% and LibDems 10-15%. The problem predicting Westminster results is that few Holyrood seats resemble the 2005 created Westminster ones and the Council boundaries rarely match the Westminster seats either.
Here are the 4 multi party “battleground seats” in the North-east and Central Scotland
Aberdeen South: (Lab) was the only Scottish Tory gain in 1992 (from Labour) it fell to them in 1997 and Anne Begg (the lady in a wheelchair in the House of Commons) is an able MP. The LibDems came close in 2005 and this is probably their top Scottish target. In 2007 the Holyrood seat which is LibDem held saw their then party leader Nicol Stephen suffer an 11.2% LibDem-SNP swing shaving the majority to 2,700 votes or 9.1%. Labour’s best hope is that as in Edinburgh South the best alternative is unclear and the anti-Labour vote is split letting Anne Begg hold. If it is clear the LibDems cannot win then we could see a repeat of 1992 and a Tory gain but otherwise a narrow Labour hold. If the LibDems sort themselves out then they should take the seat.
Ochil and South Perthshire: (Lab) formed out of large parts of the former Perth and Kinross Tory seat and the neighbouring Labour seat, this is a 3-way marginal which Lab just held by 688 votes in 2005 against the SNP. In the Ochil seat at Holyrood, the very popular ex-SNP Westminster MP George Reid took the seat from Lab in 2003 and his successor held it in 2007 but by only 490 votes. If the Tory party is doing well in its heartland this will be a Tory gain. If the SNP achieve a swing across Scotland they will take the seat and if the anti-Labour vote splits evenly they may just hold on.
Stirling: (Lab) Scotland’s answer to Enfield Southgate in 1997, this was arguably Labour’s prize scalp in the shape of Michael Forsyth, seen as the architect of most of the Thatcherite policies which so alienated Scotland from the Tories in the 1980s and 1990s. The Tories want it back but in 2007 the Holyrood seat created one of the big surprises of the night when the popular SNP list MP Bruce Crawford captured the seat on a large 9.5% swing, mainly at Labour’s expense. The Holyrood seat is very different from the Westminster seat and Anne McGuire a very able but “mouthy” Lab minister whose majority of 4,700 looks very vulnerable. A 3-way marginal, this one should be a Tory gain if the heartland vote returns, SNP if it doesn’t but Labour should lose it.
Edinburgh South: (Lab) is a strange seat being a genuine 3-way marginal in 2005 when Nigel Griffiths the former Labour minister held off the LibDems by a mere 405 votes or less than 1%. Since then in 2007 at Holyrood, the LibDem Mike Pringle held the seat with the same name but much different boundaries by almost 2,000 votes or almost 6% having achieved a 2.5% swing from Labour. Now that Nigel Griffiths has been exposed due to his unusual activities on Remembrance Day, this is now seen as the top Tory target in Edinburgh and it would take a swing of 4.5% for them to come from third to first. Labour should lose but to whom? If the LibDems have a good election they will easily take the seat but if not, a Tory gain.
At the General Election, now expected to be held in May 2010, out of Scotland’s 59 seats, as many as 31 could change hands.
Since 2005, Scotland has voted 3 times, at the Holyrood and Council elections in 2007 and at the European elections in 2009. Every 4 years all Scottish councils elect all councillors simultaneously using the STV multi-member ward system and Holyrood a mixture of “first past the post” for 73 constituency MSP and 8 regional lists each electing 7 additional regional MSPs from party lists.
As polls have varied since 2007 but few Scotland only polls have been taken I have predicted outcomes on the basis of the SNP polling 30-35%, Labour 30-35%, Tories 20-25% and LibDems 10-15%. The problem predicting Westminster results is that few Holyrood seats resemble the 2005 created Westminster ones and the Council boundaries rarely match the Westminster seats either.
Here are the 4 multi party “battleground seats” in the North-east and Central Scotland
Aberdeen South: (Lab) was the only Scottish Tory gain in 1992 (from Labour) it fell to them in 1997 and Anne Begg (the lady in a wheelchair in the House of Commons) is an able MP. The LibDems came close in 2005 and this is probably their top Scottish target. In 2007 the Holyrood seat which is LibDem held saw their then party leader Nicol Stephen suffer an 11.2% LibDem-SNP swing shaving the majority to 2,700 votes or 9.1%. Labour’s best hope is that as in Edinburgh South the best alternative is unclear and the anti-Labour vote is split letting Anne Begg hold. If it is clear the LibDems cannot win then we could see a repeat of 1992 and a Tory gain but otherwise a narrow Labour hold. If the LibDems sort themselves out then they should take the seat.
Ochil and South Perthshire: (Lab) formed out of large parts of the former Perth and Kinross Tory seat and the neighbouring Labour seat, this is a 3-way marginal which Lab just held by 688 votes in 2005 against the SNP. In the Ochil seat at Holyrood, the very popular ex-SNP Westminster MP George Reid took the seat from Lab in 2003 and his successor held it in 2007 but by only 490 votes. If the Tory party is doing well in its heartland this will be a Tory gain. If the SNP achieve a swing across Scotland they will take the seat and if the anti-Labour vote splits evenly they may just hold on.
Stirling: (Lab) Scotland’s answer to Enfield Southgate in 1997, this was arguably Labour’s prize scalp in the shape of Michael Forsyth, seen as the architect of most of the Thatcherite policies which so alienated Scotland from the Tories in the 1980s and 1990s. The Tories want it back but in 2007 the Holyrood seat created one of the big surprises of the night when the popular SNP list MP Bruce Crawford captured the seat on a large 9.5% swing, mainly at Labour’s expense. The Holyrood seat is very different from the Westminster seat and Anne McGuire a very able but “mouthy” Lab minister whose majority of 4,700 looks very vulnerable. A 3-way marginal, this one should be a Tory gain if the heartland vote returns, SNP if it doesn’t but Labour should lose it.
Edinburgh South: (Lab) is a strange seat being a genuine 3-way marginal in 2005 when Nigel Griffiths the former Labour minister held off the LibDems by a mere 405 votes or less than 1%. Since then in 2007 at Holyrood, the LibDem Mike Pringle held the seat with the same name but much different boundaries by almost 2,000 votes or almost 6% having achieved a 2.5% swing from Labour. Now that Nigel Griffiths has been exposed due to his unusual activities on Remembrance Day, this is now seen as the top Tory target in Edinburgh and it would take a swing of 4.5% for them to come from third to first. Labour should lose but to whom? If the LibDems have a good election they will easily take the seat but if not, a Tory gain.
Wednesday, 26 August 2009
Has Murdoch launched a "Get Brown Out!" campaign?
The following is a direct quote from Jonathan Hunt of the Fox News Channel reporting on the Prime Minister's statement today:
Now, if that is not a clarion call to people in the US to encourage their British friends to vote Conservative at the next election, I do not know what is!
Our viewers should know that that (Westminster has no control over the decision of the Scottish Parliament) is disengenous at best. The Scottish Parliament is not entirely independent of the UK Parliament... and it is clear to anyone who knows that political system that... Gordon Brown could have stopped the release if he wished to do so
Now, if that is not a clarion call to people in the US to encourage their British friends to vote Conservative at the next election, I do not know what is!
Sunday, 23 August 2009
Wish you were here. Are they all swingers in Great Yarmouth?
There are seats, “bellwether seats”, that always seem to elect an MP of the Governing Party and Sunny Great Yarmouth on the Norfolk Coast is one of those. In this article I want to focus on this single seat in a part of the world I know well.
I hope that other PB’ers will write other ‘seat profiles’ in other areas over the coming months.
Do you remember back in 1990 when Thatcher was giving her final PMQs to the Commons and some loudmouth MP heckled to say that ‘she was the best man they’d got’. Yep, it was the then MP from Yarmouth, Michael Cartiss. He held on in 1992 but he was ‘out’ in 1997 when Labour’s Tony Wright got home. But will Yarmouth swing back to Tory Brandon Lewis next year? Let's see.
Yarmouth’s current MP might kindly be described as a lucky ‘Good Constituency MP’. Lucky because he shares his name with the high profile Chairman of the Public Administration Committee and MP for Cannock Chase. And a ‘good constituency MP’ because he’s never going to rise above back-bench anonymity.
Whereas Cannock Chase’s Tony Wright is always on the national TV & Radio, his Norfolk country cousin doesn’t even benefit from Radio Norfolk or Eastern Daily Press coverage. We certainly haven’t seen any of the loudmouth antics experienced under his predecessor. And it’s a bit of a shame really because Yarmouth needs a strong voice in London…. even if many voters in the town think they have one in that nice man from Staffordshire!
Now, one of the strange things about Yarmouth is that it’s had an effective Conservative controlled Council with a large majority for the last 8 years or so but has returned a Labour MP in the meantime. But that’s because the traditional Labour vote has been piled-up in a few really quite deprived wards whereas some of the suburbs such as Gorleston-on-Sea, Bradwell & Caister-on-Sea as well as outlying villages like Rollesby & Martham have been solidly Tory… but not quite enough to outweigh Labour’s heartland in the town in a borough-wide poll. The LibDems tried hard at a by-election last year to break out from their North Norfolk stronghold [Norman Lamb MP] and got nowhere and there hasn’t been a LibDem councillor in the town for years, if ever. They won’t feature next year.
There’s been a lot of investment in Yarmouth recently. The seafront is looking really spick-and-span and a multi-million pound outer harbour capable of taking the largest ships is taking shape. A health centre is being extended but it’s been difficult for Labour to take the credit for these. And where a lot of effort was expended trying to get one of the super-casinos, Labour screwed it up, whilst the local business that makes all the fruit-machine glass just folded. For somebody who theyworkforus tells us has a keen interest in gambling, Wright seems to have been severely handicapped by the stewards in London.
Local Labour activists have been split over the MP’s expenses, where Wright escaped relatively lightly, but even before that they’d taken the core vote for granted and at this year’s County Elections, the most deprived division, Nelson, which includes the ONS’s 106th worst SuperOutputArea on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measure in the whole country, returned a UKIP councillor. The Conservatives need 3.5% swing to win the seat at the general. In the June 4th County elections, nationally the Tories enjoyed a 9% swing but in Great Yarmouth they got 13.8% with Labour only holding its core Magdalen Division by 56 votes (was 1200). It’s not looking good for Tony.
If you have a look at ElectoralCalculus, it seems to agree with Labour’s majority of 3.055 being converted into a Conservative one of about 5,000 depending on turnout. Unusually for a Norfolk seat, boundary changes do not apply to Yarmouth this time.
Electorate 68,886 Turnout 60.06%
Top 2005 Votes 2005 Share 2010 Prediction
LAB 18,849 45.56% 34.76%
CON 15,794 38.17% 45.46%
LIB 4,585 11.08% 8.76%
OTH 2,148 5.19% 11.02%
LAB Majority 3,055 7.38% Pred Maj 10.71% CON Gain
Over on Anthony Well’s UK Polling Report, Yarmouth comes in at 62 on the Conservative’s list of targets. It’s no secret that the Tories have been investing heavily in the top 70 targets and local people have seen Brandon Lewis’s face staring down at them from billboards for months. It’s a must-win for them if they’re to have any sort of majority to work with.
So, who is this Brandon Lewis? I bumped into Tony Wright’s sister some months back and she was complaining that the Tories had chosen ‘some lawyer from London’ to fight her brother. But I’m not sure that characterisation is accurate. Yes, Brandon is a lawyer but he does have local connections: His father owned the Yarmouth’s famous Docwra Rock Factory and he’s been living locally for a while. He’s certainly been seen canvassing hard in the constituency, which is why the Yarmouth outperformed nationally on June 4th.
And then there’s Brandon’s secret weapon. He has just given-up the leadership of Brentwood Council in Essex to concentrate on winning the seat. Brandon became the protégé of the local MP when he took the Tories from 8 seats to control of that Essex Council in short order… and who is the MP for Brentwood & Ongar? Step forward Eric Pickles, Chairman of the Party.
There’s been evening racing at Yarmouth this week and the town has been full to bursting as people holiday at home and enjoy a flutter on the course. And in the national race, whoever the runners and riders may be, it’s Yarmouth that backs the winner every time. It’s Brandon to win by a distance. Nail it on.
Bunnco – Your Man on the Spot
I hope that other PB’ers will write other ‘seat profiles’ in other areas over the coming months.
Do you remember back in 1990 when Thatcher was giving her final PMQs to the Commons and some loudmouth MP heckled to say that ‘she was the best man they’d got’. Yep, it was the then MP from Yarmouth, Michael Cartiss. He held on in 1992 but he was ‘out’ in 1997 when Labour’s Tony Wright got home. But will Yarmouth swing back to Tory Brandon Lewis next year? Let's see.
Yarmouth’s current MP might kindly be described as a lucky ‘Good Constituency MP’. Lucky because he shares his name with the high profile Chairman of the Public Administration Committee and MP for Cannock Chase. And a ‘good constituency MP’ because he’s never going to rise above back-bench anonymity.
Whereas Cannock Chase’s Tony Wright is always on the national TV & Radio, his Norfolk country cousin doesn’t even benefit from Radio Norfolk or Eastern Daily Press coverage. We certainly haven’t seen any of the loudmouth antics experienced under his predecessor. And it’s a bit of a shame really because Yarmouth needs a strong voice in London…. even if many voters in the town think they have one in that nice man from Staffordshire!
Now, one of the strange things about Yarmouth is that it’s had an effective Conservative controlled Council with a large majority for the last 8 years or so but has returned a Labour MP in the meantime. But that’s because the traditional Labour vote has been piled-up in a few really quite deprived wards whereas some of the suburbs such as Gorleston-on-Sea, Bradwell & Caister-on-Sea as well as outlying villages like Rollesby & Martham have been solidly Tory… but not quite enough to outweigh Labour’s heartland in the town in a borough-wide poll. The LibDems tried hard at a by-election last year to break out from their North Norfolk stronghold [Norman Lamb MP] and got nowhere and there hasn’t been a LibDem councillor in the town for years, if ever. They won’t feature next year.
There’s been a lot of investment in Yarmouth recently. The seafront is looking really spick-and-span and a multi-million pound outer harbour capable of taking the largest ships is taking shape. A health centre is being extended but it’s been difficult for Labour to take the credit for these. And where a lot of effort was expended trying to get one of the super-casinos, Labour screwed it up, whilst the local business that makes all the fruit-machine glass just folded. For somebody who theyworkforus tells us has a keen interest in gambling, Wright seems to have been severely handicapped by the stewards in London.
Local Labour activists have been split over the MP’s expenses, where Wright escaped relatively lightly, but even before that they’d taken the core vote for granted and at this year’s County Elections, the most deprived division, Nelson, which includes the ONS’s 106th worst SuperOutputArea on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measure in the whole country, returned a UKIP councillor. The Conservatives need 3.5% swing to win the seat at the general. In the June 4th County elections, nationally the Tories enjoyed a 9% swing but in Great Yarmouth they got 13.8% with Labour only holding its core Magdalen Division by 56 votes (was 1200). It’s not looking good for Tony.
If you have a look at ElectoralCalculus, it seems to agree with Labour’s majority of 3.055 being converted into a Conservative one of about 5,000 depending on turnout. Unusually for a Norfolk seat, boundary changes do not apply to Yarmouth this time.
Electorate 68,886 Turnout 60.06%
Top 2005 Votes 2005 Share 2010 Prediction
LAB 18,849 45.56% 34.76%
CON 15,794 38.17% 45.46%
LIB 4,585 11.08% 8.76%
OTH 2,148 5.19% 11.02%
LAB Majority 3,055 7.38% Pred Maj 10.71% CON Gain
Over on Anthony Well’s UK Polling Report, Yarmouth comes in at 62 on the Conservative’s list of targets. It’s no secret that the Tories have been investing heavily in the top 70 targets and local people have seen Brandon Lewis’s face staring down at them from billboards for months. It’s a must-win for them if they’re to have any sort of majority to work with.
So, who is this Brandon Lewis? I bumped into Tony Wright’s sister some months back and she was complaining that the Tories had chosen ‘some lawyer from London’ to fight her brother. But I’m not sure that characterisation is accurate. Yes, Brandon is a lawyer but he does have local connections: His father owned the Yarmouth’s famous Docwra Rock Factory and he’s been living locally for a while. He’s certainly been seen canvassing hard in the constituency, which is why the Yarmouth outperformed nationally on June 4th.
And then there’s Brandon’s secret weapon. He has just given-up the leadership of Brentwood Council in Essex to concentrate on winning the seat. Brandon became the protégé of the local MP when he took the Tories from 8 seats to control of that Essex Council in short order… and who is the MP for Brentwood & Ongar? Step forward Eric Pickles, Chairman of the Party.
There’s been evening racing at Yarmouth this week and the town has been full to bursting as people holiday at home and enjoy a flutter on the course. And in the national race, whoever the runners and riders may be, it’s Yarmouth that backs the winner every time. It’s Brandon to win by a distance. Nail it on.
Bunnco – Your Man on the Spot
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