Kudos (and lots of money) to anyone who predicted Alguesuari would top P3. Admittedly, he did it by being one of only two drivers who went sailing around Lake Suzuka in the rain (the other being Glock).
The rain only intensified, and I woke at 6.45am to discover qualifying was delayed, then cancelled until tomorrow (2am UK time). So, this puts me in a tricky position. To bet on qualifying is to go without the handy guide of P3, and to bet on the race requires either getting up at around 2.30-3am to see Q3, or being brave/stupid/brilliantly insightful and betting pre-qualifying.
Weather could be the key factor. If it’s very bright (unlikely) a Vettel/Webber duel seems likely, as I stated in my first pre-qualifying piece. Presently the forecast seems to be that qualifying will be clear but damp from the yet-to-drain rain, and the race dry.
In the last 3 qualifying sessions Webber’s beaten Vettel in Belgium, been beaten by him in Singapore and beaten him in Italy. Past form in Suzuka is hard to assess because last year Webber didn’t start qualifying.
I’ve decided to back Webber at 5 [he’s now 4.8, and I’d take anything over 4]. Set up a hedge at evens. He’s been roughly Vettel’s equal in qualifying generally, and in P1 was less than a tenth of a second off the pace. With the weather, there’s also the possibility of Vettel going off [and he’s been a bit suspect in qualifying recently, with a surprise second in Singapore and a frankly rubbish sixth in Italy.
Unless it’s wet indeed, I still think a Red Bull front row likeliest.
I’m undecided about a pre-race post. I’d like to write one, but I’d rather not get up at 2-3am. Stupid bloody Japanese weather.
Morris Dancer
Saturday, 9 October 2010
Friday, 8 October 2010
Suzuka: pre-qualifying
Now we really are at the business end of the season. This weekend, F1 is in Suzuka. Inclusive, there are 4 races left, or 3 if Korea isn’t ready (a real possibility). After Korea (which is meant to be next) we have the fantastic Interlagos in Brazil, and then the glitzy but dull Abu Dhabi.
Even at this late stage, all five contenders have a real chance. The McLarens desperately need big points to stay in the hunt, and Hamilton could do with not recording yet another DNF. Alonso’s got the momentum, and the smug bugger has named himself favourite [something Webber has refused to do].
I’m writing this not just pre-qualifying but pre-P3, which occurs at 3am. So, this is a predictive article rather than a tipping one [I won’t be betting myself].
P1 saw Vettel, Webber, Kubica followed by Sutil, Hamilton, Barrichello, Hulkenberg, Schumacher, Heidfeld and Rosberg. Vettel was less than one-tenth up on Webber, who was a full half-second ahead of Kubica.
P2 saw Vettel lead a Red Bull 1-2, with Kubica third, then Alonso, Massa, Button, Petrov, Schumacher, Sutil and Hulkenberg. Vettel was four-tenths up on his best friend Webber, who was three-tenths faster than Kubica.
P3 is the session that counts, but at this stage it looks like a Red Bull front row. Given the closeness of P2, a Webber pole is entirely possible, though a Vettel one is more likely. Be fascinating to see if Kubica can snag a third or fourth. He’s a great driver and has really punched above his weight during the season. With a good car under him he could be a champion.
Interesting to see Schumacher both beating Rosberg and being in the top 10 in both sessions so far. If he replicated that in qualifying it would be a nice morale booster.
Alonso and Massa were 13th and 11th in P1, but I think their 4th and 5th in P2 is likely to be more representative of their pace. McLaren may struggle to beat the prancing horse or Red Bulls, and if they do their challenge could be all but over. Still, races are bloody unpredictable (cf Turkey).
So, here’s my prediction for qualifying: Vettel to get pole, joined by his team mate on the front row. Then Alonso and Kubica and on row three Massa and Hamilton. A Webber pole would not be a shock at all, but is less likely, I feel, than a Vettel one (that said, Vettel has been off the boil recently).
Qualifying starts tomorrow at 6am.
Morris Dancer
Even at this late stage, all five contenders have a real chance. The McLarens desperately need big points to stay in the hunt, and Hamilton could do with not recording yet another DNF. Alonso’s got the momentum, and the smug bugger has named himself favourite [something Webber has refused to do].
I’m writing this not just pre-qualifying but pre-P3, which occurs at 3am. So, this is a predictive article rather than a tipping one [I won’t be betting myself].
P1 saw Vettel, Webber, Kubica followed by Sutil, Hamilton, Barrichello, Hulkenberg, Schumacher, Heidfeld and Rosberg. Vettel was less than one-tenth up on Webber, who was a full half-second ahead of Kubica.
P2 saw Vettel lead a Red Bull 1-2, with Kubica third, then Alonso, Massa, Button, Petrov, Schumacher, Sutil and Hulkenberg. Vettel was four-tenths up on his best friend Webber, who was three-tenths faster than Kubica.
P3 is the session that counts, but at this stage it looks like a Red Bull front row. Given the closeness of P2, a Webber pole is entirely possible, though a Vettel one is more likely. Be fascinating to see if Kubica can snag a third or fourth. He’s a great driver and has really punched above his weight during the season. With a good car under him he could be a champion.
Interesting to see Schumacher both beating Rosberg and being in the top 10 in both sessions so far. If he replicated that in qualifying it would be a nice morale booster.
Alonso and Massa were 13th and 11th in P1, but I think their 4th and 5th in P2 is likely to be more representative of their pace. McLaren may struggle to beat the prancing horse or Red Bulls, and if they do their challenge could be all but over. Still, races are bloody unpredictable (cf Turkey).
So, here’s my prediction for qualifying: Vettel to get pole, joined by his team mate on the front row. Then Alonso and Kubica and on row three Massa and Hamilton. A Webber pole would not be a shock at all, but is less likely, I feel, than a Vettel one (that said, Vettel has been off the boil recently).
Qualifying starts tomorrow at 6am.
Morris Dancer
Sunday, 26 September 2010
Singapore: post-race analysis
A bad qualifying prediction was followed by a bad race. Alonso and Vettel were a class apart, aided slightly by McLaren showing all the strategic brilliance of Crassus at Carrhae.
On qualifying, briefly, I think I know why I’ve been getting it wrong lately. Earlier in the season, I spotted Webber’s improved qualifying, and backed him a few times and generally did ok. I’ve become a bit stuck in a rut expecting Vettel to do well and ignored Alonso’s recent excellence.
The race was rain-free, and had a number of safety car appearances. It was processional rather than thrilling, and somewhat notable for the way in which I got everything wrong. Vettel suddenly decided to accelerate at the start, instead of putting the handbrake on, neither McLaren was anywhere near the leading pair, and neither Hamilton nor Button ever had a chance of winning. Meanwhile, Vettel decided the time for driving in the style of Dastardly & Muttley was over, and drove extremely well and consistently for second, behind Alonso.
There were a number of crashes, including Bruno Senna, who got P3 yellow flagged at the end and slowed both McLarens as they exited the pits. Kubica had a great final few laps, passing numerous cars to finish 7th despite pitting twice.
Massa climbed from last to 10th, and would’ve done better had the first safety car not compromised his strategy of pitting almost immediately. Barrichello didn’t feature much in the TV coverage but did get an unexpectedly good 6th.
Hamilton’s DNF (did not finish) may prove critical. He was 4th at the time, behind Webber and ahead of Button. He’d just about passed Webber, but didn’t leave the Red Bull enough room. Webber had nowhere to go except into Hamilton, ending Hamilton’s race.
Bit of a shocker of a weekend for me. I just checked my account and found that almost all my 2.5 lay for McLaren to win actually got matched. So, undeservingly, I made almost no loss on that tip, but obviously got Vettel wrong in qualifying and in the race. [I must admit I’m staggered anybody matched that, but that’s the point of hedging].
For the title, things are still evenly poised, but the momentum is clearly with the world’s grumpiest man. Here are the contenders:
Webber 202
Alonso 191
Hamilton 182
Vettel 181
Button 177
And the Constructors’:
Red Bull 383
McLaren 359
Ferrari 316
Webber is still in a strong position, perhaps the strongest. Hamilton’s had a few DNFs lately, and I imagine they’ll end up costing him the title. Vettel’s excellent second is of great importance for two reasons. Firstly, he’s still in the fight. Secondly, because of that Red Bull will be unable to line up clearly behind Webber. If Vettel had smashed into a wall, Webber would be 39 points ahead. With so few races left the team may have had to back the Aussie wholeheartedly. As with McLaren, Red Bull must continue to try and back both drivers, whereas Alonso is clearly Ferrari’s only hope.
Were it not for Hamilton’s retirement the Constructors’ would still be very close. As it is, Red Bull are looking decent favourites.
The next race is Japan, in a fortnight. P3 ends at 4am, and qualifying starts at 6am. Undecided as to whether I’ll do a pre-qualifying post containing tips.
I’ve really enjoyed this season from a fan’s perspective, but my tipping has been pretty woeful. I’ll wait and see how the final few races pan out before deciding whether to do a similar series of posts in the 2011 season.
Morris Dancer
On qualifying, briefly, I think I know why I’ve been getting it wrong lately. Earlier in the season, I spotted Webber’s improved qualifying, and backed him a few times and generally did ok. I’ve become a bit stuck in a rut expecting Vettel to do well and ignored Alonso’s recent excellence.
The race was rain-free, and had a number of safety car appearances. It was processional rather than thrilling, and somewhat notable for the way in which I got everything wrong. Vettel suddenly decided to accelerate at the start, instead of putting the handbrake on, neither McLaren was anywhere near the leading pair, and neither Hamilton nor Button ever had a chance of winning. Meanwhile, Vettel decided the time for driving in the style of Dastardly & Muttley was over, and drove extremely well and consistently for second, behind Alonso.
There were a number of crashes, including Bruno Senna, who got P3 yellow flagged at the end and slowed both McLarens as they exited the pits. Kubica had a great final few laps, passing numerous cars to finish 7th despite pitting twice.
Massa climbed from last to 10th, and would’ve done better had the first safety car not compromised his strategy of pitting almost immediately. Barrichello didn’t feature much in the TV coverage but did get an unexpectedly good 6th.
Hamilton’s DNF (did not finish) may prove critical. He was 4th at the time, behind Webber and ahead of Button. He’d just about passed Webber, but didn’t leave the Red Bull enough room. Webber had nowhere to go except into Hamilton, ending Hamilton’s race.
Bit of a shocker of a weekend for me. I just checked my account and found that almost all my 2.5 lay for McLaren to win actually got matched. So, undeservingly, I made almost no loss on that tip, but obviously got Vettel wrong in qualifying and in the race. [I must admit I’m staggered anybody matched that, but that’s the point of hedging].
For the title, things are still evenly poised, but the momentum is clearly with the world’s grumpiest man. Here are the contenders:
Webber 202
Alonso 191
Hamilton 182
Vettel 181
Button 177
And the Constructors’:
Red Bull 383
McLaren 359
Ferrari 316
Webber is still in a strong position, perhaps the strongest. Hamilton’s had a few DNFs lately, and I imagine they’ll end up costing him the title. Vettel’s excellent second is of great importance for two reasons. Firstly, he’s still in the fight. Secondly, because of that Red Bull will be unable to line up clearly behind Webber. If Vettel had smashed into a wall, Webber would be 39 points ahead. With so few races left the team may have had to back the Aussie wholeheartedly. As with McLaren, Red Bull must continue to try and back both drivers, whereas Alonso is clearly Ferrari’s only hope.
Were it not for Hamilton’s retirement the Constructors’ would still be very close. As it is, Red Bull are looking decent favourites.
The next race is Japan, in a fortnight. P3 ends at 4am, and qualifying starts at 6am. Undecided as to whether I’ll do a pre-qualifying post containing tips.
I’ve really enjoyed this season from a fan’s perspective, but my tipping has been pretty woeful. I’ll wait and see how the final few races pan out before deciding whether to do a similar series of posts in the 2011 season.
Morris Dancer
Saturday, 25 September 2010
Singapore: pre-race
Well, Vettel made one mistake all weekend, and brilliantly did it in Q3. Alonso got pole, with Vettel second. Then it’s Hamilton, Button, Webber, Barrichello, Rosberg, Kubica, Schumacher and Kobayashi.
Massa had a gearbox failure in Q1, and starts last.
I must admit I’d never have backed Alonso, so congratulations to Mr. Eagles on the sister site for getting that right.
As of 6pm on Saturday, the weather forecasts aren’t that helpful, with showers possible. So, they need to be considered, but might well not occur at all.
Hmmm. Recent starts have shown a slight pattern. McLarens have great starts, Ferrari ok starts, and Red Bull have developed a habit of leaving the handbrake on.
I checked the two most recent races, and Hamilton and Alonso both have a win and a third place. Last year, Vettel got 4th.
Also worth considering is Massa. He starts last, and the circuit isn’t great for overtaking. However, the Ferrari is a very fast car, and he may opt to get a new engine (he can’t be demoted to 34th for exceeding the 8 engine limit). With a very early or very late pit stop, he might yet spring a surprise.
Had a quick look, and see little value with Massa. He’s only 1.8 to get points, and on a street circuit with many barriers, possible rain and little run-off that’s not very appealing.
Of more interest is the 5.7 to back McLaren for victory. Starting 3rd and 4th, with possible rain, they may go for a split strategy in the event of precipitation, and Button showed earlier this year a very good feel for on-off rain conditions. In addition, I think it likely one or both Britons will pass Vettel at the start.
I also think it’s worth laying Vettel for a podium at 1.46. He’s had poor starts recently and the two cars behind him have had good starts. Of the last 3 races he’s gone backwards in 2 of them.
I’ll only be hedging the McLaren bet (at 2.5).
Found this a bit tricky to call. On the other hand, I was pretty confident in Vettel’s pole until Q3, so maybe my doubts will prove more accurate.
With any luck, the race will be a cracker, and we’ll finish ahead.
Morris Dancer
Massa had a gearbox failure in Q1, and starts last.
I must admit I’d never have backed Alonso, so congratulations to Mr. Eagles on the sister site for getting that right.
As of 6pm on Saturday, the weather forecasts aren’t that helpful, with showers possible. So, they need to be considered, but might well not occur at all.
Hmmm. Recent starts have shown a slight pattern. McLarens have great starts, Ferrari ok starts, and Red Bull have developed a habit of leaving the handbrake on.
I checked the two most recent races, and Hamilton and Alonso both have a win and a third place. Last year, Vettel got 4th.
Also worth considering is Massa. He starts last, and the circuit isn’t great for overtaking. However, the Ferrari is a very fast car, and he may opt to get a new engine (he can’t be demoted to 34th for exceeding the 8 engine limit). With a very early or very late pit stop, he might yet spring a surprise.
Had a quick look, and see little value with Massa. He’s only 1.8 to get points, and on a street circuit with many barriers, possible rain and little run-off that’s not very appealing.
Of more interest is the 5.7 to back McLaren for victory. Starting 3rd and 4th, with possible rain, they may go for a split strategy in the event of precipitation, and Button showed earlier this year a very good feel for on-off rain conditions. In addition, I think it likely one or both Britons will pass Vettel at the start.
I also think it’s worth laying Vettel for a podium at 1.46. He’s had poor starts recently and the two cars behind him have had good starts. Of the last 3 races he’s gone backwards in 2 of them.
I’ll only be hedging the McLaren bet (at 2.5).
Found this a bit tricky to call. On the other hand, I was pretty confident in Vettel’s pole until Q3, so maybe my doubts will prove more accurate.
With any luck, the race will be a cracker, and we’ll finish ahead.
Morris Dancer
Singapore: pre-qualifying
In the run-up to this race, McLaren were sounding bullish about improvements to their car after Hungary. They’ve had pretty good weekends at Spa and Monza [although only one car finished each race with a win and a second place] and will be very keen to see if they can match the Red Bulls in the latter part of the season.
They also raised the issue of whether the new loading tests on the flexi-wing and floor of the Red Bull would damage its performance. This was hard to tell at the last two races because they followed a perfect circuit for Red Bull (Hungary) and Spa and Monza are not suited to the Red Bull. So, it was difficult to tell whether the performance drop-off was due to wing and floor alterations or just the natural contrast between a circuit the car loves and circuits the car loathes.
Pre-practice weather reports suggest a likelihood of black clouds, heavy rain and lightning storms throughout the entire weekend. Sounds like fun.
P1 was damp, and as such, not much use for learning who’s quickest. However, here’s the top 10: Webber, Schumacher, Sutil, Vettel, Alguesuari, Button, Liuzzi, Buemi, Kubica and Petrov.
P2 was dry (mostly), but this session is the one where heavy fuel runs are done after a period of lighter fuel driving, so the times don’t necessarily reflect real pace. However, it is notable that the Red Bulls were miles ahead of their competition, Vettel 0.6s ahead of Webber, who was 0.4s ahead of Button, Alonso and Hamilton, who were all very close to one another. Following them were Barrichello, Massa, Rosberg, Kubica and Schumacher.
P3 was disappointing, because the end was ruined by the pointless HRT of Senna yellow flagging the session and preventing almost everyone (save the Red Bulls and Alonso) getting in proper laps. The order was Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, Massa, Rosberg, Webber, Hulkenberg, Kubica, Sutil and Buemi.
Weather forecasts suggest a one in three chance of rain showers. My view is that if it’s dry Webber has no chance, despite him alone having a fresh engine. Likewise, Massa and Button, barring wet weather freakiness, have no chance of pole in my opinion.
As has been the case recently, there are three chaps I believe have a good chance. Favourite is Vettel, then Hamilton, then Alonso. A problem is that Hamilton’s early timesheet-topping time was beaten by Vettel and Alonso (by 0.25s and 0.1s roughly) on a track that was rapidly drying and therefore naturally faster. Hamilton never really got a flying lap, yet still came third overall. It’s my judgement that he was better than Alonso and equal or just slower than Vettel.
It’s extremely difficult for me to call. I do think Vettel is clear favourite for victory at evens, but there is no comparable Hamilton time. I’m going to tip Vettel at evens for pole.
Morris Dancer
They also raised the issue of whether the new loading tests on the flexi-wing and floor of the Red Bull would damage its performance. This was hard to tell at the last two races because they followed a perfect circuit for Red Bull (Hungary) and Spa and Monza are not suited to the Red Bull. So, it was difficult to tell whether the performance drop-off was due to wing and floor alterations or just the natural contrast between a circuit the car loves and circuits the car loathes.
Pre-practice weather reports suggest a likelihood of black clouds, heavy rain and lightning storms throughout the entire weekend. Sounds like fun.
P1 was damp, and as such, not much use for learning who’s quickest. However, here’s the top 10: Webber, Schumacher, Sutil, Vettel, Alguesuari, Button, Liuzzi, Buemi, Kubica and Petrov.
P2 was dry (mostly), but this session is the one where heavy fuel runs are done after a period of lighter fuel driving, so the times don’t necessarily reflect real pace. However, it is notable that the Red Bulls were miles ahead of their competition, Vettel 0.6s ahead of Webber, who was 0.4s ahead of Button, Alonso and Hamilton, who were all very close to one another. Following them were Barrichello, Massa, Rosberg, Kubica and Schumacher.
P3 was disappointing, because the end was ruined by the pointless HRT of Senna yellow flagging the session and preventing almost everyone (save the Red Bulls and Alonso) getting in proper laps. The order was Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, Massa, Rosberg, Webber, Hulkenberg, Kubica, Sutil and Buemi.
Weather forecasts suggest a one in three chance of rain showers. My view is that if it’s dry Webber has no chance, despite him alone having a fresh engine. Likewise, Massa and Button, barring wet weather freakiness, have no chance of pole in my opinion.
As has been the case recently, there are three chaps I believe have a good chance. Favourite is Vettel, then Hamilton, then Alonso. A problem is that Hamilton’s early timesheet-topping time was beaten by Vettel and Alonso (by 0.25s and 0.1s roughly) on a track that was rapidly drying and therefore naturally faster. Hamilton never really got a flying lap, yet still came third overall. It’s my judgement that he was better than Alonso and equal or just slower than Vettel.
It’s extremely difficult for me to call. I do think Vettel is clear favourite for victory at evens, but there is no comparable Hamilton time. I’m going to tip Vettel at evens for pole.
Morris Dancer
Sunday, 12 September 2010
Monza: post-race analysis
A very interesting race, more tense than exciting, from my perspective. A very mixed bag regarding the tips. Button didn’t win, but came close enough to be laid. Alonso did fail to lead lap 1, so that came off. Hamilton’s kamikaze move on Massa meant a podium was impossible for him.
The tension was enormous at the front for the first 30 odd laps. Button got the jump on Alonso at the start, which also saw Hamilton pass Webber (who went backwards rapidly, to about 9th). However, Hamilton’s cack-handed efforts with Massa saw his race end on lap 1. Button managed to keep Alonso behind him until the pit stops. McLaren moronically telegraphed their stop, Ferrari responded, held out a lap longer, and passed Button.
The Red Bulls had excitement of a different kind. Webber slipped to 9th from the start and then fought through the field, eventually passing Hulkenberg, despite some chicanery, to get 6th.
Vettel’s race was weird. He was 7th to Webber’s 8th, but suffered a temporary engine problem (during which he let Webber past). He then kept racing, and had his pit stop on the last lap to achieve a surprisingly good 4th.
The race was incredibly important for the titles, most especially the Drivers’. After Monza, here are the top 5:
Webber 187
Hamilton 182
Alonso 166
Button 165
Vettel 163
With 25 points for a win, it’s incredibly tight. Webber really is in pole position, as the next 5 tracks are more Red Bull-friendly than Spa and Monza. Hamilton and Webber are a bit ahead of the other three, but it’s too close to call.
For the Constructors’, it’s also very close, but will probably be a Red Bull win, with McLaren the closest challenger:
Red Bull 350
McLaren 347
Ferrari 290
A strange weekend. My pole tip was really off, first time for a while it’s been miles off, and I managed to be ahead on the race. Overall, with laying, a small profit was had. Without laying, it would’ve been red.
There aren’t many races left now, just five (assuming Korea goes ahead). Spa and Monza saw Webber and Hamilton pull ahead, but the other three contenders have cut the gap down again.
Morris Dancer
The tension was enormous at the front for the first 30 odd laps. Button got the jump on Alonso at the start, which also saw Hamilton pass Webber (who went backwards rapidly, to about 9th). However, Hamilton’s cack-handed efforts with Massa saw his race end on lap 1. Button managed to keep Alonso behind him until the pit stops. McLaren moronically telegraphed their stop, Ferrari responded, held out a lap longer, and passed Button.
The Red Bulls had excitement of a different kind. Webber slipped to 9th from the start and then fought through the field, eventually passing Hulkenberg, despite some chicanery, to get 6th.
Vettel’s race was weird. He was 7th to Webber’s 8th, but suffered a temporary engine problem (during which he let Webber past). He then kept racing, and had his pit stop on the last lap to achieve a surprisingly good 4th.
The race was incredibly important for the titles, most especially the Drivers’. After Monza, here are the top 5:
Webber 187
Hamilton 182
Alonso 166
Button 165
Vettel 163
With 25 points for a win, it’s incredibly tight. Webber really is in pole position, as the next 5 tracks are more Red Bull-friendly than Spa and Monza. Hamilton and Webber are a bit ahead of the other three, but it’s too close to call.
For the Constructors’, it’s also very close, but will probably be a Red Bull win, with McLaren the closest challenger:
Red Bull 350
McLaren 347
Ferrari 290
A strange weekend. My pole tip was really off, first time for a while it’s been miles off, and I managed to be ahead on the race. Overall, with laying, a small profit was had. Without laying, it would’ve been red.
There aren’t many races left now, just five (assuming Korea goes ahead). Spa and Monza saw Webber and Hamilton pull ahead, but the other three contenders have cut the gap down again.
Morris Dancer
Saturday, 11 September 2010
Monza: pre-race
Blimey. I got back to discover not only was I enormously wrong, with Vettel sixth and my lay umatched, the entire top six seemed jumbled up.
Alonso snatched pole, with Button second, then Massa, Webber, Hamilton and Vettel. The top 10 was completed by Rosberg, Hulkenberg, Kubica and Barrichello.
Red Bull must hate Monza, it’s the first grid for ages when they haven’t been on the front row. Staggered Vettel wasn’t closer to pole. Next year, I’ll have to bear this in mind.
For the title race, this is tremendously exciting. The two strongest contenders are 4th and 5th, two slightly adrift are on the front row, with the third adrift fellow sixth. It looks like the race could be pretty tasty.
Caught up with a little of the BBC coverage, and it seems like Button’s gone for downforce over raw straight line speed, which could give him the advantage in breaking zones, for overtaking, and make it easier on his tyres. It certainly proved a better choice than Hamilton’s, which sees the title leader half a second down the road from Button.
The weather’s going to be nice and sunny, so the weather shouldn’t play a part.
I’ve decided to go for a trio of bets this time around. Firstly, I’ve laid Alonso to lead lap 1 at 1.46. I think both Button and Massa will be very keen to get ahead and stand a decent chance.
Secondly, I’ve backed Button for the win at 4.7. He was doing very well at the somewhat similar circuit at Spa, with a broken front wing, before Vettel wrecked his race. He’s got good pace, and lower downforce will make it easier on his tyre and afford him overtaking opportunities.
Lastly, I’ve backed Hamilton for a podium at 1.95. I imagine he’ll ice Webber on lap 1, and stands a decent chance of getting past Massa later on.
Unusually, hedging will be at a minimum. For the first lap leader, it’s not really possible/sensible, and Hamilton’s odds are so short for the podium you’d need to lay at 1.1 or suchlike.
Pretty shocked Vettel was so far down the road in qualifying. Let’s hope Button takes Alonso before the end of lap 1, and the McLarens have a great day out.
Morris Dancer
Alonso snatched pole, with Button second, then Massa, Webber, Hamilton and Vettel. The top 10 was completed by Rosberg, Hulkenberg, Kubica and Barrichello.
Red Bull must hate Monza, it’s the first grid for ages when they haven’t been on the front row. Staggered Vettel wasn’t closer to pole. Next year, I’ll have to bear this in mind.
For the title race, this is tremendously exciting. The two strongest contenders are 4th and 5th, two slightly adrift are on the front row, with the third adrift fellow sixth. It looks like the race could be pretty tasty.
Caught up with a little of the BBC coverage, and it seems like Button’s gone for downforce over raw straight line speed, which could give him the advantage in breaking zones, for overtaking, and make it easier on his tyres. It certainly proved a better choice than Hamilton’s, which sees the title leader half a second down the road from Button.
The weather’s going to be nice and sunny, so the weather shouldn’t play a part.
I’ve decided to go for a trio of bets this time around. Firstly, I’ve laid Alonso to lead lap 1 at 1.46. I think both Button and Massa will be very keen to get ahead and stand a decent chance.
Secondly, I’ve backed Button for the win at 4.7. He was doing very well at the somewhat similar circuit at Spa, with a broken front wing, before Vettel wrecked his race. He’s got good pace, and lower downforce will make it easier on his tyre and afford him overtaking opportunities.
Lastly, I’ve backed Hamilton for a podium at 1.95. I imagine he’ll ice Webber on lap 1, and stands a decent chance of getting past Massa later on.
Unusually, hedging will be at a minimum. For the first lap leader, it’s not really possible/sensible, and Hamilton’s odds are so short for the podium you’d need to lay at 1.1 or suchlike.
Pretty shocked Vettel was so far down the road in qualifying. Let’s hope Button takes Alonso before the end of lap 1, and the McLarens have a great day out.
Morris Dancer
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