Thursday, 22 April 2010

Two polls give it to Clegg - one to Cameron



Three post debate polls on who won:-

ComRes for ITV

33% Clegg
30% Cameron
30% Brown


YouGov

32% Clegg
36% Cameron
29% Brown

Angus Reid

35% Clegg
33% Cameron
23% Brown


Sorry - main site is down




79 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tory trolls gone to drown their sorrows. Cameron pisspoor tonight. Even Brown outshone him.

Plato said...

I think it's fair to say Cameron's team will have to do more than use the gutter press to do their work.

Somebody needs to seriously revamp how he comes across on camera.

Plato said...

I think it's fair to say Cameron's team will have to do more than use the gutter press to do their work.

Somebody needs to seriously revamp how he comes across on camera.

ukpaul said...

This just isn't Cameron's forte for some bizarre reason.

In a massive shock to everyone I put Brown as top!

Brown 8
Clegg 7
Cameron 6.5

Clegg stormed it in the last half hour but Brown was dogged and controlled throughout.

ukpaul said...

Nobody else?

Comres additional questions are indicative.

Voting intention before/after:

Conservative - 36%/35%
Lib Dem - 35%/36%
Labour - 24%/24%

Which party leader do you think gave the most honest answers in the debate tonight?

Clegg - 43%
Cameron - 29%
Brown - 23%

Which party leader, if any, do you think performed better than expected?

Brown - 47%
Cameron - 27%
Clegg - 21%

Clegg actually improved his party's support, the ARS poll showing higher support among wavering voters also suggests why.

Casino said...

Plato/ukpaul: I agree.

Casino said...

I actually thought Cameron sounded hoarse, nervous and inflexible. He is a poor debater and seriously lacked deftness of foot and confidence.

I'd put it Clegg, Brown then Cameron. Brown did very well, for him.

THANK GOD the polls don't back this up. I'm very pleased Clegg/Cameron almost score drawed on this, but I'm baffled why..

ukpaul said...

Casino (royale?).

The percentages are going to mirror party support from now on I think. People have picked a side and they will vote for them or maybe abstain. Not too many switchers when things get heated, people just end up backing their man more vehemently.

ukpaul said...

An interestng figure is how party support is linked to debate favourability as seen on ARS.

At the moment Clegg has fifteen more votes than supporters, Brown minus one and Cameron minus seventeen.

Nick Palmer said...

I think that ukpaul is right that the proportion who just want their guy to win is rising and the proportion who are swayed is falling. The BBC coverage seemed to rate it a score draw - personally I thought Brown edged it (but I would) and certainly he outperformed expectations.

Meanwhile, marginals have been getting a glossy magazine about how wonderful Cameron is - doesn't count against local election expenses as no reference to constituencies. My local Tories have suspended all canvassing to try to get it out simultaneously with PV letters.

Casino said...

ukpaul - yup, casino royale!

You're possibly right but the finale on the BBC next week will decide it.

Either way I think we're looking at a Con seat total of between 270-310, Lib Dem of between 75-115 and Labour of 180-230.

We'll see what happens.

Mike Smithson said...

A Channel Four, however, called it for Clegg on 52, Brown 31 and Cameron 17. I don't know who the pollsters was.

SthLondon Nick said...

Quite the score draw tonight. Brown actually wasn't crushingly awful. Interesting that no one was really swayed by it. Definitely a spring in the step of the Tories tonight. Watching the bits of the worm that I could (ITV.com fell over too often), Brown appears and he gets a negative response before he starts.

SthLondon Nick said...

Angus Reid now

Clegg; 34
Cameron: 33
Brown: 22

Alastair said...

All three parties have now used the word "desperate" to describe one of the other two. I react really badly to this, but obviously focus groups tell them that the word is very powerful.

Sean Thomas said...

Clear loser tonight: pb.com

Sort out the f*cking site. Jesus. A p1ss poor performance.

foamingatthemouth said...

Well I thought Cameron was good, and the anger was particularly good. Clegg is smug. He is smugness personified, the smug boss's son on his internship. Hideous.

Richard said...

Sean Thomas - have a full refund.

Sean Thomas said...

Sean Thomas - have a full refund.

22 April 2010 22:36

OK, Mike can give me the money he makes from his new media career which springs directly from this site and its lively commentary.

More seriously, you can't boast of running Britain's best political website and then have it totally crash during one of the most important political nights of the year.

2/10

tpfkar said...

We felt it was very even between the three; relieved that Clegg robustly defended his position on the EU, Immigration and Trident.

glw said...

Brown fibtastic, but not as bad as last week. Clegg not as good. I would say Cameron edged it, just, he did at least try and answer the questions, whereas Clegg kept emphasising Lib Dems are different and Brown threw a lot of mud. It was much closer, I'm not sure whether it will make much difference.

Where'd Brown get the Lib Dems are anti-American line from? That is normally something associated with the hard left. My hunch is that he wanted something to call Clegg when he said Cameron was anti-European.

Brown comes across as a thoroughly unpleasant individual. I can't see him working in coalition with either of the other two.

Scott P said...

The debate was essentially a score draw. The story tomorrow is dishonest Labour leaflets, including Gordon's own constituency, and the PEB.

Scott P said...

krishgm

Labour clearly have some explaining on the leaflet. Brown looked uncomfortable. But did Cameron make policy on the hoof? #leadersdebate

Mike Smithson said...

Martin Coxall just been on ITV news after his big moment and arrest for trying to take on Prezza

Scott P said...

@nigelfletcher David Milliband asked to disassociate himself from leaflets on R5 and fails to do so

Kristin said...

More even this week, though I still think Gordon's weirdness came through at times. He was caught out on the leaflets and too easily slips into a lie. Clegg wasn't as good as last week, and, imo, for someone to go on new politics and then use the nutters line was urrgghh. Cameron better than last week but still not up to what I think he can do. I'd go with 7/10 Cam & Clegg 6/10 Brown.

Scott P said...

niallpaterson

http://twitpic.com/1hlh1v - The latest tory poster

Scott P said...

Oh dear

glenoglaza

@henrymacrory what is angus reid?

SthLondon Nick said...

The Angus Reid figures at

http://www.angusreidelections.co.uk/2010/04/second-debate/

are quite interesting. Some willingness to shift, but not much.

Scott P said...

The SNP have also waded into leaflet-gate. They say Gordon Brown was "caught red-handed" in the TV debate and claim his own campaign leaflet, distributed in his Fife constituency, states that he will fight against "cuts to concessionary travel". "If he can't be trusted on his own leaflets then what can he be trusted on?" they add.

SthLondon Nick said...

Populus/Times: Clegg 36%, Cameron 36%, Brown 27%

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/8265/populus_times_clegg_36_cameron_36_brown_27.html

DisraeliSmears said...

I've been out all day. What the hell has Martin Coxall done?

Futility said...

I'm a little surprised about the polling results to this debate, but perhaps ukpaul and Nick P have got this right: people are starting to back their own horse.

What I find most interesting is that the wavering voters, according to Angus Reid, are still giving it to Clegg by a decent margin.

This second debate was always going to be a bit more difficult for Clegg. The theme was dull, the question selection was appalling (The Pope!) and Adam Boulton was too hands off. And it was on Sky, so even fewer people will watch, meaning lots more reliance on polls.

BBC next week is to be the killer. Clegg needs to raise his game again, because Brown and Cameron weren't far off his level tonight. I think Clegg edged it, but it is a very tight contest.

Anonymous said...

Cameron like "Jerry Springer" says body language expert, BBC Newsnight. Ha!

The "worm" is total turd

Bob Sykes said...

Cameron better, but he just can't "do" debate can he? Brown ok, but the porkies again will be his downfall - the leaflets thing a spectacular gaffe, and it was thrilling to see Cameron come to life for the only time in this campaign on that issue. He had a decent last 30 minutes (probably the most-watched part given it didn't clash with the soaps), but it wasn't a gamechanger.

Dodgy Clegg didn't exactly enthrall, and is probably starting to get people's backs up with his Mr Angry "shop steward" style of debate.

A bit of a score draw; but the polls suggest the Clegg Bandwagon has run out of steam. Can the LDs sustain ratings in the high 20s for the next fortnight? I wonder...

Futility said...

I'm curious, are any of these post debate polls politically weighted? And should they be? Clearly the Angus Reid one isn't. After all, they're really struggling to find Labour voters tonight.

Sean Thomas said...

So Brown has lost in all four "weighted" and serious polls on the Debate.

No surprise. Unlike Casino I thought Cammo did rather well: much better than last week.

Brown also improved, but from a very low base.

Clegg looked insubstantial. Likeable, but insubstantial.

The single best moment belonged to Brown: slapping down Clegg on Trident.

The most intriguing moment belonged to Cameron: pulling up Brown on the leaflets. That may gain traction.

Rob Roy said...

Labour's blatant lying leaflets started in Glasgow East when they told the pensioners that the SNP was going to take away their bus passes. Alex Salmond had to write to all of them specifically refuting this. Of course, the SNP's complaints fell on deaf ears in the media, and the lies escalated in Glenrothes, with bus passes still featuring on leaflets.

Now that the UK media is interested, those leaflets will be being dug out as we speak and will damn Brown.

Salmond had a current leaflet from Brown's constituency on Sky, which was a smart move to ensure it gets legs; the older ones are even more damning and as Cameron said, were no less than blatant lies.

Kristin said...

One thing I've noticed on the AR response is the number responding for each party. Labour voters seem quite a lot fewer than Con & LD,
Total (752)
Lab (170)
Con (264)
LD (249)
others (69)

So where are the labour voters ?

ukpaul said...

Disraelismears -

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ifl-E3fkzKsIH0KbMshPC57g_NFg

RodCrosby said...

In terms of improvement
Cameron +1
Clegg 0
Brown +1

The debate +2 (apart from perhaps the most bizarre, irrelevant question ever asked in a British general election)

Verdict.
Cameron needed to knockout either one of the others. He failed. Clegg could not continue to walk on water, but has kept momentum. Brown is back in the race.

DisraeliSmears said...

ukpaul

Jesus. We live in interesting times.

Futility said...

Ipsos MORI's panel of undecided voters gave it to Clegg, according to Ben Page. It wasn't as decisive as last week, but a win nevertheless. That would reflect the Angus Reid numbers...

Kristin said...

Have had any phone polls ?

Scott P said...

lucymanning

Had to raid the tory coach for some beer for the way home. Theirs much better stocked than the labour bus. So thanks for the peronis

Bob Sykes said...

Interesting that the LDs back in third on YouGov daily poll - Con 34, Lab 29, LD 28.

Normality resuming?

glw said...

"Salmond had a current leaflet from Brown's constituency on Sky, which was a smart move to ensure it gets legs; the older ones are even more damning and as Cameron said, were no less than blatant lies."

He's a smart cookie Salmond, he rarely misses a trick. I do hope it rebounds on Brown, he certainly deserves it.

SthLondon Nick said...

From Springboard/AR Facebook:

"Springboard UK Post-debate results coming in: So far Clegg's on top but with Cameron winning amongst 'definite' votesrs"

Futility said...

Another thought: why didn't Clegg's proof that last week wasn't a fluke ensure that more voters continued to look favourably on him?

Still, give me a real voting intention poll any day. Next few days will be interesting.

Pensfold said...

Times/Populus poll post debate

Con 37%
Lib 36%
Lab 27%

ukpaul said...

36%, hmm, highest percentage yet. Continued ;abour suffering could yet keep the figures there but I think Brown has stopped the rot.

SthLondon Nick said...

Guardian/ICM - Clegg won

Clegg: 33%

Cameron: 29%

Brown: 29%

From Guardian Live Blog...

ukpaul said...

Sky News Instant Poll
CAMERON 34
CLEGG 34
BROWN 30

Who did that one then?

Me said...

"One reason for the paralysis is that Coulson inexplicably thought Cameron, who was plastered in more slap than Joan Collins, had done well."


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1268157/ANDREW-PIERCE-Paralysed-rift-Tory-war-cabinet.html

Kristin said...

Did anyone say I agree with Nick, I didn't hear it?

Main site on and off at the moment.

John O said...

Don't think that Populus was a VI intention, but one scoring the debate.

John O said...

UK Paul, I think that's their average of the 4 polls...don't understand why Brown on 30% as IIRC he polled lower than that in all of them

Oldrightie said...

I must have watched a different broadcast.

RodCrosby said...

Interesting. looks like Letwin is going to lose his seat....

Pensfold said...

Times/Populus was post debate but probably a poll on who won the debate rather than Voting Intention. Figures were

Con 37%
Lib 36%
Lab 27%

Witan said...

Well I thought that Cameron was the clear winner. Precise, angry where it mattered, calm when it counted, good emphasis on defence, immigration and the lies from Labour, but not precise enough on Europe as he stumbled on the key line about only the Tories voting for the referendum which had been in all three parties manifestos.

Clegg was rather clunky and the novelty wore thin quite quickly. He was rather vague on defence and told porkies about the generals letter to the Times, he made his immigration policy sound too complicated and unworkable, which it is, and nearly swallowed his tie when Cameron speared him on expenses - kitchens and baking pans wasn't it?

Brown, well, it was like watching an old war horse try to join in the jousting. He remembered the lines but I wondered sometimes if he understood the point.

Those leaflets - the poster is out, Labour politicians are already hiding from opponents waving them around. That will run, and on Saturday round two of the Clegg finances.

Scott P said...

Leafletgate

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5935753/has-brown-blown-it.thtml

ChristinaD said...

Right, I think that both Cameron and Brown upped their game tonight and Clegg came off worst because of that and the issues discussed. The Libdem policy platform in these area's simple didn't have the clout needed.

I give it to Cameron for the key point about Labour's targeted leafleting and lies about the Conservatives manifesto.

ukpaul said...

"That will run, and on Saturday round two of the Clegg finances."

Even now, you still haven't got this yet have you? And here we were, being very non partisan on here. Hell, I even said that Brown won the debate!

Pensfold said...

main site down

It's all #nickcleggsfault

RodCrosby said...

weirdness from AR, which may shed light on their voting intention "otherness"

12% could not answer the simple question. Who won the debate?

Witan said...

UKPaul what are you wibbling about?

Are you demanding a detachment from reality?

The Telegraph have set up a shot and it will come as the debate smoke clears. Probably on Saturday. And the leaflets - are we to ignore them?

Kristin said...

Rod, maybe they thought it was a draw. If that option wasn't offered why should they pick a winner?

ChristinaD said...

Also just watched Question Time. I shouted house after the amount of times that Yvette Cooper mentioned 'Tory press'. As I said in an earlier thread, Labour just upped the stakes and made this the Left vs the newspapers either no longer aboard the New Labour bus or those that never were. Diane Abbott just called it the right wing press.

How powerful is our dead tree press against the political teams of the 24 hour rolling news channels? We all thought this would be a battle between Fleet street and the political blogsphere to set the agenda at this election. Scrap that war, Labour just made it personal.

ChristinaD said...

hmm, I was polled last week by Angus Reid a few times, absolutely nothing this week.

Kristin said...

Christina, YouGov sent me a post debate alert yesterday but then never sent me the poll tonight. That's poor imo.

ChristinaD said...

"The most intriguing moment belonged to Cameron: pulling up Brown on the leaflets. That may gain traction.2

Seant, totally agree, that was the moment for me. And then the attacks on the media continued, branding them Right wing or Tory. Brown and Mandelson better hope they covered all their tracks and the exit doors.

ukpaul said...

Witan - look at the post debate polls, this was a draw with Clegg ahead in most polls by a few points.

You may want to ignore the reality but maybe it's best to face up to it, it's not too late.

I praise Cameron where it is deserved and even Brown on a few occasions, I don't like seeing repetition of the party line. It's just dull.

As to the Telegraph, they've been shown to be toothless and irrelevant, the claims were shot down and in fact it allowed Clegg to show that he's lost out on paying more than he received!

ChristinaD said...

Double whammy for me. PB.com went down and then my internet server suffered severe problems and left me offline completely.
What is the situation with the main PB.com site now tonight?

ukpaul said...

The leaflets could indeed be big but it's one of those things where you just know that people are going to get one of their own doing the same thing. Result, score draw.

ChristinaD said...

"The leaflets could indeed be big but it's one of those things where you just know that people are going to get one of their own doing the same thing. Result, score draw.2

ukpaul, we are talking about targeted leaflets going out across the UK to some of the most vulnerable in the electorate and frightening them with outright lies to try and gain their vote. That is about as nasty as it gets in our political system. And just remind me of the party that discovered the electorate benefit of finding a local scare story of this kind to use in their campaigns?

Witan said...

UKPaul so I 'don't get it' because my view of the debate is different to yours?

Have you developed a god complex or something? Or have you got carried away by Cleggomania?

Let me keep it simple. I do not agree with your opinion. Cameron won this one, not by a lot but a win nonetheless.

Clegg was new but is rather like those shiny toys all kids want for Christmas which by new year are far less favoured and look a little 'tired'.

Brown is Brown, and if you think he won, I worry for you.

Kristin said...

Main site back by the looks of it.

ukpaul said...

Witan - so you ignore polls, that's okay then. Just don't start whinging when the actual poll comes out because it doesn't match your views.

I despise Brown and what he stands for but he won the debate (not gaining the most support, note) because he was solid throughout and he will have enervated his support. I don't know whether he can start to improve it but it's better than the opposite, as happened last time.

ChristinaD - and I agree, but I hope that labour can't counter with something similar.