Saturday, 17 April 2010

China: pre-race

Argh. Argh, I tell you. I may stop tipping/betting on qualifying. Red Bull seem able to win regardless of practice form. McLaren were looking good in earlier qualifying, but in Q3 their car decided to be rubbish.

The race starts at 3pm local time. Here’re a few forecasts: – light rain
BBC – heavy rain shower
Wunderground – 20% chance of rain

So, rain is possible, but not certain.

I’ve backed Hamilton and Button to get a podium spot each, at 2.4 and 3.45 respectively. The McLaren seems a little slower than most on the soft tyre, but great on the hard, which may’ve had an impact on the relatively poor qualifying positions (6th and 5th). It’s also mighty on the straights, and as China has a big one, and some smaller ones, this should allow each McLaren man to make passes with ease.

I’ve laid Vettel for the win at 1.97. His car can be unreliable, rain could disrupt his race, Webber may well try and wreak vengeance upon Vettel for the sneaky overtaking at the start, and F1 is generally unpredictable. Vettel is the best driver, but his odds are still short and everybody else’s are long.

Backed Webber for the win. I think he’s top of the middle of the pack rather than top drawer, but his car is brilliant and has a habit of not exploding when Vettel’s does. Plus, 8.6 for second place man is too long.

Let’s hope these do better than the qualifying tips. Post-race analysis may be delayed. Next race is Spain in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

Not sure I'd bet against Vettel at evens. Seems about right for the pole sitter in what is probably still just about the fastest car.

I have the luxury of (again) sitting this out, as I backed Hamilton at the beginning of the week, and then laid my bets as his odds shortened ahead of qualifying. (btw, at the time, tried posting that to the last Malaysia thread, but my message got swallowed.)

Agree that Webber looks decent value, but with the weather a lottery too, I'm going to sit tight and hope Hamilton steals a win, which will make me decent money.

(edit) Just seen Button at 18/1. Got to be worth a couple of quid.

Nigel said...

Well done: great calls (other than Webber).

Fantastic job by Button (18/1, yes !).
Another bizarre but great race from Hamilton (still can't understand why he was so much slower in Q3 than Q2).

One other thought - Rosberg second in the championship shows what you can do when your teammate isn't competing.