Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Monaco: early discussion

Pirelli are to change their tyre compounds for Canada, which is the race after Monaco: http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/108038.html

Now, the difference to the pecking order obviously depends on how big the change is, but here’s how I see it playing out:
Winners - Red Bull, Mercedes
Losers - Lotus, Ferrari

If I’m right and Pirelli overcook the changes we could see a very tight, interesting title race devolve into a Red Bull procession. I really hope that doesn’t happen, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

During the Spain-Monaco interval I backed Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 1.9, because I was green for Ferrari and Lotus and wanted to cover that possibility. I also put small sums (NB this is not a tip) on Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco.

Although 4 stops in Spain was excessive it’s worth pointing out that every team has the same tyres and if Lotus have made theirs work very well then fiddling with the compounds now is unfairly penalising them. For all Red Bull’s bleating they are leading both title races.

As Gary Anderson wrote: “In 2011, Vettel won the Spanish Grand Prix. He also made four pit stops and there were 77 pit stops in the entire race. There were no complaints from Red Bull then.”

However, since then the FIA has stated that changes to the tyres can only occur to help safety (in this case reducing the risk of the dramatic delamination  a few drivers have seen). So, with luck, this will minimise the impact upon the pecking order.

It’s also been announced that in 2015 McLaren will switch to Honda engines: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204

Many BBC chaps reckoned that Mercedes could be the team to watch in Monaco, as the third sector of Spain is apparently a very good guide to Monaco pace and the Silver Arrows were fastest in that sector.

Your thoughts, tips and insights are all welcome in the comments below. (NB P1 and P2 are on Thursday rather than Friday, as is the norm for Monaco).

Morris Dancer


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David Cotton said...

I can see Monaco being good for Mercedes and, at a push, Williams (at least compared to their recent performances).

For TV spectators, it will be fairly uninteresting as usual. It's the one race in the year I really do not mind missing.

Any true sport would have removed Monaco from the calender decades ago. But the business side of F1 demands it.

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Peter said...

In my initial "early bird" search for value at Monaco, I've placed two modest bets.

First I've backed Di Resta for a top 6 finish at odds of 2.95/1 net with Betfair, compared with the major bookies offerings at half those odds.

Second I've backed Vettel to win the "Hat Trick"(i.e.win the GP, gain Pole and achieve the fastest lap) at 18/1 with Skybet. As the inevitable race favourite, this looks like more of a 12/1 shot to me.

I'd like to back Perez to finish in the points (i.e. top 10) - but I'll hold my fire for now in the hope of obtaining evens, compared with Hills' current best odds of 0.85/1.

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Morris Dancer said...

Christ, this place is spam-ridden.

I hope it doesn't persist. I'd prefer not to move elsewhere, but this level of spam is insufferable.

Di Resta's a maybe for me, but I'd not back your Vettel tip. Perez looks interesting. Here's the Spain sector 3 times, apparently a good guide to Monaco:

Perez is 4th, behind only the Mercedes and Vettel.

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Peter said...

I seems that I'm unlikely to be able to get evens on Perez finishing in the points so I've taken Ladbrokes' 10/11 this a.m. - a slight improvement on yesterday's best available odds of 0.85/1.

Morris Dancer said...

Not quite enough to tempt me, but it looks a decent bet.

Regarding the site, I don't want to start my own blog but if spam levels persist I won't have much choice.

I really don't want to break up articles for a weekend over two different blogs. What I might try is dual-posting these 4 articles (ie with betting implications) here and on a potential new blog and also use the new one for ruminations/news.

Thoughts on this would be very welcome.

Peter said...

Morris - I think you should stick with PB2, at least for now - hopefully these seemingly Polish spammers will get bored and go away. I assume you don't have the wherewithal to delete these unwelcome comments?

Morris Dancer said...

I lack the ability to block/remove such comments, I'm afraid.

I'd much rather stay here. Less hassle for me making a new blog, plus I've posted here regularly since 2009 and would prefer not to move.

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