2012 Mid-season Review Part 2

Before I get going with this article it's important to be aware that although there are many weeks between Hungary and Spa only two of those are used for working. The rest of the interval gives the teams a much needed break. So, whilst I fully expect upgrades for just about everyone they'll be roughly of the order you'd expect between two races.

Early this season McLaren was very tasty and the Ferrari was not so much a prancing horse as a lame duck. However, in the break between fly-aways and Europe McLaren failed to make headway whereas Ferrari had a great upgrade which has allowed it to be competitive ever since.

At the point we leave I think McLaren is the best qualifying car and possibly the best car in the race. Ferrari are not the fastest in the race (behind McLaren and Red Bull, and perhaps Lotus) but are aided by Alonso driving very well. Red Bull seem to have lost their edge somewhat, and Lotus remain a little behind in qualifying but (at times) highly competitive in the races. Raikkonen is still a title contender at this stage.

Down the order, Sauber have not suddenly become rubbish. Their poor performance in the race was because they remain woeful in qualifying and because Hungary makes overtaking stupidly hard they couldn't put their better race pace into effect and were stuck in a procession to mediocrity. Williams seem to have patchy form, but some potential, although one shudders to think of Maldonado's car insurance premium.

So, that's where we are.

In upgrade terms we actually have advanced knowledge of a DRS plus system Lotus will be seeking to take to Spa. Basically, you get two smaller inlets flanking the big one (the hole in the car immediately above the driver's head) which channel air in an aerodynamically advantageous way, boosting straight line speed. They tested it at Hockenheim and Hungary and it's expected to be ready for Spa. More details are available here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/19041743

Mercedes may be struggling somewhat with the car because of the DRS. Their system is a cut above everyone else's and channels air from the rear wing to the front wing, improving front end grip and improving performance when the system's active. However, this means there's a fundamental and significant divergence (more so than usual) between qualifying and race trim, and has made the car difficult to develop. There's more at the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/19064856

McLaren have also been working on a double DRS. They've said it isn't like the Lotus version, but I'd be surprised if it's akin to the Silver Arrow DRS, given their issues. It's also unclear whether or not it'll be used in racing this year: http://en.espnf1.com/mclaren/motorsport/story/86016.html

Another lower order team, Force India, are switching their developmental focus to 2013, which rather suggests they'll remain at the back of the midfield for the rest of this season: http://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/86212.html

It's hard to assess how well or badly individual teams will develop, but we can at least look, briefly, at the drivers, who should remain more or less consistent with their first half performance. I'll run through them in points order.

Alonso - best driver of the year by a distance. Professionally positive even when his car was a dog, calm when collecting small points tallies and seized his opportunities when they came up. I expect nothing to change in this regard.

Webber - after Alonso the most consistent driver of the year. He's shown good pace in addition to this, and is matching his young team mate. However, I do wonder whether team orders may come into play from Red Bull (and whether Webber would accept them or not).

Vettel - has been driving well, but has also been under a little pressure after his ultra-dominant 2011 season. The petulant radio transmission to his engineer in Hungary betrayed a sense of frustration. He will be a contender, but is less mentally tough than some of his rivals (I think) right now. Team orders, should they occur, are likely to assist him. (If Webber follows them).

Hamilton - I think his performance this year has been underrated. He's driven well, he's suffered some bad luck that wasn't anything to do with him (most notably the Spanish pole that wasn't and McLaren's comedy pit stops) and is on a much more even keel than last year. With a recent and very helpful upgrade for the McLaren I think he might be second favourite after Alonso.

Raikkonen - the last man in a realistic position to contend for the title, which is impressive given he's only just returned. His raw pace is very solid, and he's been consistently scoring in the races. He's also the highest placed driver not to have won a race. Raikkonen's a dark horse.

The key, though, is the development war. If Ferrari win clearly or two of their rival teams do equally well then the 40 point gap and excellent reliability Alonso has shown will make him the favourite. Only if one of McLaren, Red Bull or Lotus can get a decisive advantage will that cease to be the case, in my view.

The next three races are Spa, Monza and Singapore. The first two are decent fast circuits, the last is a tedious street circuit procession. However, taken together they will hopefully provide a good pointer as to where the teams stand and where they're likely to finish.

Hard and medium tyres will be used for Spa and Monza, with the soft and supersoft planned for Singapore.

The Pirelli tyres of 2012 will not be altered, which is helpful: http://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/86157.html

There has been some doubt raised over the future of the Nurburgring. It sounds as though it may now be safeguarded, but we'll have to wait and see. A quirk of the Nurburgring, where we are due to race next year, is that Vettel is not very quick there: http://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/86068.html

Should the Nurburgring not return then it's thought that Hockenheim, this year's German circuit and the track that habitually alternated with the Nurburgring, will become the full-time German destination for F1.

During the break between Hungary and Spa I put a small sum on Raikkonen to finish top 3 at 3, with Betfair. My thinking is that Alonso has one place sewn up, which leaves 2 out of 3 top spots. There's just 8 points separating the drivers from Webber to Raikkonen, and two of them are near certain to get in the top 3 at the season's end. So, odds of 3 (or 2/1 in old money) seem reasonable.

Morris Dancer

Hungary: post-race analysis

The race was not all that exciting, but somehow turned out to be profitable. I only checked Betfair for the sake of certainty, but it turned out that the 3 hedge against Grosjean got matched, which I found really surprising. Anyway, for the race hedging was obviously better, and over the course of the weekend it was about one stake better than not doing so.

There was an incident even before the race started when Schumacher stalled his car on the grid. This meant we had a second formation lap whilst the veteran driver went to the pit lane, from whence he would join the back of the pack when the race actually started.

It was initially formation flying. Vettel tried to pass Grosjean but failed and this left him vulnerable to an early pass by Button. Somewhat surprisingly Grosjean managed to keep pace (with a 2.5 second gap, give or take) to Hamilton in this phase of the race.

Webber, who not so long ago had a tendency to leave the handbrake on when starting, had a great getaway and was up to around 7-8th after the first lap.

Things were looking quite good for both Grosjean and McLaren generally (running first and third as they were). However, after Button's pit stop he got stuck behind Senna for a prolonged period. Hungary is a bit rubbish in that overtaking is too difficult, and this allowed Vettel and Webber to easily pass Button during the pit stops.

After the first stops Grosjean was very fast, easily hauling in Hamilton, yet could not get past him. A few over-eager mistakes meant he dropped back slightly, and he never had a serious chance to take the net lead (he did lead, I think, for a time but only due to a difference in the number of pit stops).

However, Raikkonen was greatly aided by a strategic blinder his team played. The Finn found himself in clear air and used this to full advantage, putting in fast lap after fast lap. When he pitted and emerged he was (just) ahead of Grosjean. He was also able to close to Hamilton, but, like his French team mate, found himself entirely unable to actually pass him.

An item of interest was when Vettel, whilst stuck behind Button earlier in the race, got on the radio and basically stamped his foot and demanded the team did something to help him get past the Briton. It sounded rather petulant, to be honest (and I say that as someone who appreciates Vettel's tremendous talent). He ended up fourth.

Alonso will probably be relatively happy with damage limitation in fifth. Because Hamilton's so far back in the title race and Alonso beat Webber (eighth) this actually extends the Spaniard's lead to 40 points (over Webber, who just retains second place).

Worth giving a mention to Senna as well. The Brazilian got a pretty impressive seventh, although his team mate got a drive-through penalty for hitting a Force India and ended up 13th.

It was another day to forget for Schumacher. He must have retired from about seven of the 11 races to date. He stalled on the grid and then had a drive-through for speeding in the pit lane and then had to retire for uncertain reasons.

I've got to say that I think getting that hedge matched was really very lucky. Grosjean did have better speed, I feel, than Hamilton overall (as did Raikkonen) but his lack of experience and judgement led to small mistakes and I underestimated just how hard overtaking would be at Hungary. I'm pretty happy the race ended up green, even if it was a fluke.

Thanks to Messrs Nigel and Putney for each offering an early green line tip. Although neither came off it is worth pointing out that both were at long odds (30/1 and 8/1 respectively).

Going into the long mid-season break the drivers' standings are as follows:

Alonso 164

Webber 124

Vettel 122

Hamilton 117

Raikkonen 116

The long break to Spa will almost certainly see the pack shuffled a bit, but a 40 point lead with four closely matched competitors behind him is a pretty solid position for Alonso. He also has the strategic advantage of being the clear number one driver at Ferrari, whereas that isn't the way McLaren and Red Bull do things. (Well, Red Bull sometimes does, but Webber ignores them).

Alonso's barely over evens, which I think is about right (maybe a tiny bit short). Vettel's 4, Hamilton 7.4 and Webber 14.5, which is too long. Interestingly, Raikkonen's down to 16. If I hadn't already bet on the market quite a bit I'd probably go for Webber and maybe Hamilton, with the intention of hedging later.

I'll be writing a second mid-season review, focusing on the driver/team situations and how I think they might do in the latter half of 2012, between now and Spa. Not sure how long I'll leave it but it'll probably be in the next week or two. The next Grand Prix begins on 31 August.

Morris Dancer

Hungary: pre-race

We had an unusually clear-cut qualifying session today. Hamilton looked top dog in practice and never really seemed like he'd fail to get pole. Happily, he got it and the tip came off. Naturally, it was better not to lay.

In Q1 Red Bull cut it fine but both cars just about managed to escape. The pointless teams departed, as did Ricciardo.

Q2 saw Sauber continue their strangely poor qualifying, with Perez 13th and Kobayashi 14th. Webber only got 11th, but that might prove slightly advantageous regarding tyres in the race (it remains uncertain whether the soft or medium tyre will be better in the race. Last week Red Bull struggled with the medium, and although Hungary will probably [see below] be hotter they still seem to have problems). Neither Mercedes escaped, with Rosberg 13th and Schumacher a poor 17th.

We've grown accustomed to Q3 being very tense and competitive, but today it wasn't, really. Hamilton got pole and was a mighty four-tenths faster than Grosjean, who got a stellar second. Vettel managed third and Button should be pleased with fourth. Raikkonen got fifth, making the session a great one for Lotus. Alonso just about led Massa (they're sixth and seventh respectively), dodgems star Maldonado got eighth, Senna will be happy with ninth and Hulkenberg got 10th.

So, a fantastic qualifying for McLaren and Lotus, and an impressive showing from Williams as well. Red Bull will be disappointed overall and I think Ferrari will be hoping to limit the damage tomorrow.

The weather forecast has improved over the week, but rain is still possible during the race. I think the odds are it won't happen, but it certainly wouldn't be a shock.

On pace, Hamilton looks unbeatable. Worryingly for his rivals, he's almost as good on medium tyres as on the soft (unlike Red Bull who seem to be struggling with the medium, as per last week in Hockenheim). Agent Neil of the PB2 Intelligence Corps has suggested that Red Bull might also be suffering from a device the team used in pit stops to adjust suspension in-race being banned.

Lotus also looked very tasty on long runs, and they tend not to chew up tyres as much as other teams. Mercedes seem to still have tyre wear issues (last race, thankfully, Schumacher had to pit once more than the Saubers which gifted Perez sixth).

It's also worth bearing in mind that Hungary is not an easy circuit to overtake on. I do expect some shuffling of the order but it won't be as thoroughly jiggled as other races this year. Unless, perhaps, it rains.

I've decided to back Grosjean to win at 8.2, with a hedge set up at 3. Whilst I agree with the market that Hamilton is the favourite by a distance more than 7/1 for the second on the grid is a bit mad. Given Hamilton's only 1.35 to lead lap 1 (he had a bad start in Hockenheim) then 'all' Grosjean has to do is pass him off the line and the hedge will probably get matched.

Vettel is less of a threat than he might be, I think, due to the Red Bull finding medium tyres tricky, and he'll probably have fun trying to keep Button and Raikkonen behind him. The loss of the engine mapping and possible loss of suspension adjustment in-race may not be significant but they won't help either.

A bad start, poor strategy/stops, heavier tyre wear than the Lotus or rain could imperil Hamilton's hopes. I do think he is the favourite for the win but the odds on Grosjean are just too long and he showed in Valencia (until reliability failed him) that he's got the speed and composure to compete for victory.

Let's hope the race is thrilling, and profitable.

Morris Dancer

Hungary: pre-qualifying

And so we move to the eleventh of twenty races, and the last before a long break to Spa.

The soft and medium (same as in Germany) tyres have been brought to the race, but it's expected to be much hotter. The circuit isn't used much the rest of the year so takes a while to rubber in, meaning that the P1 times are not that representative of true pace.

P1 was McLarentastic and had Hamilton lead Button at the sharp end. They were followed by Alonso, then Rosberg, Grosjean and Schumacher. Massa was seventh, and Raikkonen, Bottas (Williams test driver) and Perez rounded out the top 10.

P2 started off dry but then the rain tipped down and caught out a few drivers. Hamilton was again fastest and was followed by Raikkonen, Senna and Massa. Alonso was not faster than Massa (as he was fifth), and Button, Di Resta, Vettel, Grosjean and Schumacher (who crashed after aquaplaning in the wet) finish off the top 10.

P3 was also dry. Webber was fastest, then Hamilton and Vettel, followed by Senna, Alonso and Raikkonen. Grosjean, Massa, Di Resta and Maldonado finish the top 10.

Qualifying is forecast to be dry (the race may not be). There were a wide array of bets on all three main qualifying markets (fastest, to reach Q3 and to be top 3) I looked at. However, for most there was not enough liquidity and/or the odds were displeasing.

In the end I backed a single bet: Hamilton to be fastest in Q3 at 2.96 (hedged at 1.4). Whilst not quite fastest in P3 he was in P1 and P2 and would have been faster in P3 but for a mistake. So, the driver and car have the pace, and I think he'll be brimming with confidence after seeing the car's fresh potential in Hockenheim.

Remember: if you want to offer tips in the comments I'll add these to my records and see how they do compared to my own. [Obviously offering tips is not necessary to post comments and if you want to opt-out just say so and I won't record them]. Please remember to indicate not just the bet but whether it's with Betfair or not so that I know whether to subtract 5% from any profits.

Morris Dancer

2012 Mid-season Review Part 1

We're exactly halfway through the season, with 10 races come and gone and 10 races ahead. Part 1 of the review will mostly look back at what's already happened, and consider how well or badly the betting's gone.

At the start of the season it was quite clear. McLaren had the best car in qualifying and in the race. Red Bull were second, Ferrari had a dog and Lotus and Sauber were more competitive than expected.

But this did not last very long. Possibly due to their atypical solution to the rule changes (having a pretty nose rather than a kinky one) McLaren have not done so well in developing their car as might be expected. Red Bull have done well and improved an already good car, but Ferrari have done the best job. Their car at the start of the season was barely a midfield competitor but now, whilst perhaps not quite as swift as the Red Bull and maybe the McLaren, it can at least compete at the sharp end. It's also tasty in all conditions, unlike the McLaren which hates very wet conditions.

Sauber, Lotus, Mercedes and Williams are all still doing fairly well, the first two teams especially. Mercedes seem to be a little further back, doing well in qualifying but struggling to maintain that in the race (the anti-Sauber, if you like).

Anyway, to the betting.

Perhaps surprisingly the Perez tip in Germany was the first winning race tip (without hedging) since Monaco in May. It's also rather counter-intuitive, but true, that the vast majority of profitability for the bet-and-forget numbers comes from qualifying (race bets are green but modestly so). I've only offered qualifying tips at five out of the 10 races to date (this is generally due to P3 being at 2am for Far Eastern races, or if it's very soggy in P3 and qualifying's expected to be dry).

There's a more or less even split of profit between qualifying and race bets for the hedged style of betting. Hedging has been better than not at four races, and less profitable at two. Overall it's better by a clear margin.

Last year, pretty much throughout the season, not hedging was more profitable. That was because, bluntly, I was getting more things right. This year I'm getting some things right but also getting quite a lot of things nearly right, leading to hedges getting matched.

Despite this, and some recent good results in Europe and Germany, I'm still somewhat tentative about betting. The topsy-turvy nature of the season and some recent wet weather has kept me a bit cautious. I think that's a good thing, and hopefully it will keep me on my toes.

I've continued my bad habit of starting a season rubbishly, as the graph clearly shows. However, there's also a general upward trend, which is nice, and I haven't had too many losses since the first part of the season.

Specific markets:

I think that the Q3 market (to reach it and be top 10 prior to penalties) is one of the most interesting. Grosjean was far too short in Germany, and Alonso likewise in Europe.

It's also worth noting that recently big names have even struggled to escape Q1 as they try and make it on prime tyres (Webber, Schumacher and Button have all either exited or nearly exited at that stage recently).

Generally speaking the chap on pole has gone on to win (Alonso is a double exception to this, in both ways, and Hamilton has also failed to convert his poles to wins yet won from further back in Canada).

Further down there has been a lot of churning in the order from grid to flag. I mentioned Sauber further up. They've been qualifying poorly lately, but they've had good race pace. Mercedes are somewhat the opposite. Podium and Top 6 markets have potential, and I quite like them.

I think hedging generally makes sense. As well as being cautious by nature anyway, F1 (especially this year) is especially prone to sudden changes in fortune.

Regarding the titles, my bet on Lotus to get the Constructors' now looks as silly as a morris dancer without a wiffle stick but the Drivers' is looking a little better. For modest sums I'm ahead if Alonso or any Red Bull/McLaren driver wins.

Given the unpredictable nature of the sport this year I'm reasonably satisfied with the season to date. Whether the latter half is better, worse, or broadly the same remains to be seen.

The next race:

Looking ahead to Hungary, which is this weekend, No Safety Car (assuming there's no rain) is a likely bet. The circuit has the lowest incidence of safety cars on the calendar. I remember reading that the track's all about front-end grip, so this may especially help Mercedes and Lotus (assuming the latter's updated DRS system works) in qualifying.

I'd also guess, based on the Germany race, that McLaren will be very competitive and Hamilton might well nab pole. If it's dry, I'd be surprised if Alonso got another pole.

From Hungary (inclusive) I'll be adding a green line to the graph. This green line will be based upon the tips offered in the comments (usually by Mr. Putney and Mr. Nigel, but it's entirely open to others as well). I'll just take a note of the bet, the odds and whether it's with Betfair or not (to account for the 5% commission). I'm not going to take hedged bets, because I think four lines would be a bit excessive.

Obviously most bets are for races or qualifying but if title bets are suggested I'll take a note of those as well. As with my own tips, I'll assume a standard stake of £10.

Morris Dancer

Germany: post-race analysis

Well, that was a tremendously exciting race from start to finish (and beyond) and it even turned out to be profitable. I tipped Perez to be top 6 (he was 6th) at 4 with Ladbrokes, no hedge, but he slipped to 5.9 after getting a five place grid penalty and starting in seventeenth position.

The start was exciting but rather hard to follow on the radio. Numerous cars had problems (Hamilton got a puncture and numerous others parted ways with the circuit) but nobody retired. The top few cars stayed in formation and Hamilton limped a long way back to the pits.

Perez, happily, was having a very nice time of things, and was soon up to about 12th, and Button was also having a better performance than has recently been the case. Webber seemed strangely off the pace. He wasn't going backwards, he was just stuck and unable to really make much progress.

The Force Indias, having had a great qualifying, then drifted inexorably backwards and in the end Hulkenberg just got into the points in 9th and di Resta just missed out in 11th. Rosberg had a pretty good race to finish 10th having started very near the back, and Schumacher came 7th, (better tyre wear might have seen him hold 5th, as he pitted late on).

At the sharp end Button was picking off those ahead of him one by one until he was third and closing with Alonso and Vettel, who were very close. After the final pit stops Button was just ahead of Vettel and challenged the Spaniard for the lead but he just couldn't get ahead of Alonso. Then Alonso pulled a small gap and Vettel closed up to Button. Very near the end of the race Vettel passed Button, but he was off the track when he did so and it may well be investigated and penalised by the stewards (we'll see if he gets a penalty, unlike the engine mapping shenanigans of Red Bull which went unpunished).

Raikkonen got a solid but unspectacular 4th and Sauber will be delighted with an impressive 5th and 6th, which is especially good as their drivers started about 12th and 17th. If they could sort out qualifying they might be in a position to contend for more podiums.

Massa came a lowly 12th, and Grosjean was only 18th. Hamilton was the sole retirement due to a reliability failing quite late on. It was a pretty rubbish way for a 100th Grand Prix to go.

In the dry the McLaren was perhaps the fastest car of them all, and if not it was not far off. The Saubers were also pretty tasty. Force India were clearly helped by rain in qualifying, and are less competitive in the dry.

Before the race began Red Bull were being investigated for possibly illegal engine mapping. The FIA apparently called the mapping illegal but stated that the rules were too unclear and so the team got no penalty.

The contentious nature of Vettel's late overtake will probably be investigated, and we'll see what happens (or not).

The good news for McLaren is that, in the dry, their car is now very sharp. The bad news is that reliability in the race and rain in qualifying cost them this time and there's just one more race before a prolonged break.

The Perez tip was probably half down to good judgement and half down to luck. I never would've backed him (even at 5.9) to be top 6 from 17th on the grid. Really quite pleased with how this weekend's gone, both in terms of entertainment and betting.

Hungary is just next weekend, but I will be writing a mid-season review part 1 (looking especially at what's happened so far and the betting aspect of things) during the week [assuming I can actually sort out my records, which have suddenly grown a strange discrepancy]. After Hungary, during a long break, I'll write part 2 of the review, with an eye on the last nine races of the season.

From Hungary onwards I'll be adding 'green line' tips to my records, with such tips being the ones offered by my esteemed commenters.

Morris Dancer

Germany: pre-race

Qualifying was as exciting as usual, and unusually profitable. Alonso got the fastest time ahead of Webber, and I'm pretty happy with that because I was ambivalent about the tip and bet. As an added bonus, the tiny sum I managed to get on Grosjean not reaching Q3 (laid at 1.23) also came off.

The first qualifying session has actually become quite interesting of late, and this was no exception. Webber was in trouble for a while, and so was Schumacher, who just about escaped an ignominious exit. As it happened, Vergne joined the pointless teams.

The first session was pretty much dry but the second saw rather a lot of rain which intensified towards the end of the session and made it all but impossible for those then outside the top 10 to progress. Although both Saubers failed to reach Q3 they did qualify towards the top end of Q2 in 12th and 13th, and Ricciardo starts from an impressive 11th. Massa will be disappointed to be out in 14th and Grosjean really struggled, ending up 15th. Perhaps the biggest disappointment was Rosberg, who finished a measly 17th.

Q3 started very wet, so much so that even on full wets there was quite a lot of aqua-planing and off-track excursions. However, the track did improve towards the latter end of the session which meant the order at the sharp end kept changing. Alonso made a call late on to return to the pits and stick on some new wets, which proved as cunning as a fox who has recently acquired a doctorate in cunning.

The Spaniard got his second pole in a row, and second fastest was Vettel, followed by Webber. However, the Aussie will start further down the grid because of his five place grid penalty for changing his gearbox (which also affects Grosjean and Rosberg). Schumacher, whose team mate was 17th and who barely escaped Q1, got 4th and Hulkenberg did tremendously well to get 5th. He was followed by Venezuelan traffic offender Maldonado, Button, Hamilton (out-qualified by Button for the first time this year), di Resta and Raikkonen, who really struggled in the wet.

The race tomorrow is, however, expected to be dry. Hamilton, Perez and Raikkonen are all probably out of position regarding grid slot and pace (and Webber, but that's due to a penalty). I'd expect it to be an Alonso/Vettel duel for victory, but Schumacher and Maldonado (starting 3rd and 5th) cannot be written off entirely. I think Hulkenberg, who starts 4th, may well end up going backwards, and I'd be unsurprised if Schumacher did likewise. Maldonado's fast but rather too prone to crashing.

The circuit is one where overtaking is eminently possible, so grid slots, whilst important, are not the be all and end all.

I expect the victory to be an Alonso-Vettel duel, although there is an off-chance Schumacher or Maldonado might be surprisingly fast. That makes the winner and podium markets a bit tricky.

I've decided to back Perez at 4, with Ladbrokes, to finish in the top 6. My reasoning is that he was very fast in the partly dry P1 and entirely dry P3 and his race pace has consistently been much better than his qualifying. Decided against hedging.

Hopefully the race will be dry, entertaining and profitable.

Morris Dancer