Friday, 22 March 2013

Malaysia: pre-qualifying

First off, a service announcement. As will have been noticed, there's a significant increase in spam comments this year compared to last. I don't have the ability to delete these myself, at the time of writing, but am hoping to acquire it. With luck, this will be in the next day or two, but there's a three week gap to China so I should have it by then.

It turns out that Webber's bad start was at least partly due to an ECU (electronic box thingy) that McLaren provide to all teams failing. This is a very rare failure and they've apologised to Red Bull:

Rain is possible for qualifying and the race, and the tyres used will be medium and hard. It's worth remembering that without rain Malaysia is very unlikely to see a safety car because the track is wide and there are tons of run-off areas.

Both practice sessions were dry.

P1 saw Webber fastest, followed by Raikkonen and then Vettel. Alonso, Rosberg and Sutil were next, with Massa, Di Resta, Hamilton and Grosjean rounding out the top 10.

P2 had Raikkonen top, with Vettel second, and the Ferraris of Massa and Alonso next. Webber, Grosjean, Rosberg, Di Resta, Hamilton and Sutil finish off the top 10.

At this stage Raikkonen looks good, as do the Ferraris and Red Bulls. It seems Force India are continuing to punch above their weight and the McLarens remain rubbish (11/13 and 11/12).

P3 is from 5am to 6am UK time, and qualifying starts at 8am, so I won't be offering a tip on that. At the time of writing a thunderstorm is slightly odds-on. If you believe that then you may wish to consider a McLaren bet, as their car appeared more competitive in the wet last week.

Morris Dancer


Morris Dancer said...

Correction: it seems P2 was partly dry, partly wet. Raikkonen was fastest in the rain too.

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Peter said...

Morris -

I wondered whether you'd been watching the same event after reading this headline on Yahoo! Sports this morning:

"Kimi Raikkonen finished on top of the timesheets after rain blighted free practice two of the Malaysian Grand Prix."

Anyway P1 & P2 simply provided more evidence of just how strong Raikonnen is looking right now.

At this early stage of the season I am playing safe and I continue to be surprised by the huge discrepancies in the odds offered by bookmakers, even on some of the major F1 betting markets - a sure sign of the lack of liquidity compared with the likes of football, etc where often it's not possible to slip a Rizla cigarette paper between the prices offered by the top 6 or so bookies.

Take for instance the "Podium Finish" market where the odds for Raikkonen vary between a miserable 0.35/1 and a reasonably generous 0.85/1 ..... thereby representing a 143% better return! Unsurprisingly I've availed myself of the latter.

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Morris Dancer said...

Mr. Putney, I didn't watch it or even listen to it. I skimmed a race report and must've skipped the bit about rain. [I was a bit pushed for time this morning, so didn't check as thoroughly as I should've done].

Did you back Raikkonen on the spreads? Just checked, and the 162 he was now seems pretty good (that's now 137 from 18 races).

Could be rain for qualifying and the race. I'll wait, as usual, until after qualifying for any race tips.

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Peter said...

"Did you back Raikkonen on the spreads?"

I wish! No - I SOLD Vettel at an average price of 247.5 points and BOUGHT Bottas at 34 points, both of which I'm now rather regretting.

If I am able get out at quits, I'll be looking to make an early exit from one or other or both these bets.

Morris Dancer said...

Your Vettel bet might not prove a failure... he and Webber have been bitching about the tyres. If Red Bull has a particularly bad degradation rate then Raikkonen, the Ferraris and maybe others could beat them regularly.

Williams had a shocking first race, but Maldonado reckons they've made significant progress already.

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Nigel said...

Anything much more than 50/50 odds for rain suggests that laying Vettel around evens for pole might be a decent value bet ?

Morris Dancer said...

That could be true, actually, although with that line of thinking you *might* prefer to lay him to be top 3 in qualifying.

Nigel said...

Worked for me (layed at 1.88; backed at 3.3) - I hope anyone following closed it out somewhere between 3 and 3.5 (readily available for quite some time when it started raining) ?

Nigel said...

Great timing from Vettel for pole - I'm assuming the car isn't quite a second quicker than everyone else...

Morris Dancer said...

Not sure about a race bet, so I'm going to probably wait until after watching the highlights to decide.