Saturday, 22 August 2009

Qualifying and race predictions

I slightly overestimated Button’s pace, but he did slot in just behind Vettel and significantly ahead of Webber in qualifying, in line with my response to Peter in the previous post’s comments.

It’s a McLaren front row, Hamilton 1st, Kovalainen 2nd, and neither should have immediate difficulties as they have KERS and the cars behind them (Barrichello, Vettel, Button) do not. Sixth placed man Raikonnen is the next chap with KERS and could easily leapfrog Button and Vettel early on if he starts well.

Mark Webber starts in a disappointing 9th, which won’t do his chances of claiming the Drivers’ title much good but will help Button as the Aussie is his closest rival. Looks to be a great weekend for the English but a bad one for Australia. How terribly sad.

Hamilton is rightly favourite to win. Hard to pick out podium spots as it’s easy to see a large number (down to Raikonnen at least) having a realistic shot. However, I’m surprised Kovalainen’s odds of winning are as long as 8.8. It’s true he’s not as good as Hamilton and has a record of disappointing, but he’s second on the grid with KERS so he should finish the first lap at least in second place and with a good start could even overtake Hamilton early on.

Vettel rather spoilt P3 when his car decided to urinate a huge stream of oil over the track, an indication of the new regulations (limited number of engines per season) and the toll they’re beginning to take. Although arguably the most talented driver out there, Vettel has failed to finish in 40% of the Grand Prix so far.

He crashed out in Australia when he got clumsy with Kubica’s car, spun in Malaysia, had an accident in Monaco and suffered suspension failure in the last race in Hungary.

With Vettel’s high failure rate, Webber starting in ninth, McLaren suddenly rising to dominance, Brawn recovering (at least in the heat of Valencia) and an 18.5 point cushion still Button looks set fair for the Drivers’ title. Of course, he could crash in the first corner, but assuming nothing crazy happens I think this race may mark the comeback of Brawn and Button.

Apologies for my cock-up on the main site, here’s a link to the starting line up:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/results/7921108.stm

Morris Dancer

8 comments:

Seamaster73 said...

Can I ask what the hell these sport blogs are doing on politicalbetting?

Morris Dancer said...

Yes.

Political betting focuses on political matters and betting. People bet on Formula One. I know many will find this sort of thing of no interest, but unless Mike or other staff members of pb.com consider this to be outside the website's remit (and they don't, as yet) I'll continue posting.

Seamaster73 said...

But is anyone interested?

Frankly, I'd rather watch paint dry than watch cars go round and round in circles. But if it was the sort of thing I was interested in, I wouldn't be coming to politicalbetting.com to further my studies.

I'm sure there must be many "Formula One" websites where your insights will get the appreciation they no doubt deserve.

tpfkar said...

Thanks Morris Dancer - this seems to me a good home for betting posts on non-strictly political topics (although F1's probably more political than Downing St) and good luck for a profitable race today.

Yokel said...

Seamaster

Betting, thats what its about. Practically all the patrons of PB.com who regularly bet on politics(and take a serious approach to it) have other betting interests.

As a result we have islands of expertise in not just political betting, but many sporting areas and 'novelty' betting.

PB.com has allowed those people to share information where before they probably wouldnt have come across each other.

I'd bet on which paint dried faster if I thought I had an edge on the market. I'd reckon most regular Pb.com punters would do the same.

As for the F1 season I bet against Button as soon as Brawn started to show signs of vulnerability earlier in the season. The aim was to try to take advantage of market moves.

It looks like bailing out time now. Though it is reckoned Redull will show imprioved form in a couple of GP's to come, their reliability issues and inadequate qualifying here could well be fatal.

Peter from Putney said...

Thanks for this commentary Morris - much appreciated.
This race is wide open and although Lewis will probably win, at his short odds-on price, he simply doesn't look like value to me.

Instead therefore, I'm going for Vettel to achieve a podium finish at odds of 2.5/1 with Skybet ..... it's a cracker IMHO!

zoomraker said...

nice to have a thread that's actually about betting, cheers Morris

Big Brother an interesting market at the moment + X Factor starting soon

Morris Dancer said...

In a brilliant feat I got almost every prediction wrong. Sorry. I did lose out, but made most of it back laying Barrichello for the Drivers' (I'd backed him at 40/1 or suchlike).

Anyway, the Constructors' looks much nicer for Brawn and the Drivers' is actually better for Button. His lead was cut but only by 0.5 points and he's only got six races left to keep his lead. Not impressed with his performance though.

Considered doing a post-race analysis post but I think it'd be better to do pre-race/pre-qualifying articles and discuss results in the comments.