Following on from the Glasgow North East by-election and the large majority Labour achieved over the SNP, I thought revising earlier predictions might be the order of the day.
In the table below I list all seats fought in 2005, the winner (by-elections since shown as *) and runner-up, winner at Holyrood in 2007 (where possible and if 2 seats both winners) and the Easterross 1st and 2nd choice predictions for the General Election.
Constituency Name | 2005 Winner | 2005 Runner Up | Holyrood 2007 | 2010 Predicted 1st choice | 2010 Predicted 2nd choice |
Orkney and Shetland | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | |
Western Isles | SNP Hold | Lab | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | SNP Hold |
SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | ||
Ross, Skye and Lochaber | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | |
SLD Gain | Lab | SNP Hold | SLD Hold | SNP Gain | |
Argyll | SLD Hold | Con | SNP Gain | Con Gain | SNP Gain |
Moray | SNP Hold | Lab | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | SNP Hold |
Gordon | SLD Hold | SNP Gain | SLD Hold | SNP Gain | |
SNP Hold | Con | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | |
SLD Hold | Con | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | Con Gain | |
Lab Hold | SNP & Lab Holds | Lab Hold | SNP Gain | ||
Lab Hold | SLD | Lab/ SLD Hold | Lab Hold | Con Gain | |
Angus | SNP Hold | Con | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | Con Gain |
SNP Hold | Lab | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | |
Lab Hold | SNP | SNP Gain | SNP Gain | SNP Gain | |
Dunfermline and | Lab Hold * | SLD | SLD Gain | Lab Hold * | SLD Gain * |
SLD Hold | Con | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | |
SNP Hold | Con | SNP Hold | SNP Hold | Con Gain | |
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Glenrothes * | Lab Hold * | SNP Gain | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Ochil and | Lab Hold | SNP | SNP Hold | SNP Gain | Lab Hold |
Lab Hold | SNP Gain | Lab Hold | Con Gain | ||
Airdrie and Shotts | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Cumbernauld etc | Lab Hold | SNP | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold |
East Kilbride etc | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold | SNP Gain/ Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lanark and | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold | SNP | SNP Gain | SNP Gain | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold | SNP | Lab Hold/ SNP Gain | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold * | SNP | Lab Hold | Lab Hold * | SNP Gain * | |
Lab Hold | SLD | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | SNP Gain | |
Speak Hold * | SNP | Lab Hold | Lab Gain * | Lab Gain * | |
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Rutherglen and | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Dunbartonshire East | SLD Gain | Lab Gain | Lab Gain | SLD Hold | |
Dunbartonshire West | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Renfrewshire East | Lab Hold | Con | Lab Hold | Con Gain | Lab Hold |
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Inverclyde | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Ayrshire N & Arran | Lab Hold | Lab Hold/ SNP Gain | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Ayrshire Central | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold | Lab & Con Holds | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Dumfries & Galloway | Lab Gain | Lab & Con Holds | Con Gain | Con Gain | |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc | Con Gain | Lab Hold | Con Hold | Con Hold | |
Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc | SLD Hold | SLD Hold/ Con Gain | Con Gain | SLD Hold | |
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | SNP Gain/ Lab Hold | Lab Hold | SNP Gain | ||
Lab Hold | SLD | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Con Gain | |
Lab Hold | SLD | SLD Hold | Con Gain | SLD Gain | |
Lab Hold | Con | Con Hold | Con Gain | Lab Hold | |
SLD Hold | Con | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | SLD Hold | |
Linlithgow & | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | |
Lab Hold * | SNP Gain | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | ||
Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold | Lab Hold |
Summarising the above, in my first set of likely outcomes we would see Labour 35, Conservative 7, Scottish Liberal Democrat 8 and SNP 9, very much in line with the recent Baxter model summary where polls are Labour 29, SNP 27, Conservative 20 and Scottish Liberal Democrat 15.
In my second set of outcomes, those in which I suggest an alternative winner if not the same party twice, we would see Labour 30, Conservative 8, Scottish Liberal Democrat 9 and SNP 12.
6 comments:
Many thanks, Easterross - A very useful summary.
Easterross, I really like the way that you have presented this, because it gives us a great idea of where you have uncertainty about your mainstream prediction. I shall study this at length - as Richard says, many thanks.
Easterross, many thanks. Agree with the comments above, really useful summary, and love the way you have laid out your predictions too.
If only the content of the prediction was as well thought out as the design of the table.
You're not going to see seven seats go to the Conservatives in Scotland. Economy will be a major theme of the election and the Scottish electorate are not sympathetic to previous Conservative economic policies.
SNP GAIN SCOTLAND!
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