by Irfan Ahmed
When I criticised Robert Smithson and his model that he has created to predict the outcome of the next general election there was an outcry by fellow PBers. I now have more evidence to add to my small evidence pile, arguing my corner that Robert’s model is wrong.
Roberts model, predicts that Burnley shall stay a Labour seat at the next general election and I think he and others need to reconsider their belief in the model. The prediction by Robert is as followed for Burnley:
LIB DEMS 8775
The problem with the model is that, it hasn’t looked at the political forecast for Burnley. First of all at the 2009 County Council elections the Lib Dems won 5 out of the six seats, moving on from that the reputation of the PPC is something that needs to be taken into consideration.
Gordon Birtwistle is running a mono causal campaign that has made him a celebrity in Burnley, the campaign “I want my Hospital Back” is really turning into a vote winner for Burnley something with neighbouring constituency Lib Dems are failing to benefit from.
Gordon has approximately 2000 or so poster sites, and this isn’t from what he and his team have told me but from what I have seen in Burnley. The Lib Dems are set to win in Burnley, yet Robert’s model predicts otherwise.
So what do fellow PBers think of the model, after having another piece of evidence put forward about the credibility of Robert Smithson’s model?
P.S. I don't have anything against Robert, if that's what people are starting to think after reading my comments on PB and on my own blog.