Saturday, 31 July 2010

Hungary: pre-race

Well, short odds, but a winning tip is always better than a losing one. As it happened, Red Bull were miles ahead of the rest, with Vettel a full four-tenths faster than Webber. Petrov did tremendously well to get 7th, ahead of Kubica. I was surprised Button failed to make Q3, but there we are.

It’s worth emphasising just how much faster the Red Bulls are than everyone else. Alonso (3rd) was more than a second behind Vettel. Barring accident or suchlike, I can’t see anything but a Red Bull victory, based on raw pace. However, Vettel has had poor starts, and the odd-side is cleaner and faster. It’s possible that Vettel will get passed by Alonso and Hamilton (5th).

Horner has said that at Hockenheim Vettel had a bit of oil on the clutch, accounting for his poor start.

Hungary’s a track where it’s hard but not impossible to pass. The weather forecast is for a sunny day.

The problem here, gambling-wise, is similar to qualifying. There are two clear frontrunners, with a strong third-placed chap. So the win and podium spots all seem to be sewn up.

I dislike straying from the main markets, but have decided to do so based on what’s happened recently at the starts. I’ve laid Vettel at 1.29 to lead lap 1. Not only has he had bad starts recently, the Ferraris and McLarens have had good starts and Alonso and Hamilton are on the clean side of the track.

I prefer winning driver/car and podium markets, but I couldn’t see anything else I considered value. Laying Webber for a podium had some appeal, but even if he gets passed by Hamilton, Massa and Alonso at the start he should have enough speed to pass [even on a circuit like Hungary]. Similarly, I considered backing Massa for a podium spot, but I can’t see him being allowed to finish ahead of Alonso or being quick enough to stay ahead of the Red Bulls.

So a single speculative tip: lay Vettel to lead lap 1 at 1.29. It will be interesting to see if he continues trying to drive the number 2 placed car (in this case his best friend Webber) towards the right hand wall. He’s done this at both previous races where he started pole, and both times lost the spot.

Unfortunately it is impossible to insert a lay (or back, in this case) for this sort of bet, so you end up all green. On the plus side, after a minute and a half of the race you’ll know where you stand.

Morris Dancer


Jamei said...

I did the same last time round, laying Vettel early at 1.26 to lead the first lap of Hockenheim. To my surprise odds lengthened to 1.44 by Saturday night and fell back again before the start. I was able to reduce some of my potential losses and of course made a tidy profit as Massa went through. I notice a similar thing has happened today and you can now back Vettel to lead the first lap tomorrow at 1.38 - of course you'll be need to be putting reasonable sums down to take advantage of this.

Morris Dancer said...

Although not playing with big money [being but a poor impoverished morris dancer], I've also noticed the lengthening odds. Undecided whether to reduce my exposure slightly.

Anyway, let's hope Vettel stalls on the grid so it becomes a question of how much rather than if we win :)

jamei said...

Down to 1.24 now - exactly the same movement pattern as last time.

Jamei said...

OK I've just layed Vettel for the win at 1.51. Even if he makes the first lap, he still has Webber and the car's reliablity to contend with. I don't think his record of converting polls to victories justifies such short odds.

Morris Dancer said...

Those are damned short odds. However, I think only Webber can thwart him (well, Webber and his own car). Any other driver will be so much slower Vettel will be able to pass them. Whilst tempting, I think I'll sit that one out.