Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Malaysia: early discussion

This weekend we're off in Kuala Lumpur, where the medium and hard tyres will be used.

Will Red Bull be able to qualify as well on the medium compound? Will Lotus be able to make one fewer stop than everyone else? Will it rain? Will McLaren/Williams make some progress in the short space of time they have between the last race and the next?

I'll check nearer the time but right now it seems that rain is possible over the weekend. It's worth remembering that without rain the circuit is probably second only to Hungary in its unlikelihood to have a safety car (flat, very wide circuit with lots of run-off).

Comments, thoughts, predictions, tips and so forth all welcome in the comments.

Morris Dancer


Anonymous said...

Morris -

I'll forgive you for opening a new thread and thereby confining my wise words last night to the history bin.

It may however be worth reiterating (and updating) my final sentence which shows the extent to which the betting markets appear to have made up their minds about the drivers' differing prospects after just one race:
The bookies already consider it a three horse race, with Hamilton in fourth place yet almost disappearing off the radar screen at 14/1.

Meanwhile poor old Jenson can be backed with Betfair at odds of more than 33/1 net of comm'n.

Peter from Putney

Anonymous said...

Jenson won't be anywhere unless the race has rain and to win the race he probably needs rain in both the race and qualifying.

Otherwise it probably is another three horse race and I half expect Kimi to pull it off again.


Morris Dancer said...

Sorry :p

Hmm. I think they may be reading too much into the first race. Malaysia's a pretty different circuit, and whilst Ferrari started the last season with a dog of a car that didn't stop them from developing it to a potential title-taker (I don't anticipate McLaren doing that because Perez is inexperienced and Button's fussy).

Hamilton and maybe Rosberg could yet feature in a tussle for the title.

I'm not making any bets (beyond the little pre-season ones) on the titles just yet. I may wait until the end of the initial fly-away part of the season.

Morris Dancer said...

Hey, Eek.

Rain would seem to be McLaren's only hope.

However, it's possible that a dry qualifying and initially dry race could still be won by McLaren if they have both good wet pace (probable) and make better strategic calls than their rivals (possible, as front-runners are less prone to taking risks whereas a McLaren in 12th isn't risking much but has much to gain).

Anonymous said...

Morris -

My comments and the betting odds I quoted (Lewis 14/1, Jenson 33/1) related to the entire season ,NOT to the Malaysian GP.

Peter from Putney.

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Peter said...

Following his very comfortable win in Melbourne, Raikkonen appears to be good value at evens with BetVictor for a podium finish next weekend.

Morris Dancer said...

Hey, Peter (not sure if you're a new Peter, but welcome to commenting here if you're new).

I'm not so sure.

Thunderstorms are possible for both qualifying and race day, and it'll be a different circuit, with different tyres (medium and hard) and difference surface. I'd be wary of making such a short odds bet at this time.

Peter said...

Morris - no, it's me ... the original article. I decided I might as well use my Google (ie Blogger registration), which for some reason they've truncated to show just my first name.

I take your point re possible rain in Malaysia, but Kimi is clearly one of the top 6 drivers and probably top 3 right now so I view evens for a podium finish as being very good value. Of course one could wait to see how he fares in practice, but if he does well I doubt this bet will bew priced at any more than 4/6.

Morris Dancer said...

I don't doubt Raikkonen, but we can't assume on the basis of Australia alone that the Lotus will be the top car this year (or in Malaysia specifically).

Peter said...

But he doesn't have to be in the top car ..... I'm betting on him gaining a podium place.

On the admittedly limited evidence so far, I don't see more than two other drivers at most (ie Vettel & Alonso) finishing ahead of him.

I'm also tempted to have a bet on Grosjean making a top 6 finish - his car and his own ability suggest that he should be there or thereabouts although odds of around 6/4 aren't overly generous so I'll probably hold back in the hope of getting on closer to 2/1.

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No luck as yet (yesterday evening 'wheels were turning' so hopefully it'll be done today).

I don't want the whole season blighted by the higher-than-last-year level of spam, so hopefully we can get this sorted shortly.

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