Monday, 11 March 2013

Australia: Early Discussion

Testing is done and the new season awaits us. Who will be great and powerful in Oz? Idle musings, betting and tips all welcome in the comments thread.

At this early stage, I think that the starting grid could be enormously different to the final result. I think this because the cars are thought to be extremely close, meaning that a spectacular/poor qualifying lap could put a car out of position, which will be corrected during the length of a race. In addition, the tyres are thought to be softer than Softy Walter so some might end up cocking up their strategy.

At this stage I'm thinking that P2 might be the critical session, as that's when high fuel running tends to be done.

It's unlikely I'll be offering a qualifying tip due to the timezone being awkward, and the pre-qualifying piece will probably be before P3 rather than after it.

Morris Dancer


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Morris Dancer said...

Button's got a decent record (3 wins from the last 4 races, including from 2nd and 4th) so I may keep an eye on him after qualifying.

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Anonymous said...

With the obvious caveat that I'm betting blind at this stage, before any Oz practice sessions, I quite like the Top 6 finish market and a few more bookmakers have now put up their prices.

If Rosberg and his supposedly much improved Mercedes really are going to make a significant impression this season, one feels he has to do so from the start, on which basis I've backed him to finish top 6, best priced at 2.6(ie 1.6/1).

Conversely, I don't see Grosjean finishing in the top 6 at Melbourne and I've therefore had a small wager, seeking to lay him at 2.3, i.e. winning odds of 0.73/1 net of Betfair's commission if I'm proved right.

Peter from Putney

Morris Dancer said...

My early thoughts are that Button may qualify poorly but race well, and that Perez may do likewise.

Extremely hard to call at this stage, however.

Incidentally, I was watching a few videos on the BBC F1 site, and a couple of people picked Bottas as a potential surprise for the season. Hopefully, given your spread-betting, that proves to be the case.

Anonymous said...

Yes there's obviously a modest maximum limit which Bottas can achieve given the superior opposition and this is probably around the 50 point mark which I was hoping for in placing my BUY spread bet at 34 points that's to say a regular 1-3 points scored with an odd sprinkling of 3-4 points.

This first GP promises to be fascinating with maybe a couple of major surprises - I for one can't wait!

Peter from Putney

Nigel said...

Sitting on my hardwood bathroom floor, staring at the owls....
...I'm thinking the odds are two short for top 6 punts, bearing in mind the chances of a non finish screwing up the bet.

My other guess is that at least one of the top four/five teams will screw up badly with the tyres. But that doesn't help much.

Nigel said...

Red Bull look ominous after FP2.

Hamilton looked as though he might challenge Vettel's fastest time before he aborted his fast lap, and then set his time on the following lap on degraded tyres...

... unfortunately for everyone else, Vettel's fastest time was also set on the second lap of a run after traffic forced him to abort his first effort.

The Red Bull looks to be able to keep ahead of the rest on long runs, too.

There's always the possibility of rain for qualifying on Saturday, but the Bulls look fast enough to win from the second row of the grid.

The super soft does not look as though it will last long in the race on full fuel (8 - 10 laps), and after a few laps, the medium is as quick, if not quicker. Will make for some interesting strategy calls.

It might pay to start on the medium. It will certainly pay to save two sets of fresh mediums for the race.
If you're betting on the top 3 or top 6, keep a close eye on who burns through how many sets in qualifying (I don't think the Bulls will have a problem).