Thursday, 6 November 2008

Labour hold on by 5000?

The BBC is reporting that the SNP have halved Labour's majority in Glenrothes, but that still means that the Government has held the constiteuncy with a majority of about 5,000.

Any and all news welcome.

Morus

45 comments:

Morus said...

test

fr said...

Stephen Pound on Sky defending economy. Things must be worse than we thought. (He thinks retail sales are holding up well - yes really!)

Me said...

The Guardian is reporting almost that...repost from the last thread:

"I've never attended a count where the predictions have veered around so wildly. The SNP are now briefing that, on the basis of the figures that they've seen, they expect Labour to win by between 3,000 and 5,000 votes."

anonymous and dangerous said...

So hang on - we've got predictions of SNP snatching it, then an hour later Labour winning by 5k?

Put money on Labour, so either way I don't care

Sean Thomas said...

Congrats to Labour. I am irritated that I have been proved right: I have been predicting a Labour hold for a while. Ahem.

Ted said...

A Labour win will keep the Gordon narrative going strong. Still on the bright side the SNP haven't won.

Nick Palmer said...

More serious comment - if Labour has really won by several thousand, it's a truly wonderful result in the circumstances. Everything I've said about the lack of canvass data and the deep pessimism of all the MPs I've talked to was true, so it'll be an astonishing success for Gordon, Sarah and the team up there. Frank Roy for the Cabinet!

Anonymous said...

None of this seems to add up. The Lib Dem vote is said to have collaped, the Tories will be third yet Labour hold with a comfortable majority>

Harry Hayfield said...

All data from BBC Scotland:

Turnout: 52.37% (35,930 votes)
Estimates: SNP say "halved the majority". Using % terms that's 14.27% which equals 5,127.

Me said...

Will this make Brown more likely to go to the country early?

EdP said...

10664 majority halved (if it has) isn't exactly a great result for Brown in this seat.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Emu in Parliament!

toontoon said...

If the SNP have lost by the margin suggested then it's a truly awful night for them.

anonymous and dangerous said...

If this was a seat in England, what would the equivalent be?

Morus said...

Someone always knows, someone always tells, and it seems someone usually bets.

Labour suddely crashing from 3.5 down to 1.01? That was insider movement (not illegal, or in my view unethical) and must have come from the count.

I was a scrutineer in 2005, and if you are watching the counting (and have any experience counting cards at Blackjack) you can extrapolate a result by watching 50 votes in 20 random piles very quickly.

Anonymous said...

Why? He'd still lose. This By-election is so low profile that it really wont make a great deal of difference either way. The SNP will be left asking a lot of questions of themselves however.

EdP said...

me @ 23.44 - 'Will this make Brown more likely to go to the country early?'

One can only hope.

Sean Thomas said...

Calamitous result for Salmond and, to a lesser extent, the SNP.

All that bragging about a political earthquake from Wee Eck. Tut tut.

Morus said...

I disagree - a win by 5000 is a phenomenal result for Labour halfway through its third term, against the SNP only a few weeks after Glasgow East.

Does this make an early election a possibility?

Gaz said...

I put £10 on labour earlier on, looks like i might get my first win!!

Nick Palmer said...

The Tory comment that we were doing well in the 'wrong' boxes is interesting. On the one occasion I talked to the candidate and said I understood that Glenrothes town was the problem, he shook his head and said they'd had a very good reception there that day. So I wonder if the SNP grip on the town has weakened, rather than just diifferential turnout from the Labour loyalists in the small towns.

At any rate, perhaps some of our more exuberantly contemptuously anti-Labour Scottish posters (Easteross and MalcolmG spring to mind) will have pause for thought. To be fair, marcia has been cautious throughout.

toontoon said...

I doubt it Morus, they wouldn't go to the polls in the run up to Xmas. Would they? Earliest time for the election has to be March.

Me said...

Edp 23 46- lol

Morus- see my comment at 23 44. =)

ChrisM said...

Perhaps this shows, as has been suggested previously, that the swingback to Brown has come in the Labour heartlands. Hence they can save seats like Glenrothes. That doesn't neccessarily mean that he can win an election.

Anonymous said...

How long to the decleration?

Sean Thomas said...

FFS, sort out yr bandwidth guys. No offence. This is a Scottish by-election, not the Papal Conclave.

xx

Gaz said...

snap election before christmas???

Anonymous said...

Could this be the first time ever that the PHI100 have been right?

LS said...

Disastrous for Salmond, very poor for the country.

Looks like the media narrative is still on :(

Ted said...

MPs seem to have been closer than commentators.

This seems to confirm the last Scots poll showing Labour well in lead over SNP in Westminster elections.

Nick Palmer said...

Meanwhile, Labour has regained the Glasgow East council seat vacated by the SNP winner of the Parliamentary by-election. Quite a night.

Nick Palmer said...

Betfair not quite convinced - you can still get 1.1 on Labour

thomas said...

Well, this is a stunning victory for Brown. If he can win here, he can win anywhere. In my view, and I don't know why I'm saying this, I think Labour should call a GE. I don't want to give you ideas Nick, but the time is right. I for one would be worried sick.

Anonymous said...

pb1 is back up.

thx, robert

Anonymous said...

On this evidence Labour is strengthening its position - in its heartlands. There's no evidence thus far that the Brown 'bounce' has been bought anywhere else. Hence whilst the SNP appear to have slumped in the Westminster polls the Tories has remained relatively consistent. That should probably check any other confidence on Brown's part.

Chris A said...

Before everyone gets too excited, what price were Labour as the Dunfermline returning officer mounted the stage?

Sparky said...

Re the Labour price crashing on betfair ... that happened about a minute after the "Lab hold" was announced on BBC Scotland TV... it wasn't insider trading.

anonymous and dangerous said...

Sorry to ask again - what is the equivalent constituency of Gentrothes in England ?

Ted said...

Interesting listening to Ming Campbell - supporting the Labour narrative better than Labour have so far.

Me said...

pb1 is back? not here.

Me said...

yeah, is back. Got it now, thanks!

Hopi Sen said...

No f**king way.

I've told everyone I work with that Labour would lose this by a thousand or more.

Don't know whether to be delighted that we might be a lot better or worried tht I'm going to look a total idiot as an election forecaster.

EdP said...

Anonymous at 23.55 How's Labour strengthening it's position when a majority is reduced? Eh?

Morus said...

Oh, come on SeanT - we've had the American Election, and a quarter of a million hits in a day, and we were down for about ten minutes.

We've been down for ten minutes tonight, because this is HUGE news!!!

Morus said...

PoliticalBetting.com (the main site) is back up and running

Tangent said...

If the rumours are true, this is an excellent Tory result. Brown's position is cemented - which should be good news for the English marginals; the LDs are seriously wounded if they come third; and Salmond's bubble is pricked, strengthening Unionism and possibly improving the Tory Scottish position. A third place in a seat like Glenrothes is more than Cameron would have looked for.