The Return of the King II: Return Harder

Yes, yes, I was going to wait until the full driver line up was announced, but I doubt there’ll be much big news as we already have Schumacher for Mercedes, Button for McLaren and Senna for Campos.

In this article I’m going to examine the drivers who can hope for a tilt at the title. The next one (due sometime before February when testing starts) will cover rule changes, notably no more refuelling and an altered points system.

What’s interesting about 2010 is that there is a large range of genuine contenders, from a number of different teams. From McLaren Button will hope to retain and Hamilton to take the prize, Schumacher from Mercedes is a strong prospect, both Alonso and Massa could do it, and Vettel from Red Bull is a great driver.

In F1, the car does matter more than the driver. But the driver can, and does, make the critical difference when cars are identical or evenly matched. It pays not to neglect either one. Red Bull suffered some reliability issues with Vettel (his engine kept exploding) and I warned against backing a seemingly strongly placed Kovalainen because although his car was in a great position he never fails to underwhelm in a race. [All prices in the bit below are on Betfair at the time of writing].

First up, McLaren. Hamilton is favourite at 4.2 and Button is 5th favourite at 11. Hamilton is a better driver, I believe, by some distance, plus he’s been at McLaren since he was a toddler and he’s already had two great seasons and even the last, which began poorly, ended well. Button is a good driver, but his six Brawn victories were delivered by a car that was both ideally suited to his silky smooth driving style (a stark contrast with Hamilton’s) and streets ahead of everything else, slightly excepting the Red Bull. We’ll have to wait and see how testing goes, but if Hamilton doesn’t win it, I can’t see his team mate doing so.

Secondly, Ferrari. Alonso is second favourite at 5, and Massa is 6th favourite at 15.5. To me, those odds are wrong. Massa may be slightly inferior to Alonso (I’m not so sure, actually) but he is not more than three times less likely to win, unless last season’s crash did lasting damage. Alonso is very reliable and very quick, but he’s also an arsehead so Massa may not play as rear-gunner or a willing number two if asked to. These two are probably the most evenly matched driving pair of the top teams.

Thirdly, Mercedes, née Brawn. I bet Nico Rosberg is pissed off. I had him down as a reasonable contender, with true race pace unknown but a pretty good chance if Mercedes start as brilliantly as Brawn did (apparently Brawn/Mercedes did sod all development during 2009 meaning they’ve done tons for 2010, boding well for the German outfit). However, some say his team mate is the best racing driver of all time, and that as you get closer to him in the race for the title the odds on being coincidentally rammed off the track increase. Schumacher didn’t return last season due to his neck injury, so he must be pretty sure it’s healed. He’ll not only be a great driver (probably), but he’ll aid development of the car a lot and obviously has great personal chemistry with Ross Brawn, engineering genius and team leader. Schumacher is 6.4 and Rosberg is 17.5. I think Schumacher should be second or joint favourite, ahead of Alonso. I suspect the Mercedes may be the best car in testing, but that’s just a hunch.

Fourthly, Red Bull. Vettel’s 7.8, Webber’s 26. I think Vettel’s a shade long perhaps but Webber (who I consider middle of the pack, similar to Coulthard but more obnoxious) is about right. Vettel had the best qualifying record last season, which could prove handy this time as with no refuelling qualifying will grow in importance. However, he was as reliable as a Frenchman in a war, making some critical schoolboy errors or suffering mechanical failure or just bad luck (at Interlagos during qualifying, namely). The Red Bull is powered by Renault, entirely because the team has full confidence in the engines of Renault, and not in any way because they left it too late to get a Mercedes engine. I think Vettel’s a top driver, second only to Schumacher, but his reliability issues (both personal and mechanical) need sorting.

In order, the top drivers in my eyes are:
Schumacher
Vettel
Hamilton
Alonso
Massa
Button
Rosberg
Webber

I can offer this early pre-season tip: wait until testing before putting money on anybody. Having an idea of driving talent is useful but the car does matter more. The people I’ll be keeping an eye on most of all are Vettel and Massa. They both stand decent shots (assuming their teams have sorted their cars nicely) but are longish, Massa especially.

Before 1 February (when testing commences) I’ll write a probably much briefer article about rule changes, and then the remaining pre-season articles (I intend to do at least one about who to back for the Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles) will focus upon testing results.

Anyway, the first race is on 14 March in Bahrain, the first of 19 races. Hopefully I’ll have the same luck I had for most of last season when it comes to race predictions.

Morris Dancer

Best constituency prices (December edition)

I've updated my tables of best constituency betting prices. The technology proved as tough as gathering the detail (my thanks to Rod Crosby and wibbler for directing me to google docs to help sort this out). Google docs moaned at the size of the tables, so I have split into two, A-M here:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ASgi8eZw-4q1ZGRkcXR2ZmdfMmZndHJ6a2hr&hl=en

and N-Z here:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ASgi8eZw-4q1ZGRkcXR2ZmdfM2Z2ZDRtZ2hq&hl=en

There are bound to be some mistakes in here - please don't shoot the piano player.

I have marked each market that is new since the last time I looked at this in October and each market where the prices have changed since then (some of these changes are minor, some reflect the bookies converging on a single view. Some are more significant).

Some unconnected observations:

1) It's a shame that Victor Chandler appear to have withdrawn from this market.

2) I was surprised at how many markets have moved. Even allowing for the changes that were inevitable after Victor Chandler withdrew, a lot has happened in two months on these markets.

3) William Hill arrange their constituency markets in a manner most calculated to ensure that the casual punter can't find all of them.

4) Most of the bookies (with the honourable exception of Ladbrokes) could do with being introduced to the concept of alphabetical order.

5) Significant price movements are very much constituency-dependent, but as an extremely general trend, the Lib Dem prices have been shortening. Make of that what you will.

antifrank

No more tiers for Labour?

With Norwich at the centre of yet another political storm with the Climategate saga, it’s been a bit frustrating for Bunnco as Your Man on the Spot in Norfolk with the UEA in lock-down mode. Despite a bit of digging, there’s no juicy intel to report on the Climate story that hasn’t already been covered in WattsUpWithThat. But like the proverbial bus you can wait forever and suddenly two stories come along at once so in this article I’m going to write about something that we’d all thought had gone away – Local Government Reorganisation [LGR] in Norfolk, Suffolk & Devon and whether it tells us that Labour really has given up on winning in 2010.

Just when it looked like Labour had nothing to lose and was destined for cataclysmic defeat, the media narrative has changed and they might have something to play for after all. So you’d have thought that Labour strategists would be straining every sinew to protect as many English seats as possible from the Tory onslaught if they’re to be in with a chance.

But what’s this? Plans for local government reorganisation [LGR] in Devon, Suffolk & Norfolk have been reignited by Communities Secretary John Denham following a Court of Appeal ruling this week, which undid an earlier block to the process from the High Court dating back to July.

Normally this sort of thing would only be of interest to local political anoraks and readers of the Municipal Journal but over on the main site, Mike included the following paragraph in his post this evening,

“Among the other cabinet members who might be at risk I’ve noticed that Ben Bradshaw’s Exeter seat is more marginal with Thrasher and Rallings than with Anthony Wells. “

That’s right, Exeter is in Devon. So you’d have thought that it would be careless to say the least for Denham to knowingly jeopardise the risk of re-election for fellow top-table colleague, Ben Brashaw by pressing-on with yet another expensive and unnecessary public sector reorganisation in Devon if he could avoid it.

And that’s no mere assertion. There’s evidence for this. Cast your mind back to July and the Norwich North By Election, where Chloe Smith took the seat when Labour’s Ian Gibson stepped down over the expenses crisis.

But new baby-of-the-house Chloe Smith didn’t just win the seat from Labour by a whisker. The margin was 39.44% to Labour’s 18.12%. What local factors caused such a wide margin and a disproportionate swing from a previous Labour stronghold?

As Bunnco reported at the time, whilst the expenses backdrop and anti-politician narrative was strong, the leaflet that really drove the Tory vote in the final week was one that highlighted the council reorganisation issue. With a failing Labour Norwich City Council on the rack over a series of housing scandals, voters were galvanised to Vote Tory to save Broadland Council in the leafy suburbs, where MORI polling had shown a remarkable 94% satisfaction rating and district-council tax about half that paid in the Norwich City area. The Tories made it clear they’d cancel any Council reorganisation and reaped the votes accordingly, squeezing the LibDems in the process.

So, as a local voting factor, getting rid of local Councils in favour of so called Unitary versions is not exactly what you’d call a vote winner. In Norfolk, MORI polling confirmed a previous YouGov survey – LGR was rejected by voters by a margin of two-to-one. In Cornwall, the Tories romped home by a landslide in the June Elections. The former Labour strongholds in Northumberland are now led by a LibDem and the Tories have a stranglehold on other recently created Unitaries in Cheshire and Bedfordshire. In Devon itself, the Tories romped home last June as well. Unitary is electorally toxic for Labour.

In his post this evening, Mike’s identified Ben Bradshaw’s Devon seat as increasingly vulnerable and over in Norfolk, Norwich South is held by Charles Clarke, Great Yarmouth by Tony Wright, Lowestoft by Bob Blizzard and Ipswich by Chris Mowle. That’s five English Labour Seats that Labour really needs to hold if it’s to be in the running come Election Day.

Given the proximity of the election and the crowded Parliamentary timetable, Denham would have been forgiven for kicking the botched process into the long grass. After all, the hapless Boundary Committee had mishandled the sifting of the various options so badly that it had got nowhere after nearly three years of trying. He could have blamed it on the incompetent Boundary Committee, which he is abolishing in March anyway.

So why pick an unnecessary fight on five colleagues now with three months to go? It just doesn’t make political sense.

The LGR process was the brainchild of Hazel Blears during her time as Chairman of the Labour Party and later as Communities Secretary herself. Forget talk of council reorganisation leading to increased efficiencies and better accountability in local government, the motivation of the diminutive chipmunk-like Blears was quite simply to reduce the number of Tory councillors in the shires. Let’s do the maths. On my home-patch there are 420 Councillors in Norfolk of which about 300 are Tory. If the district and county councils were replaced with a single monster council with about 80 councillors, then the Tories might be deprived of 250 activists and organisers for the General Election.

So you can see the crude political logic for Labour but the figures on which the proposals are based are now three years old and the local government financial landscape has changed dramatically since the heady days in early 2007 when it seemed such a wizard wheeze. The savings from recent unitary conversions in Northumberland, Cheshire and Cornwall have failed to materialise and creating a new class of professional ‘Unitary’ Politician on bumper salaries isn’t exactly in tune with the public mood either.

Caroline Spelman and Bob Neill [Shadow Local Government minister] reassured their own activists this week that an incoming Tory Government would reverse the move if Labour managed to get the secondary legislation required through Parliament when the near-two-month delay for consultation that starts on Tuesday has elapsed.

There are very few Parliamentary sitting days between now and Easter and with plans to reform the House of Lords as well as a number of other scorched-earth policies to enact, it’s a surprise that business-managers have let the LGR issue to slip through the net to compete with more mainstream issues, especially with rumours of a March 25th election reaching fever pitch.

So the lesson from this little story is that either Labour is masochistic and willing to damage the re-election chances of 5 MPs south of the border, including 3 big-hitters, or they really have written-off the election and are pursuing a scorched-earth policy in three counties where, otherwise they have nothing to lose. Perhaps, for all the bluster, they are resigned to defeat after all.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

The Welsh Marginals - part 3

We now come to southern Wales, but first a quick catch-up on the news, with Carwyn Jones being elected leader of the Welsh Labour Party. The new broom is already at work, it seems, today sacking the Finance Minister by press release. It's hard to say what impact the change of leadership will have on Labour's general election prospects; negligible either way I'd guess.

This is a region where there are a number of safe seats not really worth discussing in depth. Cardiff Central is a nailed-on cert for the Lib Dems and, for reasons best known to themselves, the people of Monmouth will continue to elect David Davies. Also, despite Labour's current predicament, there are seats they will not lose in an election where turnout will be reasonable, they can motivate their core vote with the prospect of an impending Tory government, and opposition parties' resources will be focused elsewhere. While Plaid in particular, and in one or two cases the Lib Dems, will be building here with one eye on the 2011 Assembly elections, in the 'safe' category I'd place Swansea East, Neath, Aberavon, Cynon Valley, Ogmore, Rhondda, Merthyr, Pontypridd, Islwyn, Caerphilly and Torfaen. Despite some iffy local election results (notably in Torfaen and Caerphilly) they'll stay red this time barring a game-changing event; the sort of game changing event outlined by the BBC's Betsan Powys:

"An extremely switched on Labour man whispered in my ear the other night that three prominent valleys MPs are planning to stand down at the General Election but are yet to say so. The same little bird made the point that when they go, there 'ought to be' all women shortlists in their constituencies. The thought of the mayhem that would cause brought tears to his eyes. He was laughing - at least I think he was."

Hm, that would be interesting. And how about we start the rundown of the marginals with...

Blaenau Gwent
I haven't a clue what will happen here. People's Voice are by no means a formidable campaigning machine, but people might just have got into the habit of seeing them as the 'real Labour party', and the official lot show no signs of ending their internal feuding. Mind you, will the prospect of a Conservative government change the dynamics? I'll predict this as a Labour gain, just for fun, but that's based on no info whatsoever.

Bridgend
The constituency of Carwyn Jones. Labour have a 17% majority here, and recent polls have this as a Conservative gain. Also in the Tories' favour is the Lib Dems' recent problems (many of their councillors have left) so their 8,000 votes may be squeezable. I'm not convinced, though. There are boundary changes, which although small are entirely unhelpful to the Conservatives. Labour also rebounded quite well in the 08 council elections suggesting that short-term factors depressed their vote in 04-05. I think Labour will hold on.

Cardiff North
The Conservatives have won this seat comfortably at every level since 2005. If Julie Morgan stands, Labour will lose. If she joins husband Rhodri in retirement, Labour will be hammered.

Cardiff South & Penarth
Demographic change, along with boundary changes which transfer Sully from the Vale of Glamorgan, make this seat vulnerable. Labour have the advantage that Alun Michael has high name-recognition, but they'll still be praying like crazy that the Lib Dems take this seat seriously (it is something of a long-term target for them) and take votes from the Tories. I have this one marked down, though, as somewhere which could swing by more than the average. A lot depends on whether Labour decide to invest in holding the marginals, or avoiding a rout and placing their 'Gustav Line' in seats like this. If they take resources out of places like Cardiff North and the Vale, they should hold Cardiff South. If they neglect it, watch out.

Cardiff West
Ditto Cardiff West. Again there are minor boundary changes which hinder Labour. There are interesting 4-party dynamics. After investing heavily in 2007 for little reward, it's rumoured that the Lib Dems aren't really targetting Cardiff West any more. Plaid, however, have 7 councillors here due to demographic change and Focus-type campaigning. Labour will no doubt try to persuade Plaid supporters to vote tactically to keep out the Conservatives, while also motivating their white working-class vote in Canton and Ely. I have Labour holding on by their fingernails. They've been phone-canvassing quite heavily, so we know at least that they're taking the threat seriously.

Gower
I'm having difficulty getting my head around the notion of Gower as a Tory target. But the recent polls are pointing that way, and it's got all the ingredients: a candidate who's fought it before and done well at the Assembly election, a third party vote for the tories to squeeze as the Lib Dems concentrate on Swansea, Labour also fighting on a different front in neighbouring Llanelli, demographic change. This goes against every historical instinct in my body, but go on then. Conservative gain.

Newport East
A seat the Lib Dems nearly took at the Assembly on a low turnout. They did come second (just) in '05, which is good bar-chart material, but I suspect it's too big an ask for them in this election. What could happen, though, is both the Lib Dem and Conservative vote increases, making this a 3-way marginal and an interesting betting opportunity. The Tories though will surely be targeting resources elsewhere, which brings us to...

Newport West
Many Conservatives are quite excited about the prospect of overturning Paul Flynn's 15 % majority. Labour face the challenge of fighting on two fronts in Newport, but I think Flynn's back-bench maverick persona will be an asset in this election. It won't be comfortable, but for me this is a Labour hold.

Swansea West
I think this is a much better prospect for the Lib Dems. The Labour majority is only 12.9%, and father of the house Alan Williams is standing down to be replaced as candidate by former Croydon Central MP Geraint Davies. The Lib Dems face challenges - the tuition fees issue won't resonate as much this time around with Swansea's students, and the guy who wore the yellow rosette last time will be wearing a blue one in 2010. But the Lib Dems' local election results are good, and they'll be throwing the kitchen sink at it. Lib Dem gain.

Vale of Glamorgan
Labour held on by less than 100 in the Assembly elections and John Smith is retiring. In boundary changes, the loss of tory-leaning Sully to Cardiff South is compensated for by gaining St. Bride's and Ewenny from Bridgend. Conservative candidate Alun Cairns may have the air of an overly-keen office boy on his first day at a firm of solicitors, but he's a solid campaigner and has been an AM for ten years. Should be a comfortable Conservative gain.

To summarise the overall picture, therefore, and for people to mock me when I get it wrong, currently I have:
Likely Labour - Swansea East, Neath, Aberavon, Ogmore, Cynon Valley, Rhondda, Merthyr, Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Islwyn, Torfaen (11)
Leaning Labour - Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Wrexham, Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff West, Blaenau Gwent (7)
Likely Conservative - Clwyd West, Preseli, Monmouth, Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Carmarthen West & South Pembs (7)
Leaning Conservative - Gower, Delyn, Montgomery (3)
Likely Plaid - Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Carmarthen East, Arfon (3)
Leaning Plaid - Ceredigion, Ynys Mon (2)
Likely Lib Dem - Cardiff Central (1)
Leaning Lib Dem - Brecon & Radnor, Swansea West (2)
And there are 4 where I'm sitting on the fence and saying 'too close to call' - Cardiff South, Clwyd South, Aberconwy and Llanelli.

F1 tips: factors, successes and mistakes

There is a big rule change coming in the 2010 season, namely that there will be no refuelling. This will prove challenging for me as my main approach to betting on the sport was based on fuel loads.

As there’s some time (about three and a half months) between now and the next season I thought it’d be useful to go over what factors I considered when making bets, why some long shots came in and what preventable mistakes I made.

Firstly, factors. Number one was fuel load, but that’s not an issue next season, nor is KERS, which I rather liked. Temperature is another very important one. Different cars and different drivers find it easier or harder to get their tyres up to speed. Not enough heat and you lose grip, which isn’t handy when you’re going at 180mph. However, too much heat and you ruin your tyres, losing grip and possibly needing a new set. Barrichello is good at managing his tyres. Button is silky smooth, so he’ll never shred them, but during the latter half of the season he really struggled to get any temperature into them. By contrast Hamilton is a ragged edge driver, which means he’s prone to punctures. It’ll be fun to see if McLaren’s new car will be able to accommodate the utterly different nature of their drivers in this regard.

Next up is the fact that the gap between the teams last season was small enough that at different circuits any one of about four teams (Ferrari, McLaren, Brawn and Red Bull) had a chance of victory, and even Force India came from nowhere to get a second place. Favourites are often overrated, creating value lower down the grid. However, this may be trickier next year due to the lack of fuel stops.

For next season, overtaking ability will prove crucial. Hamilton is a good overtaker, and Button and Vettel are also. I believe that the double-diffuser that gave Brawn such an advantage in speed had a secondary, less remarked upon, bonus which was that it made the air behind it dirtier (ie slowed down cars that got very close behind), making overtaking them harder. I think that they’ve altered the aerodynamic rules somewhat to try and prevent that in 2010.

Last one is obvious, but worth mentioning: driver. I deliberately argued against Kovalainen for the win at one race or another, despite an excellent grid position and five tons of fuel because he simply isn’t a race winner. Whether Rosberg is we’ll find out next season. Alonso’s eminently reliable, Vettel can sometimes put in a Schumacheresque performance and was the most consistent qualifier (more important in 2010 than 2009). Hamilton can overtake, and is very fast. These three are the best in my view, with Rosberg a possible contender, Webber an also-ran and Button unlikely, in my view, to retain his crown.

Also, Bruno Senna will be racing in 2010. Word is he’s not too bad a driver.

Now, successes:
My 70/1 Button tip (which I didn’t back myself) might look brilliant (and it was), but it was also more obvious than a transvestite with a beard. I just checked the pre-season time trial stats. The Brawn was fast as hell. Simple as that.

Monza was nice, backed both Brawns for podiums (podia?) at longer than evens, and Barrichello to win at 7/1 (two failed bets as well). This was based simply on them having good fuel and being underrated due to performing badly in previous races. A past race is not guaranteed to be a predictor of a future one, after all.

Mistakes:
I backed Raikonnen at Spa (and he won), but got too attached to the idea of him winning and subsequently backed him too often. Drivers will have peaks and dips in form, and some circuits just won’t suit them. It’s also worth considering whether the car that season will stay in development, or whether they’ve shifted the R&D to the next season’s car.

I also advocate laying bets when possible as in F1 anything can happen (and quite often does). Better safe than sorry.

Hmm, was rather hoping I’d have more insight into long shots that came in and serial mistakes, but I do think those are the only ones lessons can be drawn from. Hopefully the next season’s driver lineup will be known soon, and the full rules as well.

For the record, I’ve put a pittance on Massa at 16/1 (he’s not 4x worse than Alonso who’s about 4/1) and looking for Rosberg at 14/1 to be matched (the Mercedes may be tasty). I intend to make larger bets once more information is known.

Morris Dancer

The Welsh Marginals - part 2

Today - mid and west Wales. This post might be considered a 'tamaid i aros pryd', a tasty morsel to keep us going before we tuck into the marginals of the south. But although there aren't many seats up for grabs here, there are some pretty interesting and unique ones.
As in the north, only a couple can be regarded as truly safe. Despite some unfortunate publicity over expenses, the Conservatives won't be too worried about Preseli Pembrokeshire. Likewise Plaid in East Carmarthenshire. Despite Adam Price's imminent sideways career move, the party has a 'deep bench' here. Those up for the nomination include a former party chairman in Marc Phillips and a future star in Jonathan Edwards. I know this seat has swung Labour against the trend once before (1979) but they have serious candidate problems and you'd be a brave punter to back them.

Brecon & Radnor
A large rural seat that's been marginal for over 20 years. The Lib Dems nearly lost it when Richard Livsey retired, but Roger Williams (despite his own party activists on Lib Dem Voice regularly voting him the party's lowest-profile frontbencher) has built up a decent majority. This seat represents a fairly obvious Conservative target, and they have a credible and experienced candidate in Suzy Davies. But the Lib Dems have decent electoral form here. Their Welsh leader, Kirsty Williams, always gets good majorities in assembly elections, they did pretty well in the last set of council elections, and although they lost here in the Euros the Lib Dems' percentage of the vote was way higher than in Montgomery or Ceredigion. A Tory tidal-wave may see this one fall, but on balance I think the Lib Dems will hold it.

Carmarthen West & South Pembs
The assembly election here was remarkably tight three-way split, resulting in a Conservative gain. In the context of a Westminster election, there's nothing to suggest that the Tories shouldn't be hot favourites, despite some concerns over the Countryside Alliance's influence over the local association. Carmarthen town may have a Tory MP for the first time since the 1860s, and Labour may struggle to hold off Plaid for second.

Ceredigion
There's much I could write about the fascinating LD-Plaid marginal of Ceredigion, but seeing as I'm an activist here I'm sure you'll understand if I keep my thoughts to myself. Just to mention that if you reckon you know how us Cardis are going to vote, there are a wide range of bookmakers ready to offer odds.

Llanelli
Now here's a seat many people will be keeping their eye on. Back in the days of Jim Griffiths this was one of Labour's safest seats in the whole of Britain. Now, Plaid comfortably hold the assembly seat, Labour's local election results have been truly appalling, and they face a credible challenge from Dr. Myfanwy Davies, who many believe to be one of the brightest emerging stars in Welsh politics. So there are many factors pointing in Plaid's direction, but for Labour to lose Llanelli in a high-turnout election would be a big, big deal. The PolHome marginals poll had it - just - staying Labour. Too close to call.

Montgomery
Ah, the adopted home of publicity-shy Lembit Opik. Should a seat with a majority of 7000 really be considered marginal? I hear conflicting reports almost daily. Firstly, let's put one myth to bed. Montomeryshire folk are not the bible-bashing rural puritans that some commentators assume, and generally aren't morally appalled at Lembit. What you might find, though, is that some find his lifestyle rather cringe-inducing in an uncle-dancing-at-a-disco kind of a way. The Conservatives' choice of candidate is what makes this seat really interesting. Glyn Davies may have fought the seat before, but since then he's risen to prominence as an AM highly respected on all sides. Losing his list seat by accident in 2007 enabled him to refocus his energies on unseating Opik. As in many places, the Lib Dems borrow lots of tactical votes here, and it'll be much more difficult to persuade Plaid and Labour voters to back the Lib Dems if the 'Tory bogeyman' is a moderate, pro-devolution conservative like Glyn. Recent electoral form is interesting. In 2007, there were rumours that the Lib Dems were in trouble, but Mick Bates AM held on fairly comfortably. But on the regional list vote (in which Glyn Davies was a candidate) the Conservatives won. 2008 gave further good news for the Tories, with the only 2 council wards staying yellow and 6 new dashes of blue on the map - 3 in the rural north and, more significantly, 3 in Newtown. In 2009 the Lib Dems finished 3rd here in the Euros, although it's true that Euro elections are particularly poor predictors of Lib Dem strength. Last month's YouGov Welsh poll had the Lib Dems doing badly in mid Wales, but how much trust can you really place in those regional sub-samples?
I'm still not wholly convinced by the Conservative challenge here. Will Tory activists flock to support a candidate like Glyn? Will UKIP (who have a decent recent record here) harm Davies's chances? And of course, just the size of that majority. But having sat on the fence in Llanelli I suppose I'd better make a bold prediction here. Erm,, hum,, er,,,
Conservative gain?

By the way, for anyone interested in prospects for the Welsh Labour leadership or for a future referendum on increased assembly powers, there is some new polling data out, which is summarised by Betsan Powys. (it's wise to ignore the comments section on Betsan's blog; it's home to Welsh politics's weirdest wing-nuts)

How will the next general election night be broadcasted?

We all know election nights can be an interesting night for politicos across the world, many including me still remember the interest that was shown by us the general public in the UK in the election night of the Presidential election, it's this mood of watching election nights that has got me thinking.

I know PB ran an election night thread at the last general election, the problem is at the time PB wasn't as popular as it is today and if Mike was to run another thread like that, it just wouldn't give the lurkers to the site the news and info that they need. So what do we do?

How about Mike runs an online radio stream or video stream? We could have a sort of PB politics programme on election night, with call in features, reports from info gathered via twitter, etc. Wouldn't that be a way to really broadcast election night from PB to all the members of the parish and lurkers who spend time over at the site?

How about PB TV? Anything is possible, I personally think we all need to put our thinking caps on and think about a way for the world to see the blogosphere report the election results as they break. Although I like many will be at counts supporting candidates who I will work restlessly to get elected, many PBers don't back a certain political party or will not be backing a candidate, hence them having an easy election day compared to people like myself.

Poll Time

Cinders Shall Go To The Ball

It’s pantomine time in Norfolk and next week sees Cinderella take to the stage at Swanton Morley Village Hall, not far from Swaffham. The publicity blurb promises ‘a few twists’ but I wonder if they’ll have learned a few things from another production that’s just ended a three-week run just down the road.

The South West Norfolk Selection Saga has had the lot in a laugh-a-minute production that’s gripped the nation in the last few weeks.

Elizabeth Truss has taken the leading role as Cinders. But no traditional Panto would be complete without the baddie, Norfolk’s very own Baron Hardup – Sir Jeremy Bagge.

The Ugly Sisters were played by local Party Agent Ian Sherwood and Deputy Chairman, former CCHQ Insider, Hugh Culver who hilariously tripped-up at every opportunity.

Additional comedy material was provided by Tweedle-dum & Tweedle-dee Shaun Lowthorpe and Chris Fisher from the Eastern Daily Press [EDP], who kept prodding and aggravating the chorus line dressed in earthy ‘taliban’ garb when the laughter started to peter-out.

After a intermission caused by the Glasgow North East by-election, all things have to come to a happy ending and in traditional style, Cinder’s own fairy Godmother, Baroness Gillian Shephard, former S W Norfolk MP who lives just a few hundred yards away, appeared in a puff of smoke to wave her magic wand to mark the end of the proceedings. Hurrah, Cinders shall go to the Ball after all! No wonder the theatre producer Cameron [aka Mackintosh?] is happy. He’ll be packing ‘em in for weeks after this show. It’s a winner.

As regular readers will know, there’s been a lot going on in Norfolk Politics this year and as Bunnco – Your Man On The Spot, I hope I’ve been able to put an amusing slant on the serious business of politics. So what lessons have I learned from this?

The Pantomime performed in Swaffham was really just a side-show to a battle between the reformers and traditionalists in the party. And in the battle of wills, it’s Cameron who has been the winner. To have knocked-off the Europe Issue and taken-on the reactionaries and come-out ahead in two short weeks is probably why The Guardian today has begrudgingly recognised that Cameron has what it takes.

As I reported twice during the performance, this issue was never really about Miss Truss or her previous behaviour, the real story was about a monumental foul-up in communications between CCHQ and the local party which became a proxy war between modernisers and traditionalists inflamed by metropolitan types who couldn’t resist lampooning Norfolk with rural stereotypes.

It’s easy to forget that the backdrop for the whole affair was some unguarded comments by Cameron at The Speaker’s Conference last month, when he appeared to give a commitment to All Women Shortlists [AWS], an incendiary issue amongst activists.

The comments were prompted by the realisation that most of the recent candidate adoptions had been predominantly male and there was a desire to achieve a better gender balance amongst PPCs. As the media pack latched onto the issue, CCHQ was trying to get off the hook as the news arrived that Truss had been selected from a mixed shortlist.

If South West Norfolk had choosen a woman of its own free will with over 50% on the first ballot, perhaps the panic over AWS was unnecessary after all. And if she was telegenic and well-connected with the party, well that was a bonus. As I reported at the time – you could hear the champagne corks popping on Millbank.

But in Act Two the scene change was botched as it became clear that someone had been less than frank with the local association. The local association had been somewhat naive in taking official assurances at face value. Following the Mail on Sunday ‘Cameron Cutie’ story, simmering indignation was exacerbated by the excessive secrecy in the candidate short listing, the lack of due-diligence following that and, reportedly a less-than-even-handed set of questions to the candidates at the selection meeting, whilst the regular Chairman, the combative David Hills, was sunning himself on a cruise ship off Hong Kong. The ‘Ugly Sisters’ must surely take the blame here for mishandling the issue on the ground.

At this point, the Association became ham-strung by its own rules, which required two week’s notice of a general meeting of members. The option of re-running the selection as an open primary was vetoed by the Regions Top Tory and in the fortnight’s vacuum, the local party’s hands were tied whilst the blogosphere lined-up to lampoon the locals.

Having been aware of the story in advance but deciding not to run it, the EDP then began to play catch-up in its own back-yard as it made it up for lost-time with a series of alternately positive and negative stories from tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum on the news desk. If the EDP couldn’t organise its editorial line, no wonder the national press were given a free-hand and when old Etonian Sir Jeremy Bagge Bt. popped-up as Baron Hardup complete with turban, the story became irresistible.

On November 7th. I posted a PB2 Article including the following passage.

But as Bunnco – your man on the spot, my view is that this is increasingly seen as a problem, not in Norfolk, but caused by some ham-fisted interference in London. Someone down in the smoke was less than frank with the local association. Today’s revelations [EDP’s reports of Truss’ behaviour in Calder Valley in 2005] suggest that there was central subterfuge and that the local association, and in fairness, Truss have been caught in the resultant cross fire.

Subsequent events have proved that analysis to be spot-on. A cosy arrangement between the metropolitan bloggers and the central press operation had initially deflected public opinion against the Norfolk locals, accusing them of excessive sexual prurience coupled with misogynistic prejudice. Playing to the rural stereotype image makes for good copy but disguised the fact that the root cause of the whole farrago lay in London’s insensitivity to local associations and excessive secrecy over selection procedures.

Perhaps this central truth would have remained obscured had ‘Open Letters’ from Tim Montgomerie on ConHome not inflamed local resistance. I’m reminded of the letter that the Guardian sent to voters in Iowa during the 2004 Presidential Election imploring them to vote for Gore. It backfired spectacularly and might have done in South West Norfolk too had Cameron not had the enormous luck to find himself pitched against fellow Old-Etonian Sir Jeremy Bagge, who played the Village Idiot role to perfection. Who says that Old Etonians have all the sway in party?

Once more, the media narrative moved on. And all the time, Liz Truss was mute as the storm swirled around her, a pawn in a proxy war for the soul of the party. It wasn’t her fault that all the experts fouled-it-up.

You know the rest but what lessons can we learn?

1. Cameron has shown that he was right to stick to his guns. It’s all very well wanting to lead the Country but in order to do that you need to lead your party. And it’s the latter that’s actually a lot more difficult than the former. The South West Norfolk saga has given Cameron the authority he needs to run the Party but by the same token, Cameron has realised that it cannot take the Party from which his mandate flows entirely for granted. There’s been a re-balancing of authority and both sides will want to take the moral high ground but in reality Cameron's the one who's come out on top with a candidate with unrivalled name recognition.

2. Central Office will have learned from this that they need to be less dogmatic about candidate selection. No doubt they’ll still wish to promote some ‘A’-listers but there needs to be smatterings of local candidates mixed-in, if only to show them up in the final selection. He doesn't now need the All Woman Shortlists. The lessons learned centrally will now be used to defuse a smoking timebomb in Central Suffolk and in other constituencies.

3. For the Tories, we’ll see a new ‘dividing line’ against Labour with more Open Primaries to defuse the secrecy problems and to flush-out the Sir Bufton Tuftons. In the coming months, it will be Labour on the back-foot as they impose fixed lists on their own local parties.

4. But most of all, Liz Truss has come through this. A lesser woman would have buckled and gone elsewhere. But she’s stuck her ground. She’s one helluva tough cookie. To have stuck this for two weeks when the entire media has laid-out the details of previous peccadilloes and to maintain the support of her family, shows mental toughness, sheer grit and determination.

Perhaps EDP Political Correspondent was right when he melted last week “If she can survive the next week and a bit, then it strikes me she can get through anything, and my sense is that people will warm to her for doing so. I've seen enough to believe she deserves the chance to be an MP. But what I really wonder is: do the Tories in South West Norfolk deserve her?"”.

What Norfolk needs is a tough voice. Whether they knew it when they selected her two weeks ago, they should do so now. Liz Truss. One to Watch. Oh yes she is.

Bunnco - Your Man on The Spot

Traditional Cinderella Pantomime with a few twists. Written and performed by Estrella Productions Amateur dramatics group. Friday 27th and Saturday 28th November 2009. Doors open 7pm, Curtain up 7.30pm. Swanton Morley Village Hall, Swanton Morley, Nr Dereham Adults £4, Children under 16 £2

2009 Season Review

The 2009 season of Formula One was one of ups and downs, and surprises. The plethora of rule changes allowed three teams (amongst them Brawn) to get the jump on their rivals early on with the double diffuser. Honda rose from the ashes as the aforementioned Brawn and dominated the first half of the season, with Button building up what transpired to be an unassailable lead from the first seven races, six of which he won.

It’s also well worth mentioning the incredible second place Fisichella achieved for Force India at Spa, and the surprising talent of Kobayashi, who took over from Glock for the last two races.

In the second half of the season Hamilton was the best driver, missing out on a decent Yas Marina finish due to a rare reliability failure from his car. This allowed Vettel (who may have won anyway) to easily score a victory, his fourth of the season.

Vettel was both the most and least reliable driver. He’s the only chap who triumphed throughout the season, with wins from China (third race) right through to the final one in Abu Dhabi. He also suffered most from unreliability, partly his fault (he was in a 50/50 needless collision with Kubica in Australia) and partly down to his car (his engines kept exploding). To finish second, 11 points behind Button, was a phenomenal achievement.

Did Button deserve the title? I had my doubts through most of the latter half of the season. However, Brazil’s Interlagos circuit once again provided a fantastic race, and Button seized the opportunity to scythe through the field, finishing 5th having started 14th. Given the enormous pressure Barrichello had put him under by qualifying in pole position that was a great drive by Button, and enough to convince me he deserved the title (and, as you’ll all be aware, the approval of an anonymous internet Morris Dancer is what all F1 drivers truly crave).

Also at Interlagos, Vettel started 16th and finished 4th. His race was ruined by poor qualifying (mostly due to bad luck, he had traffic issues during the optimum time window) and even a brilliant drive couldn’t continue his title hopes.

I feel some measure of pity for Barrichello. His dire luck at his home track continued, and he slipped from 1st to 8th. Earlier in the season a strategic error by Brawn cost him a victory.

This was a very exciting season. We had six race winners, and back-to-back English world champions for the first time ever, and back-to-back British Constructors’ winners. A number of the races, most obviously Spa, Monza and Interlagos, were great to watch.

I really hope Silverstone can host the British GP next year. It would be a travesty if the nation that provides so many of the top class engineers, drivers and fans of the sport were to be denied its rightful place on the F1 calendar.

Anyway, that concludes my brief review of the F1 season. I hope to post a preview of the 2010 season when the driver lineups and rule changes are known, perhaps with the odd tip here and there, if I spot anything of value.

Thanks to all those who took the time to read my fortnightly previews/reviews and who commented on them.

Morris Dancer

Easterross- Scottish Predictions

Following on from the Glasgow North East by-election and the large majority Labour achieved over the SNP, I thought revising earlier predictions might be the order of the day.

In the table below I list all seats fought in 2005, the winner (by-elections since shown as *) and runner-up, winner at Holyrood in 2007 (where possible and if 2 seats both winners) and the Easterross 1^st and 2^nd choice predictions for the General Election.

Constituency Name	2005 Winner	2005 Runner Up	Holyrood 2007	2010 Predicted 1st choice	2010 Predicted 2nd choice
Orkney and Shetland	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Western Isles	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Ross, Skye and Lochaber	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Inverness, Nairn etc	SLD Gain	Lab	SNP Hold	SLD Hold	SNP Gain
Argyll	SLD Hold	Con	SNP Gain	Con Gain	SNP Gain
Moray	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Gordon	SLD Hold	Lab	SNP Gain	SLD Hold	SNP Gain
Banff and Buchan	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	Con Gain
Aberdeen North	Lab Hold	SLD	SNP & Lab Holds	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Aberdeen South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab/ SLD Hold	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Angus	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	Con Gain
Dundee East	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Dundee West	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain	SNP Gain	SNP Gain
Dunfermline and W Fife *	Lab Hold *	SLD	SLD Gain	Lab Hold *	SLD Gain *
Fife North-East	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Perth and N Perthshire	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	Con Gain
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glenrothes *	Lab Hold *	SNP	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Hold	SNP Gain	Lab Hold
Stirling	Lab Hold	Con	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Airdrie and Shotts	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Coatbridge, Chryston etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Cumbernauld etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
East Kilbride etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Falkirk	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain/ Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Motherwell and Wishaw	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Lanark and Hamilton East	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain	SNP Gain	Lab Hold
Glasgow Central	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold/ SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow East *	Lab Hold *	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold *	SNP Gain *
Glasgow North	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Glasgow North- East *	Speak Hold *	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Gain *	Lab Gain *
Glasgow North- West	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow South- West	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Dunbartonshire East	SLD Gain	Lab	Lab Gain	Lab Gain	SLD Hold
Dunbartonshire West	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Renfrewshire East	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold	Con Gain	Lab Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Inverclyde	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayrshire N & Arran	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold/ SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayrshire Central	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	Lab Hold	Con	Lab & Con Holds	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Dumfries & Galloway	Lab Gain	Con	Lab & Con Holds	Con Gain	Con Gain
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc	Con Gain	Lab	Lab Hold	Con Hold	Con Hold
Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold/ Con Gain	Con Gain	SLD Hold
East Lothian	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Edinburgh East	Lab Hold	SLD	SNP Gain/ Lab Hold	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Edinburgh North & Leith	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Edinburgh South	Lab Hold	SLD	SLD Hold	Con Gain	SLD Gain
Edinburgh South- West	Lab Hold	Con	Con Hold	Con Gain	Lab Hold
Edinburgh West	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Linlithgow & East Falkirk	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Livingston *	Lab Hold *	SNP	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Midlothian	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold

Summarising the above, in my first set of likely outcomes we would see Labour 35, Conservative 7, Scottish Liberal Democrat 8 and SNP 9, very much in line with the recent Baxter model summary where polls are Labour 29, SNP 27, Conservative 20 and Scottish Liberal Democrat 15.

In my second set of outcomes, those in which I suggest an alternative winner if not the same party twice, we would see Labour 30, Conservative 8, Scottish Liberal Democrat 9 and SNP 12.